In a time when government bailouts have become commonplace, an act of true capitalism has found its way back. There is no question that the auto industry was completely decimated by the economic crisis. Seeing as the industry is pivotal to the U.S. economy, the auto makers got government handouts in the form of direct cash infusions (some for equity) while others saw government incentive spending which boosted sales.

Following the food chain for the auto industry, one could argue that the cash for clunkers program helped auto parts suppliers too, but it was the industry’s only form of “bailout.” The Auto Task Force and President Obama denied the auto parts suppliers industry its own bailout, however, the government did lend a helping hand guaranteeing many of the owed payments from the auto makers. So without direct government aid, many auto parts suppliers were forced into bankruptcy, and if history has showed us anything, it would be a long arduous trip back out of bankruptcy for these companies. More recent examples are the problems with Dana Corporation (DAN) and Delphi, which are still struggling to emerge from bankruptcy.

Q3 2009 Earnings Call Transcript

October 28, 2009 9:00 am ET

• GMAC needs third lifeline. GMAC Financial Services and the Treasury are reportedly in advanced talks to prop up the auto-lender with its third helping of taxpayer money, making it the first of the stress-tested banks to need additional government capital. Treasury will likely inject another $2.8-5.6B into GMAC in exchange for preferred shares, bringing its total investment in GMAC thus far to $15.3-18.1B, for which it currently owns 35.4% of the firm. Sources say the FDIC has also agreed to backstop another $2.9B of GMAC's debt to facilitate day-to-day lending. The government's willingness to deepen taxpayer exposure to GMAC reflects the troubled lender's importance to the revival of the auto industry.
• Consumer confidence dips. A lower-than-expected consumer confidence reading sent a chill through markets Tuesday. Conference Board's index came in at 47.7, down from 53.4 a month ago, and lower than consensus estimates of 53.2. A plunge in expectations (65.7 vs. 73.3 in Sept.) led the way down. "Consumers' assessment of present-day conditions has grown less favorable, with labor market conditions playing a major role in this grimmer assessment," the group said, noting its Present Situation Index is now at a 26-year low. Analysts struggled to find an obvious explanation for the decline, but noted the drop didn't bode well for recovery hopes.
• Risk appetite withers. State Street's investor confidence index fell 10 points to 108.4, the lowest since April, with the most pronounced decline seen among North American investors (-12.8 to 101.1). European investors were also much more subdued (-9.3 to 101.8), but confidence rose among Asian investors, albeit to a level that still trails the U.S. and Europe (+2.4 to 95.3). "Institutional investors have paused to take stock," index co-developer Ken Froot said. "While the U.S. earnings season has been relatively robust so far, the number of positive surprises that have been observed in employment, retail sales, manufacturing and trade figures has diminished considerably, and this may be influencing investor risk appetite."
• Easing Hilton's towering debt load. Sources say Blackstone (BX) is in talks with lenders to shave about $5B off Hilton Worldwide's $20B debt load. Specifically, Blackstone is considering coughing up another $800M in equity to buy back debt at a discount (on top of its $5.6B original investment), and would like to extend debt maturing in 2013 to 2016. With capital markets reopening over the past six months, private-equity firms are using a variety of schemes (exchange offers, repurchases, tender offers) to refinance and extend the maturities on highly-leveraged debt taken on during the heyday, staving off default.
• Panel backs hedge-fund clampdown. The House Financial Services Committee overwhelmingly passed a bill that would require advisers to hedge funds, private equity and offshore funds to register with regulators, bringing some transparency to the loosely-policed industry. The bill, however, exempts venture capital funds and funds with less than $150M - which SEC chief Mary Schapiro warned "could come back to haunt investors in later years."
• Tackling too-big-to-fail. Rep. Barney Frank unveiled legislation to monitor and dissolve systemically critical financial institutions. Under the proposal, costs for taking over and euthanizing a failed bank would be paid for by shareholders and bondholders, with taxpayers temporarily covering the overflow until an assessment is rendered against the failed bank's surviving peers. A council of regulators - including the FDIC, Treasury, Fed and SEC - would be in charge of monitoring the conglomerates and invoking a wind-down if necessary.
• That's a good czar. While so-called pay czar Kenneth Feinberg's new rules for TARP backed firms cut compensation by about half, they also boosted base salaries by 14% to an average of $438K/year after executives complained, according to an analysis in today's WSJ. The move appears to contradict Feinberg's stated goal of tying pay to long-term performance, and "deepens the confusion and skepticism" surrounding the types of pay systems the government is promoting.
• Ford shows why it's #1. Consumer Reports' much-awaited yearly car reliability survey held few surprises, with foreign automakers dominating its top-10 list, and domestic brands prominently featured on its least-reliable tally. Scion took top spot, followed by Honda (HMC), Toyota (TM) and Infiniti (NSANY). Ford (F), at #10, was the only U.S. carmaker to make the grade. Least reliable brands were Chrysler, Cadillac, Dodge and Jeep. Media reports yesterday claimed Fiat models will drive Chrysler's turnaround efforts, but with new cars not due until 2012, it's unclear whether Chrysler has enough staying power in its balance sheet.
• Ruiz pegged as AMD insider. Sources say former AMD (AMD) CEO Hector Ruiz is the insider government officials have identified as providing nonpublic information to Galleon's insider trading scheme. Prosecutors released fragments of recorded conversations between an unnamed AMD executive and a Galleon employee in which they allegedly discuss the timing of the spinoff of AMD’s plants before the deal was announced in Sept. 2008. Ruiz hasn’t been charged, and prosecutors don’t say he profited from insider trading.
• Gloom on economy spreads. Americans are growing increasingly pessimistic about the economy after a mild upswing in September, according to WSJ/NBC's monthly poll released Wednesday. For the first time during the Obama presidency, a majority of those polled now see the country as being on the wrong track. Fifty-eight percent think the economic slide still has a ways to go, up from 52% in September, while only 29% think we've hit bottom, down from 35%.
• Mortgage apps drop for second straight week. Mortgage applications fell another 12.3% following a 13.7% drop last week, even as the average rate for 30-year mortgages inched down to 5.04% from 5.07% a week ago. Refinancing was 16.2% lower.
• Ford picks Geely. Ford (F) selected a group led by China's Geely as the preferred bidder for its Volvo unit, a senior Geely executive said. Geely and Ford will now enter into exclusive negotiations over Volvo.

