Q1 2009 Earnings Call Transcript

April 23, 2009 5:00 pm ET

At the end of each trading week, Hillbent scans for the equity market for potential anomalies which exhibit extremely oversold and overbought conditions. Past observations have revealed that such candidates may experience reversal corrections to the upside or downside once the market reconfirms that their fundamentals remain solidly intact or relatively poor. From a contrarian perspective, these lists may also serve as a precursor to changes in institutional sentiment and underlying fundamentals.

(The purpose of this report is not to provide specific recommendations, but instead serve as a time-saving reference tool and starting point for investment ideas as the upcoming trading week unfolds. Of course, the results generated are not always perfect and users are strongly encouraged to perform their own due diligence on these names. Note that overbought and oversold conditions are based upon proprietary algorithms and quantitative models instead of conventional technical analysis indicators. As a supplement to this report, please refer to our Market Condition Summary to determine if market direction trends support a bullish or bearish investment bias over short-term, intermediate, and long-term timeframes.)

Q4 2008 Earnings Call

February 05, 2009, 5:00 pm ET

With HealthShares closing shop at year-end, including the former Diagnostics fund, investors who are interested in the space can create their own ETF comprised of companies from the ETF Innovators Preventive Medicine and Emerging Diagnostics Indexes. Below is a list of companies which have stocks listed for trading in the U.S. at over $1/share with a market cap of less than $10B, focusing on smaller companies which are more leveraged to diagnostics and represent possible takeover targets for larger players such as Roche (RHHBY.PK), Abbott Labs (ABT), and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ).

However, the smaller size for many of these companies also increases the investment risk, as illustrated by the plunge of over 80% in AspenBio Pharma (APPY) yesterday on disappointing preliminary clinical trial results for AppyScore as a screening test for appendicitis. Despite the massive decline yesterday, APPY rose by about 27% in the past month (from $6 on 12/16/08 to $7.63 on 1/16/09), providing many chances for investors and traders to take profits or at least let only their profits ride into the major binary event for the stock.

This is the Third Quarter 2008 edition of our ongoing hedge fund tracking series. Before reading this update, make sure you check out the preface to the series we're doing on Hedge Fund 13F's here.

The other funds we've already covered include:

Q3 2008 Earnings Call

October 28, 2008 5:00 pm ET

The average US stock went up 0.34% on the first trading day following their earnings reports during the second quarter reporting period.  That's a pretty good number considering the negative sentiment we saw leading up to earnings season.  Now that Wal-Mart (WMT) has reported, marking the unofficial end of the earnings season, it's time to highlight the big winners and losers. 

Below we highlight the stocks (currently trading above $10/share) that performed the best and worst on the first day in reaction to earnings.  As shown, UAUA reacted the most positively, rallying 68% following its 7/22 report.  UAUA was trailed by BBSI (39.7%), ATRO (38.8%), PDGI (33.7%) and WFC (32.7%).  Overstock.com (OSTK) leads the list of losers at -41%, followed by FCSX, CPHD and MFLX.  Other notables on the losers list include GRMN, SNDK, PACR and WFR.

With earnings season beginning to wind down in the medical devices and supplies industry, we figured it would be a good time to check in with Zacks senior analyst Tom Park. We were looking to see if there are any attractive buys among his coverage.

What was the last research report you issued, and what was your rating on the company?

On Thursday, Cepheid (CPHD) reported $42.1 million in quarterly revenues, a 55% jump from the $27.2 million reported in the same period last year. (Call Transcript)

Growth has been driven by hospitals' intent on countering the growing scourge of healthcare associated infections [HAI].

Below we highlight the Dow 30 stocks that have reported earnings this season along with the one-day change in response to their reports.  As shown, 13 of the 20 Dow stocks that have reported went up in reaction to earnings, with JPM going up the most at 13.5%.  JPM is followed by C, UTX, PFE, T and BAC. 

MRK got hit the hardest with a decline of 11%, followed by AXP and MSFT.  Overall, at least there have been more positives than negatives.  Of the 20 Dow stocks, 13 have beaten estimates while just 3 have missed.

Q2 2008 Earnings Call

July 24, 2008 4:30 pm ET

Recap of Fast Money, Wednesday June 25.

Fed Stays Steady

Stocks were up steady after the Fed kept rates steady for the first time since a series of rate cuts initiated last September. Bernanke said that downside risks to growth remain, but are less severe and inflation’s expectations have increased. Karen Finerman says Bernanke is trying to get the effects of raising rates without having to raise rates. Guy Adami thinks the Fed is just delaying and will eventually hike rates. Joe Terranova calls Bernanke “the biggest speculator in 2008, stating how he believes oil is going down.”

