Q3 2009 Earnings Call Transcript

October 29, 2009 at 4:30 pm ET

One of the perks of being a certified Seeking Alpha contributor is access to various research tools like Zacks.com. Zacks is an investment research service primarily oriented toward momentum and growth investing so their recommended stocks tend to be closer to 52-week highs than to the lows. Nevertheless, I find their in-depth company research reports to be more informative than those offered by Morningstar or S&P.

While Zacks prefers stocks with strong earnings and stock price momentum, I took the inverse approach, screening for stocks with bad Zacks rankings (1 equates to strong buy and 5 a strong sell) but strong business models to overcome any short-term hindrances. We're looking for princes disguised as toads so I added strong ROA and price-to-cash-flow requirements. Here is the specific criteria used:

June employment numbers were released this morning, coming in with another monthly decline in payrolls. According to the release, nonfarm payrolls declined by 467,000 which is a much larger drop than the published 325,000 expectations. The decline is also much larger than May’s decline which showed 322,000 fewer payrolls. The official unemployment rate is now pegged at 9.5%, inching ever closer to the emotionally significant 10% mark.

The initial reaction in stock futures was a move lower as the report obviously calls into question a widespread assumption that we are experiencing the “green shoots” of economic recovery. Naturally, bullish investors and pundits will attempt to explain that employment numbers typically lag an economic recovery so we will likely not see job growth until the economic recovery truly is underway and companies have more confidence to hire new employees.

Q4 2008 Earnings Call

February 19, 2009; 04:30 pm ET

Q3 2008 Earnings Call

October 21, 2008; 4:30 pm ET

Since November 2007, our ChangeWave consumer surveys have tracked a continuing slowdown in U.S. restaurant spending. To find out if the outlook for restaurants is showing any signs of improvement, we surveyed Alliance members on their dining habits during the weeks of June 25-July 2 (n = 4,525) and July 7-14 (n = 1,276).

Here’s what we found:

Each day, Wall Street is flooded with stock research offering a multitude of conflicting investment opinions. As such, TickerMine is not in the business of providing more opinions. We believe that accurate raw data points can be used to gain insight in to the stock selection and valuation process.

Half of Parties of Two spend Only $20-$30 at Chili's (EAT)

Q2 2008 Earnings Call

July 22, 2008 4:30 pm ET

An earnings "triple play" occurs when a stock beats earnings and revenue estimates and guides future earnings higher.  There were about 70 stocks that had "triple plays" during the first quarter earnings season.  As we enter the second quarter earnings season, investors may want to look at these stocks to find momentum plays or ones that had strong reports but fell by the wayside as the overall market declined.

In the first table below, we highlight "triple play" stocks from the first quarter that are up the most since they opened for trading following their last earnings report.  These stocks had a solid earnings report and haven't looked back since, even in one of the worst markets in decades.  For momentum traders out there, these names currently have great relative strength.

Each day, Wall Street is flooded with stock research offering a multitude of conflicting investment opinions. As such, TickerMine is not in the business of providing more opinions. We believe that accurate raw data points can be used to gain insight in to the stock selection and valuation process.

On the Border Mexican Grill & Cantina (EAT) Reports Business as Steady,  Same as Last Year, Survey Says

Within a tough restaurant market, shares of Brinker International Inc. fell in mid-May. Analysts said the restaurant operator is facing a tough environment and downgraded the stock. Tickermine surveyed the On the Border Mexican Grill & Cantina restaurant this week, one within the Brinker International Inc., chain. Our surveyors asked respondents whether lunch or dinner was busiest, what were the most popular menu items, what kind of competition they had nearby, was business up or down from a year ago and how old was their location? 27 locations were consulted across the nation. Twenty six respondents or 93% reported dinner as their busier shift and only two respondents or 7% reported it to be lunch. And in spite of poor rankings, most respondents reported that business was the same compared with this time last year (46% or 13 respondents.) Eight people or 29% reported business was busier and only 7 respondents or 25% said that business had dropped. Only one respondent, 4%, claimed their location was new, i.e. less than a year old and 27 respondents or 96% said the location was older than a year. Most respondents, specifically, 11 or 39% of those interviewed felt that their customers returned to their location because of the atmosphere. 10 respondents or 36% thought it was the menu luring people back and 7 or 25% thought, moreso, it was the prices. The average check for a party of two, according to our respondents was, $36.92 and while 15 respondents or 54% of those interviewed reported having competing restaurants nearby, 13 or 46% reported having none. Several competitors were cited including Chevy's, Atlantic Seafood Company and Chili's. The most popular menu item at On the Border locations this month was hands down, the fajitas, which were mentioned by 16 respondents or 57% of those polled. Other menu items mentioned included the Build your own Burrito (5 respondents or 18%), Grande Fajita Nachos (2 respondents or 7%) and the following each were mentioned once or by 4% of those interviewed: Chicken Flautas, Chicken tortillas, Jalapeno BBQ Salmon, Mesquite Grilled Steak and Southwest Chicken Tacos.

Business Holding Strong at Pizza Inn (PZZI); Customers Drawn to Menu Options

Recap of CNBC's Fast Money, Wednesday April 23. Click on a stock ticker for more analysis.

Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT)

Q1 2008 Earnings Call

April 23, 2008 4:30 pm ET

Q4 2007 Earnings Call

February 19, 2008 4:30 pm ET

It is always nice when management thinks like owners. While earnings have been flat at CEC for a couple of quarters, yesterday management announced a large scale recapitalization to buyback a significant amount of the outstanding shares.

