Jan. 9, 2014, 12:59 PM
- Calix's Q4 warning, which has come in the wake of warnings (I, II) from fellow telecom equipment suppliers Cyan (CYNI -2.4%) and Procera (PKT -2.6%), has sparked a general selloff in telecom equipment and component/chip names. A Deutsche downgrade of Alcatel-Lucent, one of the best-performing names in the space in 2013, could also be playing a role.
- Calix, Cyan, and Procera all have considerable exposure to U.S. carriers not named AT&T or Verizon. While Calix didn't mention which region(s) are responsible for its warning, Cyan blamed an 88% Q/Q drop in sales to U.S. telco/top customer Windstream, and Procera blamed soft demand from U.S. cable providers.
- Notable decliners: CSCO -1.1% JDSU -5.2%. ADTN -5.1% (competes with Calix). FNSR -4.2% (just announced an acquisition). INFN -2.9%. AMCC -2.5%. CIEN -2.4%. BSFT -6.1%. SONS -2.1%.
- The group sold off a month ago after Cisco cut its long-term growth outlook.
Dec. 30, 2013, 7:46 PM
- As part of its major Domain 2.0 infrastructure project, AT&T (T) has sent a request for information (RFI) to equipment suppliers asking them to submit ideas and architectures that support software-defined networking (SDN) - the shifting of network intelligence to software-based controllers that interact with switches/routers.
- MKM's Michael Genovese predicts AT&T's RFI will likely "have significant long-term consequences" for the telecom equipment industry. He sees the impact being "most negative" for Cisco (CSCO), and a positive for Ciena (CIEN), F5 (FFIV), Finisar (FNSR), and early data center SDN software leader VMware (VMW, EMC)
- AT&T, like others, is enthusiastic about SDN's potential to lower management costs, improve network efficiency, speed the provisioning of new services, and allow "white box" switches/routers to take the place of proprietary hardware.
- The last feature has many Cisco investors nervous, given its potential to increase competition and pressure margins. John Chambers has declared white box hardware (already embraced by many Web/cloud companies) to be a major long-term threat.
- Cisco is counting on its powerful Insieme hardware/software and ACI architecture (meant to adapt to the needs of apps/services) to help neutralize the SDN threat. But Genovese thinks ACI "seems too complex and proprietary compared to more white box-oriented architectures."
- Regarding VMware, Genovese believes the company's NSX platform (combines SDN with other features) has "a strong chance of being selected as the Data Center virtualization platform." Strong uptake is expected for NSX, which has won the support of many Cisco rivals, starting in 2015. Major carrier SDN adoption is expected to arrive later.
Dec. 20, 2013, 1:34 PM
- FBR's Scott Thompson has started coverage on Infinera (INFN +1.6%) with an Outperform and $12.50 PT. He expects the optical networking space to "experience stronger performance in 2014 versus 2013" thanks to several catalysts he expects will "one of the strongest optical cycles the industry has seen in more than two decades."
- Thompson also reiterates an argument he made in a Dec. 4 note on Ciena (CIEN +2.3%): That telecom networks are migrating towards architectures that offer greater optical layer intelligence/flexibility, and in doing so require less money to be spent on switches/routers.
- Thompson thinks this architecture shift is partly responsible for the recent weakness seen in Cisco's (CSCO +0.6%) service provider sales.
- As for Infinera, a major player in the 100G optical transmission space, Thompson declares the company to have the strongest exposure to the optical segments where "the shift will be the most pronounced."
- In addition to Infinera and Ciena, a couple other optical networking hardware vendors are doing well on a good day for tech, as are some component suppliers. CYNI +4.3%. AFOP +5.9%. OPLK +2.8%. OCLR +2.4%. ADTN +1.9%.
Dec. 13, 2013, 9:38 AM
- Amazon (AMZN +1.3%) has been upgraded to Strong Buy by ISI.
- Stratasys (SSYS +2.5%) has been started at Overweight by Stephens.
- Ciena (CIEN +1.5%) has been upgraded to Outperform by BMO a day after posting mixed FQ4 results and slightly disappointing FQ1 revenue guidance (midpoint below consensus).
- Ubiquiti (UBNT +1.1%) has been started at Outperform by Wells Fargo.
- Procera (PKT +2.1%) has been started at Buy by D.A. Davidson.
- China Mobile Games (CMGE +3%) has been started at Buy by Brean.
Dec. 12, 2013, 7:31 AM
- Ciena (CIEN) tumbles 11.5% premarket after a big miss on FQ4 results - reporting adjusted EPS of $0.16 per share vs. expectations of $0.24.
