Q4 2009 Earnings Call

October 29, 2009 02:00 PM ET

At the end of each trading week, Hillbent scans for the equity market for potential anomalies which exhibit extremely oversold and overbought conditions. Past observations have revealed that such candidates may experience reversal corrections to the upside or downside once the market reconfirms that their fundamentals remain solidly intact or relatively poor. From a contrarian perspective, these lists may also serve as a precursor to changes in institutional sentiment and underlying fundamentals.

(The purpose of this report is not to provide specific recommendations, but instead serve as a time-saving reference tool and starting point for investment ideas as the upcoming trading week unfolds. Of course, the results generated are not always perfect and users are strongly encouraged to perform their own due diligence on these names. Note that overbought and oversold conditions are based upon proprietary algorithms and quantitative models instead of conventional technical analysis indicators. As a supplement to this report, please refer to our Market Condition Summary to determine if market direction trends support a bullish or bearish investment bias over short-term, intermediate, and long-term timeframes.)

At the end of each trading week, our market direction radar scans the Hillbent 3000 universe (minimun average daily volume of 100k and largest 3000 market capitalization stocks) for the top 3 and bottom 3 sectors based upon aggregate performance and analyzes their winners and losers.

Using this weekly sector report on a regular basis allows Hillbent.com’s readers to efficiently monitor sector rotations and investor sentiment biases.

F1Q09 (Qtr end 12/31/08) Earnings Call

January 29, 2009 2:00 pm ET

SAC Capital, the $14 billion hedge fund firm run by Steven Cohen has been quite busy with SEC filings as of late. We recently covered SAC's portfolio holdings here. Since then, SAC has amended various 13G filings with the SEC, adjusting many of the positions in its portfolio. All of the following 13G filings were made due to SAC's trading activity on December 31, 2008 or January 1, 2009. In no particular order, here they are:

1. United Therapeutics (UTHR): SAC now shows that it has less than a 0.01% stake in UTHR. Back on September 30, 2008, it had owned 209,562 shares of UTHR. Therefore, effectively, it has sold off almost its entire stake.
2. OM Group (OMG): SAC now has a 0% stake in OMG and holds zero shares.
3. Savient Pharmaceuticals (SVNT): SAC has completely sold out of its SVNT position and now owns zero shares according to its 13G. It previously owned 50,675 shares.
4. True Religion Apparel (TRLG): SAC completely sold out of its TRLG position and as of its latest 13G, shows that it holds zero shares. It previously held 278,695 shares.
5. Zale Corporation (ZLC): SAC now holds zero shares of ZLC. It previously held 76,049 shares.
6. Tween Brands (TWB): SAC sold out of its entire position in TWB.
7. WCI Communities (WCI): It no longer holds any shares of WCIMQ.
8. Pilgrim's Pride (PPC): SAC sold all of its PGPDQ shares.
9. Cabot Corporation (CBT): It no longer owns any CBT.
10. Albemarle (ALB): SAC now holds a 0.3% stake in ALB (300,000 shares). It previously owned 200,000 shares.
11. Inspire Pharmaceuticals (ISPH): It no longer owns any ISPH.
12. Incyte (INCY): SAC has now disclosed that it has a 0.4% stake in INCY, thereby drastically reducing its holdings. It previously held in excess of two million shares.
13. Indevus Pharmaceuticals (IDEV): It completely sold out of its IDEV position.
14. Keryx Biopharmaceuticals (KERX): SAC no longer holds KERX.
15. Emergency Medical Services (EMS): SAC has disclosed that now, it only owns a 1.2% stake in EMS, drastically reducing its position from last disclosure.
16. Charlotte Russe (CHIC): It completely sold out of its position.
17. Cymer (CYMI): It completely sold out of CYMI.
18. Biomarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN): SAC sold out of its entire position.
19. Chiquita Brands (CQB): It no longer owns CQB.
20. Applied Energetics (AERG): It completely sold out of AERG.
21. Century Aluminum (CENX) - It completely sold out of its position.
22. American Apparel (APP): SAC no longer owns any APP.
23. Acorda Therapeutics (ACOR): It completely sold out of this name.
24. P.F. Chang's China Bistro (PFCB): It disclosed that it now owns a 1.3% stake in the company.
25. Vaxgen (VXGN): It is now showing a 1.6% stake in VXGN.
26. Fresh Del Monte Produce (FDP): It is now showing a less than 0.1% ownership stake.
27. Navistar International (NAV): It disclosed that it now has a 2.1% stake in NAV.
28. Vanda Pharmaceuticals (VNDA): It sold completely out of its position.
29. Sanderson Farms (SAFM): It also sold completely out of this name.
30. Assured Guaranty (AGO): It now has a 0.2% ownership stake in AGO.
31. Akorn (AKRX): It now shows a 0.3% ownership stake.
32. Auxilium Pharmaceuticals (AUXL): It now shows a 0.3% ownership stake in this name, as well.
33. Stewart Enterprises (STEI): SAC now has a 4% ownership stake in STEI.
34. Ocean Power Technologies (OPTT): Due to activity on January 1, 2009, SAC now shows a 4.9% ownership stake in the company
35. Hasbro (HAS): Activity with its shares on December 31, 2008 has lead SAC to disclose a 3.6% ownership stake in HAS.
36. Cougar Biotechnology (CGRB): SAC has disclosed that it now has a less than 0.1% ownership stake in the company.
37. Orexigen Therapeutics (OREX): SAC now shows a 4.9% ownership stake in OREX.

