Weather is a key currently in such markets as sugar, corn, orange juice, wheat and natural gas. We have seen sugar prices and the ETF (CANE) fall to new lows, due in part to the big Brazilian sugar crop and the fact I continue to see ideal harvest weather in Brazil. To get the sugar market out of the doldrums, we would have to see sharply higher corn prices, which would spur greater alternatives for ethanol (sugar) or see major summer crop issues in India, Brazil, Russia and/or Europe. Currently, the odds of a repeat below normal Indian Monsoon is low and the warmer weather coming to Europe after a severe cold winter, will probably be beneficial for sugar beet planting in coming weeks.

While U.S. corn planting is behind the 5 year average, the "psychology" of what I have been preaching for 6 months -- the U.S. drought

Energy: Crude oil is barely positive, but $2.60 off its lows. It is too early to call an interim low, but buyers are testing the waters. I've yet to purchase options or gain bullish exposure via futures, but selling put spreads under the market is on my radar. Lower trade was rejected in RBOB today, with prices higher by .50% as of this post. The support level from November may hold once again. $2.91 is the upside resistance in June futures. Heating oil is off its lows, but still in the red. Those long heating oil out months should sell out of the money calls 1:1. Long RBOB/short heating oil is the trade. Natural gas traded under the 8 day MA, but held on a closing basis. I feel we are close enough to the highs that we can nibble on bearish trade. For every

Energy: Crude oil is lower by 4% as of this post, retracing to levels not seen since last October/November. If we hold here, I will be shopping bullish trade for clients. If $87 gives way in June contracts, we could see $82.50/83.50. RBOB is lower for the fourth consecutive session, trading to a fresh 13' low. Support is seen at $2.69-2.71. The only exposure I have is long RBOB/short heating oil 1:1. As for heating oil, prices are lower by 15 cents in the last four sessions. Prices are oversold, but a bottom is yet to be determined. Stiff support is not for another dime. The general rule is for every $1 advance/decline in Crude RBOB and heating oil move 3-4 cents… trade accordingly. A bearish engulfing candle puts natural gas today lower by 2.56% as of this post. Assuming an interim top, a 38.2%

Energy: For the last three days, Crude oil has been range bound between the 61.8% Fib level and 38.2% level. Play the breakout, and I'm thinking to the upside, under the impression a trade above $95/barrel in May should lead to $97. The 8 day MA capped upside in RBOB as prices failed today, falling to 3 ½ month lows. Solid support is not seen for 8-10 cents. Heating oil broke support, dragging prices to 8 month lows. The only viable trade I see in products currently is long RBOB/short heating oil 1:1. Support at the 8 day MA has held the last three sessions, with natural gas probing fresh highs. I don't agree, but higher ground looks likely. I will not take the trade with clients.

Stock Indices: The train continues to advance, but when will it derail? Lower IR and uncertainty in

Energy: For the last two sessions crude oil has put in higher highs and higher lows. On the highs prices probed the 18 day MA. I am not opposed to lightly probing bullish plays ... the suggested strategy is long futures while selling out of the money calls 1:1 in July. RBOB is almost 10 cents off its lows for last week and could get legs from here as I do not see significant resistance for 7-10 cents overhead. There is plenty of risk trading energies but weighing risk/reward I see heating oil as the most attractive play currently. I like bullish exposure thinking we see 10-15 cents appreciation from current trade. Natural gas was lower but held at the 8 day MA off by 2.6% the last two sessions. Lower trade is anticipated but I have no current client exposure ... $3.70 is

Energy: Crude oil gained for the first time in four sessions, closing just above the 61.8% Fib level. All sales under $92.70 in May futures have been rejected the last three sessions. I have yet to issue buy recommendations but on a close above $94 on this contract, I would be willing to play from the long side. A higher high and higher low in RBOB today, gaining for the first time in seven sessions. Aggressive traders could wade into bullish trade with an objective at $3.00. Heating oil is finding support around the same level that prices bounced off last December, just above $2.90. This is my pick for energy traders searching for bullish exposure. Natural gas gave up 1% as higher trade was rejected. For an interim top to be in place, I want to see a settlement under the 18 day MA,

As we terminate winter and head through spring, there have been some major moves in the commodity sector. Silver fell to an 8 month low this week -- ishares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) and gold prices are challenging key support levels. Given the stronger dollar, market action, etc., I would be very surprised if over the next year, we will see the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) come anywhere close to 160 again. For this to happen, gold prices would have to soar back above $1650; something that I think is doubtful barring any major global calamity. North Korea you say? Hopefully not. This is the one big event (N. Korea) that would keep the crude oil from falling. A stronger dollar, the highest level of crude stocks since 1931 and hedge fund liquidation have resulted in a sharp 7% drop in prices this week of the Crude