With less than a 1:1 debt to equity ratio and only 1.2x Debt to EBITDA ratio, the company has the ability to utilize debt to significantly reduce the share base outstanding and enhance shareholder value for the remaining owners. Yesterday they increased their share buyback by $200 million to a total remaining of $346 million. This represents about 40% of the outstanding shares.

Now fast forward five years, the company is currently off about 18% from its 52 week high and trading just under 17x trailing twelve months earnings and about 14x 2008's expected earnings. The recent dip in price has been related to increasing food costs, the cash flow drag of a large store remodeling project and the general uncertainty about consumer spending due to the housing downturn. Traditionally dips like this have been good times to buy Chuck E. Cheese and while I have a full position already, I am holding this one for several more years primarily due to demographics that I will explain later.

In a separate 13D/A filing, Pirate Capital disclosed a 7.3% stake (2.44 million shares) in CEC Entertainment (CEC). Pirate held 3.045 million shares of CEC Entertainment as of the quarter ended September 30th.

Pirate Capital has been liquidating a number of positions since the hedge fund's shake-up in the fall.

Tapping New Markets

		SEC	DOJ		Charges/
		Scru-	Scru-	Depar-	Restate-
Ticker	Company	tiny	tiny	tures	ments
(AAPL)	Apple Computer	√			√
(ACS)	Affiliated Computer Services	√	√		√
(ADI)	Analog Devices	√	√
(ADSK)	Autodesk	√
(AFFX)	Affymetrix	√			√
(ALKS)	Alkermes	√			√
(ALTR)	Altera	√	√		√
(AMCC)	Applied Micro Circuits	√	√
(AMT)	American Tower	√	√		√
(APOL)	Apollo Group	√	√
(ARTC)	ArthroCare	√
(ASYT)	Asyst Technologies	√	√
(ATML)	Atmel	√
(ATVI)	Activision	√
(BCGI)	Boston Communications Group	√
(BCSI)	Blue Coat Systems	√
(BEAS)	BEA Systems	√
(BKS)	Barnes & Noble	√	√
(BRCD)	Brocade Communications Systems	√	√	√	√
(BRCM)	Broadcom	√			√
(BRKS)	Brooks Automation	√	√	√	√
(CA)	CA	√			√
(CAKE)	The Cheesecake Factory	√			√
(CCI)	Crown Castle International	√
(CEC)	CEC Entertainment	√
(CHRD)	Chordiant Software	√
(CLX)	Clorox	√			√
(CMVT)	Comverse Technology	√	√	√	√
(CMX)	Caremark Rx.	√	√
(CNET)	CNET Networks	√	√		√
(COCO)	Corinthian Colleges	√
(CRDN)	Ceradyne	√			√
(CSC)	Computer Sciences	√	√
(CVC)	Cablevision	√	√		√
(CYBX)	Cyberonics	√	√
(DPTR)	Delta Petroleum	√	√
(ENDO)	Endocare	√
(EQIX)	Equinix	√	√
(FDRY)	Foundry Networks	√	√
(FFIV)	F5 Networks	√	√
(FLSH)	msystems	√			√
(HD)	Home Depot	√
(HILL)	Dot Hill Systems	√
(HLSH)	HealthSouth	√
(INTU)	Intuit	√	√
(JBL)	Jabil Circuit	√	√
(JCOM)	J2 Global	√			√
(JNPR)	Juniper Networks	√	√		√
(KBH)	KB Home	√
(KLAC)	KLA-Tencor	√	√
(KOSP)	KOS Pharmaceuticals	√			√
(LLL)	L-3 Communications Holdings	√
(LLTC)	Linear Technology	√	√
(MEAD)	Meade Instruments	√
(MEDX)	Medarex	√	√		√
(MERQ)	Mercury Interactive	√		√	√
(MFE)	McAfee Inc.	√	√	√	√
(MIK)	Michaels Stores	√	√
(MNST)	Monster Worldwide	√	√		√
(MOLX)	Molex	√
(MRVL)	Marvell Technology Group	√	√
(MSFT)	Microsoft	√
(MVSN)	Macrovision	√	√
(MXIM)	Maxim Integrated Products	√	√
(NOVL)	Novell	√
(NR)	Newpark Resources	√		√	√
(NVDA)	Nvidia	√			√
(NVLS)	Novellus Systems	√
(NYFX)	Nyfix	√	√
(OPWV)	Openwave Systems	√	√
(PLUS)	EPlus	√	√
(PMCS)	PMC-Sierra	√
(POWI)	Power Integrations	√	√	√	√
(PRGS)	Progress Software	√
(QSFT)	Quest Software	√			√
(QUIK)	QuickLogic	√
(RBAK)	Redback Networks	√	√
(RMBS)	Rambus	√		√	√
(RSAS)	RSA Security	√	√
(RSTO)	Restoration Hardware	√			√
(SANM)	Sanmina-SCI	√
(SCMR)	Sycamore Networks	√	√		√
(SEPR)	Sepracor	√			√
(SFNT)	SafeNet	√	√		√
(SIGM)	Sigma Designs	√
(SMTC)	Semtech	√	√		√
(SNSA)	Stolt-Nielsen	√			√
(SYVT)	Sysview Technology	√			√
(THQI)	THQ	√
(TRID)	Trident Microsystems	√	√
(TTWO)	Take-Two Interactive Software	√
(ULCM)	Ulticom	√
(UNH)	UnitedHealth	√	√		√
(VRSN)	VeriSign	√	√
(VRNT)	Verint	√
(VTSS)	Vitesse Semiconductor	√	√	√	√
(WDC)	Western Digital	√
(WITS)	Witness Systems	√			√
(XLNX)	Xilinx	√			√
(ZRAN)	Zoran	√	√
	Engineered Support Systems	√	√
	Renal Care	√	√