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Tuesday, Nov 267:34 AMMore gas found off Israel's coast
Tuesday, Nov 267:34 AM| Comment!
- Delek Drilling (DKDRF) has found significant signs of a new natural gas deposit at the Tamar Southwest field off Israel's Mediterranean coast.
- Earlier estimates have said that the reserve could hold 20B cubic meters of gas.
- Delek Drilling's partners in the project are Isramco Negev 2, Avner Oil Exploration (AVOGF) and Dor Gas Exploration. Delek Drilling and Avner are subsidiaries of Delek Group (DGRLY).
- The deposit is close to the Tamar field, which is estimated to hold 10T cubic feet of gas.
- ETFs: GAZ, UGAZ, BOIL, DGAZ, KOLD, NAGS, GASZ, DCNG
Saturday, Nov 99:11 AMCheap natural gas hits NYC in "game changer" for the region
Saturday, Nov 99:11 AM| 8 Comments
- Natural gas prices in Manhattan are cheaper than in Louisiana these days, thanks to a pipeline that opened Nov. 1 which has effectively doubled the amount of natural gas flowing into Manhattan and steadily pulled down the island’s delivery price.
- Spectra Energy’s (SE) new pipeline, the first to be built to New York in 40 years, gathers gas from various sources including Pennsylvania's Marcellus Shale.
- SE says lower natural gas prices will reduce energy costs businesses and residents pay by $350M/year in New York and by the same in New Jersey, and analysts say the claims are legit; it will help clean up the air too.
- The pipeline met opposition from groups arguing that it encourages fracking, but New Yorkers already consumed fracked natural gas - now they’ll at least stop overpaying for it.
- ETFs: UNG, GAZ, UGAZ, BOIL, DGAZ, UNL, KOLD, NAGS, GASZ, DCNG.
Monday, Oct 1410:50 AMRising U.S. nat gas prices may make exports less competitive
Monday, Oct 1410:50 AM| 1 Comment
- U.S. natural gas may not end up being as cheap as expected in the long term, as higher production costs and stronger demand make exports less competitive on the global marketplace, energy company executives say.
- Henry Hub prices are in one of the low price cycles and below replacement costs, which can't be sustained if history is a guide, says Exxon (XOM) global LNG V.P. Richard Guerrant.
- Looking forward to 2020-25, producing only the dry shale gas without the associated oil won't be profitable at $4 or $5/M BTU, says ConocoPhillips' (COP) V.P. of Commercial, Business Development and Corporate Planning Don Wallette.
- ETFs: UNG, GAZ, UNL, NAGS, DCNG, BOIL, KOLD, UGAZ, DGAZ, FCG, GASL, GASX.
Monday, Jul 19:30 AMJPMorgan recommends getting overweight commodities (DBC) for the first time in 2 years, but warns the call isn't an "all-clear" signal, but instead a view on term structure in energy, which dominates most indices. Momentum is still negative in metals but prices - particularly for gold and copper - are at levels which should spur production cuts and fresh demand. |Monday, Jul 19:30 AM| 1 Comment
Tuesday, Jun 188:54 AM"The biggest contrarian play in the market today is assets linked to China (FXI, CAF)," says Michael Hartnett, summarizing BAML's latest Fund Manager Survey, which shows money flowing out of commodities (DBC) and emerging markets (EEM, DEM, VWO). Where's the money going? The eurozone and the U.S. Where it's not going is fixed-income (AGG, BND) - 50% of managers say they're now underweight bonds as opposed to 38% last month. |Tuesday, Jun 188:54 AM| Comment!