RIM Decline: Research in Motion (RIMM)

Although RIM reported a higher profit, it didn’t quite meet analyst expectations and was “an abomination after hours,” observed Dylan Ratigan. Najarian says this drop is a “great opportunity to add” especially with 2.3 million new subscribers and new releases on the horizon. Najarian says this is a great time to buy RIM.

Q1 2008 Earnings Call

May 1, 2007 4:30 pm ET

Bullish calls:

Waste Management (WMI): “This is a company that is really doing much better than the gross domestic product.... they're very shareholder-oriented... buy, buy, buy!...”
Dryships (DRYS): “The whole sector is coming back, and coming back hard... world trade is coming back.”
Frontline (FRO): “A 52-week high …But FRO's been the play... it's been a new-high machine!”
Atlas Energy Resources (ATN): “ATN is going higher, and I totally, totally think that that is a terrific natural gas play. You're in good shape.”
Kroger (KR): “I think the breakouts are for real. And I think you would do quite well in KR here …I think you’ve got a winner.”
Safeway (SWY)
Terex (TEX): “TEX has not kept up with Caterpillar … TEX is cheaper. It's got a great worldwide business … I think it plays, yes indeed, catch up to the rest of the group.”
Visa (V): “They give you the financials, without the downside credit risk, which is why they're not done going up!”
Cepheid (CPHD): “ …don't buy CPHD up here, and go buy BDX.”
Becton Dickinson (BDX): “I think that BDX has a much more solid earnings profile.”

Market Overview:

The Fed’s move to put $200 billion in liquidity into the markets sparked a rally on Tuesday, and Tim Seymour said the collaboration from Central banks in Canada and England gave new hope amid the current crisis. Spreads and Treasuries came down and the dollar found its way up. Pete Najarian gives CNBC's Steve Liesman credit for the rally in financials when he announced the Fed would give more help as necessary. Finerman was less enthusiastic and said the market rallied only to where it was last week. Adami said believed confidence was returning and short-squeezes were not the cause of the rally. However, Seymour countered by saying there was a large amount of covering by hedge funds and short squeezes were having an impact.

Before you read this, please know I do not own this stock. I do recommend it in my service. I am writing this because a hatchet job has been done on a product category that can save tens of thousands of lives and because a company's stock took a hit for no reason.

That company, Cepheid (CPHD), took a major hit Monday after the close due to an article in the Journal of the American Medical Association -- an article that should never have been published and if it was vetted, the people who agreed to its publication should check into a hospital - next time they are not feeling well - that does not do any MRSA testing.

Recap of Fast Money, Friday March 7. Click on a stock ticker for more analysis.
Market Overview: Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI), Google (GOOG)

Friday’s selloff saw the Dow stumble 1.22%, the S &P fall 0.8% and the Nasdaq trading down 0.3%. Guy Adami says the market hasn’t bottomed yet, but continues to like railroad stocks like BNI as well as natural gas. Najarian noted Google’s spectacular $40 drop and said the tech horsemen need a rest. Jeff Macke wouldn’t buy stocks unless they fall on a panic. The group looked at the Volatility Index and Najarian said when there is a big move in the VIX, it will be time to buy.

Financials: US Bancorp (USB), Goldman Sachs (GS)

Adami isn’t worried about the volume of put buying in USB, and says it is still a buy. Najarian agrees. Macke would start buying GS.

The best performing US stock of 2007, FSLR, is down 21.86% year to date.  The second best, ONXX, is down 49.51%.  The third and fourth best, MOS and CF, are up 22% and 16% respectively.  We broke the Russell 3,000 into deciles (10% of stocks in each decile) based on their 2007 performance and found that, on average, the best of 2007 have been the worst of 2008.

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(XLF) –Sweet charity emanating from Warren Buffett’s offer today to reinsure $800 million in municipal bond portfolios provided a sense of alleviation to Dow and S&P components. VIX volatility pulled sharply lower, and the Financial Sector SPDR ETF, the de facto temperature-taker of the trouble-making financial sector, pushed 1.6% higher to $26.95. Option action paints a somewhat different picture, one of traders all-too-knowing that the sector is cruising on a temporary mood of goodwill, and mindful of its capacity to crater – witness what happened yesterday with XLF component AIG, whose credit outlook today was cut from stable to negative by Standard & Poor’s due to its exposure to mortgage-backed securities. The 254,000 options trading actively as of the noon hour are trading twice as often to puts as to calls, with heavy buying in at the 27 put strike in February as well as March. Front-month action also showed willingness to buy puts at strikes as low as 26, with the market ascribing a slightly less than 1-in-4 chance at a break below 26 before Friday.