- Adjusted gross margin of 40.8% compares to 43.6% the previous quarter. Adjusted operating margin of 4.7% falls from 8.2% the previous quarter. Operating expenses rose to $210.5M from $190.4M.
- FQ1 revenue guidance of $515M-$545M is inline with Street expectations.
- The company will swap its Nasdaq (NDAQ) listing for one on the NYSE (ICE). The stock symbol will remain the same.
- FQ4 results, press release
- CC at 8:30 ET
Dec. 12, 2013, 7:01 AM
Dec. 12, 2013, 12:05 AM
Dec. 11, 2013, 5:30 PM
Dec. 5, 2013, 7:01 PM
- Ciena (CIEN) +1.5% AH and Alliance Fiber (AFOP) +1.1% after Finisar beat FQ2 estimates and issued strong FQ3 guidance.
- Ciena, which reports on the morning of Dec. 12, is now up 10% from Tuesday's close, thanks in large part to an FBR note predicting a strong report and arguing the company will benefit from a long-term trend towards shifting more network intelligence to the optical layer (as compared with the switching/routing layer).
Dec. 4, 2013, 2:59 PM
- FBR's Scott Thompson thinks Ciena (CIEN +7%) will deliver a beat-and-raise FQ4 report on Dec. 12, and sees the telecom equipment vendor benefiting from carrier adoption of network architectures that feature "more intelligence and flexibility at the optical layer."
- Thompson sees carriers building more advanced metro optical networks, replete with data centers that enable services such as content caching, app hosting, and advanced mobile messaging. He points to a recent optical switching deal between Verizon and Ciena as an example of how the latter benefits from this trend, and sees a similar deal with AT&T arriving soon.
- At the same time, he cautions optical gross margins "could be under pressure," thanks to aggressive pricing from Infinera (INFN +2%), lengthy deployment times, and the adoption of software-defined networking controllers (CYNI is among the companies providing them) that remove some intelligence from the optical layer.
- Ciena flew higher three months ago following its FQ3 report. The company reported solid demand for its integrated Ethernet switching/optical networking hardware, which now accounts for 56% of revenue.
- Infinera is following Ciena higher, and so are Finisar (FNSR +5.2%), JDS Uniphase (JDSU +3.1%), Fabrinet (FN +1.8%), and AppliedMicro (AMCC +3.9%).
Nov. 14, 2013, 10:13 AM
- The list of enterprise hardware/software, telecom equipment, and component/chip suppliers selling off (previous) due to Cisco's poor guidance and order data now includes Oracle (ORCL -2.4%), EZchip (EZCH -6.1%), Riverbed (RVBD -6%, shot higher yesterday on M&A hopes), NeoPhotonics (NPTN -6.6%), Ixia (XXIA -4.7%), Oclaro (OCLR -4%), Procera (PKT -2.3%), and Alliance Fiber (AFOP -3.8%).
- Cisco's weak service provider (-13% Y/Y) and emerging markets (-12%) orders are worrying investors in peers/suppliers, particularly given some peers (I, II) have also reported of soft carrier and/or EM demand. John Chambers' admission the NSA spying scandal has affected sales in China (orders -18%) also isn't going over well.
- However, many on the sell-side argue a big portion of Cisco's problems are tied to company-specific product issues.
- H-P (HPQ -5.6%), which has plenty of Chinese exposure, has added considerably to yesterday's AH losses, and so have Ciena (CIEN -5.3%) and Finisar (FNSR -10%). H-P's FQ4 report is due on Nov. 26, and Ciena's FQ4 report arrives on Dec. 12.
Nov. 13, 2013, 8:34 PM
- Cisco's (CSCO) dispiriting Jan. quarter guidance and Oct. quarter order data has produced an AH selloff in enterprise IT and telecom equipment names, as well as a couple of the companies supplying them. NetApp's below-consensus guidance might not be helping either.
- HPQ -2.1% AH. IBM -1.1%. ALU -2%. FFIV -1.9%. CIEN -0.9%. CAVM -3%. BRCM -1.3%.
- Cisco's slumping FQ1 service provider (-13% Y/Y) and emerging markets (-12%) orders are bound to fuel concerns about carrier capex and macro trends. At the same time, it's worth noting Juniper and Alcatel-Lucent have been seeing better router sales to carriers (though not to Asia), and that Huawei has been doing better in emerging markets.
- The rest of Cisco's order data for major regions and customer groups was relatively better, but not exactly encouraging. Americas orders -2%, EMEA -4%, Asia-Pac (hurt by emerging markets weakness) -9%. Enterprise orders +2%, commercial (SMBs) +1%, public sector -1%.
