Coach Inc. (COH)

All Comments on COH

  • commenter
    Philip Davis
    Dec 05 05:01 PM
    My Website
    November Market Analysis - What a Month! [view article]
    Try googling "the cramer effect," there's a lot written on it and a few weeks ago I actually found a college statistics paper studying his effect on stocks (not favorable, it backed up my trap premise).

    Whether he does it on purpose or if he is just irresponsible, clearly his guiding sheep to the slaughter on momentum stocks that are 2/3 or more up a cycle is very damaging to the casual investor following his picks. When I do a show, I have already decided that I will call bottoms on stocks (like SBUX, WM and CC recently) and tell people how to pick them up as good long-term investments.

    I don't need to post spectacular gains on a TV show as the investing style is inappropriate for 90% of the audience, I'd rather have a show where, a year later, the picks average 18% and you didn't have to be a timing genius to get in on the trade.

    Even on my member site we have long and short-term portfolios as not everyone wants to be a gunslinger and getting reasonable returns from fairly safe plays is very appealing to the majority.     Reply
  • commenter
    omooc
    Dec 04 11:08 PM
    My Website
    November Market Analysis - What a Month! [view article]
    In Cramer's program, whenever a stock is mentioned, there is, invariably, transactions on that stock. While the host may not have positions in the stocks he recommends, reading your post gives one the impression his buddies are well prepared to pounce on listeners ready to take action. Except for an article in Barron's a few weeks back, are there other studies about Cramer's recommendations? omooc Reply
  • commenter
    Love to
    short
    Dec 03 07:52 PM
    Three Retail Stocks For the Holiday Season [view article]
    Great call with COH. I have realized a sizable gain since your posting. This stock has performed tremendously well despite the entire retail sector being in a slump. High end retail will continue to be an outferformer within this industry group. Thanks. Reply
  • commenter
    Markham
    Nov 12 01:15 PM
    My Website
    Are Retail Stocks Bargains? [view article]
    This looks to be a case where an analysis based on fundamentals (buying stocks based on historical valuations) creates a value trap, due to the exclusion of the macroeconomic factors at work. A lot of the retail growth over the last 5 or so years was generated by people abusing credit, whether that credit came in the form of Plastic or HELOCs, especially the latter. Take HELOCs out of the picture and there is simply less money available to drive retail growth and the YoY earnings will probably decline.

    Factor in energy prices, healthcare and a consumer credit bubble and the outlook looks rather dismal for retail.

    -M     Reply
  • commenter
    hillcrestln
    Nov 12 12:08 PM
    Are Retail Stocks Bargains? [view article]
    Hmmm. So retail stocks "will outperform in a recession." This is slippery Wall Street talk for "retail stocks will fall less than other stocks in a recession." Not very comforting. The last recession was March 01 to November 01. The RTH dropped like a stone in that period. Reply
  • commenter
    shicks
    Nov 04 08:45 AM
    Stock Performance Since The Last Fed Meeting [view article]
    WNR is down since the Fed meeting. Another reason could be three insiders selling millions of dollars in stock in August 2007 and ~1/2 million in September 2007. Maybe investors are wondering why they are selling so much in a short span of time. Reply
  • commenter
    borisb
    Oct 24 08:28 AM
    Coach Drops the Ball, Falls 7% on Earnings [view article]
    on CNBC fast money program tuesday, trader Savy Mckee says that the pullback in Coach, now a steep $20 dip is a buy point. Reply
  • commenter
    TraderMark
    Oct 11 06:07 PM
    My Website
    Coach Calls a Time-Out for the Aspirational American Consumer [view article]
    Japan, not impressed - slowing mature market
    China, yes it will be a good opportunity and why I will be back in Coach at some point. But not this point and not until things improve technically in the stock. It's broken right now and tied to 2 mature markets, one of which is reliant on massive borrowing (USA)

