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Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG)

  • Wed, Apr. 22, 9:15 AM
    | Comment!
  • Wed, Apr. 22, 9:08 AM
    • Investment firms are weighing in on Chipotle (NYSE:CMG) following the company's Q1 report and 2015 guidance.
    • Raymond James downgrades shares of the restaurant operator to Market Perform from Outperform.
    • Credit Suisse takes its price target down to $770 from $785, while keeping the company rated at Outperform.
    • Sterne Agee holds tight with a Buy rating and $766 price target.
    • Previously: Chipotle -4.7% as comp growth slows (Apr. 21 2015)
    • Previously: Chipotle tips new price hikes during earnings call (Apr. 21 2015)
    • CMG -5.41% premarket to $655.06.
    | 1 Comment
  • Tue, Apr. 21, 9:22 PM
    • Chipotle (NYSE:CMG) would have put up an even stronger Q1 comp if the supply of carnitas didn't run short at a high percentage of its stores.
    • Execs tipped off the during the earnings call that the company sees pushing through more menu price increases. Steak and barbacoa price hikes of 4% to 6% are expected by Q3.
    • The fast-casual chain's strong run of double-digit comp growth is highlighted by management.
    • They also noted that operating expenses as a percentage of sales fell 320 bps to 81.8% as sales leverage reduced the impact of some costs.
    • Previously: Chipotle Mexican Grill beats by $0.22, misses on revenue (April 21)
    • Previously: Chipotle -4.7% as comp growth slows (April 21)
    • Chipotle earnings call webcast
    • CMG -5.41% in the after-hours session to $655.05.
    | 1 Comment
  • Tue, Apr. 21, 5:37 PM
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  • Tue, Apr. 21, 4:08 PM
    • Chipotle (CMG +0.9%) reports comparable-store sales rose 10.4% in Q1 vs. 11.6% expected and 16.1% in Q4.
    • Higher menu prices were a factor during the quarter.
    • Restaurant level operating margin +90 bps Q/Q and +160 bps Y/Y to 27.5%.
    • Food cost ratio -60 bps to 33.9% as price hikes offset higher beef and tortilla costs.
    • Store count +49 Q/Q to 1,831.
    • Guidance: Chipotle's comp growth outlook for 2015 is for a low to mid-single digit rate increase. 190 to 205 new store openings expected.
    • CMG -4.7% after-hours to $667.21.
  • Tue, Apr. 21, 4:03 PM
    • Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG): Q1 EPS of $3.88 beats by $0.22.
    • Revenue of $1.09B (+20.6% Y/Y) misses by $20M.
    • Shares -4.8%.
    • Press Release
  • Mon, Apr. 20, 5:35 PM
  • Wed, Apr. 15, 11:00 AM
    • Cowen Research initiates coverage on 8 different restaurant stocks.
    • Starbucks (SBUX -0.1%) and Chipotle (CMG +0.7%) land Outperform ratings.
    • Also of note, the high-flying pair ranked first and second in a Piper Jaffray poll of top restaurants brands with upper-income and average-income teenagers.
    • Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD +0.6%) was the third stock set at Outperform by Cowen.
    • Habit Restaurants (HABT -1.8%), McDonald's (MCD -0.3%), Restaurants Brands Group (QSR +0.2%), Panera Bread (PNRA +0.7%), and Yum Brands (YUM +0.8%) were given a rating of Market Perform by the investment firm.
    • None of the restaurant stocks listed above trade with a forward P-E ratio below 20.
    | Comment!
  • Sat, Apr. 11, 10:22 AM
    • M&A activity in the restaurant sector is tracking below the level seen in the broad market, observes Nation's Restaurant News.
    • Concerns on the high valuations of publicly-traded brands have limited merger activity to franchise-heavy companies or leveraged deals like the one slapped together by 3G Capital with Burger King and Tim Hortons to create Restaurant Brands International (NYSE:QSR).
    • "Public company stocks are priced toward perfection," warns KeyBanc director Brad Swanson.
    • The reluctance of large companies to snap up new concepts is part of the reason growth chains such as Habit Restaurants (NASDAQ:HABT), Zoe's Kitchen (NYSE:ZOES), El Pollo Loco (NASDAQ:LOCO), and Shake Shack (NYSE:SHAK) have gone down the IPO path, while Chipotle (NYSE:CMG) and Buffalo Wild Wings (NASDAQ:BWLD) are incubating their new concepts in-house.
    • Bojangles' (BOJA), Smashburger, or Five Guys could be the next IPO high-flyer.
    • There's a thought that the smart money is passing on the sector while individual investors are playing roulette looking for the next restaurant superstar.
    • Numbers dive: The historical average for restaurant chains is an enterprise value multiple of 10X cash flow for quick-service chains and 7.9X cash flow for casual-dining chains vs. the current trading level of 14X EV for quick-service brands and 10X EV for casual-dining names.
    • Buy-and-hold investors still have options on the menu. The restaurant stocks with the lowest 5-year P-E ratio (estimated) are McDonald's (NYSE:MCD), Ruby Tuesday (NYSE:RT), Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (NASDAQ:RRGB), Bob Evans Farms (NASDAQ:BOBE), and DineEquity (NYSE:DIN).
  • Fri, Apr. 10, 10:01 AM
    • Chipotle (CMG +4%) breaks higher in early trading on strong volume without any news out from the company.
    • The stock has been meandering in a narrow trading range for most of the week.
    • Chipotle releases Q1 results on April 21 with analysts expecting revenue of $1.1B and EPS of $3.58. A large focus will be on the expected deceleration of same-store sales growth from their giddy levels of 2014. Traders expect some additional earnings volatility this year on the stock.
