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Thursday, Dec 194:59 PM
Thursday, Dec 194:59 PM| Comment!
- Natural gas futures today reached their highest levels in nearly two-a-half years as data showed a record drop in U.S. inventories.
- Stocks are 7.4% below the five-year average for this time of year, an EIA analyst says, likely the largest deficit to historical level on EIA's records which began in 1994.
- Traders are setting their sights on $5/mm Btu gas, last seen in June 2010, but any significant warming trend could send prices down, and gas production is expected to begin hitting record levels as more supplies come on line from Marcellus shale gas fields.
- ETFs: UNG, UGAZ, GAZ, BOIL, DGAZ, UNL, KOLD, NAGS, GASZ, DCNG
Tuesday, Dec 1711:45 AM
Tuesday, Dec 1711:45 AM| 3 Comments
- Russia agrees to lend Ukraine $15B and cut prices for natural gas amid large-scale protests in Kiev over the rejection of a trade deal with the European Union, which has put additional pressure on Ukraine's bonds and currency.
- Gazprom (OGZPY) also will cut gas prices for Ukraine to $268.50 per thousand cubic meters, down from $400.
- Russia had restricted Ukrainian imports in recent months, stepping up pressure on its neighbor as it appeared ready to sign the deal with the EU.
- ETFs: UNG, UGAZ, GAZ, BOIL, DGAZ, UNL, KOLD, NAGS, GASZ, DCNG.
Monday, Dec 163:28 PM
Monday, Dec 163:28 PM| 2 Comments
- Mexico’s sweeping energy reform clears its final major hurdle, as San Luis Potosi becomes the 17th state legislature to give rapid-fire approval to constitutional changes that will allow foreign investment into what has been a 75-year-old state monopoly.
- An influx of Mexican oil would contribute to a glut that is expected to lower the price of Brent crude, which has averaged $108.62/bbl YTD, to as low as $88/bbl in 2017; Exxon's recent prediction that North American production would vault ahead of every OPEC member except Saudi Arabia doesn’t even take into account any changes in Mexico.
- Although the first Mexican opportunities may go to the major independent oil companies in the U.S. and Europe, Chinese groups such as Cnooc (CEO) and Sinopec (SNP) will actively seek opportunities; Mexico's president plans to visit Beijing in 2014 and his trip may reveal whether Chinese firms are acceptable partners.
- ETFs: UNG, USO, OIL, UCO, EWW, GAZ, SCO, UGAZ, BOIL, DBO, DTO, BNO, DGAZ, UNL, CRUD, KOLD, USL, NAGS, DBE, GASZ, RJN, DNO, SZO, OILZ, UWTI, DWTI, OLO, DCNG, UOIL, JJE, UMX, RGRE, ONG, DOIL, SMK, OLEM, TWTI, UBN.
Thursday, Dec 122:34 PM
Thursday, Dec 122:34 PM| 2 Comments
- Mexico's Congress approves the landmark energy bill allowing foreign investment in oil, ending the government's 75-year monopoly on crude production.
- Under the new law, Mexico will offer profit-sharing and production-sharing contracts and licenses to foreign firms, but will maintain ownership of the oil while allowing the firms to book reserves, a crucial concern for oil companies that depend on reserves for valuation and borrowing.
- The measure still needs approval from 17 of Mexico’s 31 state governments before becoming law, and there's plenty of opposition.
- ETFs: UNG, USO, OIL, UCO, GAZ, UGAZ, SCO, BOIL, DBO, DTO, BNO, DGAZ, UNL, CRUD, KOLD, USL, NAGS, DBE, GASZ, RJN, DNO, SZO, OILZ, UWTI, DWTI, OLO, DCNG, UOIL, JJE, RGRE, ONG, DOIL, OLEM, TWTI, UBN
Sunday, Dec 85:29 AM
Sunday, Dec 85:29 AM| 8 Comments
- Legislators in Mexico are today due to start debating a draft bill to open up the country's energy industry and end the decades-long monopoly of state-run Pemex, which suffers from inefficiency, falling output and chronic under-investment.
- The measures would allow private oil companies to explore for, produce, and refine oil and gas, as well as share and market the resources they extract. Firms would also be able to include the projected income of long-term contracts on their balance sheets, something that is crucial for obtaining funds. However, the proposals stop short of offering firms full-blow concessions - a loaded term in Mexico.
- If the bill becomes law, it could add 50-100 bps to Mexico's GDP and prompt rating agencies to give the country's debt a positive outlook, says economist Pedro Tuesta.
- Congress is expected to pass the legislation this week, as it's supported by the main opposition party as well as by the government, although it faces significant public hostility.
- ETFs: UNG, USO, OIL, UCO, EWW, GAZ, SCO, UGAZ, BOIL, DBO, DTO, BNO, DGAZ, UNL, CRUD, KOLD, USL, NAGS, DBE, GASZ, RJN, DNO, SZO, OILZ, UWTI, DWTI, OLO, DCNG, UOIL, JJE, UMX, RGRE, ONG, DOIL, SMK, OLEM, TWTI, UBN
Tuesday, Nov 267:34 AM
Tuesday, Nov 267:34 AM| Comment!
- Delek Drilling (DKDRF) has found significant signs of a new natural gas deposit at the Tamar Southwest field off Israel's Mediterranean coast.
- Earlier estimates have said that the reserve could hold 20B cubic meters of gas.
- Delek Drilling's partners in the project are Isramco Negev 2, Avner Oil Exploration (AVOGF) and Dor Gas Exploration. Delek Drilling and Avner are subsidiaries of Delek Group (DGRLY).
