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Tuesday, Aug 272:03 AMGrowth in Chinese industrial profit accelerates
Tuesday, Aug 272:03 AM| Comment!
- Net income at Chinese industrial companies rose 12% on year in July, up from 6.3% in June, providing further evidence that the economy is stabilizing following a two-quarter slowdown in growth and a credit squeeze in June.
- Earnings from power, telecommunications and auto manufacturing contributed to the acceleration in overall profit, although income at coal miners fell.
- The data adds to better-than-expected industrial production and PMI data, as well as a rebound in trade.
- Meanwhile, Yi Gang, a deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, believes that the Fed's tapering may only have a "limited" impact on his country compared with other emerging nations.
- Shares flat.
- ETFs - Stocks: FXI, GXC, PGJ, YAO, FCHI, PEK, CAF, YXI, XPP, FXP, MCHI, YINN, YANG, TCHI, CHXF, KFYP, HAO, ECNS. Bonds: DSUM, CHLC, CHII. Currency: CNY, CYB, FXCH.
Wednesday, Aug 712:22 PMChina's rebalancing efforts get an "F"
Wednesday, Aug 712:22 PM| 1 Comment
- Q2 data "paints a depressing picture of the progress of economic rebalancing in China," says the Peterson Institute's Nicholas Borst, giving the country's efforts an "F."
- Particularly notable on the downside is residential real estate investment now outpacing overall GDP growth by a whopping 12 percentage points. "Given persistent reports of excess housing stock, it seems unlikely that this level of spending is justified by actual demand."
- On the positive side: Growth in the service sector (8.3%) began to outpace that of the industrial sector (7.6%) - a trend if continued would have services eventually occupying a more "normal" share of the overall economy.
- China stock ETFs: FXI, GXC, PGJ, YAO, FCHI, PEK, CAF, YXI, XPP, FXP, MCHI, YINN, YANG, TCHI, CHXF, KFYP.
- Sector ETFs: Real estate (TAO), Retail (CHIQ), Infrastructure (CHXX), Industrials (CHII), Financials (CHIX).
Wednesday, Dec 52012, 7:14 AMShanghai soars 2.9%, with chatter about plans for speeding up the "urbanization" process coming out of a Poiltburo meeting as good an excuse as any for the big move. Industrial firms (CHII) lead, including Sany Heavy Industry +10% and Anhui Conch Cement +4.8%. Financials shares (CHIX) had a big move after Beijing eliminates a rule limiting investment in banks by insurers. |Wednesday, Dec 52012, 7:14 AM| Comment!
Wednesday, Sep 262012, 11:27 PM
Wednesday, Aug 82012, 8:15 AMChina bears like to point to flatlining electricity output as proof of the country's sharp growth slowdown, but what if it's just signaling a shift to a more services-based economy? Suggesting China has gone from Indonesia last year to Switzerland this year is "a little bit of a reach," says Michael Parker, not buying the argument. |Wednesday, Aug 82012, 8:15 AM| 3 Comments
Tuesday, Jul 172012, 3:28 AMProfits at Chinese state-owned enterprises fell 11.6% in H1 to 1.02T yuan ($160B), the Ministry of Finance said late yesterday. Private companies are likely to follow suit. Analysts warn investors should be bracing for a hard landing for Chinese stocks, with a big fall likely in H1 corporate profits and outright losses possible for companies in the materials sector (ETF: CHIM), including steel and petrochemical producers. |Tuesday, Jul 172012, 3:28 AM| Comment!
Friday, Jul 62012, 7:29 AMShanghai bucks yesterday's worldwide sell-off, rising 1% following the (somewhat of a) surprise PBOC rate cut. Industrial companies and developers led the gains, but banks tumbled as part of the PBOC move included allowing lenders more room to compete with one another, likely cutting into the cozy relationships that allowed for easy banking profits. |Friday, Jul 62012, 7:29 AM| Comment!
Thursday, Jul 52012, 2:25 AMChina's Beige Book, a new private survey of around 2,000 executives and bankers, shows retail sales and manufacturing strengthened last quarter, property sales increased, and 80% of retailers expect higher sales in six months, suggesting an economic pick-up not fully captured in China's official statistics. |Thursday, Jul 52012, 2:25 AM| 2 Comments
Thursday, May 312012, 1:25 AMChinese stocks will keep rising, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index poised to add 15% by year-end as slowing inflation gives the government room to loosen monetary policy and allows for bank lending to pick up, according to Beijing Gao Hua Securities Co, Goldman Sachs' China partner. |Thursday, May 312012, 1:25 AM| 3 Comments
Wednesday, May 302012, 10:46 AMWhile the headlines talk about Beijing's resistance to fiscal stimulus, the government approves a proposal allowing significantly greater bond issuance by the Railway Ministry. Investment in railways has plunged this year as the system is plagued with high debt and losses amidst corruption, overbuilding, and other boondoggles. |Wednesday, May 302012, 10:46 AM| Comment!
Thursday, May 242012, 12:18 PMChina's banks may fall short of their 2012 loan targets, say several officials, thanks to a drying-up in demand from their biggest customers - large state-owned firms. Bank loans dove 33% April and the May figures may be worse, with only ¥34B ($5.4B) advanced through May 20 (¥682B was loaned in April). The news seems to have hit stocks and the aussie dollar, off 40 pips in a few minutes. |Thursday, May 242012, 12:18 PM| 4 Comments
Thursday, May 242012, 8:02 AMThe majority of steel mills in northern China have halted production, according to an analyst in the coal-trade business, putting more meat behind an earlier story about iron ore and coking coal buyers attempting to back away from orders. Not surprisingly, electricity producers are seeing their own stockpiles of coal grow due to slumping demand for juice. |Thursday, May 242012, 8:02 AM| 3 Comments
Tuesday, May 82012, 10:02 AMA 41% Q1 plunge in nationwide excavator sales is taking a toll on Sany Heavy Industry - China's largest maker of the equipment - even as it takes market share from the likes of CAT. The company's VP warns the sluggish construction market may force the firm to cut its sales target (+41% Y/Y). |Tuesday, May 82012, 10:02 AM| 6 Comments
Wednesday, Apr 252012, 8:57 AMThe ABB earnings presentation sounds a lot like Caterpillar earnings, where weakness in China is being offset by strength in North America. ABB's order book in China is off 35% Y/Y, up 16% in the U.S. SEB notes the company saying it's uncertain when Chinese demand will recover vs. previously saying it appeared Chinese growth was returning. (earnings) |Wednesday, Apr 252012, 8:57 AM| 3 Comments
Thursday, Apr 122012, 10:08 AMConstruction activity appears to have picked up a bit over the past months in China, according to a Standard Chartered Survey. Yet looking at a chart of sharply rising property inventory, one wonders if that's a good thing. As for 2012's big stimulus - social housing - survey respondents believe little if any of these projects are actually new. |Thursday, Apr 122012, 10:08 AM| Comment!
Tuesday, Mar 272012, 6:59 AMProfits at Chinese industrial companies fell 5.2% Y/Y through the first 2 months of the year, reports the statistics bureau. "Clearly alarming," says economist Chang Jian, of the first drop since 2009. He expects only "measured" policy ease by a government still concerned about perky property. Shanghai fails to participate in the global stock rally, -0.2%. |Tuesday, Mar 272012, 6:59 AM| Comment!