  • Wed, Apr. 8, 12:08 PM
    • Chipotle (CMG -0.1%) continues to have issues keeping restaurants fully stocked amid its tight standards on food quality.
    • Pork sourcing has been the most pressing problem nationally for the chain, although some local restaurants have also run low on chicken and beef.
    • The company's plan to add 205 restaurants this year and the increase of fast-food chains looking to buy meat free of antibiotics and hormones could exacerbate the sourcing challenges.
    • Shares of CMG are flat over the last month and -3.8% YTD.
    | Comment!
  • Fri, Mar. 13, 1:39 PM
    • Levy Acquisition plans to change its name to Del Taco after buying out the fast-food concept
    • Shares of the company will trade on the Nasdaq under the symbol LEVY.
    • The Del Taco chain has made an effort to expand its menu to include premium burritos and bowls in order to serve as a Chipotle (NYSE:CMG) and Taco Bell (NYSE:YUM) alternative.
    • Expanding Del Taco into emerging and established markets is part of the plan post-buyout.
    • Currently, Del Taco has about 550 restaurants in the U.S. across 16 states.
    | Comment!
  • Fri, Mar. 13, 11:36 AM
    • Chanticleer Holdings (HOTR +4%) is the restaurant stock which has shown the largest jump in sales per share for the last quarter, according to data from Marketwatch.
    • Chains with outlets operated or owned by Chanticleer includes Hooters, Just Fresh Restaurants, and American Burger Co.
    • Chanticleer's focus with Hooters is in developing the concept in new global markets.
    • Habit Restaurants (HABT -6.7%) and Frisch's Restaurants (FRSH -0.4%) were the next two on the sales-per-share growth list.
    • Chipotle (CMG -0.1%), despite all the focus on valuation by skeptics, ranked 4th by improving sales per share by 26% to $33.92 over the last year.
    | 1 Comment
  • Thu, Mar. 12, 4:15 AM
    • KFC (NYSE:YUM) and others may face pressure from consumer and environmental groups to change how its poultry are raised after McDonald's (NYSE:MCD) announced it would only source chickens raised without antibiotics identified as important to humans.
    • Both McDonald's and Yum are stepping up efforts to win back diners lured away by chains such as such as Chipotle (NYSE:CMG) and Panera Bread (NASDAQ:PNRA), which boast antibiotic-free meats.
    • Chicken stocks also took a hit yesterday on concerns that the push to remove antibiotics from hatcheries could raise costs or that inaction could crimp demand.
    • Previously: Chicken stocks hit by antibiotic concerns (Mar. 11 2015)
    • Previously: McDonald's unveils menu sourcing initiatives (Mar. 04 2015)
    | 1 Comment
  • Wed, Mar. 11, 9:15 AM
    • Credit Suisse launches coverage on Chipotle (NYSE:CMG) with a strong initiation at Outperform.
    • The investment firm sets a price target of $785 on the restaurant chain.
    • RBC Capital is also in a bullish mode on Chipotle, raising profit estimates and lifting its PT to $740.00
    • Citigroup has a Street-high PT of $809 on CMG.
    • A few Hold/Neutral ratings are out there on Chipotle, but a Sell rating from a major firm is missing.
    • CMG +0.2% premarket to $659.99.
  • Sat, Mar. 7, 10:13 AM
    • A powerhouse quarter of improved comps and widened margins is in the books for the restaurant industry as investors look forward to see if the trend extends.
    • The industry is in a growth phase with eating and drinking establishments adding 58.7K jobs in February on a seasonally adjusted basis to mark the biggest monthly gain since December of 2012.
    • The early read on Q1 traffic is favorable (ex-weather), although chains could see some wage inflation pressure and innovation outlays with differentiated concepts popping up at Habit Restaurants (NASDAQ:HABT), Zoe's Kitchen (NYSE:ZOES), Shake Shack (NYSE:SHAK), and a host of others.
    • Major digital initiatives at chains such as Panera Bread (NASDAQ:PNRA) and Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) also have the potential to be disruptive.
    • A few screens to pick through the restaurant stock menu are listed below.
    • Lowest forward P/E ratio: McDonald's (NYSE:MCD), Ruth's Hospitality (NASDAQ:RUTH), and Cracker Barrel (NASDAQ:CBRL).
    • Lowest price/free cash flow ratio: Ruby Tuesday (NYSE:RT), Nathan's (NASDAQ:NATH), Jack in the Box (NASDAQ:JACK).
    • Dividend yield +3%: DineEquity (NYSE:DIN), Darden Restaurants (NYSE:DRI), McDonald's, and Arcos Dorados (NYSE:ARCO).
    • Top YTD performers: Jack in the Box (JACK), Wendy's (NASDAQ:WEN), Sonic (NASDAQ:SONC), El Pollo LoCo (NASDAQ:LOCO).
    • PEG ratio below 2.00: Chuy's Holdings (NASDAQ:CHUY), Ruth's Hospitality, Krispy Kreme Donuts (NYSE:KKD), Cheesecake Factory (NASDAQ:CAKE), Brinker International (NYSE:EAT), Denny's (NASDAQ:DENN), Buffalo Wild Wings (NASDAQ:BWLD).
    • Short ratio below 2%: Yum Brands (NYSE:YUM), Jack in the Box (JACK), Chipotle (NYSE:CMG), DineEquity, Bloomin' Brands (NASDAQ:BLMN), Denny's (DENN), McDonald's (MCD).
    • Previously: Restaurant stocks continue hot streak (Feb. 24)
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Company Description
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants, which serves a menu of burritos, tacos, burrito bowls (a burrito without the tortilla) and salads, made using fresh ingredients.
Sector: Services
Industry: Restaurants
Country: United States