Tue, Aug. 25, 10:20 AM
- Alaska Gov. Walker says he plans to recommend that the state buy out TransCanada's (TRP +2.3%) position in the major liquefied natural gas project Alaska is pursuing.
- Walker estimates buyout costs would total ~$100M.
- The other partners in the project are Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM), BP, ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) and the Alaska Gasline Development Corp., which would hold the state's interest in liquefaction facilities.
- No decision has been made yet on whether to build the project, which is in a phase of preliminary engineering and design.
Mon, Aug. 24, 3:27 PM
- Chevron (CVX -5%) is upgraded to Neutral from Underperform with a $100 price target at BofA Merrill, which expects CVX’s net debt to stabilize with major projects beginning to contribute in 2017 and a drop in spending to maintenance levels.
- The firm says it has been concerned throughout the past year that CVX's cash burn would dilute equity value through peak spending at the same time that oil prices collapsed, but it no longer sees a risk, as CVX is discounting below strip prices but with a dividend.
- CVX requires sustained spending of $15B-$16B to hold production flat for an extended period,” BofA's Doug Leggate explains, adding that at $45-$50 oil, cash flow by 2017 would be closer to $29B so that the dividend is "more than covered" by cash flow in an ex-growth environment.
- ConocoPhillips (COP -6.2%) is the firm's top pick among the big oils after the stock has been hit hard, which the analyst thinks reflected unwarranted concerns regarding COP's dividend; at current strip prices, Leggate believes COP's upside is second only to Buy-rated Exxon Mobil (XOM -5.3%).
- However, the firm downgrades HollyFrontier (HFC -3.5%), Marathon Petroleum (MPC -7.2%) and Valero (VLO -4.7%) to Underperform and cuts Continental Resources (CLR -10.1%), Marathon Oil (MRO -8.4%), Noble Energy (NBL -5.4%) and Whiting Petroleum (WLL -8%) to Neutral.
Wed, Aug. 19, 11:18 AM
- It's a broad decline for stocks this morning, with the S&P 500, DJIA, and Nasdaq all lower by 1% or more. Leading the way down are the energy names (XLE -2.5%) after an unexpected jump in oil inventories has sent the price of black gold down to new bear market lows at $41.30 per barrel.
- Chevron (CVX -2.9%), ConocoPhillips (COP -3.8%), EOG Resources (EOG -4.3%), Apache (APA -4.1%), Hess (HES -3.6%), Marathon Oil (MRO -5.5%), Noble Energy (NBL -3.1%), Anadarko (APC -3.6%).
- ETFs: XLE, VDE, ERX, OIH, XOP, ERY, DIG, DUG, BGR, IYE, IEO, FENY, PXE, FIF, PXJ, NDP, RYE, FXN, DDG, DRIP, GUSH
Mon, Aug. 3, 3:50 PM
- Chevron (CVX -3.4%) continues to suffer analysts' wrath after disappointing Q2 results, as Barclays reiterates its Equal Weight rating on the stock but lowers its price target to $99 from $110, believing the “wave of development delays and outages” will hurt CVX in the near-term.
- The firm also notes that CVX's stronger production volumes in Q2 did not translate to higher upstream earnings and its cash flow remains a source of disappointment and concern.
- Last Friday, CVX was cut to Hold from Buy with a $96 12-month price target, cut from $125, at S&P Capital IQ.
- Barclays also lowers its price target on ConocoPhillips (COP -1.2%) to $64 from $75, pointing out the while COP reported a strong operational quarter, financial performance was challenged and cash flow neutrality remains a concern among investors (Briefing.com).
Fri, Jul. 31, 3:26 PM
- ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) is down 3.3%, a day after posting a Q2 earnings beat where it cut capex but continued to expand production.
- Meanwhile, debate on this oil major rages around the safety of its sizable dividend (declared at $0.74 quarterly this month).
- Credit Suisse finds the dividend safe: "ConocoPhillips outlined how they could cover their dividend with unchanged 2017 production at a $60/bbl Brent price. This is impressive." Considering capex of $11B this year, "the project cycle helps."
- Meanwhile, JPMorgan thinks the dividend can't stick around in the long run: "While management did a good job of highlighting the incremental levers available to pull, our caution remains that the strategy of increasing the mix of short cycle production with high decline rates will make it more difficult to cover the sacrosanct dividend in the out years when productivity slows."
- Conoco's yield is now a point higher than closest peer Chevron, at 5.7%, but "without the same downstream cushion and more than twice the leverage."
- Today: XOM -4.6%, and CVX -5.3%, after earnings reports this morning.
