Avanex Corp. (AVNX)

All Comments on AVNX

  • commenter
    SeekingAlpha
    Editors
    Apr 06 05:17 AM
    My Website
    General Discussion on AVNX
    Is this a buy or a sell? Reply
  • commenter
    sunrises
    Jan 31 03:06 PM
    Earnings Preview: Stocks That Beat, Miss Most Often [view article]
    Is it advisable to sell cvx prior to earnings report at 2-3% loss or wait through the volatilty? Reply
  • commenter
    five whys
    May 16 01:32 AM
    My Website
    Reading Between the Lines To Spot the Next Cisco [view article]
    Good discussion & information here.. thanks for sharing your paper Yishai.

    This proves back William's point as well - going "lean" does sound like a cover, at-least for last quarter.

    One another point though, if you look at the PCB b-b ratio, Q4 b/b was     Reply
  • commenter
    yishai
    May 12 12:41 PM
    My Website
    Reading Between the Lines To Spot the Next Cisco [view article]
    The following was written in 2005 (I will post a link the paper once i post the paper online...)
    For a company that has suffered so much due to improper inventory levels not to treat inventory optimization as its top priority might seem strange at first glance. However, when looking at what is driving Cisco’s supply chain operations (by looking at metrics for example) one realizes Cisco is focusing on a possible cause for this past massive inventory buildup, namely: inconsistency. Inconsistent product lead times was considered a major issue for Cisco, a problem Cisco considered solved with its current “21 day lead time” policy, which puts a greater emphasis on lead time consistency than on shortening these lead times. In fact, while Cisco might be currently providing customers with products within this 21 day timeframe for 90%-97% of the time (depending on who you ask), they could reduce these lead times considerably (down to a 5 day lead time with 90%-95% service level according to some managers interviewed). However, the resulting added noise in demand is considered more of a problem than the longer lead times. According to one Cisco manager “it’s better to be consistent and longer than noisy and shorter”.     Reply
  • commenter
    schmitt
    May 11 02:07 PM
    My Website
    Reading Between the Lines To Spot the Next Cisco [view article]
    I'd like to read the paper Yishai but cannot find it. Please post a link or contact me through the contact form on my site.

    nyquistcapital.com     Reply
  • commenter
    William
    Trent
    May 11 01:26 PM
    Reading Between the Lines To Spot the Next Cisco [view article]
    TradeRadar - True. But that makes it all the more unlikely that they would go from 15 weeks to 5 all at once. In the interest of avoiding disruption even if the system could take them from 15 to 5 I would expect them to go 15 to 14, 13 and so on.

    The comment, to me, sounded as if Cisco was making an abrupt change in their ordering patterns. I just don't believe they could or would ever do that.     Reply
  • commenter
    TradeRadarOp
    erator
    May 11 01:19 PM
    My Website
    Reading Between the Lines To Spot the Next Cisco [view article]
    Your article certainly makes some good points but I wanted to comment on the statement asking why Cisco didn't go to 5 weeks of inventory years ago. In years past, I worked for a company that sold an inventory management solution for high tech manufacturers and repair centers. The complexities are extremely challenging and for a company the size of Cisco, it is quite likely that a reliable solution wasn't available years ago. When a supply chain management solution fails to deliver on its promise, it can be very disruptive and I'm sure Cisco was unwilling to accept too much risk in this area until the technology was more proven. Given the assembly, burn-in and test cycles of complex network equipment, 5 weeks of inventory is pretty slim. Reply
  • commenter
    William
    Trent
    May 11 07:12 AM
    Reading Between the Lines To Spot the Next Cisco [view article]
    Thanks for both comments.

    It is definitely more important to have reliability than low inventory or short lead times. My point, though, is that LEAN doesn't seem to explain Cisco's order slowdown this quarter. It just seems like a cover story for everyone.     Reply
  • commenter
    yishai
    May 11 06:52 AM
    My Website
    Reading Between the Lines To Spot the Next Cisco [view article]
    Hi William,
    I believe you may be able to find some possible answers to your questions about the introduction of LEAN (which is a long running project with Cisco) and the reduction of lead times (sometimes consistency is as important as short lead times) in a paper I wrote for the M.I.T. SC2020 project on Cisco and Lucent's supply chains. If you have trouble finding it online, let me know.
    Yishai     Reply
  • commenter
    schmitt
    May 10 07:58 PM
    My Website
    Reading Between the Lines To Spot the Next Cisco [view article]
    Nice article.

    The answer is pretty simple. The inventory is still there, it just isn't at Cisco. It's sitting on the supplier shelves as they now have to stock buffer inventory so their customers can have lean inventory. Worse yet, it is sitting on a distributor shelf and the supplier is paying points for it.     Reply
  • commenter
    Kirk
    Lindstrom
    Mar 12 09:22 AM
    My Website
    Fiber Optics Market: Benefiting from the Online Video Trend [view article]
    Good article
    Boring chart www.investorhives.com/...
    I'm long since buying between $1.01 to $1.99 but this long, slow period and all this video demand has me considering adding even more. I thought a good correction would give a better price but it seems to be holding up well.
    Kirk out     Reply
  • commenter
    schmitt
    Oct 17 12:13 PM
    My Website
    Finisar Meets Luxtera at Gilder Telecosm [view article]
    I think you are wrong on FNSR. I used to think the same but have corrected myself. Reply
  • commenter
    numinary
    Oct 16 03:27 PM
    Finisar Meets Luxtera at Gilder Telecosm [view article]
    Regarding Luxtera technology as a panacea for 100G, as noted they currently have some deficiencies such as (a) operate at only 1550nm wavelength, (b) Si modulators have no capability to offer phase control necessary for phase shift keying or other modulation techniques, (c) modulator technology does not offer good extinction ratio for longer distance signal propagation, (d) laser chips must be custom designed to correctly mount to their IC platform. The Luxtera technology is very interesting, but as the entire communications industry revolves around published standards, Luxtera is in a bit of a bind -- their tech does not line up well with any of the existing standards. Luxtera will sell custom interfaces as they try to manipulate their technology and the emerging standards to line up better with one another.

    FNSR is in the midst of a squeeze as low cost high volume optical module shops from Asia provide constant pressure, while at the high end they have had little to no success at 10G modules. This is why it is critical for them to continue to invest in 10G and other markets. Of course good companies tend to use challenges such as this as a mechanism to develop new expertise and remain market leaders -- it remains to be seen if FNSR can do this, but they have a better chance than other public optical module companies.     Reply
  • commenter
    schmitt
    Oct 16 02:57 PM
    My Website
    Finisar Meets Luxtera at Gilder Telecosm [view article]
    My article should read 1550, not 1310. Theoretically it could work at 1550. Is this the help you needed?

    How are you Bill?     Reply
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