Earnings: Wed. Before Open

• ArcelorMittal (MT): Q3 income of $1.59B vs. consensus of $1.78B. Sees Q4 income of $2-2.4B. "We have seen the first signs of recovery in Q3... We should continue to see further gradual improvement through 2010, although the operating environment remains challenging." Shares -0.8% premarket. (PR)
• Ashland (ASH): FQ4 EPS of $0.96 beats by $0.06. Revenue of $2.11B (-4.6%) in-line. "Demand appears to be showing some signs of growth in many end markets." (PR)
• BorgWarner (BWA): Q3 EPS of $0.15 beats by $0.05. Revenue of $1.03B (-22%) in-line. "We continue to be cautiously optimistic about Q4." (PR)
• ConocoPhillips (COP): Q3 EPS of $1.00 beats by $0.06. Shares -0.1% premarket. (PR)
• Enterprise Products Partners L.P. (EPD): Q3 EPS of $0.36 misses by $0.06. Revenue of $4.6B (-27%) vs. $4.73B. (PR)
• CenterPoint Energy (CNP): Q3 EPS of $0.31 misses by $0.01. Revenue of $1.58B (-37.3%) in-line. (PR)
• Coca-Cola Enterprises (CCE): Q3 EPS of $0.51 beats by $0.05. Revenue of $5.57B (-3%) vs. $5.71B. (PR)
• General Dynamics (GD): Q3 EPS of $1.48 beats by $0.08. Revenue of $7.72B (+8.1%) in-line. (PR)
• Goodyear Tire & Rubber (GT): Q3 EPS of $0.45 beats by $0.05. Revenue of $4.38B (-15.2%) in-line. Shares +1.8% premarket. (PR)
• Hess (HES): Q3 EPS of $1.05 vs. consensus of $0.55. Revenue of $7.27B vs. $7.75B. Shares +1.8% premarket. (PR)
• Jones Apparel Group (JNY): Q3 EPS of $0.46 beats by $0.19. Revenue of $856M (-11.3%) vs. $867M. "We are cautiously optimistic that the holiday season will generate better financial results across the industry." Shares -13.8% premarket. (PR)
• International Paper (IP): Q3 EPS of $0.37 beats by $0.13. Revenue of $5.92B (-13.1%) in-line. "At the end of Q3, we began to see some modest improvements in demand in some segments of our paper and packaging businesses." Shares +3.8% premarket. (PR)
• Lazard (LAZ): Q3 EPS of $0.41 beats by $0.04. Revenue of $431M (-1.3%) vs. $400M. Believes corporate defaults will remain at high levels, on a more global scale than during the last cycle, and therefore expects that its restructuring business will continue to be very active. (PR)
• Level 3 Communications (LVLT): Q3 EPS of -$0.10 in-line. Revenue of $916M (-14.4%) vs. $926M. Shares -4.4% premarket. (PR)
• MeadWestvaco (MWV): Q3 EPS of $0.50 beats by $0.23. Revenue of $1.63B (-10.2%) in-line. "Given continued global economic uncertainty, future results are difficult to predict." (PR)
• Newell Rubbermaid (NWL): Q3 EPS of $0.38 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $1.45B (-17.7%) in-line. (PR)
• New York Community Bancorp (NYB): Q3 EPS of $0.26 in-line. "Although certain economic data suggests that the recession has ended, the Metro New York region we serve continues to be under duress." (PR)
• Nexen (NXY): Q3 EPS of C$0.23 beats by C$0.08. Revenue of C$1.1B (-50.4%) vs. $924M. Shares -0.1% premarket. (PR)
• Nomura (NMR): Q2 net income of ¥27.7B ($303M) vs. consensus of ¥11.5B. Revenue of ¥355B vs. ¥258B last year. Resumes ¥4/share dividend. (Bloomberg)
• Owens Corning (OC): Q3 EPS of $0.61 beats by $0.22. Revenue of $1.35B (-17.2%) in-line. On track to surpass $160M in cost savings this year. Shares +1.5% premarket. (PR)
• Praxair (PX): Q3 EPS of $1.02 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $2.29B (-19.8%) in-line. "Business conditions stabilized globally during the quarter... The strongest pick-up was in Asia and South America, where government stimulus programs have increased domestic demand and industrial production." (PR)
• Qwest Communications International (Q): Q3 EPS of $0.09 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $3.05B (-9.6%) in-line. Shares +3.5% premarket. (PR)
• SAP AG (SAP): Q3 net income of €435M vs. consensus of €454M. Sales of €2.51B vs. €2.63B. "While we are seeing signs of stabilization in the general environment, the market remains difficult. Q3 software and software-related service revenues came in lower than we expected mainly because of a particularly challenging environment in the emerging markets and Japan." Shares -7.6% premarket. (PR)
• Southern Company (SO): Q3 EPS of $0.99 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $4.68B (-13.8%) vs. $5.5B. (PR)
• SPX Corp. (SPW): Q3 EPS of $ beats by $. Revenue of $1.17B (-20.8%) in line. Sees full-year EPS of $3.80-4.00 vs. $3.96 consensus. "The global economic environment remains difficult and continues to impact our performance. Although some macroeconomic trends appear to be pointing toward a recovery, we expect our recovery to lag the broader economy." (PR)
• United Microelectronics (UMC): Q3 EPS of $0.08 beats by $0.04. Revenue of $853M (+11.1%) vs. $809M. (PR)
• WellPoint (WLP): Q3 EPS of $1.78 beats by $0.40. Revenue of $15.21B (+784%) in-line. Medical enrollment fell 1.5M to 35.3M, primarily due to the recession and a rise in unemployment. Shares -14.3% premarket. (PR)
• Wyndham (WYN): Q3 EPS of $0.58 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $1.02B (-17.1%) in-line. Shares +1% premarket. (PR)

