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Thursday, December 1, 2011, 8:31 AM Brazil's November PMI jumps to 48.7 from 46.5 previously. The country was among the first of the emerging markets to initiate a monetary easing cycle, and cut rates for the 3rd time in 3 months yesterday. Markit provides a longer term chart of BRIC PMIs, all near flatline territory at the moment. (PR) 2 Comments [Global & FX]
Wednesday, November 30, 2011, 5:18 PM As expected, Brazil's central bank cuts its benchmark rate 50 basis points to 11%. "By timely mitigating the effects of a more restrictive global environment, a moderate adjustment in the base rate is consistent with the convergence of the inflation scenario with the target in 2012." Comment! [Global & FX, Breaking News]
Wednesday, November 30, 2011, 2:51 PM Brazil's central bank is expected to announce its 3rd consecutive rate cut after markets close today, bringing its benchmark down 50 bps to 11%. The bank was ahead of the curve and took flack for what now looks to be a prescient move by beginning its easing cycle back in August. EWZ +4.6%. Comment! [Global & FX]
Wednesday, November 30, 2011, 7:08 AM Given the horrid investment performance of the BRICs, SocGen's professional bear Albert Edwards suggests the acronym ought to stand for Bloody Ridiculous Investment Concept. YTD: Brazil EWZ -28%, Russia -23%, India INDY -32%, China FXI -20%. Could China's move to easing turn things around? Comment! [Global & FX, Quick Ideas]
Tuesday, November 29, 2011, 9:04 AM Europe's issues are secular and global, writes Bill Gross, "reflecting worldwide delevering and growth dynamics that began in 2008." In this environment, 5% long term portfolio growth will put investors near the top of the class. Focus on the "cleanest dirty shirts" - U.S., Canada, U.K., and Oz - as well as a resource-rich EMs like Brazil. Comment! [Global & FX]
Wednesday, November 23, 2011, 10:36 AM The real is tumbling (BZF -2.1%) - a natural as risk moves to "off" - but also reflecting Brazil's reliance China, whose economic slowdown looks to be accelerating. An excellent proxy for Brazil, China, and the whole emerging growth story is VALE, -4.3% today, 34% YTD, selling for 5X earnings. Comment! [Global & FX, On the Move, Commodities, Quick Ideas]
Monday, November 21, 2011, 11:19 AM Wild action in the currency markets where the euro is having none of this "risk off" action, soaring in the past few minutes to $1.3521, unchanged for the day. The other "risk" currencies - the aussie, the loonie, the real, the peso ... all remain sharply lower. Something's up. 5 Comments [Global & FX, On the Move]
Friday, November 11, 2011, 4:45 PM Those with a bit of memory will be pleased to see a withdrawal of a proposal that would have expanded the Brazilian central bank's mandate to include targeting growth as well as inflation. Some other good news for owners of reals, inflation in October slowed to a 6.97% Y/Y pace from 7.31% in September. Real ETF: BZF flat YTD. Comment! [Global & FX]
Monday, November 7, 2011, 10:37 AM Among the winners thus far today are Brazilian shares (EWZ +1%). Taking note of the woes of Brazil's stocks this year (Bovespa -20%), Barron's points out the still-solid growth of the economy as well as a central bank firmly in easing mode with a lot of room between policy rates (11.5%) and zero. Comment! [Global & FX, Quick Ideas]
Tuesday, November 1, 2011, 11:19 AM Brazil's industrial output slumped in September more than expected, prompting increased speculation interest rates cuts are in the offing. The IBGE reports a 2% drop in output - partially due to lagging automobile production - after economists projected a 1.3% falloff. Analysts now see the central bank pushing the Selic interest rate down to 9.5% from its current level of 11.5%. Comment! [Global & FX]
Tuesday, November 1, 2011, 10:08 AM Brazil's October PMI rises to 46.5 from 45.5 previously. It's the 5th consecutive month below 50. With great exposure to a slowing China, Brazilian shares are especially hard-hit, led by mining giant VALE -9.1%. The Brazil ETF: EWZ -7.6%. Comment! [Global & FX]
Friday, October 21, 2011, 9:57 AM The pummeling of the dollar may be the most important news of the day, which sniffs of additional Fed QE rather than Europe having solved its issues. A speech last night from the Fed's Daniel Tarullo arguing for additional MBS purchases looks to be the catalyst. Comment! [Global & FX, U.S. Economy, On the Move]
Wednesday, October 19, 2011, 9:36 AM September job growth in Brazil beats expectations, coming in at 209,078 vs. a forecast of 168,625 (Brazilian economists and statisticians clearly have a sense of humor). The fast number isn't dampening expectations for another 50 bp cut in rates at tonight's central bank meeting. EWZ -25% YTD. 2 Comments [Global & FX]
Tuesday, October 18, 2011, 12:05 PM "Dollar, dollar, dollar," says top notch FX strategist (now heading his own hedge fund) Stephen Jen, when asked by Dow Jones about his three favorite currencies to buy. He sees the greenback rallying against all of the "risk" currencies, with the euro falling to $1.25 within six months. Euro: FXE, Aussie, FXA, Real: BZF. 1 Comment [Global & FX, Quick Ideas]
Monday, October 10, 2011, 7:56 AM European shares are staging a tepid rally (Stoxx 50 +0.6%) in the wake of news Merkozy is planning a plan and the Dexia nationalization, but the euro is romping, +1.5% vs. the dollar to $1.3575. The greenback is sharply lower against nearly all of the major currencies, the dollar index -1.2%. 1 Comment [Global & FX]
Friday, October 7, 2011, 2:44 PM Brazilian inflation jumps to 7.3% in September - the highest level in over 6 years - leading some to question the central bank's surprise August rate cut. "The interest rate cut ... (is) acting as a trigger for the decline in the exchange rate, and that is exacerbating ... inflation," says an economist. Comment! [Global & FX]

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WisdomTree Brazilian Real ETF