AVAV - News and Analysis from Seeking Alpha 'AVAV' Tag RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/avav AeroVironment, Inc. F1Q10 (Qtr End 08/01/09) Earnings Call Transcript http://seekingalpha.com/article/160481-aerovironment-inc-f1q10-qtr-end-08-01-09-earnings-call-transcript?source=feed 160481 AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV)

F1Q10 Earnings Call

September 8, 2009 4:30 pm ET

]]> Wed, 09 Sep 2009 00:35:25 -0400 AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV)

F1Q10 Earnings Call

September 8, 2009 4:30 pm ET


Complete Story »]]> AVAV Ten Big Ideas, Ten Ways to Profit http://seekingalpha.com/article/157065-ten-big-ideas-ten-ways-to-profit?source=feed 157065 Not long ago, I was having a discussion with some friends about real estate when the focus drifted to Cape Cod housing prices, which had plunged in the 2007-2008 real estate collapse. The consensus among the group was that prices would eventually rebound, and that patient owners and investors would come out OK. And that was no surprise. Most people tend to extrapolate the future from the past … and for most of our lives, real estate prices have gone up.

Then up piped my brother-in-law the geologist, commenting, “10,000 years ago Cape Cod wasn’t there and in 10,000 years it’ll be gone again.”

]]> Wed, 19 Aug 2009 11:21:19 -0400 Timothy Lutts Timothy Lutts submits:

Not long ago, I was having a discussion with some friends about real estate when the focus drifted to Cape Cod housing prices, which had plunged in the 2007-2008 real estate collapse. The consensus among the group was that prices would eventually rebound, and that patient owners and investors would come out OK. And that was no surprise. Most people tend to extrapolate the future from the past … and for most of our lives, real estate prices have gone up.

Then up piped my brother-in-law the geologist, commenting, “10,000 years ago Cape Cod wasn’t there and in 10,000 years it’ll be gone again.”


Complete Story »]]> AAPL ACFN AMSC AVAV CPA EJ GMCR MXWL NTY RAX WFMI Timothy Lutts 36 Winners in 2008 That Are Stragglers in 2009 http://seekingalpha.com/article/151431-36-winners-in-2008-that-are-stragglers-in-2009?source=feed 151431

I was looking at a portfolio that I manage and was struck by some of the metrics. While the account is up over 20% YTD (it is balanced 60/40 Stocks and Bonds), the current median equity return YTD for the 14 stocks in the account is -11%. Long story short, I have had a lot of turnover this year and have picked up some stocks, especially in the Healthcare sector, that have lagged over the past few months or even quarters. As always, I disclose these holdings on my website.

This morning, I decided to look purposefully for stocks that are down this year after having a strong relative year last year. There are lots of reasons to be out of sync with the market, but sometimes it's just mean reversion at play. I took the Russell 3000 and found that 22% of the members are down over 10% this year. Of that group, 253 were down less than 10% in 2008. I wanted to make sure that these were companies with good balance sheets (net debt to cap <0) and earning profits (PE <30), so I constrained those areas. I also decided to kick out any stocks down 40% or more this year to avoid stepping into a falling knife situation. Here is what I got, sorted by sector:

]]> Mon, 27 Jul 2009 03:21:54 -0400 Alan Brochstein ab analytical servicesAlan Brochstein, CFA submits:

I was looking at a portfolio that I manage and was struck by some of the metrics. While the account is up over 20% YTD (it is balanced 60/40 Stocks and Bonds), the current median equity return YTD for the 14 stocks in the account is -11%. Long story short, I have had a lot of turnover this year and have picked up some stocks, especially in the Healthcare sector, that have lagged over the past few months or even quarters. As always, I disclose these holdings on my website.