Earnings: Tue. After Close

• Ace (ACE): Q3 EPS of $2.07 beats by $0.10. Revenue of $3.39B (-6%) vs. $3.33B. Expects meaningfully stronger revenue growth in Q4. Shares +2.3% AH. (PR)
• Amkor Technology (AMKR): Q3 EPS of $0.12 misses by $0.07. Revenue of $616M (-14%) vs. $604M. Sees Q4 EPS of $0.17-0.23 vs. $0.16. Shares -1.5% AH. (PR)
• Apollo Group (APOL): FQ4 EPS of $1.06 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $1.08B (+30%) vs. $1.03B. Announces an informal SEC inquiry into revenue recognition practices. Shares -19.8% AH. (PR)
• Boston Properties (BXP): Q3 FFO of $1.13 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $359M (+6%) vs. $353M. Sees Q4 FFO of $1.04-1.06 vs. $1.09. (PR)
• Century Aluminum Company (CENX): Q3 EPS of $0.45. Revenue of $229M (-59%) vs. $225M. Results impacted by $55.6M net after-tax benefit related to contract replacement. Shares +3.8% AH. (PR)
• Cephalon (CEPH): Q3 EPS of $1.62 beats by $0.21. Revenue of $549M (+10%) vs. $559M. Sees full-year sales of $2.125B-2.175B vs. $2.22B. Shares +1.4% AH. (PR)
• Chicago Bridge & Iron (CBI): Q3 EPS of $0.42 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $1B (-38%) vs. $1.1B. Shares +5.4% AH. (PR)
• Dreamworks Animation (DWA): Q3 EPS of $0.23 beats by $0.07. Revenue of $135M (-10.6%) vs. $129M. Shares +0.4% AH. (PR)
• E*TRADE Financial (ETFC): Q3 EPS of -$0.05 beats by $0.01. At-risk delinquencies declined by 10% and provision for loan losses decreased by $57M to $347M. Shares +0.6% AH. (PR)
• Fiserv (FISV): Q3 EPS of $0.92 in-line. Revenue of $992M (-5%) vs. $1.05B. Shares -2.6% AH. (PR)
• Harris (HRS): FQ1 EPS of $0.83 beats by $0.06. Revenue of $1.2B (-3%) in-line. Shares +5.4% AH. (PR)
• Illumina (ILMN): Q3 EPS of $0.17 misses by $0.03. Revenue of $158M (+5%) vs. $167M. Shares -14.8% AH. (PR)
• Integrated Device Technology (IDTI): FQ2 EPS of $0.07 beats by $0.05. Revenue of $140M (-30%) vs. $131M. Shares +4.2% AH. (PR)
• Massey Energy Company (MEE): Q3 EPS of $0.19 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $642M (-16%) vs. $677M. Shares -7.4% AH. (PR)
• McKesson (MCK): FQ2 EPS of $1.11 beats by $0.09. Revenue of $27.1B (+1.9%) vs. $26.75B. Sees full-year EPS of $4.45-4.60 vs. consensus of $4.29. Shares +1.9% AH. (PR)
• Molex (MOLX): FQ1 EPS of $0.18 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $674M (-20%) vs. $661M. Sees Q2 EPS of $0.11-0.15 vs. $0.19, including pretax restructuring charge of about $0.07 after tax. Shares -1% AH. (PR)
• Nalco Company (NLC): Q3 EPS of $0.20 misses by $0.05. Revenue of $957M (-14%) vs. $961M. (PR)
• Norfolk Southern (NSC): Q3 EPS of $0.81 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $2.1B (-29%) in-line. Shares +1.8% AH. (PR)
• Panera Bread Company (PNRA): Q3 EPS of $0.61 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $335M (+6%) vs. $334M. Same-store sales increased 3.3%. Sees Q4 EPS of $0.85-0.87 vs. $0.85, and full-year EPS of $3.05-3.15 vs. $3.04. Shares +5.2% AH. (PR)
• Pharmaceutical Product Development (PPDI): Q3 EPS of $0.32 in-line. Revenue of $341M (-13%) vs. $334M. Sees full-year EPS of $1.38-1.40 vs. $1.34, on revenue of $1.29B-1.32B vs. $1.34B. Shares +0.2% AH. (PR)
• RF Micro Devices (RFMD): FQ2 EPS of $0.13 beats by $0.04. Revenue of $255M (-6%) vs. $234M. Shares +7.1% AH. (PR)
• ValueClick (VCLK): Q3 EPS of $0.15 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $130M (-12.1%) vs. $129M. Sees Q4 EPS of $0.15-0.16 vs. consensus of $0.17 on revenue of $128-138M vs. $142M. Shares +1.8% AH. (PR)
• Visa (V): FQ4 EPS of $0.74 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $1.9B (+10%) vs. $1.8B. Sees 2010 revenue growth at lower end of 11-15% range. Sees 2011 growth of more than 20%. Shares +1.9% AH. (PR)

Today's Markets

Overseas markets moved lower Wednesday and futures are under pressure.

