Thu, Apr. 30, 1:27 PM
- Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU) has made fresh 2015 lows after missing Q1 revenue estimates (while beating on EPS) and providing slightly soft Q2 sales guidance. Shares are still well above a 52-week low of $148.44.
- The decline comes even as many on the sell-side defend Baidu, often while highlighting its strong mobile growth. Pac Crest sees Baidu getting over 60% of its revenue from mobile by year's end, up from Q1's 50% and Q4's 42%. It also thinks Baidu's "spending on online-to-offline [services] is starting to bear fruit, with progress in food delivery, movie ticketing and Baidu Wallet, which saw 26 million connected active users." Credit Suisse is also pleased with the online-to-offline growth, as well as better-than-expected Q1 margins.
- On the CC (transcript), CEO Robin Li stated Baidu's Q1 mobile search monthly active users (MAUs) totaled 600M, up from Q4's 540M, and that mobile maps MAUs reached 270M. He also mentioned Baidu is looking to grow its local/mobile search ad sales by allowing advertisers to bid on ads aimed at users in one of 300 Chinese cities.
Wed, Apr. 29, 5:07 PM
- In addition to missing Q1 revenue estimates (while beating on EPS), Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU) is guiding for Q2 revenue of RMB16.365B-RMB16.75B (+36.5%-37.5% Y/Y and equal to $2.64B-$2.7B), slightly below an RMB16.65B consensus at the midpoint.
- On the bright side, mobile was 50% of Q1 revenue, up sharply from Q4's 42% and Q3's 36%. CEO Robin Li: "Baidu is redefining the search box by building an ecosystem to connect people with services and drive closed loop transactions ... we plan to fully exploit the huge growth potential ahead -- in mobile marketing, online to offline, and key select verticals such as healthcare, education and financial services..."
- Q1 online ad customers totaled 524K, nearly flat Q/Q and up 17.5% Y/Y. Revenue per online ad customer was $3,839, down 9.8% Q/Q (seasonality played a role) and up 13.9% Y/Y.
- Traffic acquisition cost growth appears to have slowed: TAC was 13.5% of revenue vs. 13.4% in Q4 and 12.4% a year ago. Also lifting EPS: SG&A spend fell 16.1% Q/Q to $477M, presumably due to lower promotional spend for Baidu products/services. On a Y/Y basis, SG&A spend rose 47.2% Y/Y (Q4 growth was 89.2%). R&D spend rose 79.1% Y/Y to $368.8M, up from Q4's 69% clip.
- BIDU -1.5% AH to $215.65.
- Q1 results, PR
Mon, Apr. 27, 12:17 PM
- Chinese Internet stocks are adding to their big recent gains following a 2.7% overnight rally in Shanghai, as investor sentiment towards Chinese equities continues improving following a string of stimulus moves. Today's gains come with the Nasdaq (took out its 2000 highs on Friday) down 0.2%.
- Baidu (BIDU +3%) is among the winners. Others include Youku (YOKU +10.7%), Vipshop (VIPS +4.1%), Dangdang (DANG +6.7%), 58.com (WUBA +3%), E-House (EJ +3.7%), 500.com (WBAI +4.3%), Sina (SINA +4.1%), Bitauto (BITA +3.1%), Autohome (ATHM +2.4%), Qunar (QUNR +3.5%), Xunlei (XNET +5.7%), and Renren (RENN +2.3%).
- Baidu's gains come ahead of its Wednesday Q1 report. Vipshop and 58.com have made fresh highs; the latter is up 61% since the first report emerged of a deal (later confirmed) with rival Ganji.com. Youku is up 53% from an April 2 post-earnings low of $12.31, and 500.com is up 47% since the company suspended all online lottery sales in early April, while stating it will work with regulators to restart sales. Renren is up 31% from its March 30 close, possibly aided by enthusiasm for its large and growing portfolio of online lending investments.
- JD.com and Sky-mobi are rallying today with the help of bullish analyst notes. Perfect World has received a lift from an improved buyout offer.
- ETFs: KWEB, CQQQ, QQQC
Wed, Apr. 8, 10:58 AM
- Following a big overnight rally in Hong Kong (followed a 3-day holiday during which Shanghai rallied), beaten-down Chinese Internet and mobile stocks have soared in U.S. trading.
- The biggest gainers include many names that are far below their 2014 highs: The group includes Qihoo (QIHU +10.5%), YY (YY +14.9%), Taomee (TAOM +14.3%), Sina (SINA +8.7%), and Weibo (WB +12.1%). Mobile game publishers Sky-mobi (MOBI +12.6%), China Mobile Games (CMGE +8%), and iDreamSky (DSKY +13.4%) are also sharply higher, as are online real estate plays SouFun (SFUN +13.1%), E-House (EJ +6.1%), and Leju (LEJU +9.8%).