Wednesday, May 82:52 PMThe recent selloff in commodities (DBC) is not a correction, says Stan Druckenmiller, now on stage at Ira Sohn, but instead the end of the supercycle. Avoid commodity markets - Brazil (EWZ, BRF, BRL), South Africa (EZA, SZR), Canada (EWC, FXC). "Frankly, I'd short the aussie (FXA)." His largest equity holding? "I can't imagine a better position than Google (GOOG)" - selling for 16x earnings and no exposure to China. |Wednesday, May 82:52 PM| 4 Comments
Monday, May 68:31 AMThe commodity boom (DBC) is over, writes Morgan Stanley global macro chief Ruchir Sharma, as massive overinvestment - mostly to feed China's voracious demand - comes online just at the time said demand becomes considerably less voracious. Not only are China and emerging markets in general slowing, but the countries are striving to become more efficient (USO) as well. "If historical pattern holds, we are now entering a long period of falling commodity prices, which could last two decades." |Monday, May 68:31 AM| 2 Comments
Wednesday, May 110:41 AMCommodities are lit up bright red as weak economic data (here and in China) is a good excuse to end the bounce of the last few sessions. Gold (GLD -1.8%), Silver (SLV -3.6%), WTI Crude (USO -2.6%). Copper (JJC -3.3%) moves to its lowest level in about 18 months at $3.08/lb. The metal hasn't had a 2-handle since the start of 2011. Broad commodity gauge (DBC -1.8%). |Wednesday, May 110:41 AM| 5 Comments
Friday, Apr 123:01 PMIt's "death bells" for commodities, says Citigroup, calling 2013 the year in which it's realized the commodity supercycle is over and a new era in which the relative performance of how "stuff" performs against each other and other assets is what matters. Specifically on oil, Citi calls Q1's move higher without merit and expects the recent downtick in prices to continue. |Friday, Apr 123:01 PM| 70 Comments
Monday, Mar 118:24 AMSpeculators cut net long positions in commodity contacts by 9.2% last week, according to CFTC data. At 406K contracts, it's the lowest net long position since the epic March 2009 bottom. Not surprisingly, the positioning is following the trend in commodity prices, which have tumbled over the past few weeks. Goldman last week: Buy the dip. DBC thus far this year. |Monday, Mar 118:24 AM| 3 Comments
Friday, Mar 87:06 AMBuy the dip in commodities, says Goldman, raising its 3-month outlook for raw materials after the recent price dip. "The recent selloff in commodities on worries about Chinese growth is overdone in our view and we upgrade to overweight on a 3-month horizon," says the bank's commodities research chief. DBC -2.4% YTD. |Friday, Mar 87:06 AM| Comment!
Wednesday, Feb 2011:28 AM
Wednesday, Feb 611:36 AMInstitutional investors pull back from commodity bets as the sector fails to deliver on its key appeal as an effective hedge against volatile stocks. Influential Calpers - which led the way into commodities a decade ago - leads the way out, pulling 55% of its holdings after years of losses. DBC flat Y/Y. |Wednesday, Feb 611:36 AM| 2 Comments
Wednesday, Jan 3011:10 AMThis just in, commodity prices are falling, writes technician Michael Kahn. The CRB index is lower now than when the Fed launched QE∞ in September, and down 18% over a roughly 2-year period. Though still in tight supply, the grains (JJG) are off 16% since late summer, and softs like coffee, sugar, and cocoa are in multi-month bear markets. |Wednesday, Jan 3011:10 AM| 4 Comments
Wednesday, Dec 262012, 4:14 PMCorn has delivered the best 2012 performance of ten major commodities tracked by Bespoke: buoyed by strong Asian demand, its price has risen 17.3% YTD. Coffee has delivered the worst performance, declining 34.8% - expect that drop to provide a nice 2013 lift to the margins of SBUX, DNKN, and other coffee chains, as it becomes reflected in new contract prices. Oil is down 8%, its first annual decline since '08. 7 of the 10 tracked commodities are up on the year. |Wednesday, Dec 262012, 4:14 PM| Comment!
Thursday, Dec 62012, 4:44 PMThe commodity super cycle has entered has entered a "renaissance" period, says Goldman, in which prices may not go a lot higher, but markets in "backwardation" - near-term prices greater than those further out - will create the opportunity for "significant investment returns." |Thursday, Dec 62012, 4:44 PM| Comment!
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