Who is the King of Retail? Ross Stores (ROST), BJ's Wholesale (BJ)

I’m not sure how this sector didn’t fall on my radar yesterday, but if you’re looking for momentum, look no further. I really don’t understand what our Government is thinking, devoting 2 billion dollars that they don’t even have to what is essentially free money to people who want to buy a new car. Our country has turned into one big handout after another. Don’t people realize that we’re going to have to fund this through higher taxes in the future? And think of the interest that is going to accumulate on that loan. It’s really a trick to get people to go out and spend which is the exact opposite of what you should be doing.

Here is a link to a video describing the pros and cons of the program.

By Bob O'Brien

It was quite funny just last week at the White House Correspondence Dinner when President Obama joked about how the magazine “Car and Driver” named him the “Auto Executive of the Year”. (Click here if you missed Late Night with Obama)

The announcement a few days ago by President Obama to decrease fuel consumption by 2016 (see CNBC article) still has some scratching their heads, given the head-winds the automakers already face. Nonetheless, it is what it is, so you might as well start considering investment opportunities.

A few days ago, Phil LeBeau, the CNBC Automotive Reporter, posted a nice article at his Behind The Wheel blog outlining a few companies that are poised to take advantage of the lower emission and higher fuel economy standards coming down the pike (see the post). The main idea behind the investment opportunities is that to lower emissions and increase mileage, cars will need to become lighter and/or more efficient. Five companies that could offer help in these areas include the following:

Fortress Stays Strong (FIG)

Private equity firm Fortress jumped on Friday in spite of President Obama's harsh words for hedge funds over Chrysler's collapse. While Fortress was not directly involved, the entire sector is bore the brunt of the criticism. So why did shares of Fortress rise? Karen thinks investors see potential in the sector, especially since it got so brutally punished during the worst of the crisis. However Joe Terranova thinks the gain was the result of a short squeeze, and he wouldn't invest in the space.

• Chrysler Ch. 11 imminent. Talks between Chrysler lenders and the Treasury broke down Wednesday, making it all but certain that the automaker will file for bankruptcy today. Government officials say everything is in place to ensure the company makes it through court quickly, possibly in as little as a few weeks. Even as the automaker prepares for a likely bankruptcy, Obama said he's hopeful Chrysler will be able to push forward with a Fiat alliance.
• GM bondholders prep counteroffer. General Motors' (GM) bondholders plan to reject GM's April 27 debt exchange offer, and to present a counteroffer that would give them control of the automaker. Sources say the counteroffer proposes that bondholders and a UAW retiree medical fund both exchange all their claims for equity stakes of 58% and 41% respectively. Common shareholders would be left with 1% ownership. A committee representing bondholders will present the alternative plan to the auto task force today. Shares +3.9% premarket (7:00 ET).
• FOMC: recession is easing. As expected, the FOMC kept rates steady at 0-0.25%. The committee pointed to signs of economic improvement, and forecast a gradual recovery amid market weakness: "Although the economic outlook has improved modestly since the March meeting, partly reflecting some easing of financial market conditions, economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time. Nonetheless, the Committee continues to anticipate that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and market forces will contribute to a gradual resumption of sustainable economic growth in a context of price stability." Even as the FOMC took note of some 'green shoots' in markets, it left the door open to boosting emergency financial programs if necessary. (Read the FOMC statement)
• 100+ PPIP applications. More than 100 firms applied to participate in PPIP, the Treasury's toxic-asset purchase program. At least five will get preliminary approval by May 15, at which point they can begin raising the expected minimum of $500M in private capital. (Read the Treasury's statement)
• Lewis ousted as chairman. A shareholder proposal removed Bank of America (BAC) CEO Ken Lewis from his position as chairman of the board, a possible precursor to his eventual replacement as CEO. The proposal passed narrowly, with 50.34% of the vote. Board member Walter Massey will assume the chairman's post.
• State Street probed over mortgage securities. Massachusetts' top securities regulator launched a probe into whether State Street Corp (STT) misled pension funds over the risk level of certain investments. In particular, regulators are investigating whether State Street represented mortgage-backed securities as low-risk vehicles, and whether funds marketed as safe held 'potentially inappropriate' derivatives, swaps and other securities. A State Street spokeswoman declined to comment.
• FBI probes Freddie losses. The FBI is reportedly investigating possible accounting violations at Freddie Mac (FRE), trying to determine whether the mortgage giant improperly delayed the recognition of billions of dollars of losses. The losses, incurred from 2001-2004, were connected to derivatives contracts and are due to be gradually recognized in quarterly earnings statements over the next several years.
• IBM offers pre-stimulus financing. IBM (IBM) is offering $2B in financing to customers who want to invest in broadband and healthcare technologies but are waiting to receive government stimulus funds. Since much of the government funding won't reach companies until 2010 or later, IBM sees this as a way to "jump-start those investments and jump-start the benefits."
• Budget approved. Congress approved a $3.5T budget outline for 2010, which includes special funds to pay for sweeping changes in health care, education and energy. Democrats said their budget outline will cut the deficit by more than 50% in five years. Republicans argued the reduced deficit projections omit costs, such as disaster relief, from future-year expenditures.
• IACI goes match-making. IAC/InterActiveCorp (IACI) is in talks to buy Yahoo Personals, Yahoo's (YHOO) online dating service. Yahoo has considered selling the matchmaking site in the past, and CEO Carol Bartz has expressed her interest in selling or shuttering non-core businesses. The dating site could be worth around $500M.
• Time Warner, AOL prepare to part. Time Warner (TWX) said it's preparing to move ahead with a spinoff of all or part of its struggling AOL unit, and a decision is expected 'very soon.' The company also plans to buy back Google's (GOOG) 5% stake in AOL.
• Visa beats forecast on cost cuts, debit use. Visa (V) posted better-than-expected quarterly results (see details below) as the company increased prices and cut costs. The company also benefited from consumers' increased reliance on debit cards The number of Visa-branded cards grew 8% globally to more than 1.7B, while the number of transactions processed on its network climbed 9%.
• Starbucks to focus on value. Starbucks (SBUX) narrowly beat expectations for quarterly earnings (see details below) on cost cuts. Trying to re-brand itself for the economic times, Starbucks plans to launch a multimillion dollar campaign challenging the view that coffee is an expensive luxury. The company will also selectively lower prices on some of its popular drinks while slightly raising prices on larger, more complex beverages.
• MGM finds project financing. MGM Mirage (MGM) and Dubai World reached an agreement with lenders to fully finance their $8.5B CityCenter project in Las Vegas, and Dubai World dismissed its lawsuit against MGM. The project is on track to open in December 2009.
• Apple builds chip-design team. Apple (AAPL) is shifting strategy with plans to build its own team for chip design. The company hopes the move will shield Apple's work from rivals and lead to the development of exclusive features for its gadgets.
• GDP worse than expected. Advanced Q1 GDP was -6.1% vs. consensus of -4.7% and last quarter's -6.3%. Personal consumption increased 2.2% vs. consensus of +0.9% and prior -4.3%. The price index rose 2.9% vs. consensus of +1.8% and prior +0.5%.
• BoJ holds rates steady. Bank of Japan kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 0.1%. The bank will release its economic outlook today, and will likely forecast a deeper contraction than the 2% drop predicted three months ago.

