Thu, Apr. 30, 1:27 PM
- Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU) has made fresh 2015 lows after missing Q1 revenue estimates (while beating on EPS) and providing slightly soft Q2 sales guidance. Shares are still well above a 52-week low of $148.44.
- The decline comes even as many on the sell-side defend Baidu, often while highlighting its strong mobile growth. Pac Crest sees Baidu getting over 60% of its revenue from mobile by year's end, up from Q1's 50% and Q4's 42%. It also thinks Baidu's "spending on online-to-offline [services] is starting to bear fruit, with progress in food delivery, movie ticketing and Baidu Wallet, which saw 26 million connected active users." Credit Suisse is also pleased with the online-to-offline growth, as well as better-than-expected Q1 margins.
- On the CC (transcript), CEO Robin Li stated Baidu's Q1 mobile search monthly active users (MAUs) totaled 600M, up from Q4's 540M, and that mobile maps MAUs reached 270M. He also mentioned Baidu is looking to grow its local/mobile search ad sales by allowing advertisers to bid on ads aimed at users in one of 300 Chinese cities.
Wed, Apr. 29, 5:07 PM
- In addition to missing Q1 revenue estimates (while beating on EPS), Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU) is guiding for Q2 revenue of RMB16.365B-RMB16.75B (+36.5%-37.5% Y/Y and equal to $2.64B-$2.7B), slightly below an RMB16.65B consensus at the midpoint.
- On the bright side, mobile was 50% of Q1 revenue, up sharply from Q4's 42% and Q3's 36%. CEO Robin Li: "Baidu is redefining the search box by building an ecosystem to connect people with services and drive closed loop transactions ... we plan to fully exploit the huge growth potential ahead -- in mobile marketing, online to offline, and key select verticals such as healthcare, education and financial services..."
- Q1 online ad customers totaled 524K, nearly flat Q/Q and up 17.5% Y/Y. Revenue per online ad customer was $3,839, down 9.8% Q/Q (seasonality played a role) and up 13.9% Y/Y.
- Traffic acquisition cost growth appears to have slowed: TAC was 13.5% of revenue vs. 13.4% in Q4 and 12.4% a year ago. Also lifting EPS: SG&A spend fell 16.1% Q/Q to $477M, presumably due to lower promotional spend for Baidu products/services. On a Y/Y basis, SG&A spend rose 47.2% Y/Y (Q4 growth was 89.2%). R&D spend rose 79.1% Y/Y to $368.8M, up from Q4's 69% clip.
- BIDU -1.5% AH to $215.65.
- Q1 results, PR
Wed, Apr. 29, 4:39 PM
Tue, Apr. 28, 5:35 PM
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Wed, Feb. 11, 5:12 PM
- In addition to missing Q4 revenue estimates (while slightly beating on EPS), Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU) is guiding for Q1 revenue of RMB12.645B-RMB13.065B ($2.038B-$2.106B), below an RMB13.62B consensus. Guidance reflects "the combined impact of both the late timing of Chinese New Year this year and mobile's growing traffic contribution, which monetizes at a rate lower than that of PC."
- Mobile rose to 42% of revenue in Q4 from 36% in Q3. Online ad customers rose 16% Y/Y but just 1.4% Q/Q to 523K; revenue per online ad customer rose 26.3% Y/Y but just 1.9% Q/Q to $4,255.
- Traffic acquisition costs rose to 13.4% of revenue from 12.9% in Q3 and 12.3% a year ago (mobile, hao123 portal promotions, and contextual ads were responsible). SG&A spend soared 89.2% Y/Y to $568M, and R&D spend 69% to $344.2M.
- BIDU -8.1% AH to $197.26.
- Q4 results, PR
Wed, Feb. 11, 4:36 PM
Tue, Feb. 10, 5:35 PM
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Fri, Jan. 23, 12:15 PM
- Baidu's (BIDU +1.1%) Q4 report will arrive after the close on Wednesday, Feb. 11. CC at 8PM ET.
- Consensus is for revenue of RMB14.14B ($2.27B, +48.5% Y/Y) and EPS of RMB9.89 ($1.59). Shares +3% since the Chinese search giant provided mixed Q3 results, slightly soft guidance, and strong mobile metrics on Oct. 29.
- Deutsche recently offered positive pre-earnings commentary, and Brean did the same a few days later.
Oct. 29, 2014, 5:13 PM
- Baidu's (NASDAQ:BIDU) mobile traffic surpassed its PC traffic in Q3, and generated 36% of revenue. Three months ago, Baidu disclosed mobile was over 30% of Q2 revenue, and that it had 500M+ mobile search active users in June.