This morning, I decided to look purposefully for stocks that are down this year after having a strong relative year last year. There are lots of reasons to be out of sync with the market, but sometimes it's just mean reversion at play. I took the Russell 3000 and found that 22% of the members are down over 10% this year. Of that group, 253 were down less than 10% in 2008. I wanted to make sure that these were companies with good balance sheets (net debt to cap <0) and earning profits (PE <30), so I constrained those areas. I also decided to kick out any stocks down 40% or more this year to avoid stepping into a falling knife situation. Here is what I got, sorted by sector:


Complete Story »]]> ACAP ACET AMSF AVAV BANF CBST CCC CIA CLH COGT DV EGY EIG EZPW FLIR FORR FPIC GRC GVA GXDX HOTT HRB HUBG KCLI LHCG MATK MPR MYGN NHC QCOR ROCM SYNO TG THOR UFCS WW Alan Brochstein Spotlight on Aerospace / Defense Sector: 3 Investment Candidates http://seekingalpha.com/article/151315-spotlight-on-aerospace-defense-sector-3-investment-candidates?source=feed 151315 After a six-year run of improving performance, resulting in a composite industry share price performance approximately three times better than the S&P 500 Index, the U.S. aerospace and defense industry finds itself in transition and facing uncertainty and, perhaps, leaner times ahead.
With core defense spending expected to slow, U.S. defense contractors need to identify additional revenue sources for the coming years. The near term should see some interesting merger and acquisition activity, mostly smaller deals by larger contractors to fill in capability gaps - particularly in the security, defense electronics and aftermarket service business areas.
Taking the uncertainty of current economic conditions into consideration, it is difficult to predict overall aerospace industry performance in the near term. In the longer term, however, prospects are good for continued, steady growth. Large civil aircraft, rotocraft, general aviation aircraft, regional and business jets, engines / power plants, communications satellites, military unmanned aerial systems and airport infrastructure and safety equipment should continue to experience steady growth. Other sectors, such as launch services, are experiencing lower but steady growth as they recover from market disruptions and / or adapt to commercial markets. The launch services sector could experience faster growth if the demand for satellite telecommunications services increases.
The maintenance, repair and overhaul [MRO] market has finally recovered to pre-9/11 levels, and growth in this sector will be led by expanding aircraft fleets in India, Eastern Europe, South America and China. The market for civil / commercial unmanned aerial systems remains stagnant in the absence of the civil regulations for certification and operation in the national air space; however, the Federal Aviation Administration and civil aviation authorities in Europe and Asia are working towards rationalization of civil certification procedures. Key markets for U.S. aerospace exports remain India, China, Russia, Japan, and Europe.
In summary, the overall level of defense spending will trend downward in response to unfocused threats, big budget deficits, a weak economy and an ambition domestic agenda. The business outlook for second-tier defense companies that grew rapidly during the Bush years will weaken as larger companies invade their market turf in pursuit of a more diverse business mix, leading a wave of consolidation in the sector that eliminates many smaller companies.
Our database categorizes 78 companies as being part of the aerospace and defense industry. Our screening criteria looks for companies with a healthy balance sheet, not too much debt and ROI and CFROI of at least 10%. This screen brings the number of candidates eligible for closer examination down to three: AeroVironment (AVAV), Cubic Corporation (CUB), and Force Protection (FRPT).
Our recommendation is to hold AVAV, sell CUB and hold FRPT.
Disclosure: Author has no position in any company mentioned in this post.