- Switch sales (31% of revenue) rose 3% Y/Y, while routers (17% of revenue) fell 1%. Collaboration rose 1%, and service provider video fell 14% due to set-top weakness. Cisco's ASR 9000 edge router line, which EZchip (EZCH) supplies network processors for, grew 20% in FQ1 vs. 43% in FQ4.
- Data center (UCS servers) had another strong quarter, growing 44%, but still only accounts for 5% of revenue. Wireless (dominated by Wi-Fi gear) grew only 8% after growing 32% in FQ4 (could be a negative for ARUN and RKUS).
- John Chambers was asked on the CC (transcript) if the NSA spying uproar was affecting Cisco. He admitted it's a problem in China, but denied it was a major issue elsewhere.
Oct. 30, 2013, 1:19 PM
- Several telecom equipment vendors and component suppliers are selling off in sympathy with Calix (CALX -22.7%) and Cyan (CYNI -31.8%), each of which is crashing due to the poor Q4 guidance (I, II) provided with its Q3 results. Both companies are heavily dependent on U.S. telco spending.
- Calix blamed its guidance on soft demand from tier-2 and tier-3 carriers, while Cyan blamed "cautious order patterns" caused by macro issues. On its CC (transcript), the company noted orders from top customer Windstream will be "substantially down compared to prior quarters."
- Notable decliners include Finisar (FNSR -7.3%), JDS Uniphase (JDSU -3%), Ruckus (RKUS -6.6%), Applied Micro (AMCC -3.8%), Procera (PKT -4.1%), Allot (ALLT -3.8%), Ciena (CIEN -2.7%), and Alliance Fiber (AFOP -7.7%). JDS and Ruckus report after the bell; Allot and Procera rallied yesterday in response to the former's Q3 report.
- Several industry names sold off last Thursday due to Infinera's soft Q4 guidance. Infinera said at the time it doesn't "expect significant budget flush or year-end money" from carriers.
Oct. 24, 2013, 11:44 AM
- Though its Q3 results beat estimates, Infinera (INFN -9.4%) guided on its CC (transcript) for Q4 revenue of $130M-$140M and EPS of breakeven to -$0.04, below a consensus of $141.1M and $0.03. Gross margin is expected to fall back to ~40% after rising to 49% in Q3 (+1000 bps Q/Q and Y/Y).
- While Infinera expects to benefit from "a number of significant new wins and deployments" in Q4, the company doesn't "expect significant budget flush or year-end money" from carriers.
- Moreover, while Infinera has won a number of new deals - five new purchase commitments were scored for its DTN-X optical transmission platform - deal timing "remains challenging because of [Infinera's] short lead times and the strategic nature of many of these customer decisions."
- Ciena (CIEN -7.3%) is selling off on the guidance and commentary, as are many optical component suppliers. Ericsson's numbers might not be helping either. CIEN -7.6%. FNSR -7.2%. JDSU -3.4%. NPTN -2.4%. OCLR -2.3%. AFOP -3.2%.
- Infinera also disclosed CFO Ita Brennan is resigning, effective Feb. 28, 2014, to work for a startup. The company says it will start a search for a replacement.
Oct. 23, 2013, 2:23 PM
- The soft Q4 top-line guidance provided with Juniper's (JNPR -5.9%) Q3 beat has led shares to fall below $20. Several peers are also off on a down day for tech: FFIV -4.3% (reporting after the close). DRWI -3.9%. PKT -2.8%. RKUS -2.6%. CIEN -2.4%. RVBD -2.2%.
- On its CC, Juniper attributed its guidance to U.S. federal weakness caused in part by the government shutdown, and called the macro environment "dynamic." The company also disclosed it's cutting another 280 jobs (~3% of its workforce) in Q4, and that it's in the "later stages" of its search for a replacement for departing CEO Kevin Johnson.
- Some of the job cuts are related to Juniper's decision to kill off its MobileNext 3G/4G infrastructure software line.
- The sell-side is nervous about declining enterprise sales, caused in large part by security share losses. Juniper promises a resumption of security growth in 2014; favorable comps should make that easier.
- Carrier routers continue to be a bright spot: MX series edge router sales rose 15% Q/Q, and core router sales 11% Q/Q. Both Cisco and Juniper have been seeing strong edge router demand in recent quarters.
- Juniper also states it's seeing healthy carrier demand in all three major geographies. However, Americas demand is generally stronger than EMEA and Asia-Pac demand.
Oct. 21, 2013, 10:55 AM
- Ciena (CIEN +2.1%) is rallying after struggling telecom equipment rival Tellabs announced it's being acquired for $891M by investment firm Marlin Equity.
- Ciena's market cap ($2.85B) is considerably larger than Tellabs', and (unlike Tellabs) the company has been taking share in recent quarters rather than losing it.
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