Today, 12:44 PM
Thu, Oct. 1, 12:34 PM
- Coal stocks (KOL -0.7%) are broadly lower after Moody's issues a weak forecast for the North American coal industry, saying the outlook "remains negative amid ongoing challenges for both metallurgical and thermal coal, including declining coal consumption and low met coal prices."
- The ratings agency forecasts a ~10% Y/Y decline in the industry's EBITDA for 2016, following the 25% drop it anticipates for 2015.
- BTU -10.7% after allowing for a 1-for-15 reverse split that took effect today; also ACI -5.4%, CNX -6.4%, WLB -5.1%, CLD -3%, ARLP -0.7%.
Thu, Oct. 1, 9:15 AM
Thu, Sep. 24, 3:22 PM
- Peabody Energy (BTU +25.4%) is surging following a Bloomberg report that a group of the company's senior lenders hired New York-based law firm Davis Polk & Wardwell in anticipation of talks to restructure its $6.3B in debt.
- The creditors hold BTU's $1.17B first-lien term loan and are concerned that any proposal by BTU could dilute the value of the assets that secure the debt.
- The news suggests BTU is serious about de-leveraging, and that such a move has the potential to wipe out some of the value of its outstanding debt.
- Arch Coal's (ACI +38.6%) agreement to extend its debt exchange plan for another month, seen as a potential benchmark for a debt swap by BTU, also is helping shares.
- Along for the ride: CLD +4.7%, WLB +5.4%.
Thu, Sep. 24, 12:40 PM
Tue, Sep. 22, 9:21 AM
Thu, Sep. 17, 12:41 PM
Thu, Sep. 17, 9:15 AM
Thu, Sep. 10, 12:44 PM
Wed, Sep. 2, 3:23 PM
- Volatility in U.S. coal equities (NYSEARCA:KOL) has reached the highest level since March 2010, as miners that fell more than 90% jumped to a two-week rally that abruptly ended yesterday when they slid as part of the stock market's wider selloff.
- Short sellers are a big factor: Last week's bounce suggests short sellers were fleeing their positions, which pushed up prices - Peabody Energy (BTU -3.6%), for example, had averaged ~15M trades/day for a month before Thursday, when it totaled nearly 60M.
- The companies also are trying to restructure their debt: After reports said Arch Coal (ACI +6.8%) was looking to compromise with lenders opposed to its proposed debt swap, and thus stave off the threat of bankruptcy, shares soared 633% in nine trading days.
- But Bloomberg says ACI is having trouble completing the swap, with senior lenders still opposed, and bond traders do not think the deal would be enough to fend off a bankruptcy.
- Also: CLD +1.3%, WLB +3%, ARLP -2.2%.
Tue, Sep. 1, 3:39 PM
- Coal stocks (KOL -4.4%) are surrendering large chunks of their recent gains, as might be expected, but J.P. Morgan analysts think coal's share of the U.S. power market might have hit its low point, seeing grid inflexibility making a reduction in coal’s share below ~30% difficult without more investment in the grid, pipelines and more gas power plants.
- The JPM team thinks it is reasonable to assume that once the U.S. gas market begins to balance and the gas price picks up, coal’s market share will recover to the mid or even high 30s prior to the introduction of the greenhouse gas rule, assuming the rule overcomes its many legal challenges.
- Meanwhile, the firm cuts its 2016 EPS estimate on Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP -1.7%) to $0.83 from $0.89, and imitates a 2016 estimate on Peabody Energy (BTU -17.98%) for a loss of $0.37, Arch Coal (ACI -28.9%) for a loss of $6.78, and Cloud Peak Energy (CLD -22.1%) for a loss of $0.21.
Tue, Sep. 1, 12:46 PM
Mon, Aug. 31, 11:36 AM
- Coal companies (NYSEARCA:KOL) continue their apparent short-covering rally, even as J.P. Morgan cuts its coal price forecasts, expecting excess production capacity built in recent years to keep downward pressure on prices in a mirror image of the late 2000s when capacity shortages drove prices higher.
- Even where capacity is forced to pause, much of it could be brought back quickly, which is acting as an overhang, the firm says.
- Arch Coal (ACI +19%) leads the gainers after extending its debt exchange through Sept. 23; the swaps originally had been scheduled to expire on Aug. 14 and then were extended through last Aug. 28.
- Also: BTU +8.8%, CLD +6.4%, WLB +3.1%.
Fri, Aug. 28, 9:17 AM
Thu, Aug. 27, 12:47 PM
Thu, Aug. 27, 9:14 AM
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