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- China ADRs: Mixed July
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Options Trader: Friday Outlook [view article]
Now, you see, that is exactly the kind of baseless and totally false information I'm talking about!Here is the EIAs April 2008 Monthly report which clearly shows that the global oil supply was 84.64Mbd in 2005, 84.60 in 2006 and 84.59 in 2007 - flat as a pancake.
www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/i...
While they also do show an increase in demand from 84.62Mbd in 2006 to 85.35Mbd in 2007, the fact of the matter is that global inventories were 3,586Bn barrels in Q1 '07 and are at 3,534 in Q1 '08, a 52M barrel draw over 12 months, NOT 30 days!
www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/s...
The projection for Q2 is for a build of 63Mb to 3,597 IN ONE QUARTER because demand is falling off a cliff and this increased supply is projected to hold steady through 2009.
In short, there is no shortage of supply, simply a growing shortage of demand. Mexico's production in Q4 was 3.35Mbd and in Q1 was 3.30, hardly 5%. Other countries are not broken down in the report but I'd love to see the list you are working from that contradicts the IEA by such a massive amount.
I urge anyone reading these discussions to seek out the facts for yourself, do not believe what you are being spoon-fed, either by the media or by anonymous posters who throw "facts" out without bothering to cite sources.
Reply
and bristol
fashion
Options Trader: Friday Outlook [view article]
Enter your comment hereRussia saw crude production fall nearly 4% in Q1. Mexico lost nearly 5%, Venezuela -5%, Nigeria -5%. Over a dozen countries saw production fall more than 2%. Only 2 countries saw production increase by a material amount, Saudi Arabia and Angola.Oil won't come down. Reply
Options Trader: Friday Outlook [view article]
Oil needs to come down. Oil will come down.I dont much understand why prices have to skyrocket so so much more than demand. Im sorry but pricing for suspicion of future supply/demand problems doesnt get it for me. This stuff should be priced at a supply/demand rate that looks out only a fairly short time - pricing ih oil armagedon is not useful nor truthful at this point.
With the supply situation right now, /at least/ the front-month contracts should be around 95 /at most/ -- and I prefer $65 as closer to the truth for the front-month.
If hording is going on then perhaps there is truth in some of the what... 40% rise in oil in the last year, but Ill believe hording is going on if you can tell me theres been a marked increase in barrels actually being delivered.
Im glad we hit the breaking point. Congress crying, drivers staying home so they can afford to buy nice compact 36mpg vehicles with their cash (since no one will give em a loan)... it all means that oil is about to recede -- and if its true to its nature itll recede with a BANG as all the crooks get out of the trade to bring oil back down before the cops step in so they can play the game again sometime.
I think this time will be a little different in that when it does stabilize lower the dips will be bought pretty agressively, so it may not languish long as the second-strikers get their chance to get in.
Im tempted to play oil short -- Jack be nimble...
Reply
Options Trader: Friday Outlook [view article]
User 198 - These are just exerpts that SA takes from my membership site. All those details are discussed in the member section and the web site is linked at the top of the page. Those were day trades from the day before, we had long Apple calls that we UNcovered on the dip on Thursday and held naked overnight. BIDU was a call we picked up on yesterday's close that we escaped even this morning.Well Al, on Wednesday our screens told us to go short on XOM, CVX, SU, USO and HES as oil topped $133 and today we cashed most of them out to give you a chance to buy them back up "on the dip." If it weren't for people like you and Ship Shape, we'd have no one to buy puts from so I'm not even going to try to change your mind. In fact, we even grabbed XOM $95 calls at the close so please, go to town on Monday, we'll be shorting again when you get to around Wednesday's close - have a great weekend!
Reply
and bristol
fashion
Options Trader: Friday Outlook [view article]
People lining up before gas stations before a price hike. Yes that is sufficient evidence for me to say that oil demand will drop after the price hike.Mr Davis do you really believe what you write? And if you really believe what you write you must have a very narrow vision. It is time to realize, that the Chinese have huge savings rates. We do not. In other words they can afford it. We do not. Because we are busy complaining instead of getting more efficient. Reply
Options Trader: Friday Outlook [view article]
Here is a tip Phil. Take everything to do with oil off your screen. It isn't really as important as you think! You need to move on because its getting really pitiful.Reply
Options Trader: Friday Outlook [view article]
What do you mean? Are you covering shorts or writing covered calls. Caught a break on Apple sounds like you are long. Baidu are you selling or just not doing anything. Please explain. Thanks. ReplyBaidu: Riding the Chinese Internet Dragon [view article]
212,5% not 3125% ReplyTiger Global - Portfolio Holdings [view article]
It would help to know what is the date of this holding? Otherwise it has no meaning. ReplyBaidu: Riding the Chinese Internet Dragon [view article]
My condolences and best wishes to the great Chinese people. It is a time of sadness and inspiration. May God bless you all.Baidu is a fabulous company. A crown jewel of the new China.
May I also point out that China Netcom's partner MYST.OB is also a great company to watch in the coming months.
MYST.OB is about to launch Subaye English B2B site. A direct competitor to Alibaba English. \
Certainly, MYST.OB should be watch closely.
Reply
Filloon
(legmaker)
Sina Should Beat Earnings in a Google-Like Fashion [view article]
Currently SINA is up 3.8% since recommendation. If you would like to see how some of my other recommendations are doing check my blog at:www.updown.com/userBlo...
PWAV another favorite, doing well after earnings. Reply
Sina Should Beat Earnings in a Google-Like Fashion [view article]
Wow, I actually bought some June $60 calls this afternoon and am glad I did....Tomorrow will be fun!!! Replykandola
Sina Should Beat Earnings in a Google-Like Fashion [view article]
SINA would rock tonight ! ReplyBaidu: A Train Heading for Derailment? [view article]
its come to my attention that when China sparks, it will all go up in flames. where will that leave us, krueger? you can't change the market in one article, but when the prices for oil change you will be jobless and the evidence of this valiant effort will cease to exist. ReplyFilloon
(legmaker)
Sina Should Beat Earnings in a Google-Like Fashion [view article]
Thank you weng ho teng for your comment, do you have any info on MYST.OB? I think this entire space looks good going forward, seems to be insulated from over all economic environment and has great growth as a kicker. Reply