Bear Stearns Companies Inc. (BSC)
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BSC Forum Topics
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- General Discussion on BSC
- Nine Months Later: Some Annual Predictions from the Financial Press [view article]
- What Happened to the Fed's $1.816 Trillion Lifeline? [view article]
- 3 Things America Needs to Do to Get the Economy Back on Track [view article]
- The Coming Crash of 2008: A Result of Overleveraging [view article]
- Financial Landscape: Writedowns, Losses and Capital Raised [view article]
- Putting the Perception and Reality of the Financial Crisis Into Perspective [view article]
- Lloyds Buys HBOS: Good Deal or Bad? [view article]
- Bear Stearns’ Bailout by the Fed, JPM: A Century Old Conspiracy [view article]
- Where's the Bottom? Still Anybody's Guess [view article]
- Lessons From the Banking Meltdown [view article]
- Investment Bank Crisis: The Greatest Show on Earth [view article]
- Should I-Banks Trade Publicly? [view article]
loading ...Recent BSC Articles
- What Happened to the Fed's $1.816 Trillion Lifeline?
- 3 Things America Needs to Do to Get the Economy Back on Track
- Putting the Perception and Reality of the Financial Crisis Into Perspective
- Where's the Bottom? Still Anybody's Guess
- Lloyds Buys HBOS: Good Deal or Bad?
- Should I-Banks Trade Publicly?
- Nine Months Later: Some Annual Predictions from the Financial Press
- Will Lehman's Bankruptcy End the Moral Hazard?
- Buyouts and Shakeups: How the Financial World Is Changing
- Financial Landscape: Writedowns, Losses and Capital Raised
- Full List of Articles »
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Putting the Perception and Reality of the Financial Crisis Into Perspective [view article]
Chaos theory does help with an understanding of this situation. We are clearly in a period of chaos - which means that it is difficult to forecast the future. Stasis is a while off.I do believe that an analysis of fundamentals is also a good way to try to come up with some forecast. Humblemaster is right about the housing - some believe it will be at least 9 years before prices start back up. BRIC middle class demand is one shining light in the whole thing - but that will take time. The P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is around 15. With the economic outlook so bleak, I would think it would need to be closer to 10 to reflect future earnings prospects. That would mean a drop of up to 30% more, making the "bottom" for the Dow a lot lower than it is now (try 7,700 for the Dow). For example, in the 80's, the last bad recession, the S&P P/E ratio was BELOW 10 for a number of years. We really haven't had a correction on the DOW even close to a P/E ratio of 10 since after the 87 crash. I think it is very likely. That will have a huge negative wealth affect on consumption, making the recovery take a long, long time Reply3 Things America Needs to Do to Get the Economy Back on Track [view article]
Your trying to move a 14 trillion dollar economy and you are tinkering with gas mileage over 10 years! Brilliant. Reducing trade deficit -how about the hundreds of billions left in the ground from not drilling for gas and oil over 20 years! No mention. It is a strategy that every nation has taken on - drilling in every conceivable area looking for sucker nations that believe in preelection fabricated polar bear sitings.
They even enrich uranium in oil rich nations since it is cheaper and export the rest for hard cash.
Norway with a pop of 5 million awards the Nobel Peace to a carbon credit politician and then accumulates close to 400 billion in it's piggy (polar) bank.
If people are sincere about energy they would restrict the 15 million illegal which would burden our roads and infrastructure. They would tax second homes that need to maintained year round. None of this would happen because it is not a real issue but fake.
China trade is a joke they don't have nor does any other exporter have significant capital yet to import from us - therefore our trade deficit would not be impacted.
China currency has been manipulated but it's the same game as many other nations all trying to export. We are so burdened with debt, regulation and litigation - we need to eliminate the corp interest expense deduction and replace it with dividend payment deduction. But of course this will never pass because both banks and shareholders are now evil - so we will end up probably just chasing private capital out so that we end up like all the liberal states of NY Calif - request federal assistance.
