C&D Technologies Inc. (CHP)

All Comments on CHP

  • commenter
    John
    Petersen
    Oct 14 01:49 AM
    My Website
    Alternative Energy Storage and Blood in the Streets [view article]
    One article out of 13 has provided detail on why I think Axion is a solid investment opportunity. The other 12 have focused on the industry, its key players and global themes that impact everyone in the sector. My goal is to develop general market awareness and better explain the opportunities, challenges and risks of the battery sector. If I'm lucky, I may even draw the attention of an upstart battery entrepreneur with a good idea who needs a lawyer that understands his business.

    Stock should be bought and sold based on a thorough understanding of detailed disclosure documents. Blogs like this one can help investors narrow the number of documents they need to wade through, but I'd be horrified if I thought people were buying or selling anything based on a sentence or two that I wrote.     Reply
  • commenter
    paultaut
    Oct 13 11:41 PM
    Alternative Energy Storage and Blood in the Streets [view article]
    If you love a good story, then be forewarned that others may think of the constant "My stock is the Best stock", as just another story by someone who has a vested interest in getting others to participate.

    Batteries are a Materials based business and as such should move inversely to basic materials. Unfortunately, Batteries are also an Alt. Energy business which moves in tandem with the cost of energy. A recessionary environment reduces the need for energy and as the number of vehicles produced drops so do the number of batteries used, inventories increase and prices for the traditional battery drop. The cost saving has to be upfront to the car maker in this kind of competitive environment.

    There are always 2 sides to any "good" story. I have yet to see anything about the other side. The one involving Cash Burn or the total lack of Insider Buying at these depressed prices or the selling involving a Beneficial Owner who has either Sold on the Open Market or Disposed of 945,000 shares at less than Open Market prices.

    I said some time ago that I would not even consider AXPW unless it broke above $2 on heavy volume. I do not own the stock nor do I expect to own it. Heck, its way too low to short. Buffett is certainly not interested and neither are any of the Foreign auto makers who have made commitments to other Technologies most of which involve lithium.

    Oh, BTW, Toyota is introducing Hybrids with roof installed solar panels.

    A depression may have been avoided, the Recession is still with us and it may be deep.
    Reply
  • commenter
    John
    Petersen
    Oct 13 07:06 PM
    My Website
    Alternative Energy Storage and Blood in the Streets [view article]
    May: There is nothing I would like better than to be wrong about Li-ion technology and I agree that gas-lith has much greater potential than straight EV. But I've been burned so often by the hot I blow on the cold. I just have a hard time seeing the reasonableness of revenue free companies in the Li-ion space carrying market valuations that exceed time proven lead-acid performers with hundreds of millions in sales. I love a good story, but every time I've seen a good story get too far in front of the business I've seen investors suffer.

    This is a great sector that's ripe with opportunity. But we are not likely to see the performance gains and price declines in batteries that we see in IT because batteries are a materials based business rather than a knowledge based business.

    The far future tech that has me personally slathering is the founder of Swatch who is working to integrate solar and hydrogen fuel cells. But that's a long way from being a business.     Reply
  • commenter
    Mayascribe
    Oct 13 05:48 PM
    Alternative Energy Storage and Blood in the Streets [view article]
    John: Both of us are guilty in making it personal, some of which made me out loud laugh in the friendliest way possible. Frankly, although I have been following this sector with salivating intentions since last October, I have to, in part, thank you for your weekly articles that kept mentioning Exide, in and amongst all the other stocks.

    What I have been doing in this forum is to try to let others know a differing opinion exists, with a different investment angle. I absolutely believe that lithium batteries will make large in roads in this country in the coming years. But, this would be more in a gas/lith powered automobile, as well as fleet vehicles. These types of vehicles require very little infrastructure change. Where as, the plug in vehicles going large would require a huge infrastructure change...which, I believe will happen, but not likely in the next 15 years, and by then lithium likely will be cost prohibitive; no doubt in this mind by then something else will be coming forth.

    Why? Because most everything that moves will be electrically powered, whether from solar, wind, natural gas, geothermal, tidal, nuclear, or, yes from those dirty coal and oil companies.

    One thing I know we both agree on is that this sector is going to be very interesting from a growth standpoint here forward.

    P.S. I don't own any HEV, right now. That should make you smile!

    Reply
  • commenter
    John
    Petersen
    Oct 13 02:02 PM
    My Website
    Alternative Energy Storage and Blood in the Streets [view article]
    My business is an uncanny leading indicator for the stock market and my cash flow always goes into the tank 6 to 9 months before the market does. With big investments in Axion and a biodiesel company, I don't have a lot of free cash for new investments. If I did, I'd be buying Exide, Enersys, C&D, Ultralife, China BAK and Hong Kong Highpower with both hands.

