Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG)
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CMG Forum Topics
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- General Discussion on CMG
- Decreasing Chipotle Traffic Could Spell Trouble [view article]
- Food Retailers Countering Commodity Increases [view article]
- 5 Possible Picks in a Tumultuous Market [view article]
- Russell 1000 Stocks with the Highest Short Interest as Percentage of Float [view article]
- Five Retailers for Falling Gas Prices [view article]
- Chipotle Mexican Grill: Too Hot To Handle? [view article]
- A First Look At How the SEC's Rules Are Working [view article]
- Russell 1,000 Stocks with the Highest Short Interest as a Percentage of Float [view article]
- Hedge Fund Tracking: Tremblant Capital [view article]
- Restaurants Still Feeling the Economic Slowdown [view article]
- Chipotle: Customers Begin to Tighten the Belt [view article]
- Naked Shorted Stocks [view article]
loading ...Recent CMG Articles
- Decreasing Chipotle Traffic Could Spell Trouble
- Food Retailers Countering Commodity Increases
- 5 Possible Picks in a Tumultuous Market
- Russell 1000 Stocks with the Highest Short Interest as Percentage of Float
- A First Look At How the SEC's Rules Are Working
- Chipotle Mexican Grill: Too Hot To Handle?
- Friday Options Update: MER, AIG, GE, GM, F, XLY, XLP, XME, HSY, MAR, HOLX, CMG
- Hedge Fund Tracking: Tremblant Capital
- Russell 1,000 Stocks with the Highest Short Interest as a Percentage of Float
- Restaurants Still Feeling the Economic Slowdown
- Full List of Articles »
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Jacome
Chipotle Mexican Grill: Spicing Up Fast Casual [view article]
Comments we sent to a reader:----------------------...
Basically CMG can raise prices < 2% and keep margins flat. So they'll raise prices more than that in 08 assuming they cannot leverage G&A more. I think the EBIT margin has more room to expand assuming the new labor efficiencies come to fruition and they jack up prices 2-3% in 08, which is not unreasonable. A 1.5% increase on your basic chicken burrito is ~11c - personally, I would never notice a 11c hike on a 6 dollar burrito. The CMG story is fascinating, but if they miss the next quarter, the market will NOT forgive them. The best way to look at the stock is to look at other "hi growth" concepts like PNRA, BWLD, dare I say CROX. 37x for a restaurant is insane, but if managements is planning to blow the St's EBIT margin estimates, 37x will look like a gift in 12 months - 07 was a bone crushing year for Chipotle. That's the key bet for 08: the story is not near saturation, mgmt is being conservative, and food costs will be offset by adequate menu increases. Not for those with weak stomachs, that's for sure.
Reply
Jacome
Chipotle Mexican Grill: Spicing Up Fast Casual [view article]
Getting a lot of emails today, glad people liked the bullet point format. We also have models and more detailed research for those looking for it. For SeekingAlpha readers, we prefer to offer the "short version" ReplyChipotle Mexican Grill: Spicing Up Fast Casual [view article]
Did you buy at $150? ReplyJacome
Chipotle Mexican Grill: Does the Growth Justify the Price? [view article]
no one was right. CMG reversed the 15% haircut and bounced nicely. It ended up closing down just 3% - amazing.Best thing to do is wait for a 70-80 stock - that is what the EVA/DCFs/comp models we are looking at are telling us. Still, we may never see that gift of a pullback b/c there is still some fresh capital on the sidelines that is getting interested in this historic buying opp in CMG shares Reply
Jacome
Get in Line: Chipotle (CMG) [view article]
I wrote this article more than 2 years ago. CMG has gone up 5x fold (400%) since then.....We initiate on 2/22 with a BUY rating. Chipotle is far from over, we're just getting the 5th inning started...... ReplyJacome
Chipotle Should Bounce Following Weak Report [view article]
Nice call - Briefing.com guys had the call laced nicely as well. Smart $ bought in at after hrs @ 92 and made 11-13% in a day. Shorts made some money on the call, but since it was hard to borrow more shares, they covered. That, combined with fresh capital longs looking for "value" created the bounce you predicted. ReplyJacome
Chipotle Mexican Grill Q4 2007 Earnings Call Transcript [view article]
They are using labor efficiencies and modest menu increases (1.5-3%) to offset higher ag costs. Corn is feed for chicken and both prices for those inputs have popped like a basketball released from underwater. We would pick up CMG down here. If 100 is resistance, buy @ 80, but there is a lot of $ on the sidelines that is still liking the longer term story and we have never had a pullback this large in Chipotle stock (200 day).
