Morgan Stanley China A Share Fund, Inc. (CAF)

All Comments on CAF

  • commenter
    fxtrader07
    Jul 21 12:27 PM
    The Case for Buying China Now [view article]
    'China's long-term fundamentals are vastly superior to the U.S., ...'

    hm maybe - or maybe not. things might be a bit more complicated here than they look like on the surface. Apart from the fact that China is a heavily regulated economy with virtually no legal guarantees where your investment in any individual company can be wiped out by a stroke of the govt's pen, it is a socially very complex society. very divergent - between han mainland and the prospering coastal areas. maintaining a balance between the two is crucial to china and comes at a tremendous cost - something a GDP-comparison or any economic aggregate is unlikely to reflect.

    Yes it may be a good time to buy - but the notion that a 54% drop represents 'value' is as as mistaken as can be. It#s a very common misperception by inexperienced traders/investors - and without wanting to insult, barely 5 years of investing experience makes you not more than a rookie. there are plenty of prtly hidden threats to that nice chinese growth story. and if i read that you allocate 25% of your portfolio to fxi - with another 25% when it drops further - i cannot but advise caution. as much as i like a concentrated portfolio, as much is this based on the premise that yopu must have a very very clear and thorough understanding of your investments. as for china - i think you barely have one. so investing 10% and another 10% after a drop might be more than sufficient. don't underestimate the huge risks involved! which brings me to my third observation: you are lengthy on opportunities and profts potential in your article - very short on risk. my suggestion is, try to find out as much about risks and what could go wrong as possible and write another article on that. it might not alter your position - but it will certainly strengthen your investment thesis - whatever that will look like afterwards     Reply
  • commenter
    John
    Pseudonym
    Jul 21 12:01 PM
    The Case for Buying China Now [view article]
    Looking at the FXI chart, I would not buy at this time.

    China will be a player in the world economy for the next century but so was the US in 1929.

    There are times to invest and times to wait. Now is the time to wait.

    The US and the UK will drag down the world economies and with it will come China. Afterwards, China will lead the way out and that's when I will move in.     Reply
  • commenter
    rhymes
    Jul 21 11:58 AM
    The Case for Buying China Now [view article]
    People hear about china's stock market crashes and create a mental block about China's stocks. Looking at the chart and forward, much of the crash already happened. This is actually a good price point to enter into China.

    The stampede of the 2007 is actually the worst time, yet ironically, everyone is screaming to buy china then.

    Now it's a very good deal, yet everyone is ignoring China.

    Go figure!

