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- Beware of Crumbling BRICs [view article]
- China’s Leaders Are Opening the Door for Profits [view article]
- China's Negative Economic Outlook [view article]
- Bullish on China After My Recent Visit [view article]
- Energy Demand: China vs. the World [view article]
- Investing in China's Falling Stock Market [view article]
- Where Are the Chinese Stock-Market Riots? [view article]
- Single Country Emerging Markets ETFs, ETNs and Closed-End Funds [view article]
- The Informal China Banking Sector is Growing [view article]
- China Rebalancing ETF Pair Trade [view article]
- Single Country Asia ETFs, ETNs and Closed-End Funds [view article]
- As China's Securities Regulations Are Modernized, Its Profit Potential Will Soar [view article]
loading ...Recent CAF Articles
- Beware of Crumbling BRICs
- China's Negative Economic Outlook
- Energy Demand: China vs. the World
- Investing in China's Falling Stock Market
- Where Are the Chinese Stock-Market Riots?
- Bullish on China After My Recent Visit
- Single Country Emerging Markets ETFs, ETNs and Closed-End Funds
- The Informal China Banking Sector is Growing
- China’s Leaders Are Opening the Door for Profits
- As China's Securities Regulations Are Modernized, Its Profit Potential Will Soar
- Full List of Articles »
Beware of Crumbling BRICs [view article]
Brazilian inflation has been mostly due to international pressure of comodities. however it's central bank has been responsible enough, differently from the FED, to start working on the inflacionary pressures early. The main world economy central banks should act in syncrony to combat inflation...Europe seems to be posed to do its share in cutting inflation, Brazil has already been doing that since long what about the (irresponsible )FED? I guess there is another countries at even greater risks, considering its "down-the-bottom&... weak currency. ReplyChina’s Leaders Are Opening the Door for Profits [view article]
the picture in china is mixed with the federal government making the right economic noises while lacking chain of command. in beijing the job market is loose for qualified individuals, with most college graduates unable to find work above 1200rmb/mo. that said, the large companies inland find that after learning skills quickly, workers learn to defraud the company. this has forced foreign companies into outsourcing many activities because only Chinese companies can beat their workers. with a culture built for the last forty years on lying and swindles and violence, the pathological lack of transparency, and a generation gap unlike anything foreigners could imagine, investors do well to tread carefully in a booming authoritarian economy that has not yet seen its first economic contraction. ReplyChina's Negative Economic Outlook [view article]
go away you pathetic westerns; we do not want your money. You all broke and your banks are worthless ; go worship your UBS and citi group, good night and good luck! ReplyBullish on China After My Recent Visit [view article]
Jeff, Five stars for your short article. I am recommending your article to many of my friends. You started it on the right note: "My favorite part of the trip was most definitely the people". I am a Canadian having been sent to China initially for three months by a Canadian government program followed by a two-year assignment by my employer. The experience was so positive that I later quit my job in Toronto and uprooted my family to come to China and have been here for almost 20 years. For the critics, I speak fairly fluent Mandarin and a little bit of Cantonese and other dialects. I have travelled to almost every corner of the country and covered all areas including the very poor and the very rich places because of my various jobs. Some of the critics seem so biased that even if I write ten more pages, it will not change their mind. One food-for-thought: In China today, the common people make fun of the government and criticize the state leaders with almost no fear, much less fear than in a democratic Singapore. Freedom is relative. As you correctly onserved, people are happy. They are happier than in 5, 10 or 20 years ago. (Regarding Tibet, it seems to be politically incorrect in the Western press to say anything good about Tibet. One statistics though: while there may be 50,000 Tibetans that are worst off today most of whom had fled China, the majority of the 2 million Tibetans are much better off today. The temples are also in better shape than any time in history as Tibet was always poor in the past with a handfull of rich serf owners similar to slavery times in the US.) I guess people in the US are also happier than 5, 10 or 20 years ago as humans are progressing and life is getting better everyday - materially (think of $$$), culturally and spiritually. Sometimes I joke with my Chinese staff/friends when having meals that we are enjoying better food than the rulers had in the palaces of yesteryears. Physically and materially it is true due to modernisation and science.Think of the impact of tourism: 40 million Chinese went abroad as tourists in 2007 - this was unthinkable politically or financially even a few years ago. There are probably more Chinese that have been to all of Thailand/Malaysia/Sing... than there are US citizens that have been to all of those countries. Very soon, there will be more Chinese that have visited Europe than there are US citizens that did it bacause Europe is open to Chinese citizens and is a most favourite spot now. That 40 million will be surpassed this year, add to that domestic tourism in the billions of person days. Now you should start to understand why China bought more planes from Boeing and Airbus than any other country. Give China another 20 years then history could judge whether the current government is doing the right things. In my observation, they are mostly doing the right things. They do need to do much more in polution controls, energy management and medical care, and they do need to improve the checks and balances in the financial system (most people won't know what I am talking about here and I won't go into details) and construction system that critics are quick to point out correctly as exposed by the earthquake. The existence of problems do not nullify the achievements. Let's all be factual. A properous and peaceful China is in the best interest of humankind today. That's what they have - prosperity and peace. Hope it continues.
