Seeking Alpha

AvalonBay Communities, Inc. (AVB)

  • Sun, Apr. 26, 5:35 PM
  • Wed, Apr. 22, 10:02 AM
    • Deals in the REIT space are picking up steam, with the latest being today's sale of Associated Estates to a Brookfield fund for $2.5B. Associated Estates has been under activist pressure for a number of months, and one wonders if any other apartment names might be next in line.
    • Sector giants Equity Residential (EQR +1.3%), AvalonBay (AVB +1.2%), and Essex Property (ESS +1.2%) don't seem like likely targets, but are nicely higher on the session.
    • Others: Post Properties (PPS +1.7%), UDR (UDR +1.6%), Aimco (AIV +1.3%), Camden Property (CPT +1.2%), Home Properties (HME +1.4%), Mid-America Apartments (MAA +1.1%), Investors Real Estate (IRET +0.8%).
    | Wed, Apr. 22, 10:02 AM | Comment!
  • Tue, Apr. 21, 3:54 PM
    • The REITs are down about 8% from their January highs while the homebuilders have posted gains, bringing the ratio of homebuilders to REITs to long-term resistance, says MKM Partners' Jonathan Krinsky, who suggests fading the move.
    • Most vulnerable to tactical pullbacks are those homebuilders/suppliers showing the weakest relative strength: Beazer Homes (NYSE:BZH), Lennar (NYSE:LEN), Louisiana-Pacific (NYSE:LPX), Taylor Morrisn (NYSE:TMHC), Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL), and TRI Pointe Homes (NYSE:TPH).
    • The best long REIT ideas are those showing the best relative strength: AvalonBay (NYSE:AVB), Crown Castle (NYSE:CCI), Essex Property (NYSE:ESS), Extra Space Storage (NYSE:EXR), Federal Realty (NYSE:FRT), General Growth (NYSE:GGP), SL Green (NYSE:SLG), and UDR.
    • Those REITs showing poor relative strength or to be avoided or sold: American Tower (NYSE:AMT), American Realty Capital (NASDAQ:ARCP), Brixmor (NYSE:BRX), Host Hotels (NYSE:HST), and Omega Healthcare (NYSE:OHI).
    • Source: Barron's
    | Tue, Apr. 21, 3:54 PM | 12 Comments
  • Thu, Apr. 9, 10:30 AM
    • "We expect apartment fundamentals to remain stronger for longer given favorable demographics, solid job and wage growth, little impact from for-sale housing, and lower gasoline costs," says analyst Robert Stevenson, anticipating renters will continue to absorb 5%+ rental rate hikes this year.
    • His two favorite names in apartment REITs are Home Properties (HME -1.1%) and Mid-America Apartment Communities (MAA -1.5%) - they're the cheapest in the sector, he says, and he sees no reason to pay a premium price for others with similar growth characteristics.
    • Risks: Spiking long-term bond yields and oversupply, but Stevenson believes the apartment companies are better-positioned to deal with both than the rest of the residential REIT sector.
    • Bullish on HME and MAA, Stevenson gives Neutral ratings to Aimco (AIV -1.5%), AvalonBay (AVB -1.6%), Camden Property (CPT -1.5%), Equity Residential (EQR -1.7%), Essex Property (ESS -1.7%), Post Properties (PPS -1%), and UDR (UDR -1.7%).
    • Source: Barron's
    | Thu, Apr. 9, 10:30 AM | 1 Comment
  • Wed, Apr. 8, 10:28 AM
    • Started at Outperform are AvalonBay (AVB +0.5%), Camden Property Trust (CPT +0.5%), Equity Residential (EQR +0.4%), and Mid-America Apartment (MAA +0.6%).
    • Initiated at Market Perform is Aimco (AIV +0.4%), Essex Property Trust (ESS +0.5%), and UDR (UDR +0.3%).
    | Wed, Apr. 8, 10:28 AM | Comment!
  • Wed, Apr. 1, 3:30 PM
    • Actavis (ACT -1%) should outperform following its purchase of Allergan, and FDA action dates for eluxadoline and cariprazine could also be catalysts.
