Wed, Jan. 28, 4:39 PM
- Q4 core FFO per share of $1.74 up 7.4% from a year ago.
- For established communities as of April 1 (51,201 apartments), average rental rates up 3.8% and economic occupancy up 0.3%, for a 4.1% increase in rental revenue. No. California and the Pacific NW are strong spots with 8% and 6.3% gains in rates, respectively, and Mid-Atlantic is weak with a 0.5% decline.
- Quarterly dividend is raised 7.8% to $1.25 per share.
- 2015 core FFO per share is expected at $7.20-$7.50 (was $6.78 in 2014).
- Conference call at 1 ET
- Previously: AvalonBay Communities misses by $0.03 (Jan. 28)
- AVB flat after hours
Wed, Jan. 28, 4:27 PM
Wed, Jan. 28, 12:23 PM
- Expect plenty of foreign capital to continue flowing into the sector, says MLV analyst Ryan Meliker. This will contribute to cap rate compression, making it more difficult for REITs to make accretive purchases.
- The West Coast should lead the country in job generation, and thus rent growth, making Essex Property Trust (ESS) - essentially a pure-play on major markets there - an interesting pick.
- The Northeast is split - with Boston and NYC expected to outperform on rent growth, but Philadelphia, Baltimore, and D.C. predicted to lag.
- Strength in the Southeast will be led by Atlanta, and Central and South Florida. Meliker's top pick, Preferred Apartments (APTS +0.6%) has a strong presence in Atlanta.
- "Conference participants agreed that Houston was in for difficult times ahead – there was no sugar coating how oil prices might affect job growth and therefore demand for multifamily housing."
- Others of interest: Aimco (AIV +0.6%), Associated Estates (AEC +3.1%), AvalonBay (AVB -0.2%), Post Properties (PPS +0.3%), UDR (UDR +0.3%), Camden Property (CPT -0.3%), Home Properties (HME +0.2%), Mid-America (MAA +0.1%), Trade Street Residential (TSRE -0.6%), Equity Residential (EQR +0.3%).
Tue, Jan. 27, 5:35 PM| 4 Comments
Wed, Jan. 14, 7:34 AM
- The hot sector is cut to Market Weight from Overweight at Wells Fargo amid a big reshuffling of ratings at the bank.
- Names of interest: EQR, AVB, ESS, PPS, UDR, AIV, CPT, HME, MAA, TSRE, AEC, IRET.
- Previously: Sell the net lease REIT sector says Wells Fargo (Jan. 14)
- Previously: Wells Fargo pulls the plug on mortgage REITs (Jan. 12)
Mon, Jan. 12, 9:46 AM
- Two apartment players get upgrades to Buy from Neutral: AvalonBay (AVB +0.9%) and Mid-America Apartment Communities (MAA +1%). Also getting an upgrade to Buy thanks to its NYC exposure is SL Green Realty (SLG +1%).
- Downgraded to Underperform from Hold are Government Properties Trust (GOV -0.9%) and Digital Realty Trust (DLR -0.1%).
Tue, Jan. 6, 2:25 PM
- The 10-year Treasury yield plunging all the way to 1.94% makes the dividends on these players even more attractive.
- ETFs: IYR, VNQ, DRN, URE, SRS, ICF, SCHH, RWR, KBWY, DRV, REK, FRI, FTY, PSR, WREI
- Individual names: National Retail Properties (NNN +2.3%), Spirit Realty (SRC +3.2%), Health Care REIT (HCN +1.6%), Ventas (VTR +2.1%), HCP (HCP +2.3%), AvalonBay (AVB +1.4%), Essex Property Trust (ESS +1.2%), Brixmor Property (BRX +1.8%), Macerich (MAC +0.9%), Retail Properties of America (RPAI +1.2%), Tanger Factory (SKT +1.3%), Public Storage (PSA +1.6%), Sovran Self Storage (SSS +1.9%),
Dec. 16, 2014, 10:49 AM
- National annual effective rent growth of 4.7% in November is the strongest result since August 2011, reports Axiometrics.
- Axiometrics' Jay Denton: "The combination of an improving job market, and a growing percentage of the population that prefers renting to owning, continues to boost apartment demand."