As you can see, from a collective 37 separate 13G filings, for the most part, SAC was reducing many of its position sizes. We just want to remind everyone again, that SAC has a tendency to move in and out of positions very quickly, so keep that in mind. We're merely relaying the information that was filed with the SEC and we will update any other positions it might change in the future. SAC decreased equity exposure by almost half from quarter to quarter (based on 13F filings with the SEC) and it was reported SAC was going to cash back in October. Also interesting is that many of the largest positions in its portfolio consist of debt of various companies.

This is the Third Quarter 2008 edition of our ongoing hedge fund portfolio tracking series. Before reading this update, make sure you check out the preface to the series we're doing on Hedge Fund 13F filings here.

The other funds we've already covered include:

Jack Lifton, a consultant, author and public speaker with more than 45 years of experience in sourcing and recycling minor metals (including the rare earths), shares his views on the current balancing act between technologies production and available natural resources. Mr. Lifton identifies these dwindling resources and the mining companies in which to invest, as he warns of the devastating effect production cuts will have on our everyday lives in "the age of technology metals."

The Gold Report: Jack, you've been speaking a lot at conferences about technology metals and rare earth metals. Can you give us some insights into your theories?

F4Q08 Earnings Call

October 30, 2008 2:00 pm ET

On the right hand side, Joy Global (JOYG) was down sharply on the week after missing earnings by 7 cents on Wednesday.  ABM Industries (ABM) was another notable decliner on huge volume after its 8 cent earnings miss wiped out a year's gain on a seemingly steady uptrend.