    Again its about timetable. I am a bull on Coach in the long run, but not in the near term. $41 would not surprise me in the near term; thats >10% down from where I wrote the article.     Reply
  • commenter
    User 112873
    Oct 11 04:12 PM
    Coach Calls a Time-Out for the Aspirational American Consumer [view article]
    I disagree. Since Coach derives a significant % of sales in Japan, and soon China, the favorable exchange rate in these healthy overseas markets should offset weakness in US sales. Further, as Coach expands product offerings and market segments, same store sales should continue to increase in the US and abroad. Prognosis is good, especially for the long term investor. Coach is a solid company producing 20%+ annual sales increases that is just entering the Chinese marketplace. Sure, Coach isn't producing those heady 40%+ sales gains any longer, but consistent 20%+ is just fine by me. Reply
  • commenter
    cmangahas
    Sep 24 06:57 PM
    Coach Can Double Market Share by 2010 [view article]
    Thanks for this post - I appreciate the insights. Would like to see you include sources for the data cited.
    C. Mangahas, yanmba.com
    Reply
  • commenter
    borisb
    Sep 13 08:58 AM
    The Short Case on Coach [view article]
    Zack you keep dumping on Coach but its already dipped $12 to $13.. Reply
  • commenter
    TraderMark
    Aug 30 07:22 AM
    My Website
    Coach is the Real Retail 'Tell' Stock [view article]
    Dan, I agree there is some dilution by the outlet mall stores, but I believe their Chairman/CEO has stated that they try to keep the outlets something like 70 miles away from normal stores, to avoid this as much as possible. I still believe its caters to many of this target group but your list of names is also a great list; also I would add RL (look at the 4-5 week stock performance, north of 100 down to low/mid 70s). WFMI is sort of hard to use as a tell simply due to the mess surrounding the Wild Oats aquisition and the stock has been in a fall for a year now due to slowing growth and entry into its turf by traditional grocers. TIF, LVHM, BMW can agree on those.

    Amit, I like COH in the long(er) run due to their inevitable cache and expansion into China. COH is huge in Japan and many luxury brands are booming due to their new exposure in China. Chinese seem to love brands. SBUX is only staying afloat in terms of valuation due to this international expansion but coffee/food is a lot harder to transcend borders than a pretty purse. ;) But not enough sales are ex-Japan or US to help them in the near term. COH will probably be a great buying opportunity sometime here in 6-18 months in my opinion for the Chinese middle/upper class consumer play.     Reply
  • commenter
    Dan
    Aug 29 12:53 PM
    Coach is the Real Retail 'Tell' Stock [view article]
    COH as a "tell" is obfuscated by the fact that they are growing their customer base expanding downward to the middle class by opening up stores in outlet malls, selling items via the Rack, etc. As a brand, it is mainstream. The rich(er) will move on. A better barometer of middle upper class spending can be found via BMWs, TIF, LVHM, WFMI sales in North America. Reply
  • commenter
    Amit Chokshi
    Aug 29 11:11 AM
    My Website
    Coach is the Real Retail 'Tell' Stock [view article]
    I agree with you, I also believe some former high fliers are going to phase into the long-period of valuation compression like WMT and HD did over the past decade. COH is a great company but I think like SBUX the market may re-assess whether these companies deserve premium valuation multiples. I also think DSW is a good candidate as well but I was scared out of shorting it unfortunately. Reply
  • commenter
    Alan
    Brochstein
    Aug 20 05:05 PM
    My Website
    Don’t Fight the Fed? Why Not? [view article]
    That is certainly a possibility. What's nice about BFAM is that those services aren't going away. Even if unemployment rises, there will still be a need for these centers. I would suspect that large corporations, which are extremely profitable right now relative to historical standards, may trim headcount, but we aren't talking about super-hard times for companies. Just lower profits than they might hope for... In an environment of layoffs, the companies will not want to take away things that make life better for those who retain their jobs or morale will suffer even more. Reply

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