- Giants Alibaba (BABA +3.4%) and Baidu (BIDU +4.1%) aren't being left out. Neither are Youku (YOKU +7.5%), 21Vianet (VNET +7.4%), Momo (MOMO +6.8%), Sohu (SOHU +7.7%), Changyou (CYOU +4.5%), Dangdang (DANG +7.3%), Vipshop (VIPS +4.8%), JD.com (JD +3.9%), Jumei (JMEI +6.6%), Sungy Mobile (GOMO +5.8%), China Techfaith (CNTF +7.1%), and KongZhong (KZ +5.5%).
- Alibaba has proposed an asset injection into its money-losing Alibaba Pictures (+36% in Hong Kong) film arm. Sky-mobi has seen Rosenblatt (Buy) hike its target to $11, while noting many Chinese mobile game developers have been bought out; it thinks Sky-mobi's investments in developers could be worth $140M. NetEase has been upgraded by CICC Research.
- Over in Hong Kong, software/cloud services provider Kingsoft (OTCPK:KSFTF) rose 24.2% to HKD$29.50. Messaging/gaming giant Tencent (OTCPK:TCEHY) rose 3.3% to HKD$154.80.
- ETFs: KWEB, CQQQ, QQQC
Fri, Mar. 27, 2:20 PM
- Qunar's (QUNR +6.3%) post-earnings rally has refused to let up. Shares are now up 41% since China's #2 online travel firm beat Q4 estimates and issued strong Q1 guidance on March 16.
- With Qunar now sporting a $4.9B market cap, shares go for nearly 10x a 2015 revenue consensus of $492.6M. Majority owner Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU) has to be pleased with the jump in Qunar's equity value.
Wed, Mar. 25, 10:58 AM
- Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU) and top search rival Qihoo (NYSE:QIHU) are selling off in early trading. The Nasdaq is down 0.6%, and the Shanghai exchange fell 0.8% overnight.
- Possibly hurting the companies: The health industry chamber of commerce for the city of Putian (a major healthcare services hub) has ordered its members to stop buying medical ads.
- Trader Marc Lehman observes 20% of Baidu's revenue comes from medical ads. HSBC reported last year Putian businessmen run at least 8K of the 10,877 private Chinese hospitals that existed nationwide as of Oct. '13 (per government data).
- Separately, Chinese tutoring services provider Xueda (XUE) has announced the creation of an online education JV with Qihoo. The JV, known as Sunshine Rabbit Technology, currently has less than $5M in registered capital.
- Last week, Bloomberg reported Sohu/Tencent's Sogou search unit is planning an IPO with a $3B+ valuation. That arguably reflects well on Qihoo, which had an estimated 17.3% Q4 search share to Sogou's 6.9% (Baidu was at 74.4%), and whose Web/mobile empire is assigned a total current market cap of $6.3B.
Fri, Mar. 20, 12:20 PM
- #3 Chinese search engine Sogou is planning an IPO that will feature a $3B+ valuation, Bloomberg reports. Sources add Sogou, which is controlled by Sohu (SOHU +3.7%), could see an offering in 2H15.
- Sogou has been easily outgrowing Sohu's portal and gaming ops: Its revenue rose 70% Y/Y in Q4 to $119M. It had an estimated 6.9% Q4 Chinese search share, trailing Baidu's (NASDAQ:BIDU) 74.4% and Qihoo's (NYSE:QIHU) 17.3%.
- Tencent (OTCPK:TCEHY) bought a 40.9% stake in Sogou in 2013 for $516M, and has integrated Sogou's services with its wildly popular WeChat mobile messaging platform (recently hit 500M MAUs). Aside from search, Sogou's services include a Web directory, games, and popular Chinese-language typing software (Sogou Pinyin).
Fri, Feb. 13, 11:29 AM
- Shares of Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU) have recovered entirely from their post-earnings decline as dip-buyers lift the stock +4.4%, to $213.61.
- A set of downgrades followed Baidu's light Q1 outlook: Stifel Nicolaus downgraded shares to Hold, and Brean Capital and Jefferies Group lowered price targets (to $250 and $253 respectively), but maintained Buy ratings.
- Volume on the shares has surpassed its daily average.
