Thu, Feb. 26, 6:38 PM
- Credit Suisse says the recent rally in oil prices and in oilfield services stocks (NYSEARCA:OIH) is a classic dead cat bounce, and that as soon as U.S. storage gets full - and it is close - crude prices will fall, bringing expectations and stocks down with it.
- The firm says its sector outlook is increasingly negative as companies report increased pricing pressure, a record drop in the activity barometer of the rig count, and offshore rigs and projects confronting headwinds that could take a couple of years to fix.
- Relevant stocks: SLB, HAL, BHI, CAM, HLX, SPN, NOV, FET, DRQ, FTI, OIS
Mon, Feb. 2, 6:55 PM
- Jefferies downgrades nine oil services stocks (NYSEARCA:OIH), noting there is still “material downside” to consensus estimates from lower oil prices.
- Despite its medium-term negative view on oil, Jefferies adds that it expects oil prices to start to recover in 2015 with prices rising to levels that support oil services in 2016; yet the firm does not expect the sector to recover quickly, and sees deepwater drilling particularly sluggish on high costs and “flat-to-modestly-lower activity.”
- Downgraded to Underperform: FTI, NBR, PTEN, RIG.
- Downgraded to Hold: CAM, PES, PDS, SLCA, FMSA.
Fri, Jan. 30, 12:13 PM
- Cameron International (CAM +2.2%) is higher despite a downgrade from RBC to Sector Perform from Outperform, which includes a price target cut to $50 from $60.
- RBC believes CAM faces headwinds across all of its business segments in 2015, including immediate pressure in its short cycle businesses and declining backlogs in its longer cycle businesses, adding that Street estimates are too high.
- CAM CEO Jack Moore reassured investors yesterday that he expects the company will be able to sell more products to its key customers.
Thu, Jan. 29, 3:58 PM
- Cameron International (CAM -0.1%) CEO Jack Moore tried to reassure investors that while oil producers are asking for price concessions, the company expects it will be able to sell more products to its key customers.
- Rather than "roll over and concede pricing,” CAM plans to push its more efficient surface units and other technology as falling oil prices forces oil companies to cut spending, the CEO Jack Moore said in today's earnings conference call.
- Moore expects CAM will be able to "offset the discounts through more efficiencies internally. But we will not be able to escape it totally.”
- CAM beat Q4 earnings expectations on higher sales from its drilling and surface businesses, but demand is softening for oil equipment as oil prices fall and new orders declined Y/Y to $2B from $3.1B; its year-end 2014 $9.5B backlog was down from $11.1B the previous year.
Thu, Jan. 29, 7:35 AM
Wed, Jan. 28, 5:30 PM
- ABT, AIT, ALLY, ALV, ALXN, APD, BABA, BAX, BC, BEAV, BMS, BX, CAH, CAM, CELG, CHKP, CL, CLFD, CMS, COH, COP, CRR, CSH, DGX, DHX, DOW, DST, EMC, EPD, F, GLOP, HAE, HAR, HGG, HOG, HP, HSY, HUB.B, ITG, IVZ, JBLU, KELYA, KEM, KMT, LLL, LRN, LSTR, MD, MJN, MMYT, MTH, NDAQ, NOC, NOK, NYCB, OSTK, OXY, PENN, PHM, POT, PSX, PSXP, RCI, RCL, RDS.A, RGLD, RGS, RTN, RYL, SHW, SILC, SWK, SXC, TCB, TDY, TKR, TMO, TWC, UBSI, VIAB, VLO, VLY, VRTS, WCC, WILN, WRLD, XEL, ZMH
Fri, Jan. 9, 7:55 AM
- Oil and gas companies could cut E&P spending in North America by 30% or more this year if U.S. crude oil prices continue to trade at $50-$60/bbl, Barclays estimates on the basis of a survey of 225 oil and gas companies.
- The firm expects U.S. onshore rig count to fall by 500 rigs over the year to ~1,250 rigs by the end of 2015.