Earnings: Thursday Before Open

• Alliant Energy (LNT): Q1 EPS of $0.30 misses by $0.24. (PR)
• Ashland (ASH): FQ2 EPS of $0.64 beats by $0.34. Revenue of $2.0B (-3.4%) vs. $2.1B. (PR)
• BorgWarner (BWA): Q1 EPS of -$0.12 beats by $0.08. Revenue of $819.5M (-45.3%) vs. $854M. (PR)
• Cardinal Health (CAH): FQ3 EPS of $0.97 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $24.9B (+8.9%) vs. $24.0B. (PR)
• Celgene (CELG): Q1 EPS of $0.44 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $601M (+29.9%) vs. $602M. (PR)
• CIGNA (CI): Q1 EPS of $0.69 misses by $0.22. Revenue of $4.8B (+4.5%) in-line. (PR)
• CMS Energy (CMS): Q1 EPS of $0.30 in-line. Revenue of $2.1B (-3.6%) in-line. (PR)
• Colgate-Palmolive (CL): Q1 EPS of $0.97 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $3.5B (-5.7%) vs. $3.6B. (PR)
• Comcast (CMCSA): Q1 EPS of $0.27 beats by $0.04. Revenue of $8.4B (-5%) vs. $8.8B. (PR)
• Covidien (COV): FQ2 EPS of $0.69 misses by $0.16. Revenue of $2.7B (+11.3%) vs. $2.6B. (PR)
• Digital Realty Trust (DLR): Q1 EPS of $0.70 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $149M (+30.2%) vs. $147M. (PR)
• Dominion Resources (D): Q1 EPS of $0.97 beats by $0.09. Revenue of $4.8B (+9.8%) vs. $4.1B. (PR)
• Dow Chemical (DOW): Q1 EPS of $0.12 beats by $0.33. Revenue of $9.1B (-38.7%) vs. $11.7B. Shares +1.4% premarket (6:50 ET). (PR)
• Eastman Kodak (EK): Q1 EPS of -$1.34 misses by $1.01. Revenue of $1.5B (-29.4%) vs. $1.6B. (PR)
• Entegris (ENTG): Q1 EPS of -$0.34 misses by $0.09. Revenue of $59M (-60.2%) vs. $71M. (PR)
• EQT Corp. (EQT): Q1 EPS of $0.55 misses by $0.01. Revenue of $260M (-1.6%) vs. $310M. (PR)
• ExxonMobil (XOM): Q1 EPS of $0.92 misses by $0.03. Revenue of $64.03B (-45.2%) vs. $54.03B. Shares +0.6% premarket. (AP)
• GrafTech International Ltd (GTI): Q1 EPS of $0.04 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $134M (-53.8%) vs. $153M. (PR)
• International Paper (IP): Q1 EPS of $0.08 beats by $0.12. Revenue of $5.7B (+0%) vs. $6.3B. (PR)
• Iron Mountain (IRM): Q1 EPS of $0.20 beats by $0.08. Revenue of $723M (-3.5%) vs. $722M. (PR)
• KBR (KBR): Q1 EPS of $0.48 beats by $0.05. Revenue of $3.2B (+27%) vs. $2.9B. (PR)
• Kellogg (K): Q1 EPS of $0.89 beats by $0.10. Revenue of $3.2B (-2.7%) in-line. (PR)
• Kimco Realty (KIM): Q1 EPS of $0.43 misses by $0.01. Revenue of $194M (+2.7%) vs. $191M. (PR)
• LKQ Corp. (LKQX): Q1 EPS of $0.23 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $518M (+5.3%) vs. $523M. (PR)
• LM Ericsson Telephone (ERIC): Q1 EPS of $0.54 misses by $0.17. Revenue of $49.6B (+12.2%) vs. $42.3B. Shares -5.8% premarket (6:50 ET). (PR)
• Motorola (MOT): Q1 EPS of -$0.10 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $5.4B (-27.9%) vs. $5.55B. Shares -16% premarket (7:00 ET). (PR)
• Mylan Laboratories (MYL): Q1 EPS of $0.33 beats by $0.05. Revenue of $1.2B (+12.6%) in-line. (PR)