By Edward Faubert

Coffee prices as measured by the ICE futures contract (KC) finished the first quarter at $1.3715 a pound, down 15 cents, or 10%, on the quarter. The market has been in a downtrend for almost two years since a peak of over $3.00 a pound. The harvests in Central America are now mostly complete. Producers from Central America, and notably from Brazil, have been reluctant to follow the market down. As a result, cash market premiums have firmed and new export sales have slowed during the past two months.

However, this backlog of selling is now likely to dampen any rally in the short term. Traders are now beginning to focus on Brazil's 2013 harvest, which begins in May in the Southern Hemisphere. Brazil is by far the world's largest coffee producer, producing roughly one-third of total world production, and many traders are expecting a near-record crop

Energy: Crude oil gave up just under $3/barrel to close a hair above the 18 day MA. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement puts May futures near $93. Bearish trade is the play, looking for a further depreciation ahead. RBOB lost more than 4% to close under the 100 day MA at 2 ½ month lows. I do not see solid support for another 10-15 cents… tread lightly. Heating oil gave up the previous week of gains today on the 2.77% swoon. Expect the recent lows to be challenged. The HO/RBOB spread continues to work, but trail stops is it could snap back. Natural gas is down 3 out of the last 4 days, probing the 18 day MA today… a level that has supported since mid-February. A 50% Fib retracement puts May under $3.70.

Stock Indices: The S&P closed under the 9 day

Energy: After five positive sessions, crude oil finished in the red today, but it was not a one way trade, as the trading range was nearly $2. I started advising clients today to work into bearish trade, thinking we see prices $3-5 lower in the coming weeks. The heating oil/RBOB spread mentioned in previous weeks worked like a charm today as May heating oil is only at a 2 cent discount to RBOB after being 10 cents wide just last week. Do not rule out heating oil trading at a premium very soon. The 8 day MA held in natural gas today with prices fighting to close in the green. Bearish probes are okay in my eyes, as long as we do make fresh highs… I'm searching for a 25-35 cent correction.

Stock Indices: The S&P and Dow are exhibiting signs of exhaustion,

Energy: Crude oil did close 1% higher on the day but pared losses, closing $1 off its highs. The most significant development in my eyes was a trade above the 100 day MA for the first time in 5 weeks. I have no exposure with clients, but forced into the market, I favor bullish exposure with tight stops. Heating oil and RBOB continue to chop sideways, and I have no direction plays on outrights here, either. If May RBOB trades at a greater than 10 cent premium to heat, I'd be willing to re-establish those spreads… see previous posts. Natural gas gave up 1.6% today, closing in the red for the fourth consecutive session. The key development here is a settlement under the 8 day MA . Bears' plays may finally get some favorable movement. My objective in May is $3.60.

Stock Indices: The

Energy: Crude oil got back nearly half of yesterday's losses, higher by just better than 1% as of this post. Prices are back above the 8 day MA which should continue to serve as a pivot point. At this juncture I am neutral on crude oil as I think prices could go $3 in either direction. RBOB traded higher by nearly 2% but stopped short of re-taking its 50 day MA. As long as futures are under that level I think there could be more downside. It would not surprise me to see a trade under $3 in the May contact. An inside day in heating oil as prices were higher by 0.80%. Prices have yet to trade back above the 8 day MA, about 2 cents above today's highs. The most viable trade idea I have in this complex is long heating oil/short RBOB expecting that

After a year of lower prices, sugar exchange traded funds could finally see some support as the U.S. government considers taking a large chunk of sugar off the market.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture is thinking about purchasing 400,000 tons of sugar to support defaulting U.S. sugar processors, reports Alexandra Wexler for the Wall Street Journal. A final decision will be made as early as April 1.

The move would bolster profits for companies that turn sugar beets and sugar cane into granulated sweetener, but this would also translate to higher retail food prices.

"Clearly, the USDA has made up its mind that Big Sugar is going to trump the American consumer," Pierson Bob Clair, president and chief executive at Brown & Haley, said in the article.