- Barclays says this is only the seventh time in the 30-year history of its survey that global spending is estimated to fall, adding that spending rose by more than 10% the following year after almost every decline.
- In the oilfield services group (NYSEARCA:OIH), the firm initiates Halliburton (NYSE:HAL), Baker Hughes (NYSE:BHI), National Oilwell Varco (NYSE:NOV) and FMC Tech (NYSE:FTI) at Overweight, and Forum Energy Tech (NYSE:FET) and Dril-Quip (NYSE:DRQ) at Underweight; Schlumberger (NYSE:SLB), Cameron (NYSE:CAM), Weatherford (NYSE:WFT) and Superior Energy (NYSE:SPN) are started at Equal Weight.
- ETFs: XLE, ERX, VDE, XOP, ERY, DIG, DUG, IYE, XES, IEO, IEZ, PXE, FENY, PXJ, RYE, FXN, DDG
Wed, Jan. 7, 2:55 PM
- Credit Suisse's James Wicklund suggests avoiding oilfield services stocks, as the firm cuts its earnings estimates on Schlumberger (SLB -0.7%), Weatherford (WFT -0.7%) and Cameron International (CAM +0.9%) by 20% or more.
- The analyst expects the rig count to decline every week for the next three months and fall by another 400-plus rigs; it also believes downside earnings revisions have just started, and the conference calls will be ugly, meaning sector sentiment is bound to get worse.
- "While prices typically bottom in Q1, the duration and magnitude of the slowdown required to balance the markets will require at least a full year, so prices could skip along that bottom for an extended period," Wicklund writes.
Tue, Jan. 6, 10:37 AM
- Citigroup analyst Scott Gruber says now could be time for longer-term investors to bulk up on oil services stocks (NYSEARCA:OIH), taking the contrarian view that falling capital spending forecasts and looming bankruptcies by some E&P companies could portend that the industry’s shakeout is closer at hand.
- Meanwhile, Gruber says oil services stocks tend to stop falling as oil reaches "unsustainably low” levels, and investors appear to be through much of their selling since valuations have fallen so low.
- Oil services companies generally have been hit twice as hard as integrated oil majors during the past three months; related tickers include SLB, HAL, NOV, BHI, CAM, ESV, FTI, HP, TS, OII.
Fri, Jan. 2, 9:07 AM| Comment!
Dec. 1, 2014, 3:19 PM
- A bit late, Guggenheim analyst Darren Gacicia downgrades Seadrill (SDRL -5.5%), Transocean (RIG -4.5%) and Diamond Offshore (DO +3.3%) to Neutral from Buy, finally admitting that downward pressure on oil prices and a potential for capital markets to become shy to fund newbuild deliveries has undercut the tenets of his previous bull thesis.
- SDRL and RIG remain the most levered to deteriorating offshore market conditions, he says, believing SDRL shares may also suffer from an ownership transition from income to value investors and RIG perhaps sharing the same fate, with a 2015 dividend cut likely amid the potential for further asset writedowns.
- At DO, Gacicia sees risk of a dividend cut, rig retirements and deteriorating offshore market fundamentals as negative near-term catalysts; the firm also downgrades Seventy Seven Energy (SSE -16.2%), Cameron (CAM -2.8%), Frank's International (FI -0.1%) and FMC Tech (FTI -0.1%).
- In the space, the analyst prefers drillers with high-quality assets, solid contract coverage and a lack of funding needs, such as Noble Corp. (NE -0.2%) - which also has a buyback catalyst - Atwood Oceanics (ATW -0.1%) and Pacific Drilling (PACD -3.7%).
Nov. 14, 2014, 12:48 PM
- Oil services companies are mostly higher as Halliburton (HAL +1.7%) is indeed in talks to buy Baker Hughes (BHI +0.5%), a deal that would provide a jolt to oilfield services companies contending with falling oil prices: SLB +0.4%, OIS +1.2%, SPN +2.3%, CAM +0.2%, FTI -0.3%, NOV -0.6%.
