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BlackBerry

6/20/2013, 5:03 AM ET

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Wednesday, June 19, 8:11 AM BlackBerry (BBRY) slips 3% premarket after a downgrade to Sell at Bernstein, which sees earnings peaking in FQ1 and "significant risk" of a miss in H2. OTR Global says U.K. Q10 sales fell off a cliff and have been - "not a typo" - just 30K-50K units since launch, reports Notable Calls. 89 Comments [Tech, On the Move]
Tuesday, June 18, 12:38 PM BlackBerry (BBRY +4.3%) gets a lift from a positive note from RBC's Mark Sue (Market Perform), who now thinks 3.5M BB10 phones were shipped in the May quarter (up from a prior 2.75M) thanks to new Z10 carrier deals and channel fill. Sue adds "BB10 demand appears to be mixed by region," with the U.K., Canada, and the Middle East seeing the strongest sales, and U.S. demand weaker. He now expects BlackBerry to report above-consensus FQ1 revenue and EPS on June 28, and thinks heavy short interest (32% of float shorted) could lead to a squeeze. (Deutsche) 15 Comments [Tech, On the Move]
Monday, June 17, 4:31 PM More on BlackBerry: Digitimes reports supplier order visibility has risen to 2-3 quarters from a prior 1 quarter, thanks to BlackBerry's (BBRY -1%) plans to release 3-4 models in 2H. Two of the phones - the Q5 and A10 - have already received plenty of ink , but details about additional devices are unknown. Thorsten Heins has said BB7 phones aimed at emerging markets will arrive, and that his idea lineup involves 6 phones. Digitimes adds Z10 and Q10 shipments have remained in the 1M/month range. (component purchase report) 25 Comments [Tech]
Monday, June 17, 2:54 PM After opening higher, BlackBerry (BBRY -1.6%) has slumped in the wake of another critical note from Deutsche's Brian Modoff. Though believing BlackBerry's FQ1 results (due June 28) could beat estimates, Modoff says BB10 checks have been mixed, with Europe a weak spot. He's also worried about Q5 demand in emerging markets due to possible pricing and app fragmentation issues, and mentions BlackBerry's U.K. managing director "abruptly left the company this week." (previous) 32 Comments [Tech]
Friday, June 14, 1:22 PM U.K. carriers Orange and T-Mobile have begun taking orders for the BlackBerry Q5 (BBRY +0.1%): each is offering the phone for free with a 2-year, £26/month ($41/month) plan. Meanwhile, retailer Unlocked-mobiles is selling the phone contract-free for a steep £350 ($550), and says it will ship on July 15. To a large extent, the mid-range Q5 was created with emerging markets in mind. (May announcement) (Wells Fargo) 24 Comments [Tech]
Friday, June 14, 10:17 AM "Anecdotal checks" indicate strong U.S. demand for the Q10 (particularly among business users) and soft Z10 demand, says Wells Fargo, which is raising its FQ2 (Aug. quarter) revenue and EPS estimates for BlackBery (BBRY +2.5%) to $3.4B and $0.15 (consensus is at $3.3B and $0.12) . Wells, which has a valuation range of $19-$20, also thinks the consensus for FQ1 BB10 sales has risen to ~3.5M, sees possible upside to its FQ1 and FY14 estimates, and believes shares could "react favorably" if BlackBerry simply meets FY14 forecasts. 1M Q5 sales are forecast for FQ2. (SocGen) (Jefferies) 27 Comments [Tech, On the Move]
Thursday, June 13, 11:40 AM More on SocGen's upgrade of BlackBerry (BBRY +4.8%): Analyst Andy Perkins says checks indicate FQ1 (May quarter) BB10 phone sales may have topped 5M, which is soundly above a 3M-4M consensus. He also still thinks "there is demand for the 9220, 9320 and 9900 [BB7] handsets but that this is falling rapidly." 25 Comments [Tech]
Thursday, June 13, 9:41 AM SocGen gives BlackBerry (BBRY +3%) a two-notch upgrade to Buy, helping shares open higher. The firm has lifted its PT to $17 from $13, and reportedly forecasts BB10 sales well above consensus. FQ1 results are due on June 28. 45 Comments [Tech, On the Move]
