Nov. 11, 2013, 10:57 AM
- Those who follow ViroPharma (VPHM +25.5%) likely aren't too surprised by the Shire (SHPG +1.2%) takeout.
- The acquisition rumors have been flying for months and the deal does appear to make strategic sense given SHPG's existing HAE sales force (Firazyr). Here's
Flemming Ornskov: "SHPG is uniquely positioned to drive the continued success of Cinryze ... through our knowledge of the rare disease space, our international infrastructure and our biologics manufacturing expertise."
- SHPG will now be able to offer HAE patients complementary treatments.
- The rare disease business is now expected to comprise ~40% of SHPG's top-line.
- Deutsche's Robyn Karnauskas was pretty close back in September, predicting $52/share in a SHPG bid. Notably, Karnauskas modeled "100% probability [of] Maribavir sales in refractory CMV."
- Notably not moving on the news are shares of BioCryst (BCRX -0.4%) — the company is developing an oral option for HAE.
Sep. 18, 2013, 10:47 AM
- Details are out on BofA/ML's ViroPharma (VPHM -1.1%) downgrade and the color is pretty interesting.
- Rachel McMinn thinks "longer term risks" for Cinryze "could affect" the company's M&A prospects.
- The "biggest risk" flagged by McMinn is (of course) BioCryst's (BCRX +4.3%) BCX4161, repeatedly highlighted in our previous coverage as a potential HAE game changer (it's an oral solution as opposed to sub-Q).
- "VPHM's share price reflects a not insignificant chance of the company being acquired," McMinn notes, but cautions that "based on the product-related risks, [she] sees [no] basis to increase" the price objective ($34).
Sep. 14, 2013, 11:16 AM
- On Friday, Deutsche's Robyn Karnauskas put fair value for ViroPharma (VPHM) in a takeout at $46-52/share. For those curious, details are out regarding the rationale.
- If Shire (SHPG) ends up bidding, Karnauskas sees 70% SG&A synergies and $52/share. SHPG presumably has a hereditary angioedema sales force that would work out nicely thanks to Firazyr.
- For a bidder with no existing HAE sales force, Karnauskas sees $46/share and 25% SG&A synergies.
- Deutsche is modeling "100% probability [of] Maribavir sales in refractory CMV."
- Keep an eye on BioCryst (BCRX) going forward: An oral option for HAE represented by BCX4161 may shakeup a market currently dominated by injectable solutions. BCRX also has a 2nd Gen kallikrein inhibitor in the works.
- Another kallikrein inhibitor: Dyax's (DYAX) Kalbitor
- See previous coverage of the prospective deal here
Sep. 13, 2013, 1:26 PM
- News that ViroPharma (VPHM +24.9%) may have hired Goldman to help the company explore a possible sale won't surprise those who have followed the stock this year.
- Back in June, the shares spiked suddenly after Reuters said the firm had attracted preliminary interest from several potential suitors.
- A buyer would get Cinryze, VPHM's HAE treatment which some say could reach peak sales of $800M by 2020. Cinryze sales in Q2 were $91M, up 22% Y/Y.
- There's also the pipeline catalyst maribavir, which the sell-side thinks could provide meaningful upside (Deutsche in June: 50% chance of $220M in peak sales; Jefferies in June: Maribavir may be "biggest potential source of upside").
- Also moving predictably higher on the news is BioCryst (BCRX +3.1%), whose BCX4161 also treats HAE.
BCRX vs. ETF Alternatives
Biocryst Pharmaceuticals Inc. is engaged in the design, optimization and development of novel drugs that block key enzymes involved in the pathogenesis of diseases. Its drug candidates include Peramivir, BCX4161, Forodesine and Ulodesine, among others.
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