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- Can China Weather a Downturn? [view article]
- China's Negative Economic Outlook [view article]
- Global Market Roundup: Will the Bailout Work? [view article]
- The Great Firewall of China Faces Challenge During Olympics [view article]
- The Inevitable Collapse of China's Banks [view article]
- China Still Vulnerable to Slowdown, Despite Domestic Market 'Buffer' [view article]
- China: Holiday Thoughts on Misunderstanding Data [view article]
- Investing in China's Falling Stock Market [view article]
- Global Stock Markets: Surviving the Most Turbulent Week Since 1987 [view article]
- Quite a Reversal - China Central Bank Cuts Interest Rates [view article]
- China Finally Cuts Rates [view article]
- Shanghai Should Continue to Sell Off [view article]
Recent CAF Articles
- Can China Weather a Downturn?
- Global Stock Markets: The Crash of 2008?
- Global Market Roundup: Will the Bailout Work?
- China Still Vulnerable to Slowdown, Despite Domestic Market 'Buffer'
- China: Holiday Thoughts on Misunderstanding Data
- Global Stock Markets: Surviving the Most Turbulent Week Since 1987
- China Finally Cuts Rates
- Quite a Reversal - China Central Bank Cuts Interest Rates
- Shanghai Should Continue to Sell Off
- An Often Unmentioned Factor About Chinese Stocks
- Full List of Articles »
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China: Holiday Thoughts on Misunderstanding Data [view article]
Thank you for pointing out my discrimination for those low level school. My opinion is that those fen qing are from every school around this country, no matter how good or bad it is. But there is also something pretty interesting. When you take a look at Xiaonei.com, a chinese version facebook, you can always find: 1. Things most shared are those about ultranationalism 2. This kind of stuff are mostly writen by guys from those unknown schools. Why? Can we take this as a sample?Also, I guess the major of student matters a lot. A physical student may have far more possibility to be a fen qing than a law student. Because some majors demand Introspection on one's view of his or her home nation.
But all of this are just details, the main question: Will Ultranationalism become main stream? I'm a pessimist and my answer is yes. This is a long trend and its hard to stop it. The reason is what we call 'the wolf's milk', in other words, the education of ultrenationalism. It's just like a monster, which you can only produce it but not terminate it. Example: When leaders try to fix the relationship between china and japan, fen qing fire on leaders. Even the central controlled media system doesnt work well on deal with the anger.
And yes, data here is often without persuasiveness. Just look at what happens nowadays: More than half of beijing people support the traffic control plan, according to the survey. it's just hilarious.
Actually the main reason i went to Modern Sky Fest yesterday is that i want to watch live performance of He Yong, that legendary chinese rock artist. And i think in fact the Modern Sky Fest is not as good as that Midi Fest, for the second one is more pure and hardcore. Reply
China: Holiday Thoughts on Misunderstanding Data [view article]
Thanks for all the great comments. The main points I tried to make in the first part of my piece were: 1) As most of the comments implicitly ackowledge it is not very useful to assume that there is such a thing as "Chinese opinion" when in fact this is a very complex country undergoing huge social transformation and, not surprisingly, there is a very wide range of views including some very mixed feelings about the process of change. Chinese attitudes to China are at least as nuanced and conflicted as American attitudes to the US are, and the view of young people as being dominated by the fen qing (sorry for the typo) is no more accurate than to assume all young Austrians are neo-Nazis just because the neo-Nazis are more visible in the headlines. 2) This complexity and distrust has political and economic implications.And AWJ, I am not disparaging young people from elite colleges (nor are all my young friends from elite colleges -- I actually deal with a pretty wide group of people here). At Beida, Tsinghua, Renda, Zheda, Fudan and several of the other elite schools at which I taught and lectured I have met lots of very impressive students who have a great deal of idealism and are eager to see Chinese advance in a wide variety of areas, but there is no point assuming that elite students have any more objective view than students from what you unfairly call the "trash" schools. In fact Beida students know that, one way or the otjher, their prospects for advancing in China or going abroad (and all six of the people I spoke to Sunday night said they would not hesitate for a second to emigrate if they could, but it was too difficult for them to do so) are fairly good, and this cannot help but affect their feelings and observations.
By the way I agree with your dismay about Bjork's silly and self-interested behavior. If you are Modern Sky come see me at the Maybe Mars booth, where i spend a lot of time.