Q3 2008 Earnings Call Transcript

July 24, 2008 2:00 pm ET

Q2 FY08 Earnings Call

May 01, 2008, 02:00 PM ET

• Fed cuts to 2%, likely to stay there. The FOMC announced a much-anticipated 25 BP cut to 2%, and lowered the discount rate to 2.25%. The former decision was endorsed by 8 of the Fed's 10 voting governors; Richard Fisher and Charles Plosser preferred no change. In its statement, the Fed stressed the dual tensions of weak economic activity and credit market stress vs. notable inflationary pressure. Pimco's Bill Gross noted the neutrality of the Fed's statement, which leads many to believe interest rates will stay put at 2% for the foreseeable future.
• GDP et al. Q1 GDP growth was 0.6%, just beating estimates of 0.5%. The six-month rate of growth is at its lowest since 2001. Consumer spending, which accounts for 70% of the economy, rose at an annual pace of just 1%, vs. 2.3% last quarter. ADP's job report said employers added 10,000 workers in April, up from 3,000 in March. The National Association of Purchasing Management-Chicago's business activity index came in at 48.3, just up from last month's 48.2.
• Lennar plunges. Lennar (LEN) fell almost 9% amid concerns its joint-venture partner LandSource will file for bankruptcy protection, after S&P said it is likely to do so within the next 2-3 weeks. There are concerns of a spill over from the LandSource project to other joint ventures.
• Continental looking around. Continental Airlines (CAL) is exploring an alliance with American Airlines (AMR) and British Airways (BAIRY.PK), which could lead to it dropping out of its membership in the SkyTeam airline marketing group next year. SkyTeam includes soon-to-be-merged Delta Air Lines (DAL) and Northwest Airlines (NWA). Sources say Continental will be wooed by all three major airline marketing groups. It could remain with SkyTeam if its terms are improved, join British Air and AMR, or move to UAL's (UAUA) Star Alliance.
• Cablevision jumps into fray for Newsday. Sources say Cablevision (CVC) will bid up to $650M for Tribune's Newsday, trumping bids by News Corp. (NWS) and Daily News owner Mortimer Zuckerman. News Corp. informaly agreed to buy Newsday last month for $580M. Wondering what Cablevision plans to do with a newspaper company? So are many investors. One possibility: Bundling Newsday subscriptions with other services.
• Atom in short supply. Intel (INTC)'s new Diamondville chip, which targets low-cost "Netbook" computers, is in short supply due to heavier-than-expected orders. Intel plans to produce "millions" of the chips, members of its Atom product line, in 2008.
• TV on the go. AT&T (T) will launch a cellphone TV service next week that will compete with a similar offering from Verizon Wireless (VZ) (VOD). A lineup of 150 shows includes CSI and The Daily Show. AT&T also has exclusive rights to CNN News. The shows will be carried on the MediaFLO network, which is owned by Qualcomm (QCOM). Analysts are skeptical about how strong the demand for pint-size TV will be; they say only 5% of consumers are currently willing to pay for it.
• Good memories. Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) Labs engineers say a recent discover called "memristor" could allow future memory chips to retain information, unlike today's DRAM. They could ultimately succeed the flash-memory chips used in digital cameras and other devices. The discovery, documented in May's Nature journal, is the first major announcement since HP revamped its labs in March. Memristors will have to compete with the emerging Numonyx technology jointly developed by Intel (INTC) and ST Microelectronics (STM), among others.

Earnings: Wednesday After Close

• Akamai (AKAM): Q1 EPS of $0.41 beats consensus of $0.39. Revenue of $187M vs. consensus of $188.2M. Shares: -0.3%.
• Allegheny Energy (AYE): Q1 EPS of $0.80 beats consensus of $0.78. Revenue of $875M vs. consensus of $951M. Shares: -1%.
• Allied Waste Industries (AW): Q1 EPS of $0.17 in line. Revenue of $1.5B in line. Shares: +1.9%.
• Ashford Hospitality (AHT): Adjusted FFO of $0.29 misses consensus of $0.32. Revenue of $314.5M vs. consensus of $301M. Shares: -1%.
• Atmel (ATML): Q1 EPS of $0.03 beats consensus of $0.01. Revenue of $411M vs. consensus of $404M. Shares: flat.
• Cabot (CBT): FQ2 EPS of $0.36 misses consensus of $0.41. Revenue of $786M vs. consensus of $728M. Shares: -0.15%.
• Centex (CTX): FQ4 EPS of -$7.34 misses consensus of -$2.43. Revenue of $2.31M vs. consensus of $2.2B. Shares: -3.8%.
• Duke Realty (DRE): FFO of $0.58 misses consensus of $0.62. Revenue of $243M vs. consensus of $203M. Sees full-year FFO of $2.60-2.90, better than consensus of $2.69. Shares: -0.4%.
• Fiserv (FISV): EPS of $0.78 beats consensus of $0.76. Revenue of $1.31B vs. consensus of $1.26B. Sees 2008 EPS of $3.28-3.40, short of consensus of $3.41. Shares: +0.7%.
• iRobot (IRBT): EPS of -$0.16 in line. Revenue of $57M vs. consensus of $55M. Lowers full-year EPS guidance to $0.12-0.17 from $0.18-0.23 vs. consensus of $0.23. Lowers full-year revenue guidance to $295-305M from $300-310M vs. consensus of $298M. Shares -10.5%.
• Itron (ITRI): Q1 EPS of $0.82 beats consensus of $0.70. Revenue of $478M vs. consensus of $454M. Sees full-year EPS of $3.25-3.45 vs. consensus of $3.36, and full-year revenue of $1.88-1.93B vs. consensus of $1.89B. Shares: +4.4%.
• JDS Uniphase (JDSU): FQ3 EPS of $0.14 in line. Revenue of $384M vs. consensus of $394M. Sees Q4 revenue of $381-403M, short of consensus of $406M. Shares: -10.1%.
• Las Vegas Sands (LVS): Q1 EPS of $0.07 misses consensus of $0.36. Revenue of $1.08B vs. consensus $1.24B. Shares: -8.55%.
• Murphy Oil (MUR): Q1 EPS of $2.14 beats consensus of $1.94. Revenue of $6.53B vs. consensus of $6.23B. Shares: -1%.
• Prudential Financial (PRU): Q1 EPS of $1.62 misses consensus of $1.82. Sees full-year EPS of $7.50-7.80, short of consensus of $7.77. Shares: -2.4%.
• Shutterfly (SFLY): EPS of -$0.15 in line. Revenue of $34.3M vs. consensus of $35.6M. Sees Q2 revenue of $35-38M vs. consensus of $39.8M, and EPS of -$0.19 to -$0.24 vs. consensus of -$0.15. Sees full-year EPS of $0.30-0.50 vs. consensus of $0.44, and revenue of $225-245M vs. consensus of $252M. Shares: +2.7%
• Starbucks (SBUX): FQ2 EPS of $0.15 in line. Revenue of $2.5B in line. Sees full-year EPS of less than $0.87 vs. consensus of $0.85, and full-year revenue growth of 13%-14%. Shares: -0.7%.
• Sunoco (SUN): Q1 EPS of -$0.50 misses consensus of -$0.41. Revenue of $12.81B vs. consensus of $6.28B. Shares: +0.2%.
• Symantec (SYMC): FQ4 EPS of $0.36 beats consensus of $0.34. Revenue of $1.55B in line. Sees FQ1 EPS of $0.34-0.36, better than consensus of $0.31, and revenue of $1.555-1.595B vs. consensus of $1.5B. Shares: +3.7%
• Trinity Industries (TRN): Q1 EPS of $0.81 beats consensus of $0.73. Revenue of $899M vs. consensus of $828.5M. Sees Q2 EPS of $0.85-0.90, better than consensus of $0.86. Sees full-year EPS of $3.20-3.45, short of consensus of $3.37. Shares: +3.95%.
• Unum Group (UNM): Q1 EPS of $0.59 beats consensus of $0.57. Revenue of $2.54B vs. consensus of $2.65B. Shares: +2%.

