Colonial Insured Municipal Fund (CFX)
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- All Comments on CFX
- General Discussion on CFX
- Tax-Free Closed-End Funds and Stocks For Income Investing [view article]
- Take Out Chinese - Cramer's Lightning Round (6/12/08) [view article]
- The State of the IPO Market [view article]
- Colfax's Solid IPO: Perfectly Positioned to Play the Asian Growth Engine [view article]
- Colfax IPO Should Get Your Liquids Flowing [view article]
- Facts on Colfax - Cramer's Mad Money (5/12/08) [view article]
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Tax-Free Closed-End Funds and Stocks For Income Investing [view article]
Does it relate to buying or selling?----------------
Karmath
[url=www.drugaddiction.net/...]Maryland Drug Addiction[/url]
Reply
Take Out Chinese - Cramer's Lightning Round (6/12/08) [view article]
Cramer continues to bash IP but he was pounding the table on WY at 65. This type of market chews up and spits out momentum traders who only chase price. I'm sorry to say hes just full of hot air and fluff these days. Perhaps he needs some better interns to give him ideas. ReplyTake Out Chinese - Cramer's Lightning Round (6/12/08) [view article]
New technology? Exsuse me, so what do we call the technology currently developed at Apple and Google that will redefine the world?Cramer, 'new tech" is just a marketing trick u want us to suck up to. WallastonInvestments.c... Reply
Take Out Chinese - Cramer's Lightning Round (6/12/08) [view article]
Cramer is too much. Now is he moving toward dividend plays saying the underlying stock is also basically sound. Both of the stocks will be consumer demand loses. He just does not see that inflation will hurt consumption in consumer goods. It has and It will in the future. He has worn out his credibility with me, how about you? ReplyScheidt
The State of the IPO Market [view article]
sounds like you have quite a firm on your hands! good luck getting the word out on your technology!Best,
ZDS Reply
The State of the IPO Market [view article]
I certainly wish my company was big enough to be considered for an IPO. I have been in business 38 years growing hi-tech single crystals. Ruby, sapphire, garnets YAG, Cubic Zirconia, and others. (See the 'factory pictures' page on my website : shelbygemfactory.com ). One of my developments is a process for making forming layers of multi-crystalline Silicon sheets for use in solar cells. The process is able to make sheets 0.001" thick which is about 1/15th to 1/30th the amount of silicon used by other silicon solar cell makers. My method also uses about 1/20" the electricity normally used to make silicon layers. My problem is I do not have a PhD in physics. Sort of a catch 22. I have taught the US government to make Ruby crystals and I have made over 25,000 crystals in machines of my own design and manufacture.I've recently completely designed a 25 unit factory to be installed in Armenia. They will be making crystals up to 8" diameter and weighing 200lbs. It's sort of strange, but I've sent out over 200 e-mails to the heads of technology in most all solar energy related companies, and have had only 1 response. It was from the VP of Science and Engineering of one of the largest vertically integrated companies in the Silicon solar cell business. His comments were really un-informed is the bast way I can characterize them. It would seem that some of these companies would be running a little 'scared' these days with the up-coming over supply of Silicon and the dropping prices. i think that if the silicon only contributed 20% to the cost of a multi-crystalline silicon cell, it would still be a very good thing to cut that cost down by 90%.
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Colfax's Solid IPO: Perfectly Positioned to Play the Asian Growth Engine [view article]
What about H2O? ReplyColfax IPO Should Get Your Liquids Flowing [view article]
Mr. Gold,Your analysis is pure "GOLD". All too many will simply "take a flyer"
thinking of nothing but someone else ( CFX ) doing the work as
they fall into a great space these days.
Many thanks and I would be further indebted if you cared to
share your latest ideas........
Prosper,
Tom Durkin / TomD728@gmail.com
Great work and many thanks.... Reply
Colfax's Solid IPO: Perfectly Positioned to Play the Asian Growth Engine [view article]
Bill that was a very well constructed positive argument for paying $16/share for CFX today. Additionally, factoring in the growth prospects as you have laid them out then the IPO pricing of $18 share may well have been justified. Your analysis has convinced me not to short the stock. I will be watching when earnings are announced.Best Regards,
Reply
Colfax IPO Should Get Your Liquids Flowing [view article]
asbestos litigation is sure death. It caused fluor corp to go belly up during the peak of their hey days when they got involved with john mansville. It has taken fluor almost 20 years to recover ReplyFacts on Colfax - Cramer's Mad Money (5/12/08) [view article]
READ THIS LINK BEFORE BUYING 1 SHARE OF CFXseekingalpha.com/artic...
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Colfax IPO Should Get Your Liquids Flowing [view article]
It's better to let some opportunities pass than put yourself in a highly risky position. I had just exited a position the day before and figured based upon the summary and the hype and the over sold nature of the IPO that I could grab a quick and small gain and be out. Today it is back up in the $22's based solely on Crammer's advise I would speculate. I have since done my homework as I typically do before entering a deal even for a small grab. This thing could go to $70/share but I personally don't see how and don't understand it. There exist many better deals than this one out there currently. The Rails brothers (the owners of CFX) have pieced this company together by acquisitions. Unfortunately they made some of the same mistakes I made by not doing there homework and ended up buying some entities with significant asbestos exposure which has killed the cash flow on CFX from 2003 till 2006. 2007 they received this big 50m reimbursement and decided it was time to get there money back. They currently have no downside with nothing in the deal but pure free equity thanks to the IPO.Here is a better explanation that I dropped on Yahoo's Finance Board yesterday.