The second part of my peice was, I guess, a warning about my own perspectives. I am no more objective than anyone else, but my many years experience in other developing countries leaves me very wary of the claim that economic processes are different in China. I think we need to look at data in China and understand that even when the data is right, it can give us a view that is the opposite of reality because the system has so many moving parts and they react in sometimes contradictory ways to each other. Reply
China: Holiday Thoughts on Misunderstanding Data [view article]
It is not clear what your point might be: China is a land of many thoughts, or the government is less than it appears? Both right. I live in Beijing and I too teach at the University, but I have not got the insights of this author who assumes his conversations are informative. My view China and most Chinese are pragmatic and seek only the best in each situation, not maximization of position, but satisfying based on personal energy. In a more Macroeconomic sense China is still seized up in development of its economy and its largest concern is continued export markets. The political process is still very unstable and could go a number of ways. The elites are ready to form up politically, but the party will not allow that so the next best thing is to be well represented to power centers in government. In that regard most of what happens in privately organized and if it works well, it is privately owned. That is power and slowly the center of power is moving to the elites - much like Russia did initially, and probably with the same back lash yet to come. My views are based on little personal contact, but much travel and looking. I think China has a far piece to go to become stable and a mature power in the world. ReplyChina: Holiday Thoughts on Misunderstanding Data [view article]
Of course not all young people in china are Fen Qing (not Feng Qing). But I think those Fen Qing are exactly those lower class youth. The main reason, in my opinion, is that those lower class guys have nothing to proud about, in other words, they are lack of confidence. Another reason is that they dont have enough information. They dont have the abillity to get information from the rest of the world and, they dont want to. They just want to enjoy their stupid video games (Video games, i think, is more popular among those youth from poorer area. Because they dont have it when they were kids.). So they extremely honor their nation. I dont think there is an connection between the elite colleges and the ultranationalism youth. I'm studying in a so-called 'elite colleges' in Beijing and here are thousands of Fen Qing (Guys here are standing to applause for 'Grandpa P.M.' and presenting their angry about japan). And when you look at those trash colleges nearby, there are also thousands of Fen Qing. Because in every school there always be people from all class. Even PKU students will benefit from the system, now they are outsiders. And I guess guys you met were surely against the system but possibly also against traditional enemies of Fen Qi such as Japan and Korea. I think the central government is far less harmless than those guys against it. At last, the government is running the country in Market economy system, but on the other side those guys who against it want a more 'fair' or even Mao style economy system. That is surely a nightmare.By the way, the modern sky fest is pretty cool and i gonna be there. but it disappointed me when i found there will be no foreign band. You sucker, Bjork! Reply
Investing in China's Falling Stock Market [view article]
Why do you say that the market is falling. Just take a look at China Energy Recovery (cgyv). This stock is not falling at all. www.youtube.com/watch?...Do you still think the same, eh? Reply
China: Holiday Thoughts on Misunderstanding Data [view article]
Outstanding, informative, and accurate article. Data, correct or otherwise, can always be interpreted and defined from various angles and positions. What matters most are the percieved realities, as these are what affects market vectors, regardless. Only with hindsight are we able to fully appreciate and reveal accurately data causality. However, what affects tomorrow are the movements now defined by perception, which do not have the luxury of such analysis. ReplyChina: Holiday Thoughts on Misunderstanding Data [view article]
The source of the angry ultranationalist youth is actually a reflection of the pain, suffering and discontent felt by the Chinese people towards the CCP. The CCP over the past 59 years has tried to deflect this agression against the establishment and reflect it towards foreign nations/people. This is of course a very common aspect of 'pseudo communism'. I say pseudo because I don't believe there are any modern day versions of 'native american type' communism and village community dynamics alive today. Communism source should be based on Love for all, fairness for all, support for all and justice for all. Not control of the weak/poor by the establishment..This agression has been deflected away from the establishment by erasing the line between the CCP and the Chinese culture. A lot of the Chinese believe that they are betraying their culture in speaking out against the CCP because in effect they have been taught that they are shunning their culture and inate origin. This is a very effective strategy because of the cultural feature of group psychology the Chinese have so deep inside their being. The Chinese see the red flag and believe it is the connecting symbol of their Culture. The CCP is synominous with this red flag. If you say anything against the red flag/CCP you say something against the Chinese Culture.
