Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF (BSV)
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BSV Forum Topics
- All Comments on BSV
- General Discussion on BSV
- A 360 View of Returns (July 2008) [view article]
- Report from the Bond War Frontlines [view article]
- Why I'm Against Fixed Income ETFs [view article]
- Broad US Bond ETFs [view article]
- Questioning The Value of Bond ETFs [view article]
- Short Bond ETFs Get Short Shrift [view article]
- Auction-Rate Securities, RIP? [view article]
- Auction-Rate Bonds Fail to Find Buyers [view article]
- Did FASB Scupper the Auction-Rate Market? [view article]
- The Incredible Lightness of Being (Employed) [view article]
- Bonds Have Moved: Are Spreads Next? [view article]
Recent BSV Articles
- Report from the Bond War Frontlines
- A 360 View of Returns (July 2008)
- Short Bond ETFs Get Short Shrift
- ETF Update: Trading Strategies, Unpopular Bond ETFs, Platinum ETN, New All-World ETF,
- Auction-Rate Securities, RIP?
- Did FASB Scupper the Auction-Rate Market?
- Auction-Rate Bonds Fail to Find Buyers
- Time to Increase Credit Risk Exposure
- The Incredible Lightness of Being (Employed)
- Bond ETF Offerings Explode in 2007
- Full List of Articles »
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A 360 View of Returns (July 2008) [view article]
job well done and very easy to follow ReplyReport from the Bond War Frontlines [view article]
The last sentence should read: They poorly reward tyhe investor... ReplyReport from the Bond War Frontlines [view article]
Duration is one of the critical variables in a bond fund. The longer durations have much more volatility, for now, not much extra yield. Ultimately it is a personal decision as to which yields and duration are best for your portfolio. Personally, I do not recommend any long term funds. They poorly reqard the investor for the increased risks and yield.Best wishes,
ray Reply
Report from the Bond War Frontlines [view article]
The most interesting bond ETFs on the market are PST and TBT. They offer a convenient way to get long exposure to profligacy, pandering, fraud, political incompetence, and central bank indiscipline. That combination of exposure in a single product is hard to beat. Most of the ETFs you mention have short exposure to these. I do not understand why anyone would want them. Replygin.net
Report from the Bond War Frontlines [view article]
Bond ETFs. What an exciting asset class. The fixed income market definitely lends itself to research, analysis, and alpha generation. The only reason to trade an ETF would be to specifically short sectors (say Treasuries or Mortgages) not have a Lehman Agg type of fund.www.beyondthemargin.ne... Reply
Why I'm Against Fixed Income ETFs [view article]
All Index funds are risky, especially income funds. Use Managed Closed End Funds instead. Here's some recent research with real ife investment portfolios:Good News For Income Investors
Looking for good news in today's markets is like searching for the proverbial needle in a haystack. Needless to say, practically all investment grade equities and nearly all closed end funds that specialize in providing regular recurring monthly income have been reduced in market value by this prolonged correction. The quake has spread in all directions from its financial epicenter, and the mounting doom and gloom has taken its toll on even the most rational investment decision makers. Try to keep in mind that the purpose of income investing is the income that your portfolio produces not an increase in the securities' market values---
So here's the good news (and for anyone with a 40% or higher income asset allocation, or an income portfolio being used for living expenses), it really is very good news. Base income levels, from the beginning of the stock market correction in June '07 until mid-July '08, have barely changed at all. In fact, they have probably risen in properly asset allocated portfolios. I have examined the regular recurring monthly income distributed by 56 taxable income CEFs and 61 tax-free income CEFs, and the conclusions are pretty remarkable.
In spite of the fact that the vast majority of my favorite monthly income producers are lower in market value than I would like, the amount of income they are distributing to shareholders has not moved lower meaningfully--- even though the Federal Reserve has reduced interest rates by approximately 60% during the past twelve months. Here are the numbers: (1) 48% of the taxable-income CEFs are distributing precisely the same amount per share as they did a year ago. Fourteen issues have increased their payouts and fifteen have reduced them.