    • Though Occidental Petroleum is the team's top pick in energy, Anadarko (APC +1.1%) is the best short-term play on a recovery in oil prices.
    • Strong fundamentals and easy year-over-year comps make AvalonBay (AVB -0.9%) a pick in apartment rentals.
    • A favorable Supreme Court ruling in King vs. Burwell by the end of June provides plenty of upside possibility with little downside for HCA Holdings (HCA -0.8%).
    • Also on the buy list are Ingersoll-Rand (IR -1.5%), Nvidia (NVDA +0.2%), UTX (UTX -1.1%), and Disney (DIS +0.4%).
    • Making the underperform list is the Gap (GPS -2.2%) thanks to less room for cost cutting and a forecast for continued weakness in sales. Also a Q2 sell: Tesla (TSLA -1%) " lacks any real technological advantage over its competitors" says the team, seeing a significant Q1 loss, an increase in the already-high cash burn, and a questionable delivery outlook.
    • Source: Benzinga
    | Wed, Apr. 1, 3:30 PM | 50 Comments
  • Tue, Mar. 17, 9:56 AM
    • Launching coverage on the multi-family sector, Baird starts UDR (UDR -0.1%), Camden Property (CPT -0.1%), Mid-America Apartment (MAA +0.5%), and Aimco (AIV) at Outperform.
    • Started at Neural are AvalonBay (AVB -0.3%), Post Properties (PPS -0.7%), Essex Property (ESS -0.2%), and Equity Residential (EQR -0.7%).
    • Manufactured housing community operator Sun Communities (SUI +0.2%) rates a Neutral, as do campus housing players American Campus Communities (ACC) and Education Realty (EDR -0.2%).
    • Equity Lifestyle Properties (ELS -0.6%) is started at Outperform.
    | Tue, Mar. 17, 9:56 AM | Comment!
  • Tue, Mar. 10, 3:08 PM
    • With the averages having a tightening tantrum - the Dow down nearly 300 - money is cautiously flowing into some income plays, notably the REITs. The iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (NYSEARCA:IYR) is flat on the session.
    • Among the larger caps: Simon Property (SPG +0.2%), General Growth (GGP +0.7%), Health Care REIT (HCN +0.9%), HCP (HCP +0.4%), Equity Residential (EQR +0.5%), AvalonBay (AVB +0.6%), Boston Properties (BXP +0.2%), American Capital Agency (AGNC +0.2%), Annaly Capital (NLY -0.8%)
    • Previously: Yields tumble alongside stocks (March 10)
    | Tue, Mar. 10, 3:08 PM | 7 Comments
  • Fri, Mar. 6, 10:31 AM
    • Equity REITs are facing some competition as the 10-year Treasury yield has popped all the way to 2.24% (up 11 bps on the session) following the strong jobs report which saw 295K jobs added in February and the unemployment rate dropping to 5.5%.
    • Checking short-term interest rate futures, they're falling (meaning higher rates), but still not pricing in a rate hike until late summer.
    • The iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (IYR -2.3%).
    • Realty Income (O -3.7%), National Retail Properties (NNN -3.9%), Agree Realty (ADC -3.1%), Omega Heathcare (OHI -4.5%), Health Care REIT (HCN -3.5%), Ventas(VTR -3.7%), HCP (HCP -3.6%), Medical Properties (MPW -4%), Healthcare Trust (HTA -4%), AvalonBay (AVB -2.7%), Essex Property (ESS -2.3%), Simon Property (SPG -2.3%), General Growth (GGP -2.2%), Kimco (KIM -2.9%), Inland Real Estate (IRC -2.9%), DDR (DDR -2.7%), Federal Realty Investment (FRT -2.6%), Public Storage (PSA -2%), Sovran Self Storage (SSS -2.7%), Boston Properties (BXP -2.8%), First Potomac (FPO -3.2%), Digital Realty Trust (DLR -1.9%), Hospitality Properties (HT -2.1%), Ashford (AHT -2.7%), STAG Industrial (STAG -3%), American Campus (ACC -2.9%).