]]> Sun, 26 Jul 2009 03:25:16 -0400 Ron Sommer After a six-year run of improving performance, resulting in a composite industry share price performance approximately three times better than the S&P 500 Index, the U.S. aerospace and defense industry finds itself in transition and facing uncertainty and, perhaps, leaner times ahead.
With core defense spending expected to slow, U.S. defense contractors need to identify additional revenue sources for the coming years. The near term should see some interesting merger and acquisition activity, mostly smaller deals by larger contractors to fill in capability gaps - particularly in the security, defense electronics and aftermarket service business areas.
Taking the uncertainty of current economic conditions into consideration, it is difficult to predict overall aerospace industry performance in the near term. In the longer term, however, prospects are good for continued, steady growth. Large civil aircraft, rotocraft, general aviation aircraft, regional and business jets, engines / power plants, communications satellites, military unmanned aerial systems and airport infrastructure and safety equipment should continue to experience steady growth. Other sectors, such as launch services, are experiencing lower but steady growth as they recover from market disruptions and / or adapt to commercial markets. The launch services sector could experience faster growth if the demand for satellite telecommunications services increases.
The maintenance, repair and overhaul [MRO] market has finally recovered to pre-9/11 levels, and growth in this sector will be led by expanding aircraft fleets in India, Eastern Europe, South America and China. The market for civil / commercial unmanned aerial systems remains stagnant in the absence of the civil regulations for certification and operation in the national air space; however, the Federal Aviation Administration and civil aviation authorities in Europe and Asia are working towards rationalization of civil certification procedures. Key markets for U.S. aerospace exports remain India, China, Russia, Japan, and Europe.
In summary, the overall level of defense spending will trend downward in response to unfocused threats, big budget deficits, a weak economy and an ambition domestic agenda. The business outlook for second-tier defense companies that grew rapidly during the Bush years will weaken as larger companies invade their market turf in pursuit of a more diverse business mix, leading a wave of consolidation in the sector that eliminates many smaller companies.
Our database categorizes 78 companies as being part of the aerospace and defense industry. Our screening criteria looks for companies with a healthy balance sheet, not too much debt and ROI and CFROI of at least 10%. This screen brings the number of candidates eligible for closer examination down to three: AeroVironment (AVAV), Cubic Corporation (CUB), and Force Protection (FRPT).
Our recommendation is to hold AVAV, sell CUB and hold FRPT.
Disclosure: Author has no position in any company mentioned in this post.


Complete Story »]]> AVAV CUB FRPT ITA PPA Ron Sommer AeroVironment's 'Good Enough' Earnings http://seekingalpha.com/article/145321-aerovironment-s-good-enough-earnings?source=feed 145321 While the heart of earnings season starts up in 2 weeks (already?) some names with non typical quarter ends (i.e. July instead of June) are out this week. We mentioned Monsanto (MON) Wednesday morning, Darden Restaurants (DRI) reported Tuesday night (not so great on guidance) along with Oracle (ORCL), Riverbed Technology (RVBD) and PMC Sierra (PMCS) Thursday and a few others are also out there.

One small defense firm we still like is AeroVironment (AVAV) - unfortunately in the quest for 'reflation' or 'technology' stocks, this name has sat ignored for a few months as the computers jump in and out of the hot trades, leaving names like this sitting in the dust. Up until now, this stock has done nothing for 2 months. If AVAV can hold this 200 day it just broke out over, it might have a chance to actually begin working again.

]]> Thu, 25 Jun 2009 08:19:02 -0400 TraderMark Trader Mark submits:

While the heart of earnings season starts up in 2 weeks (already?) some names with non typical quarter ends (i.e. July instead of June) are out this week. We mentioned Monsanto (MON) Wednesday morning, Darden Restaurants (DRI) reported Tuesday night (not so great on guidance) along with Oracle (ORCL), Riverbed Technology (RVBD) and PMC Sierra (PMCS) Thursday and a few others are also out there.

One small defense firm we still like is AeroVironment (AVAV) - unfortunately in the quest for 'reflation' or 'technology' stocks, this name has sat ignored for a few months as the computers jump in and out of the hot trades, leaving names like this sitting in the dust. Up until now, this stock has done nothing for 2 months. If AVAV can hold this 200 day it just broke out over, it might have a chance to actually begin working again.


Complete Story »]]> AVAV TraderMark Cramer's Mad Money - Cogo a No-Go (6/8/09) http://seekingalpha.com/article/141679-cramer-s-mad-money-cogo-a-no-go-6-8-09?source=feed 141679 Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Monday June 8.

Bullish Calls:

Nordic American Tankers (NAT): "I continue to think that this is my favorite way to play the oil tanker market… I am not deviating."

]]> Tue, 09 Jun 2009 06:43:35 -0400 SA Editor Miriam Metzinger Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Monday June 8.

Bullish Calls:

Nordic American Tankers (NAT): "I continue to think that this is my favorite way to play the oil tanker market… I am not deviating."


