Tue, Mar. 31, 12:34 PM
- The growing probability that China will devalue its currency could prove potentially “devastating" for fertilizer stocks because global nitrogen prices would plunge instantly with ammonia following in sympathy, Scotiabank's Ben Isaacson says.
- Potash demand destruction would be swift as Chinese farmers push back on soaring local prices required to cover unchanged U.S. dollar prices, although the phosphate market could be spared as lower-cost Chinese capacity would not be able to push non-integrated India producers off the cost curve, Isaacson says.
- "Commodities worldwide would suffer greatly,” the analyst says, noting that Agrium (AGU -1.1%) and Mosaic (MOS -0.9%) would be the better picks if a devaluation occurs but would still suffer “first-degree burns."
- Also: POT +0.4%, CF -1%, SQM -0.9%, IPI -0.5%.
Wed, Feb. 18, 7:59 AM
- CF Industries (NYSE:CF) -0.9% premarket after Q4 earnings fell short of analyst estimates, hurt by higher natural gas prices and negative derivatives impacts.
- CF says nitrogen expansion projects in Louisiana and Iowa now look to cost $4.2B, up from earlier expectations of $3.8B, after factoring in higher cost estimates for construction materials and labor in Iowa.
- A drop in crop prices to multi-year lows last year and a delayed U.S. harvest was expected to reduce fertilizer use; given the shortened fall season to apply fertilizer last year, a significant volume of nitrogen needs to be applied in H1 of 2015 to catch up, CF says.
- Q4 net nitrogen sales rose 3% Y/Y to $1.2B despite lower sales volume, buoyed by higher selling prices.
- Expects U.S. farmers to plant 90M acres of corn in 2015, after planting 90.6M acres in 2014.
Tue, Feb. 17, 5:21 PM
Mon, Feb. 16, 5:35 PM
Thu, Feb. 5, 2:07 PM
Thu, Jan. 8, 5:52 PM
- Sealed Air (NYSE:SEE) is Credit Suisse’s top pick in the basic materials sector, seeing falling oil prices providing huge benefits for SEE and boosting the company’s bottom line in 2015.
- The firm believes better days are ahead for U.S. Steel (NYSE:X), with all the advantages to be among the world's most profitable steel producing companies; its $50 stock price target would represent a double from current levels.
- Credit Suisse lists CF Industries’ (NYSE:CF) favorable capital allocation and free cash flow as positives for the stock.
- The firm suggests avoiding Intrepid Potash (NYSE:IPI), citing the company’s low free cash flow generation and slow implication of cost-cutting initiatives.
Mon, Jan. 5, 11:49 AM
- CF Industries (CF -0.2%) is upgraded to Overweight from Neutral with a $327 price target, up from $271, at Piper Jaffray, which says nitrogen nutrient fundamentals appear to be favorable in 2015 and CF looks poised to benefit from higher capacity and an improved free cash flow in FY 2016.
- Jaffray says expectations are strong for corn planting in the U.S., further supporting strong demand for nitrogen, especially urea and UAN as farmers move to dry application and more side-dress.
- The firm says the recent decline in natural gas prices suggests ongoing lower prices, providing “significant upside” to its model.
Dec. 3, 2014, 3:29 PM
- CF Industries (CF +0.6%) says it has restarted operating units at its Woodward, Okla., nitrogen complex.
- CF had shut down production at the complex in October to address a problem in one of the site’s boilers.
- The Woodward complex has average annual production capacity for 480K tons of gross ammonia, 820K tons of UAN, and 25K tons of urea liquor.
Nov. 26, 2014, 12:11 PM
- Potash producers Agrium (AGU -2.6%), Potash Corp. (POT -0.3%), Mosaic (MOS -0.2%), CF Industries (CF -1.3%) and Intrepid Potash (IPI -1.1%) continue to give back the gains that followed Uralkali’s mine suspension, and BofA Merrill's downgrade of AGU hasn't helped.
- While BofA remains positive on earnings from nitrogen, it believes potash is oversupplied and global demand growth could regress from 2014's ~11% pace.
- But Stifel analysts are not throwing in the towel on the potash producers, citing potash supply constraints from declining North American producer inventories as well as the potential for the permanent closure of the Russian mine offsetting the negative impact of potentially lower North American planted corn acreage.
Nov. 19, 2014, 10:31 AM
- CF Industries (CF +0.6%) is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral with a $315 price target, up from $228, at Credit Suisse, believing CF will further improve its industry positioning over the next 2-3 years and generate best-in-class free cash flow vs. peers.
- Although Credit Suisse sees nitrogen prices moderating slightly in 2015-16, the trend is well within market expectations; the firm says even with materially lower pricing, CF still has the ability to generate ~$32/share of free cash flow in 2017.
Nov. 6, 2014, 10:49 AM
- CF Industries (CF -2.1%) is lower after reporting a 36% decline in Q3 earnings, reflecting higher cost of natural gas and lower sales as well as margins following the sale its phosphate business earlier this year.
- Q3 n,net sales in the itrogen products segment totaled $921M, up 5% Y/Y, driven by a 6% increase in sales volume, of which half was attributable to contractual ammonia sales to Mosaic; total company net sales in the prior year are not comparable given the sale of the phosphate business.
- Gross margin for the quarter contracted to 32.7% from 35.2% in the prior-year period.
- Looking ahead, CF foresees strong nitrogen demand associated with 90M acres of corn expected to be planted in 2015.
Nov. 5, 2014, 4:48 PM
Nov. 4, 2014, 5:35 PM
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Oct. 29, 2014, 6:58 PM
- CF Industries (NYSE:CF) says its Woodward nitrogen complex in Oklahoma is shut down for repairs, and expects to take roughly six weeks to return to normal operations.
- The Woodward complex has average annual production capacity for 480K tons of gross ammonia, 820Ktons of UAN, and 25K tons of urea liquor.
Oct. 17, 2014, 2:21 PM
- CF Industries (CF -2.3%) is reiterated with a Buy rating but with a reduced price target of $283, down from $306, by BofA's Kevin McCarthy after the termination of merger talks with Yara.
- The firm believes CF is settling into a steadier rhythm following a period of substantial change, and now sees three principal reasons to continue to support CF shares: a low-cost position based on inexpensive U.S. natural gas, ongoing share repurchases funded by strong cash flow, and pending nitrogen capacity expansions of 25% in Louisiana and Iowa for H2 2015 and 2016, respectively.
Oct. 17, 2014, 8:35 AM
CF vs. ETF Alternatives
CF Industries Holdings Inc is a manufacturer and distributor of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer products in North America. The Company's products include ammonia, urea, urea ammonium nitrate solution, diammonium phosphate and monoammonium phosphate.
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