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Fri, Aug. 1, 12:38 PM| Comment!
Tue, Jul. 1, 12:32 PM| Comment!
Mon, Jun. 2, 12:36 PM| Comment!
Fri, May. 16, 9:13 AM
- Harkening back to the "new normal" thesis peddled by former colleague Mohamed El-Erian for the past few years, Bill Gross (BOND) talks of a "new neutral" to try and explain why 2.50 on the 10-year Treasury is a perfectly reasonable yield.
- With debt remaining high and economic expansion continuing to be lame, the "new neutral" real Fed Funds rate is about 0%-0.5%, says Gross, along with Richard Clarida. "If the new neutral policy rate is 0% and the Fed achieves its 2% inflation target, than the 10-year Treasury should trade at close to 2%."
- The investment implications: Bubble risk is lower than expected as markets have priced in a real Fed Funds rate of 1-2% and nominal of 3-4% by the end of the decade. If the "new neutral" of 0% real rates and 2% nominal plays out, asset markets could see plenty of support.
- ETFs: AGG, BOND, BND, SHY, BSV, BIV, BLV, SCHZ, BIL, PLW, SHV, GOVT, VGSH, LAG, SCHO, BYLD, ILTB, SAGG, ISTB, SST, GBF, TUZ, GVI, DTUS, DTUL, MINC, FWDB, AGND, AGZD
Thu, May. 8, 3:04 PM
- Maybe more worried about having cash on hand to meet redemptions than beating their benchmark, bond fund managers have taken cash levels up to 7.6% of AUM at the end of March vs. 3% four years earlier.
- Times have changed in fixed-income land - banks have cut thousands from trade desks and shrunk their books of inventory, making it harder for debt managers to exit positions and raising the chance of far more price volatility should there come a rush to sell.
- Fund performance is being punished: The broad U.S. bond market up 3.2% this year - the best gains since 2010, according to BAML. Non-traditional bond funds - in which managers have flexibility to decide where to invest - are ahead just 1.7%.
- Broad bond ETFs: AGG, BOND, BND, BSV, BIV, BLV, SCHZ, LAG, BYLD, SAGG, ISTB, DI, ILTB, GBF, GVI, MINC, LDUR, FWDB, AGND, AGZD
Thu, May. 1, 2:29 PM| Comment!
Wed, Apr. 23, 12:51 PM
- The iShares Yield Optimized Bond ETF (BYLD) will give investors to a broad array of fixed income securities listed in the U.S.
- Unlike its wildly popular Core Total U.S. Bond Market ETF (AGG), according to the recently updated SEC filing BLYD will offer exposure to both investment grade and non-investment grade securities.
- Other total U.S. bond ETFs: BOND, BND, BSV, BIV, BLV, SCHZ, LAG, SAGG, ILTB, ISTB, GBF, GVI, MINC, FWDB, GIY
Wed, Apr. 2, 2:55 PM
- "The reported 'great rotation' out of fixed-income seems to have been short-lived," writes Brian Rehling, chief fixed-income strategist at Wells Fargo Advisors. Short of an inflation scare - not on the horizon at the moment - he doesn't see investors exiting the sector en masse in the coming years.
- Worried about volatility and the fact that most bond funds and ETFs never mature (target-date ones don't)? Rehling suggests buying high-quality paper directly and creating bond ladders which allow cash to be received and then put back to work at potentially higher rates.
- ETFs: AGG, BOND, BND, BSV, BIV, BLV, SCHZ, LAG, SAGG, ILTB, GVI, GBF, ISTB, MINC, FWDB, GIY
Tue, Apr. 1, 12:04 PM| Comment!
Mon, Mar. 31, 1:54 PM| Comment!
Wed, Mar. 26, 3:06 PM
- Private pension funds and insurance companies - their equity exposure rising along with stock market - have returned to the long end of the curve this year to rebalance their portfolios, says JPMorgan Private Bank CIO Richard Madigan, helping to support prices as Fed dials back QE.