Complete Story »]]> ADCT ARST AVAV BA COGO ED ELY LUV NAT OTTR TSYS SA Editor Miriam Metzinger Cramer's Lightning Round - A Smoking, Sizzling Stock That Didn't Do the Job (4/6/09) http://seekingalpha.com/article/129830-cramer-s-lightning-round-a-smoking-sizzling-stock-that-didn-t-do-the-job-4-6-09?source=feed 129830 Stocks discussed on the lightning round session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Monday April 6.

Bullish Calls:

Nucor (NUE): "I'd prefer to be in Nucor..it's got a much cleaner balance sheet (than U.S. Steel)."

]]> Tue, 07 Apr 2009 07:42:13 -0400 SA Editor Miriam Metzinger Stocks discussed on the lightning round session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Monday April 6.

Bullish Calls:

Nucor (NUE): "I'd prefer to be in Nucor..it's got a much cleaner balance sheet (than U.S. Steel)."


Complete Story »]]> AVAV BSX CELG COH CSCO D DNDN DUK GIS GTI LMT NUE PAAS TNH VRTX X SA Editor Miriam Metzinger Cramer's Lightning Round - Not the Best Time to Speculate on Tech (3/12/09) http://seekingalpha.com/article/125792-cramer-s-lightning-round-not-the-best-time-to-speculate-on-tech-3-12-09?source=feed 125792 Stocks discussed on the lightning round session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Thursday March 12.

Bullish Calls:

Terra Nitrogen (TNH): "...we have Terra Nitrogen going higher. That's the one you want to play with."

]]> Fri, 13 Mar 2009 05:39:25 -0400 SA Editor Miriam Metzinger Stocks discussed on the lightning round session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Thursday March 12.

Bullish Calls:

Terra Nitrogen (TNH): "...we have Terra Nitrogen going higher. That's the one you want to play with."


Complete Story »]]> AEM AUY AVAV EGO HPQ MOS NTCTG TNH TSM X SA Editor Miriam Metzinger Shorts Were Right on AeroVironment http://seekingalpha.com/article/125292-shorts-were-right-on-aerovironment?source=feed 125292 Wow, a complete mess from AeroVironment (AVAV) after the close Tuesday- I've been so focused on the indexes that I have not been looking that closely at individual stocks, but the shorts were correct on this one.

The stock is down 32% as I write this to $20.80 but apparently was as down as low as $18.50 earlier in the morning - cripes. I am exiting the the 0.5% position (it was 0.7% going into the day) with a staggering 40% loss on this last piece of the position; thankfully the position size was small but it was a $3500 hit (on $940K portfolio)

]]> Wed, 11 Mar 2009 04:55:03 -0400 TraderMark Trader Mark submits:

Wow, a complete mess from AeroVironment (AVAV) after the close Tuesday- I've been so focused on the indexes that I have not been looking that closely at individual stocks, but the shorts were correct on this one.

The stock is down 32% as I write this to $20.80 but apparently was as down as low as $18.50 earlier in the morning - cripes. I am exiting the the 0.5% position (it was 0.7% going into the day) with a staggering 40% loss on this last piece of the position; thankfully the position size was small but it was a $3500 hit (on $940K portfolio)


Complete Story »]]> AVAV ESLT LLL LMT NOC TraderMark Tuesday's Options Recap: Risk Perceptions Fall Sharply http://seekingalpha.com/article/125201-tuesday-s-options-recap-risk-perceptions-fall-sharply?source=feed 125201 Sentiment

Stocks are broadly higher and the major averages are near session their best levels heading into the final hour of trading. The equity market opened higher Tuesday with help from strength in the financials. HSBC (HBC), Europe's biggest bank, helped set a positive tone for overseas trading after rallying 11.9 percent and erasing all of the losses from the day before, when shares sank on fears of further write-downs.

In the US, the focus was on Citigroup (C) early in the day after the company's CEO said in a memo that his bank was profitable during the first two months of 2009 and that Citi's share price doesn't reflect its capital position or earnings power. Shares of the bank are up 37 percent and leading the Dow to a 320-point gain. BofA (BAC) rallied 26 percent and the remaining 28 Dow stocks are also in positive territory.