    For better or worse, the general market sentiment on Li-ion is overdone. It's a great technology for a lot of applications, but there is no battery technology that makes economic sense in a pure electric vehicle. That's why I keep pointing to Pickens as the only rational transportation choice.

    In a comment dated October 4th I said:

    "So even the most optimistic price estimates I've seen takes you to about $17,500 for the batteries in a small bare bones EV. Joe 6 pack will never be able to pay that price and Joe Mercedes wants his luxury. So the only real buyer is Joe Celebrity who can and will spend $50,000 for a spartan but green status symbol."

    I have also previously said that the $17,500 estimate that people keep throwing around is inconsistent with the pricing I've seen out of the UK which has the Think City at 20,000 pounds with another couple hundred pounds a month for the battery.

    Ener1 is deliberately avoiding talk of pricing so that they can stay competitive with A123 which lays out $1.53 per watt hour in cost of sales. Until I see something contrary in a public release, I don't believe the $17,500 number because it is so far out of line with competitors.

    Buffett is talking about making the whole thing in China with local labor. He may be able to pull off a product that works. Time will tell. You are never going to see Chinese economies of scale in Indianapolis.

    While I got some Axion stock for work, I also have a pile of my own cash invested. Check out my Forms 3 and 4.

    In the final analysis you and I agree on everything except two Li-ion companies that I think are grossly overpriced. But I wouldn't expect you or anyone else to buy or sell a stock based on my opinion. Do your homework and feel free to disagree. But let's not make this personal.     Reply
  • commenter
    Mayascribe
    Oct 13 01:19 PM
    Alternative Energy Storage and Blood in the Streets [view article]
    What I don't get is that you ONLY own Axiom, yet you have for two months plus been writing that the energy storage sector will be one of the hottest sectors in the coming months and years to invest in.

    Is this because you're broke? Or, are you just waiting to make your move after the "bottom" hits. Well, it already hit for Exide (XIDE). I got in @ 4.26/share last Thursday. And I'm in it for the long haul (i.e. no adrenalin junkie day trading stuff on this stock).

    Further, your insinuation about the rainbow (in your mind, I'm sure...) "morons" believe that all cars will have lithium ion batteries within the near future (half decade). I highly doubt any of your readers believe this as much as I believed what you wrote about a month and a half ago about a $100,000 car wrapped around a $75.000 lith battery. I guess you failed to acknowledge who it was that told you the Ener1 600 pound lith battery is going to cost about $17,500. Yet, in a recent article you did mention this price.

    And, just as the price of that "imaginary" plug-in battery has dropped so does my continuing belief that you are NOT to be relied upon for any judgement concerning this industry. And, now I have Warren Buffet on my side! I'm intrigued how you intimated that lith cars will work in China, and not here in the USA!

    I completely marvel that in this soon-to-be rocket sector you've taken no other position then on the stock of which, I'm guessing, you mostly own because you did your legal work in exchange for Axiom shares.

    The real crux of this sector, investing wise, is that there are going to be many stocks that move up, quickly, no matter who gets elected. That includes lead acid, as well as lithium and, I'm hoping, Beacon Power, too.

    I'm right now easing in for the long term. I suggest you do the same before the multiples disappear.

    Reply
  • commenter
    John
    Petersen
    Oct 13 10:04 AM
    My Website
    Alternative Energy Storage and Blood in the Streets [view article]
    The summary of Axion's most recent prospectus says:

    "Our New Castle, Pennsylvania facility has a permitted manufacturing capacity of 3,000 batteries per day and has operational production lines for both sealed and flooded lead-acid batteries. The ability to produce both types of batteries in a variety of sizes enables us to target our excess capacity at high-margin products which experience smaller levels of demand compared to conventional battery products, such as deep cycle industrial batteries, classic and racing automobile batteries and other products that support specialized niche markets. Over the next 18 to 24 months, we plan to exploit the manufacturing capacity deficit in the lead-acid battery industry by producing these high margin lead-acid products while we complete development of our PbC technology. As additional capacity comes on-line in the broader industry, we plan to transition our manufacturing focus from lead-acid products to our reduced-lead, enhanced-performance PbC products."

    Unless you are willing to assume that there will be no standard LAB sales, Axion will not run out of cash in mid-2009.

    Given my past relationship with Axion, it would be very dangerous for me to speak in detail about the future. My only goal in this series of articles is to help raise the visibility of a critical sector and the key players in that sector.     Reply
  • commenter
    paultaut
    Oct 13 09:32 AM
    Alternative Energy Storage and Blood in the Streets [view article]
    After AXPW runs out of cash in mid 2009, what will their alternatives be?

    The amount of the shares in the float is increasing as insiders divest, short sellers may be in there but Mega has either sold or divested almost a million shares most to below market buyers.

    A return to "normal" conditions will not include loans to startups or new technologies. What grants can it go after?

