Wed, Feb. 11, 5:12 PM
- In addition to missing Q4 revenue estimates (while slightly beating on EPS), Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU) is guiding for Q1 revenue of RMB12.645B-RMB13.065B ($2.038B-$2.106B), below an RMB13.62B consensus. Guidance reflects "the combined impact of both the late timing of Chinese New Year this year and mobile's growing traffic contribution, which monetizes at a rate lower than that of PC."
- Mobile rose to 42% of revenue in Q4 from 36% in Q3. Online ad customers rose 16% Y/Y but just 1.4% Q/Q to 523K; revenue per online ad customer rose 26.3% Y/Y but just 1.9% Q/Q to $4,255.
- Traffic acquisition costs rose to 13.4% of revenue from 12.9% in Q3 and 12.3% a year ago (mobile, hao123 portal promotions, and contextual ads were responsible). SG&A spend soared 89.2% Y/Y to $568M, and R&D spend 69% to $344.2M.
- BIDU -8.1% AH to $197.26.
- Q4 results, PR
Wed, Feb. 11, 4:36 PM
Tue, Feb. 10, 5:35 PM
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Fri, Jan. 23, 12:15 PM
- Baidu's (BIDU +1.1%) Q4 report will arrive after the close on Wednesday, Feb. 11. CC at 8PM ET.
- Consensus is for revenue of RMB14.14B ($2.27B, +48.5% Y/Y) and EPS of RMB9.89 ($1.59). Shares +3% since the Chinese search giant provided mixed Q3 results, slightly soft guidance, and strong mobile metrics on Oct. 29.
- Deutsche recently offered positive pre-earnings commentary, and Brean did the same a few days later.
Oct. 29, 2014, 5:13 PM
- Baidu's (NASDAQ:BIDU) mobile traffic surpassed its PC traffic in Q3, and generated 36% of revenue. Three months ago, Baidu disclosed mobile was over 30% of Q2 revenue, and that it had 500M+ mobile search active users in June.
- Active online ad customers +5.7% Q/Q and +11.2% Y/Y to 516K. Revenue/customer +7% Q/Q and +35.6% Y/Y to $4,220 (drove much of the top-line growth).
- Traffic acquisition costs rose to 12.9% of revenue from 12.7% in Q2 and 11.7% a year ago. Content costs (video-driven) rose to 3.7% of revenue from 2.5% a year ago, and bandwidth costs fell to 5.6% from 5.8%.
- SG&A spend +95% Y/Y to $439.9M, thanks largely to strong mobile promotional spending. R&D spend +68% to $298.4M.
- Y/Y revenue growth slipped to 52% in Q3 from 58.5% in Q2. Q4 guidance implies 48% growth at the midpoint
- BIDU +0.4% AH. Q3 results, PR.
Oct. 29, 2014, 4:36 PM
Oct. 28, 2014, 5:35 PM
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Jul. 25, 2014, 5:32 PM
- Goldman has raised its 2014-2016 Baidu (BIDU +10.9%) EPS estimates by 17%-23% following its sizable Q2 EPS beat and above-consensus Q3 guidance, and hiked its target by $35 to $260. BofA/Merrill, Deutsche, and Piper have also raised their Baidu PTs.
- Goldman was pleased with several datapoints provided in the Q2 report and CC (transcript). Among them: 1) Baidu topped 500M mobile search monthly active users (MAUs) in June. 2) Maps MAUs have passed 200M. 3) Baidu's app distribution platforms (led by 91 Wireless) averaged 130M downloads/day in Q2. 4) The Nuomi daily deals unit (acquired from Renren) has seen its user base double since Q4.
- BofA/Merrill observes Baidu's aggressive spending growth is now being fueled more by hiring than by marketing spend, something it expects will translate into future leverage. Marketing spend fell to 11.5% of revenue from 14.1% in Q1, while R&D grew to 14.6% from 13.6%.
- Baidu made fresh highs today, and provided a lift to rivals Qihoo (QIHU +3.7%) and Sohu (SOHU +2.2%) along the way.
Jul. 24, 2014, 4:57 PM
- Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU) expects Q3 revenue of RMB13.42B-RMB13.78B ($2.16B-$2.22B), above an RMB13.28B consensus.
- Q2 Y/Y revenue growth of 58.5% was nearly even with Q1's 59.1%, and remained well above Q4's 50.4%. Active online ad customers rose 4.3% Q/Q and 9.4% Y/Y to 488K. More impressively, revenue/customer rose 15.8% Q/Q and 50.3% Y/Y to $3,901.
- SG&A spend +99.3% to $346.4M (heavy mobile promotional activity), R&D spend +84.5% to $280M. The former's growth rate slowed from Q1's 136.9% (contributed to the EPS beat), while the latter's picked up from Q1's 57.5%.
- Traffic acquisition costs rose to 12.7% of revenue from 12.4% in Q1 and 11.6% a year ago. Bandwidth costs fell to 5.8% of revenue from 6% a year ago, and content costs (online video-driven) rose to 3% from 2%.
- Mobile accounted for over 30% of revenue for the first time.