]]> Tue, 10 Mar 2009 15:52:37 -0400 Frederic Ruffy Frederic Ruffy submits:

Sentiment

Stocks are broadly higher and the major averages are near session their best levels heading into the final hour of trading. The equity market opened higher Tuesday with help from strength in the financials. HSBC (HBC), Europe's biggest bank, helped set a positive tone for overseas trading after rallying 11.9 percent and erasing all of the losses from the day before, when shares sank on fears of further write-downs.

In the US, the focus was on Citigroup (C) early in the day after the company's CEO said in a memo that his bank was profitable during the first two months of 2009 and that Citi's share price doesn't reflect its capital position or earnings power. Shares of the bank are up 37 percent and leading the Dow to a 320-point gain. BofA (BAC) rallied 26 percent and the remaining 28 Dow stocks are also in positive territory.


Complete Story »]]> AVAV BAC C CMTL DFS EWY GE HBC NOK RCL Frederic Ruffy AeroVironment, Inc. F3Q09 (Qtr End 01/31/09) Earnings Call Transcript http://seekingalpha.com/article/124979-aerovironment-inc-f3q09-qtr-end-01-31-09-earnings-call-transcript?source=feed 124979

AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV)

F3Q09 Earnings Call

]]> Mon, 09 Mar 2009 22:08:33 -0400

AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV)

F3Q09 Earnings Call


Complete Story »]]> AVAV Cramer's Stop Trading - Peabody Is in Freefall (3/2/09) http://seekingalpha.com/article/123803-cramer-s-stop-trading-peabody-is-in-freefall-3-2-09?source=feed 123803 Stocks discussed on Jim Cramer's Stop Trading! TV Program, Monday March 2.

Anadarko Petroleum (APC), AeroVironment (AVAV), Arch Coal (ACI), Peabody Energy (BTU), Duke Energy (DUK)

]]> Tue, 03 Mar 2009 07:18:21 -0500 SA Editor Miriam Metzinger Stocks discussed on Jim Cramer's Stop Trading! TV Program, Monday March 2.

Anadarko Petroleum (APC), AeroVironment (AVAV), Arch Coal (ACI), Peabody Energy (BTU), Duke Energy (DUK)


Complete Story »]]> ACI APC AVAV BTU DUK SA Editor Miriam Metzinger Three Stocks Making Natural Highs http://seekingalpha.com/article/121511-three-stocks-making-natural-highs?source=feed 121511 It certainly is a "stockpicker's market", as the pundits like to say, since the tried and true indexing and buy and hold methodologies have pummeled investors over the past year. It's therefore instructive to consider which stocks are making new highs naturally. By naturally, I mean, it's not an inverse ETF and it's not a buyout that was just announced. These are stocks that are rising in this insidious environment through organic growth, P/E expansion, "rumored" buyouts or otherwise...with more room to run.

AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) - I had highlighted this one in August in a similar post on new highs and from there, it continues to run up 25% vs. a loss of 36% for the S&P. Some Highlights:

]]> Thu, 19 Feb 2009 12:08:39 -0500 Everyday Finance Dan Pritch submits:

It certainly is a "stockpicker's market", as the pundits like to say, since the tried and true indexing and buy and hold methodologies have pummeled investors over the past year. It's therefore instructive to consider which stocks are making new highs naturally. By naturally, I mean, it's not an inverse ETF and it's not a buyout that was just announced. These are stocks that are rising in this insidious environment through organic growth, P/E expansion, "rumored" buyouts or otherwise...with more room to run.

AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) - I had highlighted this one in August in a similar post on new highs and from there, it continues to run up 25% vs. a loss of 36% for the S&P. Some Highlights:


Complete Story »]]> AIPC AVAV CFL Everyday Finance Cramer's Mad Money - A Bull on the China Stocks (2/13/09) http://seekingalpha.com/article/120775-cramer-s-mad-money-a-bull-on-the-china-stocks-2-13-09?source=feed 120775 Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Friday February 13.