    I think infrastructure play in China is the way to go. There's a lot of build out to go.     Reply
  • commenter
    newyorkdude
    Jul 20 07:53 PM
    My Website
    On China and What the World Won’t See During the Olympics [view article]
    This business about 5000 year history is unimpressive. Indians boast about their 5000 year history too. Yet both countries have unspeakable poverty. And in neither country for their 5000 year histories did rulers care about anything but exploiting the people and keeping the wealth to themselves. If China and India hope to advance economically they have to rethink the value of their dismal pasts. Reply
  • commenter
    Dragon
    Master
    Jul 18 08:00 AM
    On China and What the World Won’t See During the Olympics [view article]
    <<How about Chinese systems of politic and economy? Well, they may have a better chance then Red Russian Empire, but the success is hardly assured.>>
    Idiot! You need to go back 3000-5000 years to understand the Chinese systems.
    <<communism>&... is western $hit brought into China and caused disasater for about 35+ years but both China and USSR were never truely communism countries. Switzerland, German and USA have some elements of that such social welfare, nationalized banking and F&F mortgage.
    Only last 30 years, Chine goes back its own root/way run the country and shows the world works. This is the reason China can eist 5000 years. When China ran current systems with open trading 800-2000 years ago. USA does not exists and European still live in the hole and wore animal skins.
    There is no need to prove Chinese own systems and culture based on 5000 history.     Reply
  • commenter
    huangthomas
    Jul 16 04:29 PM
    On China and What the World Won’t See During the Olympics [view article]
    I have always encouraged everyone to challenge the supremacy of the USA. It is always beneficial to us in the long run. USA is not always beyond criticism. But the Chinese hype of their acomplishment over the current world development is obviously highly inflated! Reply
  • commenter
    Paul
    Denlinger
    Jul 16 11:02 AM
    My Website
    On China and What the World Won’t See During the Olympics [view article]
    Thanks for talking about the very real challenges which China faces. Some Chinese officials have a saying: "If China reforms too fast, China will become chaotic. If it reforms too slow, it will die."
    The reforms have created huge wealth, but there are severe prices for this prosperity. Now they are becoming more apparent.     Reply
  • commenter
    huangthomas
    Jul 16 10:21 AM
    On China and What the World Won’t See During the Olympics [view article]
    Comparison of China and the United States is inherently difficult. They are two entirely different countries in terms of cultural, political, and economic systems. American systems have evolved over centuries of Western culture, but Chinese system has been put together and experimented with only for the last 30 years for so. Remember communism has been experimented for almost 100 years before it was a proven human disaster. How about Chinese systems of politic and economy? Well, they may have a better chance then Red Russian Empire, but the success is hardly assured.
    Chinese, with a few favorable statistics, are more anxious to do comparison with the United States in the Olympic year to show that they are an emerging "superpower"... which Russian has done before. Chinese did accomplish a lot through their reform and development policy, but it takes more, a lot more, to be a superpower. I wish them well, but it is too early to make any conclusion. I'll consider any of the favorable comparison with the United States aired by Chinese partisan as an Olympic year hype.     Reply
  • commenter
    lawbert
    Jul 14 03:10 PM
    China's Impending Financial Crisis [view article]
    The writer's economic knowledge is mostly on free economy. He probably does not know much about closed economy like China. Money cannot be flowing in and out freely like in US here, although it is easier in China than before. Even for people in Hong Kong who wants to buy in RMB, they need to open up several bank accounts and buy in bit by bit over months. I am interested to know how the money can evaporate in a Market-controlled economy like China. Reply
  • commenter
    GEOMAC
    Jul 14 02:27 PM
    China's Impending Financial Crisis [view article]
    DO ALL REALIZE HOW MUCH CASH CHINA HAS ? Reply
  • commenter
    king Lee
    Jul 14 12:54 PM
    China's Impending Financial Crisis [view article]
    there are contradictory analysis about the amount of hot money being parked in China's ,the range can be anything between 300 billion to 600 billion,what can trigger off a pull-out of hot money from China besides value of RMB,the other factor is the stock market ,which is at the lowest since late last year ,China authorities are very worried about the impact of a built-up of hot money within the financial system ,and the first six months of the year sees the acceleration of that scenario.taking full advantaged of a appreciating RMB ,and cash in the stock market which already show signs of policy intervention to instil confidence by liberalization of the tight liquidity regime.As the authority almost come to conclusion
    that the macro regulatory policy should now be shifted from the two preventions of clear signs of inflation and excessive growth TO prevention of inflation and protection of stagflation.
    On the above premise, the stock market shall see a clear rebound from the doldrum very soon ,and with that the continued appreciation of RMB as well as inflow of more hot money accelerate
    in the months to follow.

    To my observation something important would happen before or immediately post Beijing Olympic game ,watch out!Third party observer of China in Malaysia : alwinking@yahoo.co.uk     Reply
  • commenter
    Did U Think
    The Ponzi
    Scheme
    Would Last?
    Jul 14 03:01 AM
    China's Impending Financial Crisis [view article]
    I don't think china will last 2-3 years. The US and the other g7 countries are their best customers and are now entering a very weak economic time which will be longer and deeper than most people expect. China is leveraged to the hilt economically and will have incredible overcapacity once the US really slows. Business profits will tank and the mania chart in their stocks will fully express itself to the downside. Reply
  • commenter
    Ames
    Tiedeman
    Jul 13 10:35 PM
    My Website
    China's Impending Financial Crisis [view article]
    China is a train wreck waiting to happen. It is just a matter of time. Chatter suggests they have more than 1 Trillion in bad loans to deal with. Reply
  • commenter
    X-15
    Jul 13 10:12 PM
    China's Impending Financial Crisis [view article]
    Sooner or later China growth will slow-but with 1.2 billion folks working for a better existence and straight ahead government thinking, China has great future. To many huge cities with voracious appetite for materials for infrastucture, not to mention technology upgrades...bend maybe but will not break. The Chinese have an agenda sure but to devalue the currency -it ain't gonna happen. This ain't Argentina.
    JST, RJI, Watg     Reply
  • commenter
    davews
    Jul 13 05:16 PM
    My Website
    Good Time to Buy Chinese Currency: Follow the 'Hot Money' [view article]
    Arun N – Assuming growth remains robots, are you sure investors would head for the nearest exit?? It seems to me that higher interest rates would attract more USD capital. I certainly agree that things can change in an instant.
    rlirph – That’s a very interesting point, and one that amazes me. China can certainly use a more open / complex financial system. Just look at Chinese firms who wither produce or consume commodities. Can you image being a ‘smaller’ firm not being able to hedge against commodity inflation, or being able to lock in profits??
    pldragon - thanks for the comment.
     Reply
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