Tuesday, June 11, 1:24 PM App fragmentation could be a problem for BB10 (BBRY -1.4%), warns Strategy Analytics' Neil Shah. Whereas the touch-only Z10 has a display with a 1.67:1 aspect ratio (1280x768 resolution), the QWERTY-sporting Q10's display has a 1:1 ratio (720x720 resolution). That means developers, many of whom are already inclined to write for iOS and Android before BB10, have to "specially tweak" apps originally written for the Z10 to work with the Q10 (and soon the Q5). Thorsten Heins declared last month there are 120K BB10 apps available, up from 70K in January. 38 Comments [Tech]
Friday, June 7, 2:01 PM Calendar Q2 iPhone (AAPL +0.6%) sales are trending towards ~30M (above a ~27M consensus), says Jefferies' Peter Misek in an info-packed note. Misek also: 1) Believes Apple has set aggressive Q3 and Q4 iPhone build plans, with nearly half the Q4 builds involving a cheaper iPhone. 2) States the iPad Mini is "cannibalizing more than expected," and expects the current model to be kept and discounted after a retina model launches. 3) Expects the 5th-gen iPad to be ~50% lighter and 30%-40% thinner. 4) Thinks AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ) are talking with Chinese white-box OEMs about selling carrier-branded phones, in an effort to cut subsidy costs. 5) Believes consumer BlackBerry Z10 (BBRY +0.5%) sales have slowed, but that Q10 sales are better than expected. 43 Comments [Tech]
Thursday, June 6, 1:31 PM A tweet from T-Mobile U.K. stating iOS/Android BlackBerry Messenger (BBRY +1.2%) apps will arrive on June 27 is inaccurate, BlackBerry tells The Verge. The tweet has been deleted from T-Mobile U.K.'s Twitter stream. BlackBerry stated last month the apps will arrive this summer. 8 Comments [Tech]
Thursday, June 6, 11:49 AM BlackBerry Messenger (BBRY +1.5%) will arrive on iOS and Android on June 27, tweets T-Mobile U.K. The news comes a day after BlackBerry COO Kristian Tear disclosed his company his talking with rivals about having BBM pre-installed on their Android phones. Update: BlackBerry says the tweet isn't accurate. T-Mobile U.K. has deleted it. 8 Comments [Tech]
Wednesday, June 5, 4:53 PM BlackBerry (BBRY +0.6%) is talking with rival OEMs about having BlackBerry Messenger pre-installed on their phones, says COO Kristian Tear; the remarks come a month after BlackBerry announced iOS/Android versions of BBM would arrive this summer, exciting some investors and stoking fears among others of less hardware differentiation. BBM claims a base of 61M active users (many of them in emerging markets), with 70% of them using it daily. The iOS/Android apps will face competition from WhatsApp (200M+ users and #2 in Google Play free download rankings), Skype (#3), and Facebook Messenger (#4), among others. 55 Comments [Tech]
Wednesday, June 5, 2:24 PM BlackBerry's (BBRY +1.3%) next touch-only flagship BB10 phone will be called the A10, launch in November, and be sold by Sprint, CNET reports, while providing scant details about its specs. Following the launch, the touch-only Z10 and QWERTY-sporting Q10 will reportedly be sold as mid-range devices (is a Q10 successor also on tap?). AllThingsD reported in March Sprint will sell a Z10 successor in 2H. 41 Comments [Tech, Breaking News]
Tuesday, June 4, 4:29 PM AT&T will begin taking orders for the BlackBerry Q10 (BBRY -0.5%) tomorrow; the device goes for a subsidized $200. BlackBerry stated last month Verizon and T-Mobile will begin selling the Q10 in June, and Sprint in "late summer." The emerging markets-focused Q5 launches in July. Opinions on U.K./Canadian Q10 sales have differed considerably (I, II). 27 Comments [Tech]
Monday, June 3, 4:36 PM BlackBerry (BBRY -2.4%) fell once more today. A possible trigger: Kantar Worldpanel estimated BlackBerry accounted for just 0.7% of U.S. smartphone sales from February-April, in spite of AT&T and Verizon's late-March Z10 launches. The number is down from the 5.3% estimated for a year ago, and also the 0.9% estimated for January-March. SA contributor Elephant Analytics argues Kantar tends to understate high-end phone sales. 54 Comments [Tech, On the Move]

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