The net result is a decrease of just fourteen cents (2.5% of the total monthly payout). The average current yield on the portfolio, as of mid July '07, is 9.86% without considering any capital gains distributions. Additionally, the group is selling at market prices that reflect an average discount of nearly 11% from NAV. Is that special or what? The bonds, preferred stocks, government securities are priced 11% below their current market values.
(2) The numbers are similar with regard to the 61 tax-free income CEFs: 46% have not altered their payout over the past twelve months; eighteen have reduced their payout slightly, and 15 have increased the monthly dole. The net difference for the group over the past year is less than one cent, or a percentage change of two-tenths of one percent. Remarkable. This group is selling at an average discount from NAV of 9.1% and has a current tax-free yield of 5.51%.
(3) Of 117 individual issues, about half have produced stable income. The others have accounted for a total payout reduction of less than 15 cents--- a measly 1.7%. Why is this amount of little consequence? Two reasons really.
First of all, a properly asset-allocated income portfolio does not disburse all of the base income it receives, so there is income available to reinvest in more shares of income producing securities. This process assures a growing cash flow to calm your fear of rising prices. The other reason is a bit more hypothetical. The Fed has lowered rates significantly, a process that normally produces higher prices for income securities. Eventually, those lower interest rates (even if global pressures convince politicians to take back some of the reductions) should produce higher prices (i.e., profit taking opportunities) in these securities.
Admittedly, even if your asset allocation has been fine tuned for years, lower portfolio market values in this area make stock market valuation shrinkage feel even worse. But the value of stable cash flow becomes painfully clear for investors who misguidedly depend on capital gains for their spending money. Properly asset allocated portfolios contain enough base income generators to pay the bills. The purpose of capital gains is to produce proportionately more base income generators.
The purpose of this email is simply to bring some needed sunlight into an investment environment that is far gloomier than I think it needs to be. If you want the details, you'll have to request them personally.
Steve Selengut
www.sancoservices.com
www.kiawahgolfinvestme.../
Professional Portfolio Management since 1979
Author of: "The Brainwashing of the American Investor: The Book that Wall Street Does Not Want YOU to Read", and "A Millionaire's Secret Investment Strategy"
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A 360 View of Returns (July 2008) [view article]
Finally, a universal overview that gives the reader direction for areas to research for future investment. Great job! ReplyA 360 View of Returns (July 2008) [view article]
Thank you, very helpful. Replying
A 360 View of Returns (July 2008) [view article]
very good job Richard, it gives a sectoral - global view, I learned a lot with the summary! Challenging times ReplyQuestioning The Value of Bond ETFs [view article]
Nathan,you sound like a real winner, so I guess Ill listen to you and not John, should I buy morningstar or a bond fund?
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Short Bond ETFs Get Short Shrift [view article]
Don't even THINK about using closed-end funds when you now have so many legitimate ETF choices. CEFs are broadly manipulated. Try getting out of a CEF when the market turns south. Leave CEFs for the pump-and-dump brokerage firms who think all "clients" are simple marks. ReplyShort Bond ETFs Get Short Shrift [view article]
I haven't done any analytical work on CEFs--their discount/premium pricing has always disturbed me, especially for a purchase that may be temporary. How do you know that a discount will not turn into a deeper discount when it comes time to sell?You may have a good idea, though, if you can live with the pricing uncertainity. It might help others with your same inclination if you would put together a list of CEFs that operate in the ultrashort space. Reply
Short Bond ETFs Get Short Shrift [view article]
Good article. I have one question though - why aren't closed end funds considered in this sort of analysis? It seems to me that some of them might offer a good value, especially if they are trading at a substantial discount. ReplyShort Bond ETFs Get Short Shrift [view article]
If the Gann people turn out to be right and we are entering a 10-year bear market in bonds, the ultrashort ETFs will be more and more popular. ReplyShort Bond ETFs Get Short Shrift [view article]
I used BIL as my MMF earlier this year after reading in the semi-annual report my Columbia Treasury Reserves was full of Bear Sterns repos. So for me it was a matter of safety at the time. Since then Columbia has replaced the Bear Sterns repos with other repos. Reply