- Previously: Exxon Mobil off 1.8% premarket after lowest profit since 2009 (Jul. 31 2015)
- Previously: Chevron -1.8% as earnings tumble, paced by $2.2B upstream loss (Jul. 31 2015)
Fri, Jul. 17, 3:26 PM
- ConocoPhillips’ (COP -1%) cancellation of a contract with Ensco (ESV -5.9%) "calls backlog sanctity into question for offshore drillers," raising uncertainty about contracted newbuild rigs even though COP has been vocal about tightening offshore exploratory spending since March, J.P. Morgan analyst Sean Meakim writes.
- Backlog uncertainty will remain an overhang until major operators prove commitment to their drilling programs, and exposure to Petrobras (PBR -5.4%), Shell (RDS.A -0.1%) and Chevron (CVX -1.1%) could serve as a headwind until the binary risk to contracts is resolved through dayrate renegotiations or terminations, according to Meakim.
- The firm maintain a negative outlook on the offshore drillers, with an Underweight rating on ESV, Noble Corp. (NE -4.3%) and Transocean (RIG -7.1%).
- Earlier: Offshore drillers under heavy pressure
Fri, Jul. 17, 11:32 AM
- Offshore drillers are significantly underperforming the broader market following cautious commentary from Schlumberger (SLB -0.1%) despite its Q2 earnings beat, a contract termination and an analyst downgrade.
- On its earnings call this morning, SLB said it expects little improvement in pricing levels in the near future and declines in activity for offshore drillers, while land rigs provide a more attractive opportunity and better margins.
- For its Q3, SLB foresees a further 5%-6% decline in Q/Q revenue as well as lower EPS, and says the $0.77 consensus is a realistic number.
- Yesterday, ConocoPhillips (COP -1.8%) said it plans to cut future deepwater exploration spending, particularly in its operated Gulf of Mexico program; in light of the decision, COP is terminating a contract for an Ensco (ESV -4.9%) deepwater drill ship.
- Also, UBS today downgraded National Oilwell Varco (NOV -1.5%) to Sell from Neutral.
- SDRL -6.4%, RIG -4.7%, RDC -6%, DO -3.3%, ATW -4.2%, HP -1.2%, PTEN -1.2%, PACD -5.7%.
Thu, Jul. 16, 3:32 PM
- Statoil (STO +1.6%) is higher following an upgrade to Buy at Citigroup, which adds the stock to its short list - which also includes Total (TOT +0.9%) and ConocoPhillips (COP -0.9%) - of companies the firm believes is leading change in the industry.
- Citi cuts its estimates for 2015 prices by 8% and 2016 prices by 10% to $58/bbl and $63/bbl, respectively; in turn, with companies’ "feet to the fire,” the firm lowers its earnings estimates by an average of 4% for this year and 9% for 2016.
- But Citi thinks new CEO Eldar Saetre is driving deep-seated change at STO, with a core ambition to improve on self-help initiatives that already have been active over the last 12-18 months, bringing cost-efficiencies towards best-in-class within the big oil group.
Mon, Jul. 6, 3:15 PM
- WTI crude oil settled at a three-month low $52.53/bbl, -7.7%, on a confluence of worries about the Greece debt drama, China’s stock markets and a new flood of Iranian oil; Brent crude fell to $56.50, -6.3%, to snap its 100-day MA.
- WTI has dropped 10% over three straight sessions and Brent more than 7% lower in two consecutive days, breaking out of the narrow trading band of the past three months and risking a deeper slide ahead.
- The energy sector (XLE -1.3%) is easily the worst performing equity group today: CLR -7.4%, NOG -7.8%, OAS -8.5%, DNR -6.7%, WLL -6%.
- Oil supermajors also are sharply lower: XOM -1%, COP -2.8%, CVX -1.1%, BP -3.3%, TOT -3%.
- ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, UWTI, SCO, BNO, DBO, DWTI, DTO, USL, DNO, OLO, SZO, TWTI, OLEM
Fri, Jan. 30, 11:39 AM
- Chevron (CVX -2.9%) turns sharply lower after saying during its earnings conference call that it is suspending its share buyback program for 2015 given the change in market conditions.
- The company also says it is reviewing staff levels around the world.
- Other oil majors also turn lower: XOM -1%, COP -1.7%, BP -0.9%, RDS.A -2.1%.
Wed, Jan. 28, 10:24 AM
- Chevron (CVX -2.2%) says it plans to work with BP (BP -2.1%) and ConocoPhillips (COP -1.7%) to explore and appraise 24 jointly held offshore leases in the northwest part of Keathley Canyon in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico.
- The move marks a significant strategic retreat for BP, which will sell to CVX half its equity interests in the Gila and Tiber fields, huge deepwater discoveries found during the past decade, as it continues to scale back its balance sheet and cut costs; financial terms are not disclosed.
- CVX and COP agreed to joint ownership interests in the Gibson exploration blocks east of Gila.
- In Gila and Gibson, CVX will be the operator and own 36% interests, with BP holding 34% and COP 30%; in Tiber, CVX and BP each will own 31%, Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) 20% and COP 18%.