Earnings: Thursday Before Open

• Adobe (ADBE): Sees full-year EPS of $1.86-1.92 vs. consensus of $1.89, and full-year revenue growth of about 13%.
• Burger King (BKC): FQ3 EPS of $0.30 beats consensus of $0.27. Revenue of $594M vs. consensus of $580M. Sees full-year EPS of $1.33-1.35, better than consensus of $1.32.
• Cardinal Health (CAH): FQ3 EPS of $1.08 beats consensus of $1.01. Revenue of $22.9B vs. $23.42 consensus.
• CIGNA (CI): Q1 EPS of $0.94 misses consensus of $0.96. Revenue of $4.57B in-line. Full-year EPS guidance of $4.05-4.25 falls short of $4.25 consensus.
• CVS Corp. (CVS): Q1 EPS of $0.55 in-line. Revenue of $21.33B in line.
• Dominion Resources (D): Q1 EPS of $1.00 beats consensus of $0.89. Revenue of $4.39B vs. consensus of $4.08B. Sees Q2 EPS of $0.47-0.52, lower than consensus of $0.54.
• Eastman Kodak (EK): Q1 EPS of -$0.39 vs. consensus of -$0.04 (not comparable). Revenue of $2.09B vs. consensus of $2.03B. Sees full-year revenue of $10.3-10.5B vs. consensus of $10.2B.
• Herbalife (HLF): Q1 EPS of $0.93 beats consensus of $0.80. Revenue of $604M vs. consensus of $581M. Sees Q2 EPS of $0.89-0.92, better than consensus of $0.83. Raises full-year EPS guidance to $3.52-3.57 vs. consensus of $3.32.
• Noble Energy (NBL): Q1 EPS of $2.05 beats consensus of $1.71. Revenue of $1.02B vs. consensus of $0.89B.
• Nymex (NMX): EPS of $0.83 just beats consensus of $0.82. Revenue of $209M in-line.
• Revlon (REV): Q1 EPS of $0.00 beats consensus of -$0.01. Revenue of $320M in line.
• Sepracor (SEPR): Q1 EPS of $0.53 beats consensus of $0.47. Revenue of $321M vs. consensus of $335M.
• Tyco Electronics (TEL): FQ2 EPS of $0.67 beats consensus of $0.61. Revenue of $3.66B in line. Sees FQ3 EPS of $0.66-0.68, better than consensus of $0.63. Sees full-year EPS of $2.60-2.66, better than consensus of $2.53.
• Tyco International (TYC): FQ2 EPS of $0.67 beats consensus of $0.57. Revenue of $4.87B vs. consensus of $4.94B. Full-year EPS guidance of $2.65-2.75, better than consensus of $2.67.
• Williams Companies (WMB): Q1 EPS of $0.57 beats consensus of $0.52. Williams increased its consolidated segment profit for 2008.
• Wyndham Worldwide (WYN): Q1 EPS of $0.35 beats consensus of $0.33. Revenue of $1.01B vs. consensus of $1.04B.
• Xcel Energy (XEL): Q1 EPS of $0.35 beats consensus of $0.31. Revenue of $3.03B vs. $2.84B consensus.