- Sterne Agee analyst Stephen Gengaro calls a potential HAL-BHI combo a “HAL of a Frac-ing Deal," seeing several positives for HAL including strengthening its relatively weak position in artificial lift and production chemicals which are critical to enhancing HAL’s mature field strategy, enabling it to leverage its unparalleled U.S. pressure pumping logistics chain to enhance the efficiency of BHI’s operations, and providing the opportunity for significant cost savings which likely would total $600M-$750M or more.
- While antitrust concerns could force some divestitures, Gengaro does not believe it would prevent a deal from happening.
- Other potentially attractive M&A targets among oil services companies could include Dril-Quip (DRQ +0.7%), Frank’s International (FI +2.6%) and Oceaneering (OII -0.2%), Simmons & Co. says.
Oct. 23, 2014, 7:53 AM
Oct. 22, 2014, 5:30 PM
- AAL, AB, ACAT, AEP, ALK, ALV, ALXN, ARG, ASPS, AVT, BBW, BC, BCC, BHE, BKU, BMS, CAB, CAM, CAT, CCE, CELG, CFX, CHKP, CLI, CMCSA, CMS, CRI, CRS, CS, CSH, CVE, CWEI, DAN, DGX, DLX, DNKN, DO, DPS, EQM, EQT, FAF, GM, GMT, GPI, GRUB, HERO, HUB.B, IMAX, IVC, JAH, JAKK, JBLU, JNS, KKR, LAZ, LLY, LO, LSTR, LTM, LUV, MDP, MHO, MINI, MJN, MMM, MTRN, NLSN, NOK, NUE, NWE, ORI, OSIS, OSTK, OXY, PCP, PENN, PHM, PLD, POT, PRLB, PTEN, QSII, RCI, RCL, RS, RTN, RYL, SIAL, SILC, SJR, SLAB, SONS, SQNS, STC, TDY, TROW, UA, UAL, UFS, UNP, USG, UTEK, WCC, WSO, YNDX, ZMH
Oct. 17, 2014, 10:17 AM
- Oil services (OIH +4%) stocks rip higher at the open following a strong earnings report from Schlumberger (SLB +7.4%) and as oil prices stabilize.
- Tumbling crude prices haven’t shaken the faith of at least two of the top providers of drilling and production services: SLB CEO Paal Kibsgaard describes the drop as “fear of short-term oversupply” and says the company is not changing a long-term view that its earnings will almost double from last year’s level by 2017, while Baker Hughes (BHI +4.7%) CEO Martin Craighead says his company's customers don't believe crude prices will stay low.
- HAL +5.5%, SPN +5.2%, WFT +5.1%, CAM +2.1%, NOV +2%, FTI +1.8%, DRQ +1.4%.
Oct. 16, 2014, 7:55 AM
- Baker Hughes (NYSE:BHI) -10.8% premarket after Q3 earnings rose 10% Y/Y but missed estimates, as political tensions in Libya and Iraq plus a sharp fall in drilling activity in the Gulf of Mexico weighed on margins.
- Q3 pre-tax profit margins in its operations in Europe, Africa and the Russia Caspian region fell to 8% from 17% in the year-ago quarter.
- Revenue of the North American segment, BHI's largest geographic business by revenue, rose 11% to $3.2B, and climbed 6% in the Middle East and Asia Pacific region, 8% in the Europe, Africa and Russia Caspian segment, and 3% in Latin America.
- Oil services stocks (NYSEARCA:OIH) to watch: HAL, SLB. SPN, NOV, CAM, FTI, DRQ.
CAM vs. ETF Alternatives
Cameron International Corp is a provider of flow equipment products, systems and services to worldwide oil, gas and process industries. It also works with drilling contractors, oil & gas producers, pipeline operators and refiners.
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