I may short this deal once I understand it better. More than likely I will leave it alone and go on to deals that I have a more complete understanding of.
>>>>>&g...
Here is what any Colfax investor should know.
Colfax has exposure to asbestos claims which its insurance company would not pay. This has been killing earnings for years. Over the years from 2003 to 2006 Colfax paid $100m for legal expenses and asbestos claims. This is not over. They still carry more claims than coverage.
After the IPO Colfax will still owe $246m in debt (loans). Most of the IPO proceeds go to pay off owners that are selling out. It was a very clever deal and the prospectus boarders on fraud in regards to novice investors.
Net earnings presented in the Prospectus are as follows:
2003 = EPS -0.52 (yes negative)
2004 = EPS -0.62
2005 = EPS -0.09
2006 = EPS 0.07 (first year of profit)
Just for perspective and your math I remind you that Colfax issued 40m shares or 43m with the green shoe (additional shares sold by the underwriter when a deal is hot). I am not sure how the deal got so hot other than hype created by a fake/misleading $1.79/eps for 2007.
Here is what 2007 earnings look like if you remove the 50m insurance reimbursement from there insurance company which has resisted paying until recently.
Sales 506m, CGS 330m, gen expenses 98m, R&D 4m,
$506-$330-$98-$4 = 74m Income before taxes and interest payments.
Subtract out 19m in interest payments (lets use 14m to reflect the re-payment of some debt)
$74m - $14m = $60m
Now subtract out corporate tax of 40% or $24m.
$60m - $24m = $36m (NET INCOME FOR 2007 !)
eps = net income / shares outstanding
EPS = $36m / 43m (or $0.84EPS.)
Thats pretty good but its not $1.79 eps.
.84 x 20pe = $16.80 per share. Low Range
.84 x 22pe = $18.48 per share. High Range
PE's were arrived at by comparing to FLS (competitor)
Nice job underwriters. Bad job investors.
If someone disagrees please make a positive case using income to show me why CFX is worth more.
Once again I am not short. This is my understanding of the deal but I am open to clarification.
Also Q1 estimates in the prospectus of $15m Gross income (not net income) including $3m charge for more asbestos claims.
They sold an old rusty Chevy with a new Mercedes price.
Sentiment : Strong Sell Reply
Colfax IPO Should Get Your Liquids Flowing [view article]
Hey Gold, I almost made the same mistake as you. I was going to invest until I read the prospectus and found the asbestos issue. Take that out and they made $0.40 a share giving a P/E of roughly 50. Kind of expensive for a 'boring' stock. Of course, last night Jim Cramer gushed all over this stock so it will likely go up in the short term. Maybe I should have bought anyway! ReplyColfax IPO Should Get Your Liquids Flowing [view article]
CFX is a typical pump and dump. I bought this dog and was out the same day. I read the prospectus after I bought it (very very stupid). 1st time I have done this. I went with the summery info and the hype. Here is what I discovered.The inclusion of a 50m dollar payment from their insurance company for an asbestos judgment reimbursement presented a misleading EPS. Also no place in the prospectus other than the exact income sheet do they reference net income. They speak of sales and gross income only due to the fact that the price the underwriters placed on the deal is not supported by real (future) net income. They have made significant improvements in their overall sales revenues by acquisitions (Q1 estimates don't show an increase for 2008) However, their debt has increased each year and if you remove the special insurance payments from their income statement you see that they earned around $30M for 2007 or yearly EPS of $0.70. (2004,2005 and 2006 are all less) The current asbestos asset on the balance sheet does not coverage asbestos liabilities. On top of all this negative information the owners are taking this opportunities to sell many of their shares (always a bad sign I would think).
1. Many asbestos claims (I think the word asbestos is used 20 times in the prospectus)
2. Their insurance company has not wanted to pay the claims and therefore they have had to sue their insurance company cost millions in legal fees.
3. The main venture capitalist gets to sell his shares at a huge premium paid for by the IPO (I think its around $65/share).
4. The companies real EPS for 2007 for real operations and including some onetime insurance settlement is around $30M or eps of $0.70.
5. Many other insiders sold there shares see Sec recent filings.
6. Company has only grown through acquisitions which means more debt to grow.
7. The company is not paying down all of its short and long term debt.
8. Most of the IPO proceeds go to insiders trying to jump out of this burning ship.
The only good thing about this company is that they provide a real product to a real market but with little profits for 2007 and no real growth for 2008 based upon Q108 sales estimates included in the Prospectus.
Additionally, they have unlimited asbestos liability.
Best of luck - short sell this dirty dog and get some of your money back !!!!!! Reply
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General Discussion on CFX
Is this a buy or a sell? Reply