The soft Q4 top-line guidance provided with Juniper's (JNPR -5.9%) Q3 beat has led shares to fall below $20. Several peers are also off on a down day for tech: FFIV -4.3% (reporting after the close). DRWI -3.9%. PKT -2.8%. RKUS -2.6%. CIEN -2.4%. RVBD -2.2%.
On its CC, Juniper attributed its guidance to U.S. federal weakness caused in part by the government shutdown, and called the macro environment "dynamic." The company also disclosed it's cutting another 280 jobs (~3% of its workforce) in Q4, and that it's in the "later stages" of its search for a replacement for departing CEO Kevin Johnson.
Some of the job cuts are related to Juniper's decision to kill off its MobileNext 3G/4G infrastructure software line.
The sell-side is nervous about declining enterprise sales, caused in large part by security share losses. Juniper promises a resumption of security growth in 2014; favorable comps should make that easier.
Carrier routers continue to be a bright spot: MX series edge router sales rose 15% Q/Q, and core router sales 11% Q/Q. Both Cisco and Juniper have been seeing strong edge router demand in recent quarters.
Juniper also states it's seeing healthy carrier demand in all three major geographies. However, Americas demand is generally stronger than EMEA and Asia-Pac demand.
Adtran (ADTN -13.3%) guides on its Q3 CC for Q4 revenue to drop by a high single-digit to low-teen percentage Q/Q; that's worse than a consensus for a 7% decline.
Shares have nosedived on the guidance after trading higher earlier today in response to the telecom equipment vendor's Q3 beat.
Several other telecom equipment firms are also seeing sizable declines on a down day for tech, as are some component/chip suppliers. CIEN -4.3%. JDSU -3.9%. FNSR -4.5%. JNPR -2.8%. AMCC -3.8%. DRWI -4.7%. RVBD -3.3%.
Equipment vendors Adtran (ADTN +10.1%), Ruckus (RKUS +4.5%), Aruba (ARUN +2.5%), Ericsson (ERIC +2.2%), Procera (PKT +2.1%) and Calix (CALX +2.3%), and component/chip suppliers Oplink (OPLK +4.1%), NeoPhotonics (NPTN +2.3%), Alliance Fiber (AFOP +3.1%), AppliedMicro (AMCC +5%), and PMC-Sierra (PMCS +1.9%) have joined the ranks of names outperforming following Ciena's (CIEN +13.6%) strong numbers (fueled by strong demand for metro/edge networking hardware) and Juniper's upbeat conference comments about Q3 bookings and router demand.
Ciena mentioned on its FQ3 CC U.S. orders were relatively strong (likely a sign of strong AT&T/Verizon spending), as North American carriers lead the way in adopting newer technology platforms (100G optical, integrated Ethernet/optical hardware, etc.), However, the company also claimed Europe is stabilizing, and that it's seeing new customer wins in Latin America/Asia.
Ciena also touted its share gains, noting Heavy Reading calls it the leader in the fiber-based Ethernet access switch space, and that Dell'Oro ranks its first in the integrated Ethernet/optical market. However, it does look as if Ciena has lost some share in optical transport (revenue +15% Q/Q but -26% Y/Y). The company says new customer wins will lead transport growth to pick up.
Ciena (CIEN) expects FQ4 revenue of $550M-$580M, mostly above a $551.4M consensus.
Sales of integrated Ethernet switching/optical networking gear (Converged Packet Optical) rose 3% Q/Q and 23% Y/Y in FQ3, and made up 56% of revenue. That could be a positive for Cyan (CYNI - previous).
Ethernet switch sales (packet networking) +14% Q/Q and +104% Y/Y, and now 11% of revenue. Optical transport hardware +15% Q/Q but -26% Y/Y, and 12% of revenue. Software/services +7% Q/Q and +1% Y/Y, and 20% of revenue.
As Cisco and Juniper can vouch, demand for metro/edge networking hardware (such as Ciena's converged packet optical gear and Ethernet switches) has been strong lately.
Gross margin was 43.6%, +110 bps Q/Q and +400 bps Y/Y, and reversing FQ2's Q/Q decline. It's expected to be in the low-40s in FQ4. Opex -3.5% Q/Q and only +8% Y/Y, op. margin jumped to 8.2% from 3.7% in FQ2.