- The deposit is close to the Tamar field, which is estimated to hold 10T cubic feet of gas.
- ETFs: GAZ, UGAZ, BOIL, DGAZ, KOLD, NAGS, GASZ, DCNG
Saturday, Nov 99:11 AM
Saturday, Nov 99:11 AM| 8 Comments
- Natural gas prices in Manhattan are cheaper than in Louisiana these days, thanks to a pipeline that opened Nov. 1 which has effectively doubled the amount of natural gas flowing into Manhattan and steadily pulled down the island’s delivery price.
- Spectra Energy’s (SE) new pipeline, the first to be built to New York in 40 years, gathers gas from various sources including Pennsylvania's Marcellus Shale.
- SE says lower natural gas prices will reduce energy costs businesses and residents pay by $350M/year in New York and by the same in New Jersey, and analysts say the claims are legit; it will help clean up the air too.
- The pipeline met opposition from groups arguing that it encourages fracking, but New Yorkers already consumed fracked natural gas - now they’ll at least stop overpaying for it.
- ETFs: UNG, GAZ, UGAZ, BOIL, DGAZ, UNL, KOLD, NAGS, GASZ, DCNG.
Monday, Oct 1410:50 AM
Monday, Oct 1410:50 AM| 1 Comment
- U.S. natural gas may not end up being as cheap as expected in the long term, as higher production costs and stronger demand make exports less competitive on the global marketplace, energy company executives say.
- Henry Hub prices are in one of the low price cycles and below replacement costs, which can't be sustained if history is a guide, says Exxon (XOM) global LNG V.P. Richard Guerrant.
- Looking forward to 2020-25, producing only the dry shale gas without the associated oil won't be profitable at $4 or $5/M BTU, says ConocoPhillips' (COP) V.P. of Commercial, Business Development and Corporate Planning Don Wallette.
- ETFs: UNG, GAZ, UNL, NAGS, DCNG, BOIL, KOLD, UGAZ, DGAZ, FCG, GASL, GASX.
Monday, Jul 19:30 AMJPMorgan recommends getting overweight commodities (DBC) for the first time in 2 years, but warns the call isn't an "all-clear" signal, but instead a view on term structure in energy, which dominates most indices. Momentum is still negative in metals but prices - particularly for gold and copper - are at levels which should spur production cuts and fresh demand. |Monday, Jul 19:30 AM| 1 Comment
Tuesday, Jun 188:54 AM"The biggest contrarian play in the market today is assets linked to China (FXI, CAF)," says Michael Hartnett, summarizing BAML's latest Fund Manager Survey, which shows money flowing out of commodities (DBC) and emerging markets (EEM, DEM, VWO). Where's the money going? The eurozone and the U.S. Where it's not going is fixed-income (AGG, BND) - 50% of managers say they're now underweight bonds as opposed to 38% last month. |Tuesday, Jun 188:54 AM| Comment!
Wednesday, May 82:52 PMThe recent selloff in commodities (DBC) is not a correction, says Stan Druckenmiller, now on stage at Ira Sohn, but instead the end of the supercycle. Avoid commodity markets - Brazil (EWZ, BRF, BRL), South Africa (EZA, SZR), Canada (EWC, FXC). "Frankly, I'd short the aussie (FXA)." His largest equity holding? "I can't imagine a better position than Google (GOOG)" - selling for 16x earnings and no exposure to China. |Wednesday, May 82:52 PM| 4 Comments
Monday, May 68:31 AMThe commodity boom (DBC) is over, writes Morgan Stanley global macro chief Ruchir Sharma, as massive overinvestment - mostly to feed China's voracious demand - comes online just at the time said demand becomes considerably less voracious. Not only are China and emerging markets in general slowing, but the countries are striving to become more efficient (USO) as well. "If historical pattern holds, we are now entering a long period of falling commodity prices, which could last two decades." |Monday, May 68:31 AM| 2 Comments
Wednesday, May 110:41 AMCommodities are lit up bright red as weak economic data (here and in China) is a good excuse to end the bounce of the last few sessions. Gold (GLD -1.8%), Silver (SLV -3.6%), WTI Crude (USO -2.6%). Copper (JJC -3.3%) moves to its lowest level in about 18 months at $3.08/lb. The metal hasn't had a 2-handle since the start of 2011. Broad commodity gauge (DBC -1.8%). |Wednesday, May 110:41 AM| 5 Comments
Friday, Apr 123:01 PMIt's "death bells" for commodities, says Citigroup, calling 2013 the year in which it's realized the commodity supercycle is over and a new era in which the relative performance of how "stuff" performs against each other and other assets is what matters. Specifically on oil, Citi calls Q1's move higher without merit and expects the recent downtick in prices to continue. |Friday, Apr 123:01 PM| 70 Comments
Monday, Mar 118:24 AMSpeculators cut net long positions in commodity contacts by 9.2% last week, according to CFTC data. At 406K contracts, it's the lowest net long position since the epic March 2009 bottom. Not surprisingly, the positioning is following the trend in commodity prices, which have tumbled over the past few weeks. Goldman last week: Buy the dip. DBC thus far this year. |Monday, Mar 118:24 AM| 3 Comments
Friday, Mar 87:06 AMBuy the dip in commodities, says Goldman, raising its 3-month outlook for raw materials after the recent price dip. "The recent selloff in commodities on worries about Chinese growth is overdone in our view and we upgrade to overweight on a 3-month horizon," says the bank's commodities research chief. DBC -2.4% YTD. |Friday, Mar 87:06 AM| Comment!