- Active online ad customers +5.7% Q/Q and +11.2% Y/Y to 516K. Revenue/customer +7% Q/Q and +35.6% Y/Y to $4,220 (drove much of the top-line growth).
- Traffic acquisition costs rose to 12.9% of revenue from 12.7% in Q2 and 11.7% a year ago. Content costs (video-driven) rose to 3.7% of revenue from 2.5% a year ago, and bandwidth costs fell to 5.6% from 5.8%.
- SG&A spend +95% Y/Y to $439.9M, thanks largely to strong mobile promotional spending. R&D spend +68% to $298.4M.
- Y/Y revenue growth slipped to 52% in Q3 from 58.5% in Q2. Q4 guidance implies 48% growth at the midpoint
- BIDU +0.4% AH. Q3 results, PR.
Oct. 29, 2014, 4:36 PM
Oct. 28, 2014, 5:35 PM
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Jul. 25, 2014, 5:32 PM
- Goldman has raised its 2014-2016 Baidu (BIDU +10.9%) EPS estimates by 17%-23% following its sizable Q2 EPS beat and above-consensus Q3 guidance, and hiked its target by $35 to $260. BofA/Merrill, Deutsche, and Piper have also raised their Baidu PTs.
- Goldman was pleased with several datapoints provided in the Q2 report and CC (transcript). Among them: 1) Baidu topped 500M mobile search monthly active users (MAUs) in June. 2) Maps MAUs have passed 200M. 3) Baidu's app distribution platforms (led by 91 Wireless) averaged 130M downloads/day in Q2. 4) The Nuomi daily deals unit (acquired from Renren) has seen its user base double since Q4.
- BofA/Merrill observes Baidu's aggressive spending growth is now being fueled more by hiring than by marketing spend, something it expects will translate into future leverage. Marketing spend fell to 11.5% of revenue from 14.1% in Q1, while R&D grew to 14.6% from 13.6%.
- Baidu made fresh highs today, and provided a lift to rivals Qihoo (QIHU +3.7%) and Sohu (SOHU +2.2%) along the way.
Jul. 24, 2014, 4:57 PM
- Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU) expects Q3 revenue of RMB13.42B-RMB13.78B ($2.16B-$2.22B), above an RMB13.28B consensus.
- Q2 Y/Y revenue growth of 58.5% was nearly even with Q1's 59.1%, and remained well above Q4's 50.4%. Active online ad customers rose 4.3% Q/Q and 9.4% Y/Y to 488K. More impressively, revenue/customer rose 15.8% Q/Q and 50.3% Y/Y to $3,901.
- SG&A spend +99.3% to $346.4M (heavy mobile promotional activity), R&D spend +84.5% to $280M. The former's growth rate slowed from Q1's 136.9% (contributed to the EPS beat), while the latter's picked up from Q1's 57.5%.
- Traffic acquisition costs rose to 12.7% of revenue from 12.4% in Q1 and 11.6% a year ago. Bandwidth costs fell to 5.8% of revenue from 6% a year ago, and content costs (online video-driven) rose to 3% from 2%.
- Mobile accounted for over 30% of revenue for the first time.
- Q2 results, PR
Jul. 24, 2014, 4:32 PM
Jul. 23, 2014, 5:35 PM
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Jul. 3, 2014, 1:14 PM
- Surging mobile search activity and a narrowing cost-per-click (ad price) gap relative to PC search will allow Baidu (BIDU +0.5%) to post Q2 revenue of RMB12B ($1.93B, +59.3% Y/Y), predicts Deutsche. The consensus is at RMB11.95B.
- Deutsche doesn't think new mobile search competition has done much damage to Baidu. Alibaba recently took full ownership of top Chinese mobile browser vendor UCWeb, which claims a 20%+ share of the local mobile search market. Qihoo, which has been grabbing PC search share from Baidu, launched a mobile search app in June.
- Baidu declared on its Q1 CC (transcript) it had 160M mobile search DAUs during the quarter (up from 130M two quarters earlier), and that it expects mobile to "surpass PC as the biggest source of search traffic later this year." Analysys estimates Baidu has a combined 73% PC/mobile search page view share.
- Though positive on Baidu's top-line performance, Deutsche is more cautious about its op. margin, and thinks it could see a Q/Q decline bigger than the 60 bps it currently forecasts. Soaring opex - SG&A spend rose 136.9% Y/Y in Q1, and R&D spend 57.5% - has been pressuring Baidu's bottom line.
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