Banking reform gets at a few 20-100 million in bonuses and compensation - a total red herring. You conveniently forget to mention that almost half the mortgages in America are now controlled by politicians - 4 trillion. This was inherited from an out of control politician sponsored agency. Now what? I guess we vote on each foreclosure. This is the elephant in the room. No one is losing sleep that a bunch of clowns got overpaid for a few years. How about this 4 trillion that doubled the national debt in a weekend. Who held up reforms and scrutinty on the politically inspired Fannie Mae agency - who kept the campaign contributions going, who wants to distract people from an investigation? Reply
3 Things America Needs to Do to Get the Economy Back on Track [view article]
Hello - Here's one take: Sugar Money followed attacks of 2001 to put a Keynesian cure on a world of a mess in the financial markets. It was a "typical Democrat solution" but it was R's that implemented it. Frankly there was not a choice. Had to be done. When the banks started to get risky based on earlier deregulations and and trading rules going back to the Clinton era. Add to that policy rules that prompted banks to put out high risk loans to people with little ability to pay - as well as to speculators busy flipping the housing market, and voila ! BUBBLE. Warning flags and legislation to dial back the spicket came from the Bush Admin and McCain among others. Dems turned a blind eye. Bubble had no restraints. In reality there are low percentages of actual bad loans but given the "mark to market" accounting - the whole group of assets became tainted. So much of this is the cause of government tinkering but I see little way out except to tinker some more. I think the modified Paulson plan has a good shot at unclogging the credit pipes .. and reviving the economy - though the DOMESTIC markets may not follow so soon since the dollar gets damaged in the process. Oil is certainly a factor here but if our markets begin to respond - more oil and gold money will begin flowing back to the US equity pie. Reply3 Things America Needs to Do to Get the Economy Back on Track [view article]
Boy! You're sure talking a lot of anti-republican rhetoric here! Limit free trade by taxing to compensate for the Yuan/Dollar, get clunkers off the road, push for reduced gas consumption.. Don't know what to say!Caught you on the tube the other day... Good stuff
jegan ;-)
Go Terrapins! Reply
3 Things America Needs to Do to Get the Economy Back on Track [view article]
"Cultural changes at our banks and securities firms are required."Its not about "culture" -- its about "structure". If they're permitted to sell risky debt, they _will_ sell risky debt. Think of hospitals. There's long been a problem of people hooking up the the wrong hose to the wrong plug-- if the Oxygen mask gets plugged into the CO2 outlet, you have a problem.
There are two approaches to the solution: training-- get everyone to recognize the deadly danger.
Or design: make sure the Oxygen tube connector doesn't fit into the CO2 port.
Solutions that affect design, which make it impossible to make mistakes, are preferable. That's what we did after the crash: created three categories of banking institutions
investment banks
commercial banks
savings banks
Each was permitted to engage in a limited range of transactions, with a limited leverage, and limited counter-parties.
There were efficiency costs to this arrangement, but "by design" it prevented the nightmare chimeras we're trying to control today. Reply
3 Things America Needs to Do to Get the Economy Back on Track [view article]
Exactly What I Have Preaching....But, The Republicans think other things are at fault, cause...The Drop Of IN Commodities, especially OIL, was the final straw that broke the Money Banks/WS Firms...hence the run on the dollar and "THE CRISIS" that went beyond normail rescue channels...
China and the Saudis are pissed at us for the high price of oil and the deteriorating dollar and signalled they were through buying them...so nobody to purchase Gov. Notes starting this Wed.
And we continue to let those that have been steering this our of control ship to still tell us they should be the ones to pilot it.
I feel sorry for O as he is going to have his hands full...this is just a one-year band-aid!