The Real Stimulus - China; GM (GM), Terra Nitrogen (TNH), Qualcomm (QCOM), Hewlett Packard (HPQ), Cisco (CSCO), Caterpillar (CAT), Honeywell (HON), United Technologies (UTX), Coke (KO), Kraft (KFT), Kellogg (K), General Mills (GIS), Knight Capital (NITE), Goldman Sachs (GS), Credit Suisse (CS)

]]> Mon, 16 Feb 2009 07:41:04 -0500 SA Editor Miriam Metzinger Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Friday February 13.

The Real Stimulus - China; GM (GM), Terra Nitrogen (TNH), Qualcomm (QCOM), Hewlett Packard (HPQ), Cisco (CSCO), Caterpillar (CAT), Honeywell (HON), United Technologies (UTX), Coke (KO), Kraft (KFT), Kellogg (K), General Mills (GIS), Knight Capital (NITE), Goldman Sachs (GS), Credit Suisse (CS)


Complete Story »]]> AVAV AXYS BEAS BP BSX CAT CS CSCO GD GIS GMGMQ.PK GS HON HPQ K KFT KO MA MDT MRO NITE QCOM RTN SGP STJ TNH UTX V SA Editor Miriam Metzinger AeroVironment Will Fly on Government Contract http://seekingalpha.com/article/118990-aerovironment-will-fly-on-government-contract?source=feed 118990 AeroVironment (AVAV) is roughly a $300M revenue company so this news is very good... one contract alone is worth greater than 10% of revenue estimate and within a 12 month span. A nice positive in a murky market.

  • AeroVironment, Inc. (AV) (NASDAQ:AVAV - News) announced that the U.S. Army has ordered additional RQ-11B Raven® small unmanned aircraft systems [UAS)]and associated services for its fiscal year 2009 requirements by the exercise of an option under an existing contract. Each Raven® system typically consists of three aircraft, two ground control stations, and spares. The aggregate order value is $41.7 million and is fully funded. The items and services provided under this award on this multi-year contract are scheduled to be delivered over the next 12 months.
  • AV’s Raven® system is a 4.2-pound, backpackable, hand-launched sensor platform that provides day and night, real-time video imagery for “over the hill” and “around the corner” reconnaissance, surveillance and target acquisition in support of tactical units. U.S. and allied armed forces use Ravens extensively for missions such as base security, route reconnaissance, mission planning and force protection.

[Sep 16: New Position #2: AeroVironment]

]]> Fri, 06 Feb 2009 07:02:13 -0500 TraderMark Trader Mark submits:

AeroVironment (AVAV) is roughly a $300M revenue company so this news is very good... one contract alone is worth greater than 10% of revenue estimate and within a 12 month span. A nice positive in a murky market.

  • AeroVironment, Inc. (AV) (NASDAQ:AVAV - News) announced that the U.S. Army has ordered additional RQ-11B Raven® small unmanned aircraft systems [UAS)]and associated services for its fiscal year 2009 requirements by the exercise of an option under an existing contract. Each Raven® system typically consists of three aircraft, two ground control stations, and spares. The aggregate order value is $41.7 million and is fully funded. The items and services provided under this award on this multi-year contract are scheduled to be delivered over the next 12 months.
  • AV’s Raven® system is a 4.2-pound, backpackable, hand-launched sensor platform that provides day and night, real-time video imagery for “over the hill” and “around the corner” reconnaissance, surveillance and target acquisition in support of tactical units. U.S. and allied armed forces use Ravens extensively for missions such as base security, route reconnaissance, mission planning and force protection.

[Sep 16: New Position #2: AeroVironment]


Complete Story »]]> AVAV TraderMark Equities Generals Should Be Shot http://seekingalpha.com/article/118372-equities-generals-should-be-shot?source=feed 118372 We've been discussing the past few weeks how this correction has missed "The Generals" (the leadership stocks). While the market went through a horrid January, many of our stocks were unscathed. Which had me worrying - it's hard to get behind a shorter-term bottom until the Generals are taken out back to the barn, blindfolded, given a cigarette, and then shot.