• Newell Rubbermaid (NWL): Q1 EPS of $0.20 beats by $0.12. Revenue of $1.2B (-16%) in-line. (PR)
• Newmont Mining (Holding Company) (NEM): Q1 EPS of $0.44 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $1.55B (-20.1%) vs. $1.40B. (PR)
• Noble Energy (NBL): Q1 EPS of $0.59 beats by $0.15. Revenue of $441M (-57%) vs. $598M. (PR)
• NRG Energy (NRG): Q1 EPS of $0.70 beats by $0.25. Revenue of $1.7B (+27.3%) vs. $1.2B. (PR)
• NYSE GROUP (NYX): Q1 EPS of $0.43 beats by $0.04. Revenue of $1.1B (+0.2%) in-line. (PR)
• OfficeMax (OMX): Q1 EPS of $0.23 beats by $0.07. Revenue of $1.91B (-17%) vs. $1.95B. (PR)
• Omnicare (OCR): Q1 EPS of $0.64 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $1.6B (+0.3%) in-line. Shares +3.3% premarket (8:10 ET). (PR)
• Oshkosh Corporation (OSK): FQ2 EPS of -$0.24 misses by $0.04. Revenue of $1.3B (-26.9%) vs. $1.5B. (PR)
• Owens Corning (OC): Q1 EPS of $0.04 beats by $0.08. Revenue of $1.1B (-20.6%) vs. $1.2B. (PR)
• Patterson-UTI Energy (PTEN): Q1 EPS of $0.11 misses by $0.03. Revenue of $296M (-41.3%) vs. $319M. (PR)
• Pennsylvania Real Estate Investment Trust (PEI): Q1 EPS of $0.71 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $73M (-0.8%) vs. $67M. Shares +1.2% premarket (8:10 ET). (PR)
• Pride International (PDE): Q1 EPS of $0.87 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $549M (+1.7%) vs. $555M. (PR)
• Procter & Gamble (PG): FQ3 EPS of $0.84 beats by $0.04. Revenue of $18.4B (-8%) vs. $18.9B. Shares +2.1% premarket (8:00 ET). (PR)
• Rayonier (RYN): Q1 EPS of $0.33 beats by $0.04. Revenue of $274M (-0.3%) vs. $286M. (PR)
• Regal Entertainment Group (RGC): Q1 EPS of $0.14 misses by $0.02. Revenue of $666M (+6.2%) vs. $651M. (PR)
• Sepracor (SEPR): Q1 EPS of $0.85 beats by $0.16. Revenue of $330M (+2.9%) vs. $329M. (PR)
• Spirit AeroSystems (SPR): Q1 EPS of $0.45 beats by $0.05. Revenue of $887M (-14.4%) vs. $859M. (PR)
• Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide (HOT): Q1 EPS of $0.14 beats by $0.10. Revenue of $1.1B (-23.7%) in-line. (PR)
• Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM): Q1 EPS of $0.01 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $1.2B (-57.9%) vs. $1.1B. Shares +4.5% premarket (8:00 ET). (PR)
• The Travelers Companies (TRV): Q1 EPS of $1.34 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $5.7B (-8.0%) vs. $6.1B. (PR)
• Tyco International (TYC): FQ2 EPS of $0.55 beats by $0.14. Revenue of $4.15B (-14.7%) vs. $4.2B. (PR)
• Viacom(B): Q1 EPS of $0.29 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $2.9B (-6.8%) vs. $3.0B. (PR)
• Watson Pharmaceuticals (WPI): Q1 EPS of $0.58 beats by $0.09. Revenue of $667M (+6.5%) vs. $638M. Shares +6.0% premarket (8:05 ET). (PR)
• Xcel Energy (XEL): Q1 EPS of $0.38 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $2.7B (-11%) vs. $3.1B. (PR)