    I'm curious.     Reply
  • commenter
    John
    Petersen
    Oct 08 11:32 AM
    My Website
    Opportunities in Energy Storage Stocks [view article]
    APOLOGY AND CORRECTION

    Thank you for bringing my incorrect assertion that ZBB was late in its SEC reports to my attention. While I don't usually make this kind of error, I did in this case and I owe ZBB and its investors an apology.

    A review of ZBB's recent Form 10-K shows that the company has a financial solid position. Moreover, everything I've read to date indicates that flow batteries like ZBBs are the only game in town for small scale diurnal storage. Given ZBB's financial strength, cost advantages to users, tax credit eligibility in solar installations and dominant position in what I believe will be a critical storage niche, I think ZBB belongs in my transition manufacturer's class and is one of the better values in the class.     Reply
  • commenter
    Joanne
    Verkuilen
    Oct 08 10:56 AM
    My Website
    Opportunities in Energy Storage Stocks [view article]
    John: I have just been made aware of the reference herein to ZBB and the fact that they were late in filing their June 30th 10-Q. Please be aware that their year-end is June 30th, and they have since filed their 10-K without any delay. Please amend the article herein so there is no confusion.
    By the way, I do appreciate your intelligent articles on the energy storage sector. They are very insightful and helpful to the investment community. Best regards, Joanne     Reply
  • commenter
    John
    Petersen
    Oct 07 11:23 AM
    My Website
    Energy Storage Opportunities vs. Irrational Expectations [view article]
    I'm not a chemist or privy to inside technical information, but I would love to hear an explanation of how ALTI's proposed lithium titanate battery is different from Toshiba's existing lithium titanate battery. See:

    www.greencarcongress.c...
     Reply
  • commenter
    wncwildbill
    Oct 07 10:43 AM
    Energy Storage Opportunities vs. Irrational Expectations [view article]
    Good points! Why does the investing community seem to think that ALTI's Lithium titanate oxide deal is "just another lithium battery"?


    On Sep 16 10:13 PM jprovinc wrote:

    > John,
    > Given the current financial crisis, did you really have to go any
    > further than "Mr Market has killed the electric car.." I hope it's
    > nothing more than a flesh wound ,'ala Monty Python. Operating capital
    > is going to be a critical element for successful market introduction.
    > A123's IPO might now be adversely affected. In the mean time, it
    > will be a fight for survival for all participants. I am biased toward
    > the unique LiTitanate chemistries of ALTI and HEV(EnerDel). Lithium
    > Titanate does not form an SEI membrane as do other LiIon chemistries
    > and this offers less internal resistance.+++ DD. EnerDel has a Hard
    > Carbon (HC) anode in its Think EV battery pack. AXPW(Axion)'s hard
    > carbon anode sounds promising too. I'll be looking forward to your
    > next article and thank you for the current chart. I'll try to post
    > an intro link of HEV
    > www.nextenergynews.com...
    >
    > Good luck and health to all.     Reply
  • commenter
    badfish2
    Oct 01 11:40 AM
    Energy Storage Stocks: Performance, Cost and Bell Shaped Curves [view article]
    This article is sad! The author either has not done his homework or ignores the facts to make his point. The emerging battery technologies make huge advances over the old toxic goop batteries that the author touts. Let him be stuck in the past; he will have lousy batteries and an under performing portfolio. By the way, he missed one of the best breakthrough companies altogether, Mphase. Check it out! Reply
  • commenter
    jprovinc
    Sep 29 08:11 PM
    Energy Storage Opportunities After the Market Carnage [view article]
    The USA LiIon segment got a leg up today from someone. I'm thinking that the $25 billion appropriation by congress sparked some interest. Stipulations regarding funding included advanced technology and MPG. Re-tooling for new BEV's would 'fit the bill'. Reply
  • commenter
    John
    Petersen
    Sep 26 12:56 AM
    My Website
    Energy Storage Opportunities After the Market Carnage [view article]
    The 75% figure comes from a May 2008 Energy Storage Industry Report prepared by Merriman Curhan Ford. The author of the report is Craig E. Irwin, their Vice President of Energy Storage & Efficiency.

    I saw the reports of Mr. Grassheimer's statements when he made them. But without a whole lot of backup information on where the raw materials will come from and why the prices will decline, I have a hard time accepting everything that's said as gospel. I guess it comes from too many years of dealing with small companies that have high hopes for cost reductions that don't materialize.

    The global trends for commodity prices have been sharply higher for several years and Jim Rogers tells us we haven't seen anything yet. The reports I've read on lithium resources say that once we burn through the South American resources, more processing will be required to get to a useful raw material. Between global trends in commodity prices and the fact that more processing is usually more expensive, I have a hard time believing that materials costs will fall sharply.     Reply
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