In a bull market, I want to be buying stocks that are holding up during a downturn because there is no pattern that they indeed need to be shot. In a bear market, I take the opposite tack - I assume they are going to be shot. So this is why we have not built up any 3-4-5-6% type of stakes the past month in stocks that had "held up the best". Indeed, I've had one measly position over 2% on the long side. (which is being sand blasted of course).

]]> Wed, 04 Feb 2009 09:50:12 -0500 TraderMark Trader Mark submits:

We've been discussing the past few weeks how this correction has missed "The Generals" (the leadership stocks). While the market went through a horrid January, many of our stocks were unscathed. Which had me worrying - it's hard to get behind a shorter-term bottom until the Generals are taken out back to the barn, blindfolded, given a cigarette, and then shot.

In a bull market, I want to be buying stocks that are holding up during a downturn because there is no pattern that they indeed need to be shot. In a bear market, I take the opposite tack - I assume they are going to be shot. So this is why we have not built up any 3-4-5-6% type of stakes the past month in stocks that had "held up the best". Indeed, I've had one measly position over 2% on the long side. (which is being sand blasted of course).


Complete Story »]]> ASEI AVAV EBS MANT MCD NCIT SQNM THOR WMT XOM TraderMark Cramer's Lightning Round - AeroVironment No Longer Flying (1/15/09) http://seekingalpha.com/article/115094-cramer-s-lightning-round-aerovironment-no-longer-flying-1-15-09?source=feed 115094 Stocks discussed in the lightning round session of Jim Cramer’s Mad Money TV program, Thursday January 15.

Bullish Calls:

Altria (MO): “Altria is done going down. You buy this one."
Public Service Enterprise (PEG): "I think you should buy more. This is an excellent utility with a great risk portfolio."

]]> Fri, 16 Jan 2009 05:58:31 -0500 SA Editor Miriam Metzinger Stocks discussed in the lightning round session of Jim Cramer’s Mad Money TV program, Thursday January 15.

Bullish Calls:

Altria (MO): “Altria is done going down. You buy this one."
Public Service Enterprise (PEG): "I think you should buy more. This is an excellent utility with a great risk portfolio."


Complete Story »]]> AVAV BIDU MO PEG PNC RKT SA Editor Miriam Metzinger AeroVironment: Time for Defense Stocks to Gear Up http://seekingalpha.com/article/114274-aerovironment-time-for-defense-stocks-to-gear-up?source=feed 114274 With the conflict in Gaza escalating, the world has once again turned its attention to military action. As investors, it is normal to look for opportunity in the midst of chaos and defense stocks are beginning to once again grab the eyes of traders. It’s not just the Middle East that should be turning heads, but also conflicts between Russia and the Balkans, (natural gas is actually one of the tools of warfare). My friend Justice Litle, Editorial Director for the Taipan Publishing Group, also noted that things have been unusually quiet in North Korea as well. Is it out of the question that we could face a serious, multi-county conflict in 2009?

While I certainly do not relish the thought of armed conflict and civilians in danger, it’s important to protect ourselves both physically and fiscally if such an event were to arise. And so investors should certainly keep an eye on stocks that will do well if conflict intensifies. The natural tendency is to flock to stocks like Northrop Grumman (NOC) Lockheed Martin (LMT) and General Dynamics (GD). These large-cap players have actually held up fairly well during the fist week of trading this year.

]]> Mon, 12 Jan 2009 03:28:00 -0500 Zachary Scheidt Zachary Scheidt submits:

With the conflict in Gaza escalating, the world has once again turned its attention to military action. As investors, it is normal to look for opportunity in the midst of chaos and defense stocks are beginning to once again grab the eyes of traders. It’s not just the Middle East that should be turning heads, but also conflicts between Russia and the Balkans, (natural gas is actually one of the tools of warfare). My friend Justice Litle, Editorial Director for the Taipan Publishing Group, also noted that things have been unusually quiet in North Korea as well. Is it out of the question that we could face a serious, multi-county conflict in 2009?