- More analyst outlooks
- Previously: Baidu tumbles below $200 on revenue miss, light Q1 outlook (Feb. 11 2015)
Thu, Feb. 12, 9:15 AM| 5 Comments
Wed, Feb. 11, 5:36 PM
Wed, Feb. 11, 5:12 PM
- In addition to missing Q4 revenue estimates (while slightly beating on EPS), Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU) is guiding for Q1 revenue of RMB12.645B-RMB13.065B ($2.038B-$2.106B), below an RMB13.62B consensus. Guidance reflects "the combined impact of both the late timing of Chinese New Year this year and mobile's growing traffic contribution, which monetizes at a rate lower than that of PC."
- Mobile rose to 42% of revenue in Q4 from 36% in Q3. Online ad customers rose 16% Y/Y but just 1.4% Q/Q to 523K; revenue per online ad customer rose 26.3% Y/Y but just 1.9% Q/Q to $4,255.
- Traffic acquisition costs rose to 13.4% of revenue from 12.9% in Q3 and 12.3% a year ago (mobile, hao123 portal promotions, and contextual ads were responsible). SG&A spend soared 89.2% Y/Y to $568M, and R&D spend 69% to $344.2M.
- BIDU -8.1% AH to $197.26.
- Q4 results, PR
Wed, Jan. 21, 2:55 PM
- Alibaba (BABA +3.5%) and Baidu (BIDU +3.6%) have posted big gains in U.S. trading after the Shanghai Composite rose 4.7% overnight (its biggest gain in 5 years). China's other Internet giant, Tencent (OTCPK:TCEHY), hasn't been left out of the fun: Its shares rose 3.8% overnight in Hong Kong, leaving the company sporting a $155B market cap.
- Baidu recently received positive pre-earnings commentary from Deutsche, which argued mobile monetization is improving rapidly. The firm observed Baidu hiked the minimum bid price for mobile keywords as a % of PC keyword prices to 30% from 10%, and suggested Baidu's alliance with fast-growing Android OEM Xiaomi could provide a boost. Mobile accounted for 36% of Baidu's Q3 revenue, and a majority of its traffic.
- Alibaba, which also rallied yesterday, is eight days away from posting its FQ3 report. The consensus is for 47% Y/Y revenue growth, but only 24% EBITDA growth, as investments in new businesses and mobile marketing pressure margins.
Dec. 1, 2014, 10:38 AM
- Chinese Internet and telecom names are among the biggest tech decliners as the Nasdaq registers a 0.9% drop. A soft November PMI print isn't helping.
- Giants Alibaba (BABA -4.3%) and Baidu (BIDU -2.8%) are among the casualties. As is Qunar (QUNR -5.8%), which reports after the bell.
- Other Internet decliners: BITA -12%. QIHU -4.4%. CTRP -4.3%. SFUN -7.2%. LEJU -7.5%. RENN -6.3%. SINA -3.8%. WB -3%. YY -3.9%. VIPS -3.8%. SOHU -3.5%. MOBI -4.3%. CMGE -8.6%.
- Telecom decliners: CHL -3.6%. CHU -3.9%. CHA -4%.
- ETFs: KWEB, CQQQ, QQQC
Nov. 12, 2014, 8:04 AM
- Xiaomi (now China's biggest smartphone vendor and #3 worldwide) and Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU) are each investing $300M in Baidu's iQiyi video site, China Business Daily reports.
- Meanwhile, Xiaomi has announced it's taking a stake in major iQiyi rival Youku (NYSE:YOKU) by acquiring shares on the open market. Xiaomi will also license content from Youku, and the companies will "jointly invest in the production and distribution of online video content and movies."
- The news comes a week after Xiaomi announced it's investing $1B to expand its Web video content library. The company claims 85M active users for its MIUI Android UI (pre-installed on its phones). Baidu/iQyi recently announced it would have distribution rights to 1K+ U.S. movies next year.
- Baidu, Youku, SOHU, and Tencent have been battling fiercely in a Chinese Web video market that features no dominant YouTube-like player for user-generated/short-form content, nor any dominant Netflix-like player for TV shows and movies. The market has seen huge mobile video growth: Mobile made up over 60% of Youku's Q2 video views.
- YOKU +3.6% premarket.
Nov. 10, 2014, 11:15 AM
- Baidu's (BIDU +2.5%) Dianxin mobile app unit is partnering with Chinese online retailer LightInTheBox (LITB +10.6%) to globally promote and distribute LightInTheBox's apps.
- Dianxin's apps, which include Android utility apps such as DU Battery Saver and DU Speed Booster, have been downloaded by 350M Chinese and nearly 200M non-Chinese users.
- LightInTheBox, which is up sharply on the news, receives the lion's share of its revenue from non-Chinese buyers. Baidu has increasingly been butting heads with Alibaba, whose marketplaces handle plenty of sales between Chinese merchant and overseas customers.
Oct. 29, 2014, 4:36 PM
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