Fri, Apr. 17, 4:57 PM
- Cameron International (NYSE:CAM) stands to benefit in the short run from well upgrades to meet new safety regulations as well as over the longer term from an expected oil price rebound, according to a Barron's analysis.
- The drilling industry estimates the new rules could cost $880M over a decade, and CAM is seen as a key beneficiary of the spending, adding to an aftermarket business that already brings in a quarter of the company's revenue and has grown at a compounded rate of 15%/year since 2010; aftermarket profit margins are more than double the company-wide average.
- A rising aftermarket business is for now being eclipsed by a near-term plunge in drilling revenue; in 2009, the last time drilling activity fell so sharply, investors paid 17x depressed earnings for CAM, similar to the current valuation, and the stock price then went on to more than double over five years as drilling activity recovered.
Mon, Apr. 13, 11:24 AM
- "No one (including us) has a really good handle on energy industry earnings estimates over the next few years," says J. Marshall Adkins and team at Raymond James, downgrading Cameron International (CAM -1%), Nabors Industries (NBR -0.3%), Schlumberger (SLB -0.8%), FMC Technologies (FTI -1.5%), and Basic Energy Services (BAS -6.6%).
- Nevertheless, Adkins gives it his best shot and his numbers are well below the Street for 2015 and 2016. Then there's valuations, and the recent surge in prices has left them less than compelling.
- Noted is substantial pricing pressur and overcapacity in many business lines, a more prolonged downturn internationally, and offshore activity not expected to see even a moderate uptick for several years.
- Source: Barron's
- Previously: Schlumberger slips as Raymond James heads to the sidelines (April 13)
- Previously: Raymond James throws in the towel on oil services (April 13)
Mon, Apr. 13, 8:48 AM
- Alongside its downgrade of Schlumberger, Raymond James cuts Basic Energy (NYSE:BAS), FMC Technologies (NYSE:FTI), and Cameron (NYSE:CAM) to Market Perform from Outperform.
- Nabors Industries (NYSE:NBR) is lowered to Outperform from Strong Buy.
- The OIH is up marginally YTD, but off more than 35% from last summer's high.
- Previously: Schlimberger slips as Raymond James heads to the sidelines (April 13)
Thu, Feb. 26, 6:38 PM
- Credit Suisse says the recent rally in oil prices and in oilfield services stocks (NYSEARCA:OIH) is a classic dead cat bounce, and that as soon as U.S. storage gets full - and it is close - crude prices will fall, bringing expectations and stocks down with it.
- The firm says its sector outlook is increasingly negative as companies report increased pricing pressure, a record drop in the activity barometer of the rig count, and offshore rigs and projects confronting headwinds that could take a couple of years to fix.
- Relevant stocks: SLB, HAL, BHI, CAM, HLX, SPN, NOV, FET, DRQ, FTI, OIS
Mon, Feb. 2, 6:55 PM
- Jefferies downgrades nine oil services stocks (NYSEARCA:OIH), noting there is still “material downside” to consensus estimates from lower oil prices.
- Despite its medium-term negative view on oil, Jefferies adds that it expects oil prices to start to recover in 2015 with prices rising to levels that support oil services in 2016; yet the firm does not expect the sector to recover quickly, and sees deepwater drilling particularly sluggish on high costs and “flat-to-modestly-lower activity.”
- Downgraded to Underperform: FTI, NBR, PTEN, RIG.
- Downgraded to Hold: CAM, PES, PDS, SLCA, FMSA.
Fri, Jan. 30, 12:13 PM
- Cameron International (CAM +2.2%) is higher despite a downgrade from RBC to Sector Perform from Outperform, which includes a price target cut to $50 from $60.
- RBC believes CAM faces headwinds across all of its business segments in 2015, including immediate pressure in its short cycle businesses and declining backlogs in its longer cycle businesses, adding that Street estimates are too high.
- CAM CEO Jack Moore reassured investors yesterday that he expects the company will be able to sell more products to its key customers.
Thu, Jan. 29, 3:58 PM
- Cameron International (CAM -0.1%) CEO Jack Moore tried to reassure investors that while oil producers are asking for price concessions, the company expects it will be able to sell more products to its key customers.
- Rather than "roll over and concede pricing,” CAM plans to push its more efficient surface units and other technology as falling oil prices forces oil companies to cut spending, the CEO Jack Moore said in today's earnings conference call.
- Moore expects CAM will be able to "offset the discounts through more efficiencies internally. But we will not be able to escape it totally.”
- CAM beat Q4 earnings expectations on higher sales from its drilling and surface businesses, but demand is softening for oil equipment as oil prices fall and new orders declined Y/Y to $2B from $3.1B; its year-end 2014 $9.5B backlog was down from $11.1B the previous year.
Thu, Jan. 29, 7:35 AM
Wed, Jan. 28, 5:30 PM
- ABT, AIT, ALLY, ALV, ALXN, APD, BABA, BAX, BC, BEAV, BMS, BX, CAH, CAM, CELG, CHKP, CL, CLFD, CMS, COH, COP, CRR, CSH, DGX, DHX, DOW, DST, EMC, EPD, F, GLOP, HAE, HAR, HGG, HOG, HP, HSY, HUB.B, ITG, IVZ, JBLU, KELYA, KEM, KMT, LLL, LRN, LSTR, MD, MJN, MMYT, MTH, NDAQ, NOC, NOK, NYCB, OSTK, OXY, PENN, PHM, POT, PSX, PSXP, RCI, RCL, RDS.A, RGLD, RGS, RTN, RYL, SHW, SILC, SWK, SXC, TCB, TDY, TKR, TMO, TWC, UBSI, VIAB, VLO, VLY, VRTS, WCC, WILN, WRLD, XEL, ZMH
Fri, Jan. 9, 7:55 AM
- Oil and gas companies could cut E&P spending in North America by 30% or more this year if U.S. crude oil prices continue to trade at $50-$60/bbl, Barclays estimates on the basis of a survey of 225 oil and gas companies.