Mon, Jan. 12, 12:28 PM
- Wolfe Research’s Paul Sankey prefers EOG Resources (EOG -4%) as the best positioned among well exposed U.S. unconventional energy players that have the balance sheet to survive the current volatility.
- ConocoPhillips (COP -2.8%) has terrific unconventional exposure but enforced capital discipline that effectively forces the company to return cash to shareholders and shrink its size in an orderly manner.
- On Devon Energy (DVN -2.1%): "If EOG is the new Saudi Arabia of global oil, then Devon Energy is its Kuwait."
Mon, Jan. 5, 2:44 PM
- Chevron (CVX -3.8%) is downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup after outperforming big oil peers in the past three months in a reflection of the resilience of CVX's balance sheet.
- Citi revises its earnings forecasts to reflect lower oil prices, and says the stock now offers little upside in absolute and relative terms, "certainly when balanced against a portfolio that still carries uncertainties around both execution and reinvestment."
- The firm also downgrades Eni (E -8.6%) and Repsol (OTCQX:REPYY -5.8%), whose business models and valuations will look more challenged in a lower oil environment, but prefers companies it says boast strong growth credentials, such as BG (OTCPK:BRGXF), Total (NYSE:TOT) and ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP); it keeps Exxon (XOM -2.6%) at Neutral, thinking share buybacks likely will be dialed down to preserve the balance sheet for a prolonged period of lower prices or eventual acquisitions.
Mon, Jan. 5, 12:39 PM
- ConocoPhillips (COP -4.8%) says it is flowing its first barrels of oil from the Eldfisk II project in the Norwegian North Sea, in the company’s second big startup off the coast of Norway since late 2013.
- COP says its newly productive project, alongside its other Norwegian offshore wells, will boost its output by 60K boe/day by 2017, and plans to drill 40 new water-injection and oil wells at its Norwegian field over the next three years.
- The Eldfisk field is one of four offshore oil regions that make up Norway’s Greater Ekofisk Area, operated by COP and co-owned with Total (NYSE:TOT), Eni (NYSE:E), Statoil (NYSE:STO) and others.
Mon, Jan. 5, 12:18 PM
- Energy stocks severely underperform the broader market, with the sector -4.2% vs. the S&P 500's -1.4%, as U.S. oil prices briefly slip below $50/bbl for the first time since April 2009; Nymex crude recently was -4.4% at $50.37, while Brent crude -5.9% at $53.08.
- Among the day's biggest losers: DNR -9%, RIG -7.6%, NBR -4.8%, CHK -5.9%, SDRL -9.1%, SD -12.3%, NOV -5.9%, PSX -6.2%, APA -5.9%, DVN -4.4%, EOG -6%, SU -5.2%, OXY -4.2%, APC -8.7%, PWE -9%, ECA -5.5%, MRO -5.3%.
- Global oil majors, which have been seen as less vulnerable to falling oil prices, are posting big losses: XOM -2.7%, COP -4.5%, CVX -3.8%, BP -5.8%, RDS.A -4.6%, TOT -6.5%.
- ETFs: USO, XLE, OIL, UCO, ERX, VDE, OIH, SCO, XOP, ERY, FCG, DIG, PBW, BNO, GASL, DTO, DBO, DUG, IYE, XES, IEO, QCLN, IEZ, UWTI, PXE, USL, PXI, FENY, DWTI, PXJ, DNO, PSCE, RYE, SZO, PUW, FXN, OLO, DDG, HECO, TWTI, OLEM
Dec. 22, 2014, 10:45 AM
- Natural gas prices fall 9.5% to near two-year lows at $3.133/mmBtu, in the biggest one-day percentage loss since February and the lowest intraday price since January 2013, on mild weather forecasts and inventory that is above year-ago levels.
- Prices are now down more than 15% in three straight losing sessions and are 30% lower than the six-month high closing price of $4.489/mmBtu it hit just a month ago.
- Weather has been unseasonably warm for December, limiting demand for home heating and allowing relatively low stockpiles to catch up to where they were a year ago and encouraging traders to sell based on the belief that supply is relatively healthy.
- Gas producers are among the biggest early decliners: XOM -1.1%, CHK -7.3%, APC -2.6%, SWN -6%, DVN -2.2%, COP -2.3%, BP -1.5%, COG -4%, BHP -1.9%, CVX -1.3%, ECA -5.1%, EQT -4.3%, RDS.A -1.7%, UPL -12%, WPX -6.9%, EOG -1%, OXY -1.1%, RRC -6.1%, APA -2.3%, AR -3.2%, CNX -3%, QEP -4.8%, LINE -4.9%, NBL -1.6%, SM -2.6%, XEC -4.2%, PXD -2.9%, NFX -5.1%.
- ETFs: UNG, DGAZ, UGAZ, BOIL, GAZ, FCG, GASL, KOLD, UNL, NAGS, DCNG
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