Though its Q3 results beat estimates, Infinera (INFN -9.4%) guided on its CC (transcript) for Q4 revenue of $130M-$140M and EPS of breakeven to -$0.04, below a consensus of $141.1M and $0.03. Gross margin is expected to fall back to ~40% after rising to 49% in Q3 (+1000 bps Q/Q and Y/Y).
While Infinera expects to benefit from "a number of significant new wins and deployments" in Q4, the company doesn't "expect significant budget flush or year-end money" from carriers.
Moreover, while Infinera has won a number of new deals - five new purchase commitments were scored for its DTN-X optical transmission platform - deal timing "remains challenging because of [Infinera's] short lead times and the strategic nature of many of these customer decisions."
The soft Q4 top-line guidance provided with Juniper's (JNPR -5.9%) Q3 beat has led shares to fall below $20. Several peers are also off on a down day for tech: FFIV -4.3% (reporting after the close). DRWI -3.9%. PKT -2.8%. RKUS -2.6%. CIEN -2.4%. RVBD -2.2%.
On its CC, Juniper attributed its guidance to U.S. federal weakness caused in part by the government shutdown, and called the macro environment "dynamic." The company also disclosed it's cutting another 280 jobs (~3% of its workforce) in Q4, and that it's in the "later stages" of its search for a replacement for departing CEO Kevin Johnson.
Some of the job cuts are related to Juniper's decision to kill off its MobileNext 3G/4G infrastructure software line.
The sell-side is nervous about declining enterprise sales, caused in large part by security share losses. Juniper promises a resumption of security growth in 2014; favorable comps should make that easier.
Carrier routers continue to be a bright spot: MX series edge router sales rose 15% Q/Q, and core router sales 11% Q/Q. Both Cisco and Juniper have been seeing strong edge router demand in recent quarters.
Juniper also states it's seeing healthy carrier demand in all three major geographies. However, Americas demand is generally stronger than EMEA and Asia-Pac demand.
Adtran (ADTN -13.3%) guides on its Q3 CC for Q4 revenue to drop by a high single-digit to low-teen percentage Q/Q; that's worse than a consensus for a 7% decline.
Shares have nosedived on the guidance after trading higher earlier today in response to the telecom equipment vendor's Q3 beat.
Several other telecom equipment firms are also seeing sizable declines on a down day for tech, as are some component/chip suppliers. CIEN -4.3%. JDSU -3.9%. FNSR -4.5%. JNPR -2.8%. AMCC -3.8%. DRWI -4.7%. RVBD -3.3%.
Ciena (CIEN) expects FQ4 revenue of $550M-$580M, mostly above a $551.4M consensus.
Sales of integrated Ethernet switching/optical networking gear (Converged Packet Optical) rose 3% Q/Q and 23% Y/Y in FQ3, and made up 56% of revenue. That could be a positive for Cyan (CYNI - previous).
Ethernet switch sales (packet networking) +14% Q/Q and +104% Y/Y, and now 11% of revenue. Optical transport hardware +15% Q/Q but -26% Y/Y, and 12% of revenue. Software/services +7% Q/Q and +1% Y/Y, and 20% of revenue.
As Cisco and Juniper can vouch, demand for metro/edge networking hardware (such as Ciena's converged packet optical gear and Ethernet switches) has been strong lately.
Gross margin was 43.6%, +110 bps Q/Q and +400 bps Y/Y, and reversing FQ2's Q/Q decline. It's expected to be in the low-40s in FQ4. Opex -3.5% Q/Q and only +8% Y/Y, op. margin jumped to 8.2% from 3.7% in FQ2.
International customers made up 37% of revenue vs. 43% in FQ2. Two customers (possibly AT&T/Verizon) accounted for 31.8% of revenue, nearly even with FQ2.
Infinera (INFN) +6.9%, JDS Uniphase (JDSU) +2.5% and Finisar (FNSR) +2.8% in sympathy.
Finisar (FNSR) +8.9% AH following its FQ4 beat. FQ1 guidance is for revenue of revenue of $245M-$260M and EPS of $0.22-$0.26, mostly above a consensus of $248.9M and $0.20. A 150 bps Q/Q increase in gross margin to 32.2%, caused by a favorable mix, contributed to the EPS beat. Finisar says it's seeing strong demand for 10G/100G Ethernet components for datacom gear - 10G is being rapidly adopted in data centers, and some firms are starting to embrace 100G. Opex +4% Y/Y. a little above rev. growth of 2%. JDSU +3%, NPTN +4.3%, and CIEN +1% in sympathy. FN, OCLR, and OPLK could also rally. CC at 5PM ET (webcast). (PR)
Ciena (CIEN) +11.9% thanks to its FQ2 beat, which follows months of investor fretting over telecom capex. FQ3 guidance is for revenue of $515M-$545M, above a $509.5M consensus. Ciena sacrificed margins a bit - while revenue rose 12% Q/Q, gross margin fell 210 bps to 42.5% - but given the size of its revenue beat, investors don't mind. Sales of integrated Ethernet/optical networking hardware (Ciena is a leader here and recently announced a refresh) +10% Y/Y and 57% of revenue. Ethernet switches +91% and now 11% of revenue; optical networking -32%, software/services +3%. Two customers (AT&T/Verizon?) made up 31% of sales. INFN +6.7%. JDSU +5.1%. FNSR +5.9%. JNPR +2.5%. ALU +4.2%. SONS +3.8%. (PR)
Cisco (CSCO) guides on FQ3 call (webcast) for FQ4 EPS of $0.50-$0.52 and revenue growth of 4%-7%, which compares with a consensus of $0.51 and 6.9%. Revenue growth will take a 1% hit from the Linksys sale. Gross margin is expected to drop to 61%-62% from FQ3's 63%. Shares +7.9% AH. JNPR +1.6%. BRCD +1.1% CIEN +1.5%.
A Q1 beat and strong 2013 guidance lead Infinera (INFN +22.8%) to surge to 52-week highs. Industry peers are up in sympathy, a day after many declined thanks to AT&T: CIEN +3%. FNSR +2.8%. JDSU +1.5%. ADTN +2.2%. CALX +1.5%. On its earnings call, Infinera guided for Q2 revenue of $130M-$140M and EPS of -$0.04 to $0.01, above a consensus of $124.3M and -$0.05. Gross margin (an issue going in) is expected to rise to 37%-39% from Q1's 36%. 2013 revenue growth is now pegged at the the high end of a guidance range of 10%-20% (consensus is 17%). Purchase commitments for the advanced DTN-X optical transmission system grew by 6 to 27. Needham has upgraded shares to Buy.