- The firm expects U.S. onshore rig count to fall by 500 rigs over the year to ~1,250 rigs by the end of 2015.
- Barclays says this is only the seventh time in the 30-year history of its survey that global spending is estimated to fall, adding that spending rose by more than 10% the following year after almost every decline.
- In the oilfield services group (NYSEARCA:OIH), the firm initiates Halliburton (NYSE:HAL), Baker Hughes (NYSE:BHI), National Oilwell Varco (NYSE:NOV) and FMC Tech (NYSE:FTI) at Overweight, and Forum Energy Tech (NYSE:FET) and Dril-Quip (NYSE:DRQ) at Underweight; Schlumberger (NYSE:SLB), Cameron (NYSE:CAM), Weatherford (NYSE:WFT) and Superior Energy (NYSE:SPN) are started at Equal Weight.
- ETFs: XLE, ERX, VDE, XOP, ERY, DIG, DUG, IYE, XES, IEO, IEZ, PXE, FENY, PXJ, RYE, FXN, DDG
Wed, Jan. 7, 2:55 PM
- Credit Suisse's James Wicklund suggests avoiding oilfield services stocks, as the firm cuts its earnings estimates on Schlumberger (SLB -0.7%), Weatherford (WFT -0.7%) and Cameron International (CAM +0.9%) by 20% or more.
- The analyst expects the rig count to decline every week for the next three months and fall by another 400-plus rigs; it also believes downside earnings revisions have just started, and the conference calls will be ugly, meaning sector sentiment is bound to get worse.
- "While prices typically bottom in Q1, the duration and magnitude of the slowdown required to balance the markets will require at least a full year, so prices could skip along that bottom for an extended period," Wicklund writes.
Tue, Jan. 6, 10:37 AM
- Citigroup analyst Scott Gruber says now could be time for longer-term investors to bulk up on oil services stocks (NYSEARCA:OIH), taking the contrarian view that falling capital spending forecasts and looming bankruptcies by some E&P companies could portend that the industry’s shakeout is closer at hand.
- Meanwhile, Gruber says oil services stocks tend to stop falling as oil reaches "unsustainably low” levels, and investors appear to be through much of their selling since valuations have fallen so low.
- Oil services companies generally have been hit twice as hard as integrated oil majors during the past three months; related tickers include SLB, HAL, NOV, BHI, CAM, ESV, FTI, HP, TS, OII.
Fri, Jan. 2, 9:07 AM| Comment!
Dec. 1, 2014, 3:19 PM
- A bit late, Guggenheim analyst Darren Gacicia downgrades Seadrill (SDRL -5.5%), Transocean (RIG -4.5%) and Diamond Offshore (DO +3.3%) to Neutral from Buy, finally admitting that downward pressure on oil prices and a potential for capital markets to become shy to fund newbuild deliveries has undercut the tenets of his previous bull thesis.
- SDRL and RIG remain the most levered to deteriorating offshore market conditions, he says, believing SDRL shares may also suffer from an ownership transition from income to value investors and RIG perhaps sharing the same fate, with a 2015 dividend cut likely amid the potential for further asset writedowns.
- At DO, Gacicia sees risk of a dividend cut, rig retirements and deteriorating offshore market fundamentals as negative near-term catalysts; the firm also downgrades Seventy Seven Energy (SSE -16.2%), Cameron (CAM -2.8%), Frank's International (FI -0.1%) and FMC Tech (FTI -0.1%).
- In the space, the analyst prefers drillers with high-quality assets, solid contract coverage and a lack of funding needs, such as Noble Corp. (NE -0.2%) - which also has a buyback catalyst - Atwood Oceanics (ATW -0.1%) and Pacific Drilling (PACD -3.7%).
Nov. 14, 2014, 12:48 PM
- Oil services companies are mostly higher as Halliburton (HAL +1.7%) is indeed in talks to buy Baker Hughes (BHI +0.5%), a deal that would provide a jolt to oilfield services companies contending with falling oil prices: SLB +0.4%, OIS +1.2%, SPN +2.3%, CAM +0.2%, FTI -0.3%, NOV -0.6%.
- Sterne Agee analyst Stephen Gengaro calls a potential HAL-BHI combo a “HAL of a Frac-ing Deal," seeing several positives for HAL including strengthening its relatively weak position in artificial lift and production chemicals which are critical to enhancing HAL’s mature field strategy, enabling it to leverage its unparalleled U.S. pressure pumping logistics chain to enhance the efficiency of BHI’s operations, and providing the opportunity for significant cost savings which likely would total $600M-$750M or more.
- While antitrust concerns could force some divestitures, Gengaro does not believe it would prevent a deal from happening.
- Other potentially attractive M&A targets among oil services companies could include Dril-Quip (DRQ +0.7%), Frank’s International (FI +2.6%) and Oceaneering (OII -0.2%), Simmons & Co. says.
Oct. 23, 2014, 7:53 AM
CAM vs. ETF Alternatives
Cameron International Corp is a provider of flow equipment products, systems and services to worldwide oil, gas and process industries. It also works with drilling contractors, oil & gas producers, pipeline operators and refiners.
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