International customers made up 37% of revenue vs. 43% in FQ2. Two customers (possibly AT&T/Verizon) accounted for 31.8% of revenue, nearly even with FQ2.
Infinera (INFN) +6.9%, JDS Uniphase (JDSU) +2.5% and Finisar (FNSR) +2.8% in sympathy.
Deal optimism is overshadowing a bearish note from Raymond James: the firm has cut estimates through 2015, and (backing up a recent WSJ column) says checks indicate sell-through has been weak.
Meanwhile, several smaller networking/telecom equipment makers have joined Alcatel-Lucent and Ericsson (previous) in outperforming, as investors speculate Nokia will use some of its Microsoft cash to strengthen NSN via M&A. Infinera (INFN +5.6%), Ciena (CIEN +3.5%), DragonWave (DRWI +4.8%), and Ruckus (RKUS +2.6%) are among the winners.
Craig-Hallum thinks Nokia is now likely to buy Ruckus, a leading player in carrier Wi-Fi and an existing NSN partner.
Nasdaq-100 futures (QQQ, XLK) -0.5% AH after Cisco provides relatively light FQ1 guidance to go with an FQ4 beat, and also reports Asia-Pac/Japan orders were down 3% Y/Y (macro is blamed).
Networking/telecom hardware vendors and some of their suppliers are naturally the biggest decliners. Many of them have run up strongly this year on hopes of gradually improving carrier capex and enterprise IT spending. ALU -3.3% AH. JNPR -2.4%. ARUN -1.4%. FFIV -2%. ARRS -2.4%. RVBD -3.2%. JDSU -1.6%. FNSR -2.8%. CIEN -2.2%. CAVM -2%.
Optical networking hardware vendors Infinera (INFN +2.7%) and Ciena (CIEN +1.6%) rally after William Blair starts coverage with an Outperform. Shares of both companies have soared over the last 3 months, fueled by strong earnings reports (I, II) and expectations of a surge in 100G transmission system deployments. Infinera's Q2 report arrives on July 24.
Telecom equipment, chip, and component makers finish up strongly after Needham upgrades Finisar (FNSR +6%), Goldman upgrades Alcatel-Lucent (ALU +6.3%) and Adtran (ADTN +2.3%), and William Blair reports of positive F5 checks. Ciena (CIEN +10.1%), Riverbed (RVBD +4%), Calix (CALX +6.9%), Aruba (ARUN +5%), and JDS Uniphase (JDSU +3.6%), are among the top gainers. Needham says meetings with Finisar's chairman and CEO leave it impressed with the company's positioning and visibility. "Finisar seems more confident in its outlook than it’s been in a number of years." Goldman responds to Adtran's strong top-line results and guidance by declaring it "uniquely positioned to benefit" from a multi-year cable/DSL broadband infrastructure upgrade cycle. (previous)
Finisar (FNSR) +8.9% AH following its FQ4 beat. FQ1 guidance is for revenue of revenue of $245M-$260M and EPS of $0.22-$0.26, mostly above a consensus of $248.9M and $0.20. A 150 bps Q/Q increase in gross margin to 32.2%, caused by a favorable mix, contributed to the EPS beat. Finisar says it's seeing strong demand for 10G/100G Ethernet components for datacom gear - 10G is being rapidly adopted in data centers, and some firms are starting to embrace 100G. Opex +4% Y/Y. a little above rev. growth of 2%. JDSU +3%, NPTN +4.3%, and CIEN +1% in sympathy. FN, OCLR, and OPLK could also rally. CC at 5PM ET (webcast). (PR)
NeoPhotonics (NPTN +5.2%) and Alliance Fiber (AFOP +4.2%) close up strongly after SA contributor Inflection Point Investing argues the optical component vendors are plays on the 100G optical networking boom, while making a fresh bull case for Infinera (INFN +1.6%). IPI points out NeoPhotonics mentioned in May it's seeing strong 100G component sales, and that it "supplies to seemingly every big vendor in the optical space." Regarding Infinera, the firm is encouraged by Ciena's (CIEN +2.2%) earnings call remarks about "seeing a strong uptick" in 100G optical demand, with U.S. carriers leading the way. (previous)