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- Try Centerline Holding For a Robust, Double-Digit Yield [view article]
- Mortgage REITs: Stick with the Seasoned Veterans [view article]
- Investment Teasers: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly [view article]
- Jim Cramer's Stop Trading! Stock Picks and Comments, March 14 [view article]
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Try Centerline Holding For a Robust, Double-Digit Yield [view article]
My stock has droped from $20 to $2.50 per share I have a big loss in your stock.What are you doing to recover my loss ?lcplac@aol.com Reply
Mortgage REITs: Stick with the Seasoned Veterans [view article]
little boys? you mean the 30 somethings that brought us this debacle? Agreed! However, the seasoned vets were the ones watching the little boys play with matches while sitting on gas cans. :-( ReplyMortgage REITs: Stick with the Seasoned Veterans [view article]
richandmer, you can find articles on the "veterans" here on Seeking Alpha (click on the "More By REIT Wrecks" link just below the article), or on reitwrecks.com. ReplyMortgage REITs: Stick with the Seasoned Veterans [view article]
Joe, you are right. The suggestion that Real Point was using selective negative data to sell research was flippant. The "headline" increase in delinquencies in the first paragraph of the report was what caught my eye. The full report is obviously more comprehensive, but nonetheless much less attention grabbing - hence the irreverance toward Real Point. I apologize, and I have deleted that suggestion from the original source post.To be fair however, the point of the article was not to besmirch Real Point. The point of the article was to illustrate out that the more recent vintages of CMBS are experiencing higher levels of default (as your research aptly pointed out), and more importantly, the implications of that for those Mortgage REITs that invested in them. Incidentally, the number on the total level of outstanding CMBS debt that I used in the article came from Wachovia/Intex.
Reply
Mortgage REITs: Stick with the Seasoned Veterans [view article]
Who do you consider to be the seasoned veterans? ReplyMortgage REITs: Stick with the Seasoned Veterans [view article]
This article is a clear case of irresponsible journalism by the author. He is selectively choosing paragraphs from the Realpoint Monthly Delinquency report, rather than addressing the entire report, to make an inaccurate point that Realpoint is painting an alarming picture concerning delinquencies in CMBS. The realty is that the numbers he quoted from the Realpoint report concerning the increase in delinquency are accurate and are stated in the very first paragraph of the Realpoint report. The author obviously continued to read (and copy) the second paragraph of the Realpoint report regarding the delinquency contribution from 2005 & 2006 issuance. This must be where he stopped reading and copying the Realpoint report because had he read the next paragraph, he would have seen that Realpoint clearly addressed the overall delinquency percentage being less than half a percentage point of the outstanding balance.The first three paragraphs of the Realpoint Monthly Delinquency Report read as follows:
Concerns relative to underlying collateral performance and payment ability are becoming more evident on a monthly basis, as the delinquent unpaid balance for CMBS increased to a trailing 12-month high of $3.48 billion through February 2008, up from $3.16 billion a month prior. This figure is also up 57% from a six year low of only $2.21 billion in March of 2007. On the surface, each delinquency category reflected an increase in February 2008, including a $206 million increase across the 30-day, 60-day, and 90+-day categories. Of greater concern however is that delinquency degradation continued in the 90-day, Foreclosure and REO delinquency categories for the third straight month. Collectively, these three categories grew by an additional $178.8 million in February (an increase of 9% from January, and 18% from December 2007). Furthermore, this degradation took place despite another $86.97 million in liquidations reported for February 2008 (at a low average severity of 20.3%). Liquidation activity however has slowed somewhat amidst the current credit market climate.
Increased delinquency for the more recent vintages remains at the center of our concerns, especially that of 2005 and 2006 vintage transactions. Over 40% of delinquent unpaid balance through February 2008 came from transactions issued in these two years, with nearly 22% of all delinquency found in 2006 transactions. If we extend our review to include the 2007 vintage, an additional 7% of total delinquency is found. We now expect to see continued high delinquency by unpaid balance for these three vintages in the near-term due to aggressive lending practices prevalent in such years, continued through the remainder 2008.
The total unpaid balance for all CMBS pools under review by Realpoint was $871.4 billion in February 2008. The delinquent unpaid balance over the trailing twelve months is shown in Chart 1 below. The delinquency ratio for February 2008 was 0.399%, increased from the prior month and 21% above the 0.329% reported one-year prior in February 2007.
If anyone is interested in obtaining a copy of the entire Realpoint Monthly Delinquency Report that was mentioned in this article, please send me an email and I will provide you with an electronic copy of the report.
Joseph Petro
Managing Director
Realpoint LLC
Joe.petro@realpoint.co...
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Mortgage REITs: Stick with the Seasoned Veterans [view article]
the more obvious question is: why is it advisable to be invested in mortgage reits at all today - given the current situation and the unpleasant prospects of the US economy in general and the US financial system in particular? ReplyEditors
General Discussion on CHC
Is this a buy or a sell? ReplyKind
Investment Teasers: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly [view article]
The hype in the stock marketing industry is unreal and approaches the old saw of the "used car salesman". I receive quite a few "pitches" every day. While I try to skim through all of them, I don't act on many, preferring to pick and choose knowing that my mistakes are at least my own.Debunking the standard fare received can be very entertaining as well as informative. It also helps in getting the reader to think twice and do due diligence before accepting as fact the hype.
Yes, I enjoyed the article. Reply
Try Centerline Holding For a Robust, Double-Digit Yield [view article]
Nice call. ReplyMetzinger
Jim Cramer's Stop Trading! Stock Picks and Comments, March 14 [view article]
I think Cramer is saying that the twelve stocks are "guilty by association" even if that association is tenuous. They seem to be lumped in together with the problem companies. ReplyJim Cramer's Stop Trading! Stock Picks and Comments, March 14 [view article]
Cramer does not make sense.CSE provides various financial products to small and medium-sized businesses in the Health Care Industry.
TMA is a prime jumbo lender Reply