Fresh capital would likely get interested if the bounce proves short lived. Reply
Jacome
Chipotle Should Bounce Following Weak Report [view article]
net net the long term fundamental story is intact. Company missed EPS for the first time in the company's history, but 1c was non-recurring item. Also, mgmt has proven conservative with comps guidance, and this time, the St took the stock down. The only concern is valuation; unit economics are on fire, still, each new store generating 40% ROI.Valuation now @ 35x 08 numbers, we are looking at 25% EPS growth presumably over next 12-18 months. The opportunistic buyer will wait for the stock to come in bit, but we may not see that. Tons of people made $ on this name, many did not and fresh capital will get interested in the longer term story if the stock breaks 90.
At 700 units (~$150M CAPX projected in 08, all of it can be funded internally), I think the CMG story is in the 4th/5th inning and we are nowhere near saturation -- If these guys can raise prices in a weak economy, think what they could muster when the US is cooking; they'll need the price raises to offset the input (corn/chicken) increases, byproduct of the ethanol boom, which has popped feed prices like a basketball released from underwater.
Bottom line: the concept travels well, the secular push for high quality ingredients is a nice backdrop, and I'm betting on Steve Ells the founder to help CMG survive thru the current stagflation cycle. Reply
Jacome
Chipotle Should Bounce Following Weak Report [view article]
They are using labor efficiencies and modest menu increases (1.5-3%) to offset higher ag costs. Corn is feed for chicken and both prices for those inputs have popped like a basketball released from underwater. We would pick up CMG down here. If 100 is resistance, buy @ 80, but there is a lot of $ on the sidelines that is still liking the longer term story and we have never had a pullback this large in Chipotle stock (200 day). Fresh capital would likely get interested if the bounce proves short lived. ReplyJacome
A Long List of Possible Shorts [view article]
They are using labor efficiencies and modest menu increases (1.5-3%) to offset higher ag costs. Corn is feed for chicken and both prices for those inputs have popped like a basketball released from underwater. We would pick up CMG down here. If 100 is resistance, buy @ 80, but there is a lot of $ on the sidelines that is still liking the longer term story and we have never had a pullback this large in Chipotle stock (200 day). Fresh capital would likely get interested if the bounce proves short lived.Reply
Chipotle Should Bounce Following Weak Report [view article]
I like Chipotle as a user and deeply respect Piper Jaffrey-- the best analysts in the biz-- but CMG 's got a super high P/E for a restaurant, IMO. ReplyJacome
Chipotle Mexican Grill Q4 2007 Earnings Call Transcript [view article]
We initiate on CMG next week and will have something out to the SA team as soon as it hits. Models are still being built, we'll have it out on 2/22 by mkt close.~ DJ Reply
Jacome
Chipotle Mexican Grill Q4 2007 Earnings Call Transcript [view article]
Quick take on the quarter:Net net the long term fundamental story is intact. Company missed EPS for the first time in the company's history, but 1c was non-recurring item. Also, mgmt has proven conservative with comps guidance, and this time, the St took the stock down. The only concern is valuation; unit economics are on fire, still, each new store generating 40% ROI.
Valuation now @ 35x 08 numbers, we are looking at 25% EPS growth presumably over next 12-18 months. The opportunistic buyer will wait for the stock to come in bit, but we may not see that. Tons of people made $ on this name, many did not and fresh capital will get interested in the longer term story if the stock breaks 90. Today, we saw it reverse pretty quickly on 4x avg daily volume.
At 700 units (~$150M CAPX projected in 08, all of it can be funded internally), I think the CMG story is in the 4th/5th inning and we are nowhere near saturation -- If these guys can raise prices in a "poor" economy, think what they could muster when the US is cooking; they'll need the price raises to offset the input (corn/chicken) increases, byproduct of the ethanol boom, which has popped feed prices like a basketball released from underwater.
Bottom line: the concept travels well, the secular push for high quality ingredients is a nice backdrop, and I'm betting on Steve Ells the founder to help CMG survive through the current stagflation cycle.
Reply
Jacome
Chipotle Mexican Grill Q4 2007 Earnings Call Transcript [view article]
what is up with you guys making us scroll - that is ehat TSCM and i thought you were "against" thathmmmmm. Reply
Blowtorch
Chipotle Should Bounce Following Weak Report [view article]
New unit volume declined double digits. Estimates for 2008 are still very aggressive. At least the drug addled $2.85 estimates for next year should go away.This was the first miss (though Piper claimed it was in line) after beating estimates by huge margins in all prior quarters. A great company but sell into the bounce and buy it at $80 in a month or two. Reply