- Madigan didn't and doesn't expect a "great rotation" from fixed income to equities, instead arguing the boost in equity inflows has come and will come at the expense of too-high cash balances. Why own fixed income? Bonds continue in their role of buffering other investment risk in portfolios.
- "In the middle of everything lies opportunity," said Einstein. We're mid-cycle in the global recovery, says Madigan, maybe frustrating those late to invest, but still offering plenty of opportunity.
- ETFs: AGG, BOND, BND, BSV, BIV, BLV, SCHZ, LAG, SAGG, ILTB, DI, GVI, ISTB, GBF, LDUR, MINC, FWDB, AGND, GIY, AGZD
Thu, Mar. 6, 3:08 PM
- Typically making up 20-25% of Berkshire Hathaway's (BRK.A, BRK.B) insurance units' investment holdings ($186.8B AUM), fixed-income assets dropped to just 14% as of the end of the year. Stocks account for $114.8B of the holdings. Cash of $48.2B is up from $47B a year ago and $30.6B at the end of 2009, and of the fixed-income the units do hold, there's a decided tilt away from duration.
- Investment income in the insurance units was $3.7B in 2013, but this could drop as nice-yielding deals with Mars, Inc, Swiss Re, Goldman, and GE wound down and Buffett has only been able to replace a portion of that money with equally lucrative plays (i.e., Heinz). “Investment opportunities currently available will likely generate considerably lower yields ... We continue to hold significant cash and cash equivalents earning very low yields.”
- Broad fixed-income ETFs: AGG, BOND, BND, BSV, BIV, BLV, SCHZ, LAG, SAGG, ILTB, GVI, ISTB, GBF, DI, LDUR, MINC, FWDB, GIY, AGND, AGZD
Tue, Mar. 4, 8:21 AM
- Permanently on the whiteboard of Pimco's Investment Committee boardroom is its concentric circles of asset classes, with the Fed Funds rate occupying the center and stocks and real estate far on the outside. "Change the price of credit at the center and you change the price of assets at the outer extremities," writes Bill Gross.
- Risk assets may be high-priced, but they're not necessarily mis-priced as long as ZIRP continues. Key, says Gross, drawing on Yeats' "Second Coming," is whether the center holds, i.e. can investors be convinced of the Fed's credibility as it shifts from a quantitative to qualitative assessment of whether to tighten policy.
- "Artificial prices will not be mis-priced if circling falcons can be convinced of the efficacy of qualitative forward guidance. We believe that will be the case. Carry trades, then, in numerous forms should be profitable."
- Redemptions from Gross' Total Return Fund (ETF version: BOND) slowed to $1.6B in February, the slowest pace of outflows since the bond market blew up last May.
- Broad fixed-income ETFs: AGG, BOND, BND, BSV, BIV, BLV, SCHZ, LAG, SAGG, ILTB, GVI, ISTB, GBF, MINC, FWDB, GIY, AGND, AGZD
Mon, Mar. 3, 1:44 AM| Comment!
Thu, Feb. 13, 1:54 PM
- The Guggenheim Enhanced Core Bond ETF (GIY) is scheduled to close on March 7th after 4 years of trading.
- Competing with the iShares Core Total U.S. Bond Market ETF (AGG) and Vanguard's Total Bond Market ETF (BND) has proven an uphill climb; both have accumulated $15 billion and $19 billion in assets respectively while GIY has only $5 million.
- Other broad Bond ETFs: BOND, BSV, BIV, BLV, SCHZ, LAG, SAGG, ILTB, GVI, ISTB, GBF, MINC, FWDB
Mon, Feb. 3, 1:58 PM| Comment!
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BLV vs. ETF Alternatives
Vanguard Long-Term Bond ETF seeks to track the performance of a market-weighted bond index with a long-term dollar-weighted average maturity.
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