Jeff, your observation that: "Most of the wealth in China is in hands of 45 year and younger age bracket" is very real. That's one reason why "Swiss bank account" is not an issue here, the money people make is being re-invested in sharp contrast to some other corrupted countries.
Come and see China, it will be healthy for your health, mind and finance. And it will be good for peace and prosperity for all. Reply
ing
Beware of Crumbling BRICs [view article]
EGY for Russia with some drops of UK and Nrth Africa ReplyBeware of Crumbling BRICs [view article]
"China also has an undervalued currency. If policymakers allowed the currency to float more freely, it would almost certainly erase a large chunk of that country's imported commodity price inflation."Higher RMB => more expensive goods made in China => higher inflation in US
Blue collar jobs complained most about China's RMB but now they are getting burned because of a richer RMB. Reply
Beware of Crumbling BRICs [view article]
Just read, belatedly, that Buffett recently said that the US is in "stagflation"... in which "stag-" will deepen, while "-flation" will continue to soar. Betting against Buffett is not my cup of milk, so let me think aloud: With some BRICs "damaged", we still have the other two. So, long Russia and Brazil? (and "so long" CHina and India?:)With Russia in particular: since russian ruble will continue to appreciate against the dollar, it makes sense converting dollar-denominated instruments into ruble-denominated ones and sleep quite happily on the Russian index (even their largest, fully state-insured bank offers 9% on ruble 3-month deposit.) Inflation or not, I'll be up in the end, for higher ruble securities eventually converting into diminishing dollar should make additional sense. With both Putin and his puppet gearing to combat inflation, russian growth may not be above 10% as it should be with this price of oil (which ain't coming down, folks), but even 8% GDP will do wonders for my Russian index.
Tell me if I am wrong. Ple-ease:)
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China's Negative Economic Outlook [view article]
"Insurance Companies? certainly but the entire stock market as well since these same Insurers would be liquidating the stocks they own to raise capital to pay the bills. "Most insurers own fixed income rather than stocks since regulatory authorities require more capital for equity holdings than fixed income. Notable exceptions are MKL, WTM, BRK and a few others. Reply
Beware of Crumbling BRICs [view article]
I was very big on Brazil until I read that Lula believes Obama's trade policies are very positive for Brazil. 54% tarrifs on Brazilian ethanol from the country which subsidizes sugar beet production. I don't think so. ReplyBeware of Crumbling BRICs [view article]
Thanks to both authors. I had a feeling India was in trouble and was glad to have my suspicion confirmed. I know China is dicey these days so I am only 10% long there. I am turning towards Brazil and appreciate the positive sentiment (relative to RIC). Thanks again. ReplyChina's Negative Economic Outlook [view article]
What will fall will be the commodity stocks listed in the US and Europe. Commodities will continue to rise intermitantly.China will slow from 12% to 10%, India wants to rise from 9% to 12%. The Olympics are limited to the area around Bejing not elsewhere. Snowstorm/Earthquake rebuilding will prevent any material demand destruction.
Recent IEA findings indicate oil production decreases roughly 3.5% annually worldwide, say 3 million Brls. Worldwide production has not met goals set every year for the past three years( not positive about where I read this, but it sounds about right).
There will be a big increase in Jet Fuel demand before and after the Olympics because most athletes will arrive that way as will visitors for the Games.
Think of it this way, if a 7.0 were to strike a major city in the US, what would go down immediately?
Insurance Companies? certainly but the entire stock market as well since these same Insurers would be liquidating the stocks they own to raise capital to pay the bills.
Credit Card defaults are beginning to accelerate. The loans that they represent have been packaged for years just like Subprime before them. Banks will start selling the stock they own which have appreciated the most. After that who knows. Reply
Schweitzer
Beware of Crumbling BRICs [view article]
If this concerns U S investors with BRIC-related holdings, shouldn't some of the commentary reflect "relative" rates of inflation; using, for example, the true rate of U.S. inflation? (see, Bill Gross and others)If the true U.S rate is about 5.3% (being adjusted closer to the "world average" of about 7%) the competitive edge for the PGJ index should increase.
It is interesting to note that the increase in supply of U.S. Dollars in an open economy, produces lower inflation rates than occur in "command" sytems such as China and Russia. Brazil has become more open and normal. India is a political mess with subsidies distorting the pricing mechanisms. Reply
China's Negative Economic Outlook [view article]
The changing shopping habbits of chinese housewifes will see petro prices down to $100. Plus, copper price will also face a big drop in August when Olympics games start. ReplyChina's Negative Economic Outlook [view article]
To James V:Important reserves may give the Chinese government an ABILITY to avoid default. But that does not mean they have the WILLINGNESS TO PAY, which indeed they have effectively PROVED they do not have.
An established FACT is that the Chinese governement is ALREADY in default to a great number of US citizens (and also maybe to the US govenment who I believe holds a considerable number of defaulted chinese bonds without enforcing payment, in which case it would be to the prejudice of all and any US taxpayer).
Have a good day. Reply
China's Negative Economic Outlook [view article]
But the chinese government has 1.6 trillion usd in reserves.There is no risk at all of soverign default ont heri part, unless the reserves fall under a trillion.
Even then they still have a lot saved up for a 'rainy day'
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