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Putting the Perception and Reality of the Financial Crisis Into Perspective [view article]
Generally, home prices go flat for a number of years while the economy slowly catches up. Also, it will depend on where the price of mortgages goes over this time. After another year or two of asset defaltion, we should see inetesrt rates reflect the excess money in the system (inflation). Short term rates may stay low, but the twn through thrity year will move up to compensate for excess liquidity. This will keep housing prices depressed. IAfter the inital shock of all this wears off in another six months, the value of the U.S. dollar will start to decline again. ReplyPutting the Perception and Reality of the Financial Crisis Into Perspective [view article]
In looking at historic home price increases since 1940, we have averaged about about a 15% increase in asset value per decade through 2000, but a whopping 60% increase in yrs. 2000 - 2008. If we have some 48 trillion of valuation out there in US homes, and even if 10% of that is already gone, aren't we due for another 35% correction before this bubble comes historically in line? this is theoretically 16 Trillion. What kind of GDP do we need going forward to mitigate that? This seems to me to be a crisis of unimaginable proportions. 700B may not make a dent.Please, input from more knowlegable people?
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3 Things America Needs to Do to Get the Economy Back on Track [view article]
In looking at historic home price increases since 1940, we have averaged about about a 15% increase in asset value per decade through 2000, but a whopping 60% increase in yrs. 2000 - 2008. If we have some 48 trillion of valuation out there in US homes, and even if 10% of that is already gone, aren't we due for another 35% correction before this bubble comes historically in line? this is theoretically 16 Trillion. What kind of GDP do we need going forward to mitigate that? This seems to me to be a crisis of unimaginable proportions. 700B may not make a dent.Please, input from more knowlegable people?
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Putting the Perception and Reality of the Financial Crisis Into Perspective [view article]
The truth of the matter is: 1. America buys much more than it sells (GDP). 2. America consequentely depends upon China, Japan, etc.to indulge this vainglory. 3. Their joy of financing this deficit has greatly decreased over the past year. To perpetuate this stupidity, Congress has less risk if the bill is passed tonight! 4. The size of the monies owed may suggest major foreign banks could collapse tomorrow if Congress does not remove it's head from another part of it's anatomy!
This may suggest the best November solution is to vote for me, Honest John. You have your choice of VP's between my two CATS. Casey is a little arrogant, but has the welfare of the country at heart. Penny Cat is a more feeling type of individual who views decisions more from an emotional framework. Reply
3 Things America Needs to Do to Get the Economy Back on Track [view article]
I disagree 11815 - The American people have it in them to make these tough adjustments, all they require is a renewed trust in their leaders. Reply3 Things America Needs to Do to Get the Economy Back on Track [view article]
I do not believe that this or the next administration will be able to make the tough choices...all will be painfull and beyond the will of the American Public to bare...we have grown up with credit as our personal right and the smooth talking salesman as our hero and advisor...lets face it...the game is over and were going into second or third rate status and hopefully there will be enough food kitchens to feed all of us. ReplyLloyds Buys HBOS: Good Deal or Bad? [view article]
The merged bank will be Britain's biggest mortgage lender and current account provider with a near-30% market share in both. It will be the largest life assurer, too. The pricing power this gives CEO Eric Daniels' new behemoth is quite extraordinary. I can't think of any other bank in any other major industrial economy holding such a large market share. I think if the markets do not go to hell in a hand basket LYG ADR's could be a triple to ($60) while the down side (assuming dilution) is probably $10. Best is to hold for now and see how the next few months play out. ReplyLloyds Buys HBOS: Good Deal or Bad? [view article]
Jeff Cross is correct that UK and US banks are not directly comparable. UK is a oligopolist market, where a few super banks dominate the market. LYG with its strong deposit base will balance out HBOS's exposure to the whole sale market.Lloyd's CEO Eric Daniels said that immediately after the deal — which is expected to complete early next year the bank would have core tier 1 capital ratio, the measure most used by analysts for balance sheet strength, of 5.9%. That is marginally below its target of a ratio of between 6% and 7%, and less than the 6.2% it reported at the halfyear stage. At its half-year stage HBOS's core tier 1 ratio was even better at 6.5%.
LYG is cutting its dividend to preserve capital ratio's but if the UK housing market continues to plummet it may be forced to raise more capital at below book value.
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Bear Stearns’ Bailout by the Fed, JPM: A Century Old Conspiracy [view article]
I guess I called it right back in March 28... "Watch Lehman"... hmm no conspiracy? Who's the number one bank now? JP Morgan. What a ship of fools we are on.. Reply