- Year-to-date rent growth of 5% makes 2014 the strongest post-recession year. 2010 was the previous high at 4.6%.
- The occupancy rate continued a seasonal decline, but at 94.8% it's the strongest November read since Axiometrics started reporting monthly in 2008.
- Source: Press release
- Interested parties: EQR, AVB, ESS, PPS, UDR, AIV, CPT, HME, MAA, TSRE, AEC, IRET
Nov. 24, 2014, 2:40 PM
- Expected rent growth of 3.9% in 2015 is a bit slower than this year's 4%, according to the NAR, but it's still about 200 basis points higher than inflation.
- Though anticipated to edge upward, vacancy rates will still be scraping bottom - 4.1% in 2015 and 4.2% in 2015 vs. 4% this year. When vacancy rates are below 5%, it's considered a "landlord's market" in which property owners can continue to hike rents, says the NAR.
- Apartment REITs: Equity Residential (NYSE:EQR), AvalonBay (NYSE:AVB), Essex Property Trust (NYSE:ESS), Post Properties (NYSE:PPS), UDR, Aimco (NYSE:AIV), Camden Property Trust (NYSE:CPT), Home Properties (NYSE:HME), Mid-America Apartment Communities (NYSE:MAA).
Nov. 19, 2014, 4:59 PM
Nov. 17, 2014, 5:40 PM
Oct. 27, 2014, 4:47 PM
- Q3 core FFO per share of $1.73 up 6.1% from a year ago.
- Rental revenue for established communities (51,524 apartments) up 3.7% to $336.45M. NOI for established communities of $233.525M up 5.5%.
- Overall rental rates up 3.7%, with the Pacific Northwest leading, up 7.6% and the Mid-Atlantic lagging, down 0.6%.
- Full-year core FFO expected at $6.78-$6.84.
- Conference call tomorrow at 1 ET
- Previously: AvalonBay Communities beats by $0.14
- AVB flat AH
Oct. 27, 2014, 4:12 PM
Oct. 26, 2014, 5:35 PM
Oct. 14, 2014, 3:10 PM
- The vacancy rate ticked higher to 4.2% in Q3 from 4.1 a quarter earlier - not much of a move, but the first increase in almost five years, according to REIS. Another survey - this one from MPF Research - says vacancy fell to 4.3% from 4.4% across the country's top 100 markets.
- Where the two reports both agree, however, is that there were significant construction deliveries during Q3 and a full pipeline of new construction going forward, suggesting neither vacancies nor rents have a lot of room improvement.
- The potential weakening fundamentals come as apartment REITs have been this year's top-performing REIT sectors (make that any sector) with a total return of 23.65% YTD. Can the outperformance continue?
- Names of interest are almost all having a big day today as interest rates continue to fall. One suspects that as long as rates stay low and first-time homebuyers or those with less-than-perfect credit have trouble getting mortgages, the apartment REITs might still get a bid: EQR, AVB, ESS, PPS, UDR, AIV, CPT, HME, MAA, AEC, IRET, TSRE
Oct. 10, 2014, 11:42 AM
- The FTSE NAREIT All REITs Index gained 13.08 during the year's first nine months, and had a dividend yield of 4.31% as of September 30. The S&P 500 had a total return of 8.34% over the same period, and a dividend yield of 2.06%.
- The big YTD performance comes even after a 2.63% decline in the just-ended Q3 (vs. the S&P's 1.13% decline).
- Apartment REITs (EQR, AVB, ESS, PPS, UDR, to name a few) have been the biggest winner so far this year, with total return of 20.29% In second place at 16.76% are self-storage REITs (PSA, SSS, CUBE, EXR).
- Mortgage REITs (REM, MORT, MORL) had a total return of 12.69%.
- Broad REIT ETFs: IYR, VNQ, WPS, VNQI, DRN, RWX, URE, SRS, RWR, SCHH, ICF, RWO, IFGL, DRV, KBWY, DRW, REK, FRI, GRI, FTY, FFR, RWXL, PSR, WREI, REET
AVB vs. ETF Alternatives
Other News & PR