Barbara Fecso, an economist at the USDA, expects that the USDA could go ahead with the new buying program unless domestic prices

Natural Gas prices have pretty much reached our objective advertised 3-5 weeks ago, following several recently friendly EIA numbers and some of the coldest late February and March weather in years. The ETF (UNG) has now rallied about 25% the last 3 weeks and I feel comfortable recommending taking some profits here. However, the weather pattern at the very least the next 2 weeks, will probably keep natural gas prices from falling very far. How much of the present cold and the forecast is already built into prices is hard to say. However, coal switching this late in the season, is not nearly as prevalent as it often is during the heart of winter.

Incredible stratospheric warming, which began in late January, took about 3-5 weeks to work its way down to the surface over the Arctic and Greenland. In addition, the MJO pulse recently moved into

Energy: April Crude oil has finished higher the last 3 sessions and 4 out of the last 5 trading days. With prices settling above its 8 day MA the last 2 days I think we are poised to move higher short term. I've advised clients to start scaling back into bullish trade; long futures and selling out of the money calls 1:1. My initial objective is a trade north of $94/barrel. Higher trade was rejected in RBOB, with prices closing 11.5 cents off their highs. I have no outright bearish trades on with clients but we are short (1) RBOB vs. long (1) heating oil with some clients. $3.10 will need to be penetrated to see more selling emerge in my opinion…that level is the current 50 day MA in April futures. Heating oil prices remained contained, as the 8 day MA has capped upside the

Energy: Crude oil gave up 1% to close under its 100 day MA and the lowest close for April futures in 2013. I don't see much more downside though we could track lower on a risk off basis if securities get hit hard in my opinion. Prices are lower by $6/barrel in the last 3 weeks. I would be surprised to see any more than maybe a $2-l further decline. RBOB had over a 7 cent trading range on the session ending just under $3.10 in April. A 50% retracement puts this contract at $3.06 while a 61.8% retracement puts prices under $3. Heating oil is under its 38.2% Fib level having fell 25 cents in the last 3 weeks. While I have no outright plays in heating oil or RBOB I like playing the relationship ... see chart of the day. The 50 day

Energy: Looking at today's action in crude oil, we challenged the 50 and 100 day MAs at their H/L, respectively. We could work lower with outside market influence, but I have no client exposure. In April futures, support is seen just above $91/barrel under the 100 day MA at $92.15. RBOB closed lower better than 5 cents off its highs, but did maintain the 20 day MA. A trade under $3.24 in April should lead to further liquidation. Over a 7 cent trading range on the day in heating oil, so be careful. On its lows, we were very close to challenging a trend line that has held since early December. A trade under that level would likely trigger a trade under $3… stay tuned. Natural gas gapped higher on the open, surging 3.6% and closing near 3 week highs. Do not rule out a

Energy: Crude oil lost nearly 2% today, trading under $95 in April for the first time in 30 days. The bears may be taking control of the steering wheel, and on a trade under the 50 day MA -- identified at $94.20 -- expect selling to intensify. Heating oil gave up nearly 1%, trading under its 18 day MA for the first time in 1 month. I see further depreciation, with an objective of $3.05-3.09 in April. RBOB closed lower for the third session in a row, off by 1.71%, closing under its 8 day MA. This is a major development, and could signal an interim top. My target in April is $3.12, and possibly $3.05. Natural gas futures were unchanged, but did hold the 8 day MA. I'd like to see a probe above the 18 day MA, and maintain a trade above $3.50

Energy: April Crude oil held the same lows that acted as support on Friday, and managed to close .075% higher. Prices are just under their 8 and 18 day MAs, but unless trading the $2 range, I do not see a viable bullish or bearish strategy at this juncture. Stand aside until we get more direction. RBOB closed lower the last 2 sessions, albeit marginally. Is there an interim top in the making? It will take a trade under the 8 day MA; in April just above $3.27. If this turns into be an interim top, expect a trade back to $3.10/3.15. Heating oil has started to trade lower, closing in the red 4 out of the last 6 sessions. Today was the first settlement under the 8 day MA. I anticipate a trade to $3.06/3.11 in April this week or next. Natural gas closed

Energy: Crude oil failed at $98, but held above its 8 and 18 day MAs. It will take a trade above or below the aforementioned pivot points to determine the direction of the next leg. My bias remains on a lower trade. A probe higher failed in RBOB with a close 5 cents off the highs, just above the 8 day MA. That level will need to be breached to see prices trade south… as we speak, an interim top may be in the making. A lower high and lower low in heating oil, with futures closing lower by 0.54%. On a break lower, expect March to find its way back near $3.12. I am getting mixed signals in natural gas, so I am backing off fresh entries. A close back above the 8 day MA would get me interested in probing bullish plays. Some