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Wednesday, December 5, 2012, 7:14 AM
Shanghai soars 2.9%, with chatter about plans for speeding up the "urbanization" process coming out of a Poiltburo meeting as good an excuse as any for the big move. Industrial firms (CHII) lead, including Sany Heavy Industry +10% and Anhui Conch Cement +4.8%. Financials shares (CHIX) had a big move after Beijing eliminates a rule limiting investment in banks by insurers.
Comment![Global & FX]
Wednesday, September 26, 2012, 11:27 PM
Profit declines at Chinese industrial companies accelerate in August, falling 6.2% Y/Y after slipping 5.4% in July and 1.7% in June. Profits have declined 3.8% YTD vs. an increase of 28.2% during the same period in 2011.
Comment![Global & FX]
Wednesday, August 8, 2012, 8:15 AM
China bears like to point to flatlining electricity output as proof of the country's sharp growth slowdown, but what if it's just signaling a shift to a more services-based economy? Suggesting China has gone from Indonesia last year to Switzerland this year is "a little bit of a reach," says Michael Parker, not buying the argument.
3 Comments[Global & FX]
Tuesday, July 17, 2012, 3:28 AM
Profits at Chinese state-owned enterprises fell 11.6% in H1 to 1.02T yuan ($160B), the Ministry of Finance said late yesterday. Private companies are likely to follow suit. Analysts warn investors should be bracing for a hard landing for Chinese stocks, with a big fall likely in H1 corporate profits and outright losses possible for companies in the materials sector (ETF: CHIM), including steel and petrochemical producers.
Comment![Global & FX]
Friday, July 6, 2012, 7:29 AM
Shanghai bucks yesterday's worldwide sell-off, rising 1% following the (somewhat of a) surprise PBOC rate cut. Industrial companies and developers led the gains, but banks tumbled as part of the PBOC move included allowing lenders more room to compete with one another, likely cutting into the cozy relationships that allowed for easy banking profits.
Comment![Global & FX]
Thursday, July 5, 2012, 2:25 AM
China's Beige Book, a new private survey of around 2,000 executives and bankers, shows retail sales and manufacturing strengthened last quarter, property sales increased, and 80% of retailers expect higher sales in six months, suggesting an economic pick-up not fully captured in China's official statistics.
2 Comments[Global & FX]
Thursday, May 31, 2012, 1:25 AM
Chinese stocks will keep rising, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index poised to add 15% by year-end as slowing inflation gives the government room to loosen monetary policy and allows for bank lending to pick up, according to Beijing Gao Hua Securities Co, Goldman Sachs' China partner.
3 Comments[Global & FX, Quick Ideas]
Wednesday, May 30, 2012, 10:46 AM
While the headlines talk about Beijing's resistance to fiscal stimulus, the government approves a proposal allowing significantly greater bond issuance by the Railway Ministry. Investment in railways has plunged this year as the system is plagued with high debt and losses amidst corruption, overbuilding, and other boondoggles.
Comment![Global & FX]
Thursday, May 24, 2012, 12:18 PM
China's banks may fall short of their 2012 loan targets, say several officials, thanks to a drying-up in demand from their biggest customers - large state-owned firms. Bank loans dove 33% April and the May figures may be worse, with only ¥34B ($5.4B) advanced through May 20 (¥682B was loaned in April). The news seems to have hit stocks and the aussie dollar, off 40 pips in a few minutes.
4 Comments[Global & FX]
Thursday, May 24, 2012, 8:02 AM
The majority of steel mills in northern China have halted production, according to an analyst in the coal-trade business, putting more meat behind an earlier story about iron ore and coking coal buyers attempting to back away from orders. Not surprisingly, electricity producers are seeing their own stockpiles of coal grow due to slumping demand for juice.
3 Comments[Global & FX]
Tuesday, May 8, 2012, 10:02 AM
A 41% Q1 plunge in nationwide excavator sales is taking a toll on Sany Heavy Industry - China's largest maker of the equipment - even as it takes market share from the likes of CAT. The company's VP warns the sluggish construction market may force the firm to cut its sales target (+41% Y/Y).
6 Comments[Global & FX]
Wednesday, April 25, 2012, 8:57 AM
The ABBearnings presentation sounds a lot like Caterpillar earnings, where weakness in China is being offset by strength in North America. ABB's order book in China is off 35% Y/Y, up 16% in the U.S. SEB notes the company saying it's uncertain when Chinese demand will recover vs. previously saying it appeared Chinese growth was returning. (earnings)
3 Comments[Global & FX]
Thursday, April 12, 2012, 10:08 AM
Construction activity appears to have picked up a bit over the past months in China, according to a Standard Chartered Survey. Yet looking at a chart of sharply rising property inventory, one wonders if that's a good thing. As for 2012's big stimulus - social housing - survey respondents believe little if any of these projects are actually new.
Comment![Global & FX]
Tuesday, March 27, 2012, 6:59 AM
Profits at Chinese industrial companies fell 5.2% Y/Y through the first 2 months of the year, reports the statistics bureau. "Clearly alarming," says economist Chang Jian, of the first drop since 2009. He expects only "measured" policy ease by a government still concerned about perky property. Shanghai fails to participate in the global stock rally, -0.2%.
Comment![Global & FX]
Wednesday, February 22, 2012, 9:50 AM
Train manufacturer China CNR sets a right issue in Shanghai, hoping to raise up to $1.13B, about 35% less than an earlier target as investors have soured on the industry in the wake of July's deadly crash and the rail ministry's mountain of debt. Last month, CNR received a $320M cash injection from the finance ministry.
Comment![Global & FX]
Sunday, January 1, 2012, 7:58 AM
China's official December PMI rises to 50.3, beating estimates of 49.1 and last month's 49.0. The "festival effects" of the western New Year and upcoming Chinese celebrations helped boost the gauge, says the statistics bureau in a statement. HSBC's PMI also rose in December, but remained in contractionary territory at 48.7.
2 Comments[Global & FX]