Earnings: Wednesday After Close

• AFLAC (AFL): Q1 EPS of $1.22 beats by $0.06. Revenue of $4.82B (+12%) in-line. Total investments and cash of $61.7B down 1.7% Y/Y. Shares -2% AH. (PR)
• Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM): Q1 EPS of $0.35 beats by $0.26. Revenue of $111M (-10.5%) vs. $72M. Shares +1.7% AH. (PR)
• Akamai Technologies (AKAM): Q1 EPS of $0.43 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $210M (-1%) in-line. Announces $100M share repurchase. Shares +5.1% AH. (PR)
• Annaly Capital Management (NLY): Q1 EPS of $0.56 beats by $0.01. Shares +1.1% AH. (PR)
• Assurant (AIZ): Q1 EPS of $1.17 misses by $0.26. Revenue of $2.09B (-4.1%) vs. $2.24B. Shares -3.7% AH. (PR)
• Biomed Realty Trust (BMR): Q1 FFO of $0.51 beats by $0.06. Revenue of $94M (+39.4%) vs. $85M. (PR)
• Boston Properties (BXP): Q1 FFO of $1.36 beats by $0.11. Revenue of $377M (+1.6%) vs. $366M. (PR)
• CB Richard Ellis Group (CBG): Q1 EPS of -$0.03 misses by $0.05. Revenue of $890M (-27.7%) vs. $983M. Shares -0.15% AH. (PR)
• Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF): Q1 EPS of -$0.07 beats by $0.07. Revenue of $465M (-6%) vs. $528M. Shares -2.5%. (PR)
• Citrix Systems (CTXS): Q1 EPS of $0.32 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $369M (-2.1%) vs. $359M. Announces up to $300M share buyback. Shares +5.1% AH. PR)
• Covance (CVD): Q1 EPS of $0.63 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $441M vs. $429M. Sees full-year EPS of $2.50-2.70 vs. consensus of $2.88. Shares flat AH. (PR)
• Crown Castle International (CCI): Q1 EPS of $0.02 beats by $0.08. Revenue of $403M (+8.7%) vs. $392M. Shares +7% AH. (PR)
• Duke Realty (DRE): Q1 FFO of $0.50 in-line. Revenue of $238M (+5%) vs. $219M. Sees full-year FFO of $1.85-2.15 vs. $1.81. Shares flat AH. (PR)
• Equity Residential (EQR): Q1 FFO of $0.57 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $515M (+2.5%) vs. $523M. Shares flat AH. (PR)
• Express Scripts (ESRX): Q1 EPS of $0.86 beats by $0.04. Revenue of $5.42B (-1.2%) in-line. Full-year guidance in-line. Shares +1.3% AH. (PR)
• First Solar (FSLR): Q1 EPS of $1.99 beats by $0.48. Revenue of $418M (+112.4%) vs. $403M. Shares +13.4% premarket. (PR)
• Flextronics International (FLEX): FQ4 EPS of $0.03 misses by $0.01. Sees FQ1 revenue of $5-6B vs. $6.2B consensus. Shares -3.3% AH. (PR)
• Genco Shipping (GNK): Q1 EPS of $1.32 beats by $0.06. Revenue of $96.7M (+5.4%) vs. $96M. Shares +0.5% AH. (PR)
• Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR): FQ2 EPS of $0.50 beats by $0.14. Revenue of $193M (+60%) vs. $178M. Sees full-year EPS of $1.47-1.53 vs. $1.31. Shares +20.4% AH. (PR)
• Harman International (HAR): FQ3 EPS of -$0.84 misses by $0.40. Revenue of $598M (-42.1%) vs. $668M. Suspends dividend. Shares -4.7% AH. (PR)
• JDS Uniphase (JDSU): FQ3 EPS of -$0.03 in-line. Revenue of $281M vs. $285M. Sees FQ4 revenue of $265-285M vs. consensus of $290M. Shares -12% AH. (PR)
• Kaiser Aluminum (KALU): Q1 EPS of $0.81 vs. consensus of $0.42. Revenue of $266M (-33.4%) vs. $277M. Shares +1.7% AH. (PR)
• LSI Logic (LSI): Q1 EPS of -$0.03 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $482M vs. $469M. Shares -0.2% AH. (PR)
• Northeast Utilities (NU): Q1 EPS of $0.60 beats by $0.05. Revenue of $1.59B (+4.8%) in-line. Shares -4.9% AH. (PR)
• Oceaneering International (OII): Q1 EPS of $0.80 beats by $0.12. Revenue of $435M (-0.2%) vs. $461M. Shares flat AH. (PR)
• O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY): Q1 EPS of $0.47 beats by $0.07. Revenue of $1.16B (+80.1%) in-line. Shares +3% AH. (PR)
• Owens-Illinois (OI): Q1 EPS of $0.55 beats by $0.19. Revenue of $1.52B (-22.5%) vs. $1.66B. Shares +11.3% AH. (PR)
• ProLogis (PLD): Q1 EPS of $0.66 misses by $0.04. Revenue of $455M vs. $245M. Shares -3.5% AH. (PR)
• Realty Income (O): Q1 EPS of $0.45 misses by $0.01. Revenue of $82.9M vs. $81.9M. (PR)
• Ryland Group (RYL): Q1 EPS of -$1.76 misses by $0.74. Revenue of $265M (-36.3%) vs. $235M. Shares -1.8% AH. (PR)
• Skechers (SKX): Q1 EPS of $0.18 beats by $0.27. Revenue of $343M (-10.8%) vs. $333M. "We are continuing to monitor our expenses and inventory levels to ensure maximum profitability in this soft economic environment, which we believe will continue to negatively impact our business." Shares +5.6% AH. (PR)
• Smith & Nephew (SNN): Q1 EPS of $0.13 misses by $0.49. Revenue of $865M (-5%) vs. $902M. Shares +0.45% premarket. (PR)
• Starbucks (SBUX): FQ2 EPS of $0.16 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $2.3B in-line. Shares +1.5% AH. (PR)
• STMicroelectronics (STM): Q1 EPS of -$0.31 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $1.66B (+33%) in-line. (PR)
• Taubman Centers (TCO): Q1 EPS of $0.70 beats by $0.12. Revenue of $158M (+0.2%) vs. $146M. Shares -0.3% AH. (PR)
• Teradyne (TER): Q1 EPS of -$0.38 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $121M (+59.4%) in-line. Shares +3.7% AH. (PR)
• Unum Group (UNM): Q1 EPS of $0.62 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $2.45B vs. $2.57B. Shares -0.1% AH. (PR)
• Visa (V): FQ2 EPS of $0.73 beats by $0.09. Revenue of $1.65B (+13.4%) in-line. Affirms full-year outlook - high-single digits in 21009 and the lower range of 11-15% in 2010. Volume growth of $675B down 1% Y/Y. Shares -0.1% AH. (PR)
• Walter Industries (WLT): Q1 EPS of $1.36 beats by $0.51. Revenue of $290M (+20.7%) vs. $316M. Shares +6.6% AH. (PR)
• Whiting Petroleum (WLL): Q1 EPS of -$0.92 misses by $0.20. Revenue of $164M in-line. (PR)

Today's Markets

Overseas markets posted strong gains Thursday, and futures are sharply higher.