- Q2 results, PR
Jul. 24, 2014, 4:32 PM
Jul. 23, 2014, 5:35 PM
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Jul. 3, 2014, 1:14 PM
- Surging mobile search activity and a narrowing cost-per-click (ad price) gap relative to PC search will allow Baidu (BIDU +0.5%) to post Q2 revenue of RMB12B ($1.93B, +59.3% Y/Y), predicts Deutsche. The consensus is at RMB11.95B.
- Deutsche doesn't think new mobile search competition has done much damage to Baidu. Alibaba recently took full ownership of top Chinese mobile browser vendor UCWeb, which claims a 20%+ share of the local mobile search market. Qihoo, which has been grabbing PC search share from Baidu, launched a mobile search app in June.
- Baidu declared on its Q1 CC (transcript) it had 160M mobile search DAUs during the quarter (up from 130M two quarters earlier), and that it expects mobile to "surpass PC as the biggest source of search traffic later this year." Analysys estimates Baidu has a combined 73% PC/mobile search page view share.
- Though positive on Baidu's top-line performance, Deutsche is more cautious about its op. margin, and thinks it could see a Q/Q decline bigger than the 60 bps it currently forecasts. Soaring opex - SG&A spend rose 136.9% Y/Y in Q1, and R&D spend 57.5% - has been pressuring Baidu's bottom line.
Jun. 11, 2014, 2:39 PM
- Acquisition-hungry Alibaba (ABABA) is buying the 1/3 of top Chinese mobile browser vendor UCWeb it doesn't yet own for a mixture of cash and stock. The price hasn't been disclosed, but Alibaba claims the deal is the biggest Chinese Web merger in history, exceeding Baidu's (BIDU +0.4%) $1.9B purchase of app store provider 91 Wireless.
- UCWeb has a 50%+ share of the Chinese mobile browser market, and also has 35% of the Indian market. The company claims 500M total browser users, as well as 50M users for its Android app store, which competes against Baidu and Qihoo's (QIHU +3.8%) popular stores.
- More importantly for Baidu (and also relevant for Qihoo), UCWeb claims a 20%+ share of the Chinese mobile search market on the back of 100M active users. A mobile search JV was launched with Alibaba in April.
- Meanwhile, CNBC reports Alibaba will likely file a new F-1 early next week that includes its Q1 results. Odds are Yahoo (YHOO +0.6%), which has been reporting Alibaba's results a quarter in arrears, will move on the numbers.
- CNBC adds Alibaba is still expected to go public in the first week of August. Bloomberg previously reported Alibaba is eying an Aug. 8 IPO.
May. 23, 2014, 1:00 PM
- Though Youku (YOKU -6.2%) beat Q1 EPS estimates, revenue of $112.7M missed a $114.2M consensus. Moreover, the company is guiding for Q2 revenue of RMB940M-RMB1B ($150.6M-$160.3M), below a $163.5M consensus.
- Maxim Group (PT cut to $16) blames the growth slowdown on Youku's attempts to lower purchases of long-form content preferred by advertisers.
- It believes a "weak content portfolio" led Youku to lose its Chinese online/mobile video leadership positions in Q1 to Baidu's (BIDU +1.7%) iQiyi and PPS platforms. Baidu has been busy promoting iQiyi/PPS throughout its Web empire.
- "Top-line growth seems to be on a deceleration trend," writes Deutsche (PT cut to $21) in response to Youku's numbers. The firm and thinks the Q2 guidance points to weaker advertiser budget hikes.
- Cost controls helped EPS beat estimates: Youku's content spend fell to 44% of revenue in Q1 from 49% a year ago. Bandwidth costs fell to 29% of revenue from 31%, and opex only grew 9% Y/Y (compares with 36% rev. growth).
- On the CC (transcript), Youku mentioned mobile daily video views have topped 400M (they were only at 200M last June), and that mobile now accounts for 1/3 of revenue.
- Q1 results, PR
Apr. 24, 2014, 4:50 PM
- Baidu (BIDU) expects Q2 revenue of RMB11.82B-RMB-12.11B ($1.901B-$1.948B), above a consensus of RMB11.55B.
- Revenue growth accelerated to 59.1% in Q1 from 50.4% in Q4. Online ad customers fell 1.1% Q/Q to 446K after falling 2.8% in Q4, but revenue per ad customer remained steady Q/Q and rose 44.1% Y/Y to RMB20.9K ($3,362).
- As promised, Baidu continues to invest aggressively: SG&A spend soared 136.9% Y/Y to $323.2M, thanks in large to mobile promotional efforts. R&D spend rose 57.5% to $205.4M.
- Traffic acquisition costs rose to 12.4% of revenue from 12.3% in Q4 and 10.2% a year ago. Content costs (fueled by online video licensing) rose to 4.1% of revenue from 3.8% in Q4 and 1.6% a year ago.
- Up in sympathy: SINA +1.6%. SOHU +1%. QIHU +2.6%. YY +1.1%. WB +1.5%. YOKU +1.7%.
- Q1 results, PR
Apr. 24, 2014, 4:37 PM
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