Q1 FY08 Earnings Call

January 24, 2008, 2:00 PM ET

From the Bespoke Interactive Earnings Report Database, we filtered stocks with at least 20 quarters worth of earnings report data to find the ones that have beaten or missed earnings per share estimates the most often. These are key data points for stock owners to know, because they affect the sentiment and price reaction of stocks on their earnings report days.

While it is fundamentally positive for a company to consistently beat earnings estimates, it also creates high expectations for future earnings reports. If a stock has beaten estimates 100% of the time over the past 5 years, an earnings miss will most likely impact the stock more on the downside than a stock that beats only 50% of the time. Conversely, if a stock is known to miss estimates quite a bit, an earnings beat will most likely impact the stock more on the upside than one that beats estimates all of the time.

One of the most important things to look for when investing is management friendliness towards shareholders. There are countless companies out there who are very adept at promoting their stock, but as we've seen with Enron, WorldCom, Adelphia, etc., following such advice is a very bad idea. Many lost their entire retirement assuming that upper-level management wouldn't lie to them. How, then, is it possible to determine whether management is acting in the best interest of the shareholders?

There are a few ways to do this. You could listen to conference calls and read through 10-K and 10-Q SEC reports. Unfortunately, not everyone can derive the information needed to make a decision from these sources. There is, in fact, a much simpler way to find companies that are truly aligned with their shareholders: by tracking insider buying.

Nanotechnology is the science of manufacturing, and utilizing extremely small particles and devices. A nanometer is one billionth of a meter, or about 80,000 times thinner than an average human hair. Some nanomaterials include carbon nanotubes used in electronics and such products as body armor and cancer treatments, nanoclays which are used in composite materials, and nanoscale metals, alloys, and oxides, used in the power and renewable energy industries.

The following are the companies with the lowest price earnings to growth ratios, with market capitalizations over $1 billion that have some time of involvement in nanotechnology.

This week's economic calendar kicks off Monday at 10 a.m. with Consumer Confidence. Tuesday we have GDP-adv. at 8:30 a.m. followed by the Chicago PMI at 9:45 a.m. and Crude Inventories at 10:30 a.m.

While the recent run-up in Crude prices has many looking for this week's inventories report the market will be waiting anxiously for Tuesday's 2:15 p.m. FOMC policy statement. General consensus amongst investors calls for a 25 basis point cut at the meeting. Wednesday at 8:30 we have Personal Spending, Core PCE Inflation and Initial Claims.

Aerogel was first created by Steven Kistler in 1931 as a result of a bet with another chemist, and according to TimesOnline was later enhanced by NASA in order to catch dust from a Comet's tail. A company created by NASA called Aspen Aerogels eventually produced a stronger, more flexible version of the gel in 2002 which is being used in space suits for the first manned mission to Mars scheduled for 2018.

Look for all kinds of products to be outfitted with this material over the next several years as companies look to make products lighter and stronger. Aspen Aerogels is still a private company, so there isn't a way to invest yet, but it will be a company worth watching over the next few years if and when they get bought out or pursue an IPO.

I have been busy today buying stocks. I added Mothers Work (MWRK) and I accumulated shares of an actual Graham net-net for the Fat Pitch Financials Port. I also picked up shares of an odd lot tender offer and earlier this week I sold my very profitable KBR position in the Special Situations Real Money Port. More details will follow shortly on some of my purchases.

A fuel cell is an electrochemical energy conversion device which produces electricity from external supplies of fuel and an oxidant. They can operate continuously, as long as the flow continues between the fuel and the oxidant. A fuel cell's electrodes are relatively stable, unlike a battery. The most common type of fuel cell is the hydrogen fuel cell, which uses hydrogen as fuel and oxygen as oxidant.