Some of the best economic discussions I’ve had this month were with my automechanic. We’ve discussed solar power. Land use laws. Housing development. And yes, trends in new and used auto sales. We are both firmly in agreement: new auto sales in North America peaked this decade and are unlikely to see those levels again for a long, long time.

Morgan Stanley (MS) – Option traders spend a meager 30 cent premium to secure rights to purchase shares in Morgan Stanley at a fixed $26.00 ahead of March expiration. Today MS shares are 8.2% ahead at $20.35 as investors revisit the evergreen question of whether or not banking stocks look attractive yet. There was also a willingness to sell premium by writing puts at the March 20 strike for around 2.10, which helps explain the slide in options implied volatility today to 104% from 114% on Monday. Sellers here would lose money should MS fall beneath $17.90 at expiration. Investors are taking a bullish perspective on the stock following a Charlie Rose television interview with CEO, John Mack in which he noted that the company has deleveraged from around $31 to $12 since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September. Mr. Mack also noted that his company will likely suffer from a curtailment of its activities after it meets with regulators over coming months.

Q4 2008 Earnings Call

February 12, 2009 9:30 AM ET

• The new New Deal. The House and the Senate have drafted a compromise stimulus bill totalling $789.5B, all but guaranteeing the largest economic rescue program since Roosevelt's New Deal. Obama hailed the "endeavor of enormous scope and scale," though it may turn out to be just a down payment on efforts to turn around the economy. The package, which exceeds the cost of the entire Iraq war since the 2003 invasion, will expand unemployment insurance, streamline health-care delivery, give Washington more control over local education spending and tilt federal assistance to the poor. Around 35% of the package is earmarked for tax cuts. Obama and Democratic leaders lowered their expectations for job creation to 3.5M from 4M. Both chambers could approve the compromise bill by the end of the week.
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Having been so intrigued by James Altucher's pick Cynosure (CYNO), I decided to listen to his longer individual presentation on the demographic investing opportunities explored in his new book. Altucher is a manager of a fund of hedge funds called Formula Capital and, like myself, has a background in computer science. One of the organizers of the World Money Show said that Altucher would be willing to be interviewed, but since my e-mails went unresponded, apparently, not interviewed by someone writing for SeekingAlpha. Oh well, I suppose RealMoney and TheStreet.com are fighting hard for web traffic these days. Regardless, I find Altucher's ideas interesting and thought it would be worthwhile to examine some of the themes that he sees driving profits and high equity returns through the next few years (aside from tattoo removal).

Obesity

It's pretty clear that obesity is an enormous problem in the U.S., but apparently the old favorites NutriSystem (NTSI) and Weight Watchers (WTW) may not be the best way to play this unfortunate trend. While drug makers search for new obesity treatments to find a quicker fix, Altucher found an interesting corollary play related to sleep apnea in the form of ResMed (RMD). According to SleepEducation.com, there is a strong relationship between weight and obstructive sleep apnea (OSA), with OSA being most common in obese, middle-aged men. ResMed makes diagnostic and treatment equipment for sleep-disordered breathing. At 27x trailing/16x forward EPS, there is a lot of growth priced in to RMD shares. His other obesity related idea is small cap Synovis Life Technologies (SYNO) which makes biomaterial surgical staples and related products that are used in, among other procedures, gastric bypass surgery. I wonder how New York Governor Patterson's proposed soda tax fits into this thesis!

Although the writing has been on the wall for some time now regarding Obama's willingness to move aggressively on the environment file, few expected his first substantive move to have to do with vehicle fuel economy. On Monday, the President requested that the EPA reassess its earlier decision (taken when the Bush administration was still in power) to deny California the right to set and enforce its own fuel economy and car emissions standards above and beyond those set at the federal level.

Not only are California's standards much tougher than the current federal ones (the state is seeking 42.5 miles per gallon by 2020 vs. 35 at the Federal level, a nearly 22% difference), but 16 other states plan on eventually following suit, together accounting for at least 50% of all cars sold in the US. Unsurprisingly, the auto industry, which is currently contending with a complete collapse in demand, isn't impressed.

U.S. companies that supply the auto industry are on bankruptcy watch, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal Monday morning, which says many in the sector are lining up financial and legal advice for possible bankruptcy filings.

It was fairly obvious to Research Recap back in mid-December that the auto suppliers would be the next shoe to drop in the worsening auto recession, following ratings downgrades in the sector from Moody’s Investor Services.

There is a very interesting article in smartmoney.com. Its lists the top returns from the bottom of the last depression in 1933 to 1954.

To my surprise, most companies are still with us today.

Auto suppliers face increasing pressure as the Bush Administration continued to deliberate about a possible auto industry bailout over the weekend and White House officials warned there was little likelihood of an announcement by Monday.

In an article this weekend, Barron’s pointed out that a bailout would not be a panacea but a stop-gap measure for the industry until the Obama administration is in place.