    • Previously: Dollar and Treasury yields spike after strong jobs print (March 6)
    | Fri, Mar. 6, 10:31 AM | 62 Comments
  • Tue, Feb. 24, 3:32 PM
    • The 10-year Treasury yield has tumbled back beneath 2% amid Janet Yellen's congressional testimony and some weak economic data, but there's no bid for income favorites like equity REITs.
    • The iShares DJ U.S. Real Estate ETF (IYR -1.9%).
    • Realty Income (O -2.9%), National Retail Properties (NNN -2.7%), Senior Housing Properties (SNH -2.2%), Ventas (VTR -3.8%), HCP (HCP -3.6%), Equity Commonwealth (EQC -2.3%), Vornado (VNO -1.9%), Equity Residential (EQR -2.5%), AvalonBay (AVB -2.7%), Simon Property (SPG -1.8%), General Growth (GGP -2.1%), Kimco (KIM -3%), Sovran Self Storage (SSS -2%), Boston Properties (BXP -2%), Hospitality Properties (HPT -2.7%), LaSalle Hotel (LHO -2.8%), Liberty Property Trust (LPT -2.7%), American Campus Communities (ACC -1.7%).
    | Tue, Feb. 24, 3:32 PM | 40 Comments
  • Wed, Feb. 18, 12:47 PM
    • Including dividends, apartment REITs returned 39.7% in 2014, the best among all real estate sectors, according to Nareit, which says REITs overall returned a still-pleasing 28%.
    • REITs in general have cooled of late - off 1.7% in February, with apartments off 1.1% as some analysts ring the register.
    • Morgan Stanley's Haendel St. Juste says slowing growth combined with pricey stock prices isn't the best combination. He notes the names are trading at 10-15% premiums to NAV vs. 10-15% discounts one year ago.
    • Then there's oversupply, especially in company towns like D.C. and in the Texas oil belt. Over the past six months, builders have broken ground on multifamily apartments at an average pace of 357K units per year - 26% more than the 30-year average.
    • Names of interest: EQR, AVB, ESS, PPS, UDR, AIV, CPT. HME, MAA, TSRE, AEC, IRET
    | Wed, Feb. 18, 12:47 PM | 2 Comments
  • Wed, Feb. 4, 1:14 PM
    | Wed, Feb. 4, 1:14 PM | Comment!
  • Mon, Feb. 2, 9:15 AM
    • The 22.65K square foot site at 1865 Broadway was purchased from and is currently occupied by the American Bible Society, which will stay there until Q3.
    • AvalonBay (NYSE:AVB) intends to develop on the site a residential tower of more than 300K square feet with retail at the base. Construction is expected to start in late 2016.
    • Source: Press Release
    | Mon, Feb. 2, 9:15 AM | Comment!
  • Wed, Jan. 28, 4:43 PM
    • AvalonBay Communities (NYSE:AVB) declares $1.25/share quarterly dividend, 7.8% increase from prior dividend of $1.16.
    • Forward yield 2.82%
    • Payable April 15; for shareholders of record March 31; ex-div March 27.
    | Wed, Jan. 28, 4:43 PM | 1 Comment
  • Wed, Jan. 28, 4:39 PM
    • Q4 core FFO per share of $1.74 up 7.4% from a year ago.
    • For established communities as of April 1 (51,201 apartments), average rental rates up 3.8% and economic occupancy up 0.3%, for a 4.1% increase in rental revenue. No. California and the Pacific NW are strong spots with 8% and 6.3% gains in rates, respectively, and Mid-Atlantic is weak with a 0.5% decline.
    • Quarterly dividend is raised 7.8% to $1.25 per share.
    • 2015 core FFO per share is expected at $7.20-$7.50 (was $6.78 in 2014).
    • Conference call at 1 ET
    • Previously: AvalonBay Communities misses by $0.03 (Jan. 28)
    • AVB flat after hours
    | Wed, Jan. 28, 4:39 PM | Comment!
  • Wed, Jan. 28, 4:27 PM
    | Wed, Jan. 28, 4:27 PM | Comment!
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Company Description
AvalonBay Communities Inc is engaged in the development, redevelopment, acquisition, ownership and operation of multifamily communities located primarily in high barrier to entry markets of the United States.
Sector: Financial
Country: United States