Wed, Feb. 4, 9:27 AM
- Goldman Sachs reiterates a Buy rating on Chipotle (NYSE:CMG).
- The investment firm sees an over-reation to the inevitable slowdown of comps at Chipotle in 2015.
- The fast-casual chain is bumping up against strong comps of 13.4%, 17.3%, 19.8%, and 16.1% over the next four quarters.
- Previously: Chipotle Mexican Grill beats by $0.05, revenue in-line (Feb. 03 2015)
- Previously: Chipotle -6.1% after comp growth slowdown guide (Feb. 03 2015)
- CMG -6.6% premarket.
Wed, Feb. 4, 9:13 AM
Tue, Feb. 3, 5:37 PM
Tue, Feb. 3, 4:12 PM
- Chipotle (NYSE:CMG) reports comparable-store sales rose 16.1% in Q4.
- Analyst estimates for comp sales ranged from 14% to 17%.
- Restaurant level operating margin +100 bps to 26.6% as sales leverage kicked in.
- Food cost ratio +110 bps to 35.0%.
- Store count +60 Q/Q to 1,783.
- Guidance: Chipotle's comp growth projection of a low to mid-single digit rate trails the 8% consensus estimate.
- CMG -6.1% after-hours.
Wed, Jan. 14, 8:40 AM
- Chipotle (NYSE:CMG) has pulled sales of pork items at close to a third of its restaurants after determining a supplier didn't comply with animal-welfare standards.
- The supplier reportedly was raising pigs without any access to the outdoors.
- CMG -0.6% premarket.
Thu, Jan. 8, 11:26 AM
- Citi takes a bullish view on select names in the restaurant sector.
- Wendy's (WEN +1%) is initiated at Buy with a $11 price target. Analyst Gregory Badishkanian sees some of the company's initiatives helping to draw in millennials.
- Coverage on Chipotle (CMG +3.5%) is assumed again at a Buy with a $809 PT. Shares of CMG are at an all-time high after taking out $700 earlier this week.
- The investment firm is also backing Restaurant Brands (QSR +2.7%) and Brinker International (EAT +1.1%) for gains with resumed Buy ratings.
Oct. 21, 2014, 9:44 AM
- Execs with Chipotle (CMG -4.2%) say they see adding 190 to 205 restaurants next year as a "sensible" growth rate, but decline to give store count guidance beyond 2015.
- Comp sales growth of close to 20% was achieved mainly through traffic increases (not pricing). Chipotle's comp gain would have been slightly higher if not for a customer trade down from steak to chicken during the quarter.
- No surprise, but the company warns the sizzling comp growth numbers are likely to fall back as the company laps quarters which included price hikes.
- The company says it plans to open a small number of grocery restaurants in 2015.
- Though checkout speed has been impressive for Chipotle compared to peers, management still sees room for improvement. The average restaurant turns over just a third of the high end mark of 350 transactions per hour.
- There's no plans to roll out Apple Pay capabilities at stores.
- Earnings call transcript
Oct. 20, 2014, 4:08 PM
- Chipotle (NYSE:CMG) reports comparable-restaurant sales rose 19.8% in Q3.
- Restaurant-level operating margin +200 bps to 28.8% as sales leverage overrode higher beef and avocados pricing.
- The company notes the quarter included a full month of higher menu prices.
- Food costs ratio +70 bps to 34.3%.
- Store count +43 to 1,724.
- 2014 guidance: The outlook is for a mid-teens comparable-restaurant sales growth mark. 180 to 195 new restaurant openings anticipated.
- 2015 guidance: The company expects a low to mid-single digit comp as it starts lapping the quarters with price hikes. 190 to 205 new restaurants are forecast to be opened.
- CMG -2.2% AH.
Aug. 21, 2014, 9:22 AM| 2 Comments
Jul. 22, 2014, 12:47 PM
Jul. 22, 2014, 12:12 PM
- "With most restaurants struggling to drive positive traffic, CMG remains an anomaly, justifying an outsized valuation, with scarcity worth the premium," says Barclays in response to Chipotle's (CMG +12.8%) big Q2 beat. However, the firm is hesitant to recommend shares, given they now trade at 39x forward EPS.
- "As more of Chipotle’s markets are touched with menu price increases this quarter, the company is teed up for at least another two quarter of strong earnings growth," thinks Belus Capital.
- The company attributes only 250 bps of its 17.3% same-store growth (blew away a consensus of 10.5%) to its price hikes. Average transactions during peak lunch and dinner hours each rose by 8 Y/Y, and average check size rose by 5%, thanks partly to larger group sizes.
- Chipotle did admit on its CC (transcript) its price hikes led to a "slight shift" among customers from steak to chicken, but insists "customers have generally responded well" otherwise. The company also noted it's experimenting with take out-focused restaurants that have limited seating, particularly in U.S./European locales with high real estate costs.
- Prior Chipotle earnings coverage
Jul. 22, 2014, 9:14 AM
Jul. 21, 2014, 4:30 PM
- With the help of its price hikes, Chipotle's (NYSE:CMG) same-store sales rose 17.3% Y/Y in Q2, a marked improvement from Q1's 13.4% clip and fueling a big Q2 beat.
- The company now expects mid-teens 2014 same-store growth, up from prior guidance of high-single digit growth. It still forecasts 180-195 new 2014 restaurant openings.
- Restaurant level op. margin was 27.3%, -30 bps Y/Y but +140 bps Q/Q. Food costs were 34.6% of revenue vs. 34.5% in Q1 and 33.1% a year ago. But labor costs -90 bps Y/Y to 21.8%, and occupancy costs -50 bps to 5.4%. G&A costs +90 bps to 7.1% of revenue.
- 45 new restaurants were opened, raising total count to 1,681.
- Q2 results, PR
Jul. 21, 2014, 4:05 PM| 5 Comments
Apr. 30, 2014, 9:21 AM
- Shares of Noodles (NDLS) and Panera Bread (PNRA) trade lower in premarket action after the fast-casual restaurant chains fail to come anywhere close to matching the double-digit comparable-sales growth that Chipotle (CMG) churned up for the first quarter.
- Restaurant sector analysts have noted that speed of service and simplicity of menu are two significant factors in the segment.
- Panera Bread is addressing its "mosh-pit" order pickup issue, while Noodles thinks it can regain traffic to bring scale back into play for margin expansion.
- Execs with both companies made a strong case during their earnings calls that Q1 results were due to transitory or one-time factors.
- Conference call transcripts: NDLS, PNRA
- Premarket: NDLS -6.5%, PNRA -5.6%, CMG -0.3%
Mar. 24, 2014, 2:38 PM| 19 Comments
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