While I certainly do not relish the thought of armed conflict and civilians in danger, it’s important to protect ourselves both physically and fiscally if such an event were to arise. And so investors should certainly keep an eye on stocks that will do well if conflict intensifies. The natural tendency is to flock to stocks like Northrop Grumman (NOC) Lockheed Martin (LMT) and General Dynamics (GD). These large-cap players have actually held up fairly well during the fist week of trading this year.


Complete Story »]]> AVAV Zachary Scheidt 'Wars and Rumors of Wars' - Time to Look at Defense Stocks http://seekingalpha.com/article/114173-wars-and-rumors-of-wars-time-to-look-at-defense-stocks?source=feed 114173 With the prospect for “wars and rumors of wars” on an unsettling rise, now could be a good time to take a closer look at defense stocks.

The backdrop to 2009 thus far reminds me of that old New Testament line: “And ye shall hear of wars and rumors of wars.”

]]> Sun, 11 Jan 2009 06:20:54 -0500 Justice Litle With the prospect for “wars and rumors of wars” on an unsettling rise, now could be a good time to take a closer look at defense stocks.

The backdrop to 2009 thus far reminds me of that old New Testament line: “And ye shall hear of wars and rumors of wars.”


Complete Story »]]> AVAV GD LMT NOC Justice Litle Axys Upgraded Again, But AeroVironment Has a Better Chart http://seekingalpha.com/article/112682-axys-upgraded-again-but-aerovironment-has-a-better-chart?source=feed 112682 I'm keeping this name on the radar as I like both defense and healthcare as sectors for 2009, but it's been trading like a Chinese small cap (or US financial) the past few weeks; crazy volatility. Axsys received the second upgrade in two weeks today [Dec 23: Axsys Technologies Upgrade]

  • Shares of Axsys Technologies Inc. climbed Tuesday after a Morgan Joseph analyst upgraded the stock, saying it has been oversold -- and the company has "indicated that its business is operating smoothly" despite the economic crisis.
  • "We visited clients with management last month, and during those meetings, it was reiterated that pricing and volumes have not been affected by weak general economic conditions," wrote Morgan Joseph analyst Michael French in a note to investors. He upgraded the stock to "Buy" from "Hold," with a target price of $64.
  • French said the company's shares have been weak since an analyst downgraded them based on valuation. Earlier this month, a JPMorgan analyst downgraded Axsys to "Underweight" from "Neutral," saying the stock is priced at too high a premium to its rivals.

I like this name for the relative security of its revenue stream (heavy dependence on federal government), but the volatility is simply too wicked of late. Technically, one could make a relatively shaky case that the stock is forming a double bottom (with mid October lows)

]]> Tue, 30 Dec 2008 16:24:43 -0500 TraderMark Trader Mark submits:

I'm keeping this name on the radar as I like both defense and healthcare as sectors for 2009, but it's been trading like a Chinese small cap (or US financial) the past few weeks; crazy volatility. Axsys received the second upgrade in two weeks today [Dec 23: Axsys Technologies Upgrade]

  • Shares of Axsys Technologies Inc. climbed Tuesday after a Morgan Joseph analyst upgraded the stock, saying it has been oversold -- and the company has "indicated that its business is operating smoothly" despite the economic crisis.
  • "We visited clients with management last month, and during those meetings, it was reiterated that pricing and volumes have not been affected by weak general economic conditions," wrote Morgan Joseph analyst Michael French in a note to investors. He upgraded the stock to "Buy" from "Hold," with a target price of $64.
  • French said the company's shares have been weak since an analyst downgraded them based on valuation. Earlier this month, a JPMorgan analyst downgraded Axsys to "Underweight" from "Neutral," saying the stock is priced at too high a premium to its rivals.

I like this name for the relative security of its revenue stream (heavy dependence on federal government), but the volatility is simply too wicked of late. Technically, one could make a relatively shaky case that the stock is forming a double bottom (with mid October lows)


Complete Story »]]> AVAV AXYS TraderMark