Anyone that knows the history of how the CCP got its deep influence in the mainland chinese thinking process understands the deliberate and well thought out strategies and actions that induced the line being erased between the CCP and the Chinese Culture.
The problem is the foreign governments/media don't understand this and flame the hatred by making comments on the Chinese people as a whole rather than the policies of the CCP. This even had an effect this summer during the protests of angering the oversees Chinese. The mis-communicated views punctured a very painful aspect in a lot of Chinese people and as result the outpouring of nationalism was very easy for the CCP to orchestrate. Of course most of the ultranationalist youth in the Olympic stadiums watching the olympics were hand picked by the CCP anyway. Also all the demonstrations were organised centrally by the CCP through the oversees networks.
I think Micheal the people you come in contact with are a 'special calibre' Free-thinking people who have decided they wish to accumulate knowledge. It is only natural that you attract people of this calibre because of your path in life. The earthquake in Sichuan/ Dairy Scandal/Olympic Games have certainly had a very strong effect on how the Chinese see the CCP, themselves and foreign nations/people. And things are heading in the right direction, but we have a very long way to go. And my fear is that we will never get there because of politics.
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China: Holiday Thoughts on Misunderstanding Data [view article]
Thanks for the personal perspective. Having spent most of my formative years in various other countries, I often found that we Americans think of foreigners in strict terms.. What I like to call the 'Freedom Fries' mentality. Interesting to hear that students in China have opinions outside the national portrayal... very much as students everywhere seem to. Hope springs eternal... jegan ReplyGlobal Stock Markets: Surviving the Most Turbulent Week Since 1987 [view article]
We put them in and they blow the bank to get back in; it is worse than you think , or as good as it gets; ---that never changes. Yay!!--sentiment long --cause that is the way I feel and I feel Allright-- WHEN MY BRAIN IS DISENGAGED. As long as it my sentiment shared I can time anything. ReplyGlobal Stock Markets: Surviving the Most Turbulent Week Since 1987 [view article]
sb-tiger, relax, don't get hypertension over this. The government has to come in to clean up the mess. No need to jump to conclusion. If nobody lends a hand, who do we depend on ? That's why this country is still number ONE on Earth. Just calm down. ReplyGlobal Stock Markets: Surviving the Most Turbulent Week Since 1987 [view article]
Bailout nation. Audacity of stupidity. This dynamic duo of Ben-Paulson have been wrong every step of the way. The bazooka misfired now they want a nuclear missile.The wall street fat cats must be protected - that is the mantra of the country.
Get out and stay out these markets manipulated by the Govt. Reply
Global Stock Markets: Surviving the Most Turbulent Week Since 1987 [view article]
It's only more debt. As if debt ever killed anyone. If all goes as planned, we can tap additional taxpayer dollars to recapitalize the banks, start a new housing boom, maybe even a bubble in the small caps (go russell 2000) and hire Greenspan to provide oversight for Frannie! ReplyGlobal Stock Markets: Surviving the Most Turbulent Week Since 1987 [view article]
That is government in Action, for the good of the country and the people. There's nothing wrong with that. If the politicians do that all the time, we will be in Great Shape. Replyo.com
Global Stock Markets: Surviving the Most Turbulent Week Since 1987 [view article]
Hurry hurry – Rush rush - Least we forget The Lessons of Iraq.When Bush-Cheney and the neo-cons – rush through the Iraq bill – senators and congress fell in line – hurry-hurry – rush-rush.
Can anybody think of a bill – Bush-Cheney didn’t rush through congress and the senate – With-out there dire need for action now?
So why would anybody think this bail-out - bill - would be any different?
Just like all there other PREZ powers push – They don’t want anybody reading the bill – let alone deciding if it’s even really needed.
But - be rest assured – More then likely – and odds in favor – WE still have a IDIOTIC senate and congress.
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Quite a Reversal - China Central Bank Cuts Interest Rates [view article]
Governments are not to be trusted, whether they are Chinese or Americans. Do you really believe that we have an economic expansion of 3.3% last quarter? Or do you believe that our actual cost of living went up 0.1% last month? Or do you believe the core CPI after stripping out energy and housing costs? I think there are naive suckers every where. Reply