Cresud S.A.C.I.F. y A. ADR (CRESY)

All Comments on CRESY

  • commenter
    Chris C
    Oct 12 08:22 AM
    My Website
    No Safe Havens - But Plenty of Bargains [view article]
    So hedge funds had to cough up $400+ billion to pay for their Lehman's CDS positions. The market was very very nervous of more defaults before the settlement last Friday, but it looks like it's all been settled in a fairly orderly manner. Now one side is down $400+ billion and the other side is long $400+ billion. My guess is that the side that's now long $400+ billion is going to use their new cash to squeeze the heck out of the market shorts and make more money. What can be a better time to do this than now? So, perhaps, just perhaps, we can expect the rally of a lifetime soon as the shorts run for cover from a tsunami of buying. But, I might be completely wrong. Still, it is a scenario that makes sense. The world governments have done more than enough to unlock credit but I think credit was tight because of concerns over the Lehman CDS settlements. Now that is out of the way, anything can happen, which means that everything will probably happen all at once. Reply
  • commenter
    gamma65
    Oct 07 08:08 PM
    My Website
    The Topsoil Crisis: Dirt Isn't Cheap Anymore [view article]
    The equity and bond markets have benefited from a long period of low inflation, but ongoing and massive central bank liquidity injections point to a far less benign environment of elevated inflation ahead. Research by our firm, Agcapita Farmland Investment Partnership (Calgary, Canada based agriculture private equity firm – farmlandinvestmentpart...) shows investors must be prepared to rotate into asset classes with different characteristics. During the last commodity bull market & high inflation period in the 1970’s, equities materially underperformed farmland.
    - Western Canadian farmland went from around $100/acre to $550/acre (550% total return and 176% in inflation adjusted terms);
    - Cash held in a money market account barely kept ahead of inflation (6% inflation adjusted return); and the
    - S&P 500 index returned less than 2% per year (a loss of almost 50% in inflation in adjusted terms)

    We believe the world is still in the early stages of this current commodity bull market. When agriculture commodities prices are compared against their previous inflation adjusted highs they are significantly discounted implying scope for further increases:
    - Corn is US$ 5/bushel currently compared to US$16/bushel in 1974,
    - Wheat is US$ 7/bushel currently compared to US$27/bushel in 1974
    - Canadian farmland is C$ 660/acre currently compared to C$1,100/acre in 1981

    Another interesting metric is the long-term average ratio of the Commodities Research Bureau Index versus the S&P 500 which is currently around 1.5 times. Simplistically, this ratio indicates how much S&P 500 stock you can buy with a fixed basket of commodities. Some important points:
    - During the commodity bull market of the 1970s, the ratio was consistently higher than 2 times for over 10 years – it peaked at almost 4 times.
    - The ratio is currently at around 0.5 times - significantly below the 1.5 times long-term average, just slightly above the 0.15 all time low reached in 1999/2000 and still very far below the almost 4 times multiple reached in the last commodity bull market. We still appear to be at an all time low relative valuation between “hard assets" versus "stocks.”
    - If history is a guide, the ratio of hard assets to stocks will have moved much higher before this commodity bull market is over.
    - How? Stocks will continue to fall and/or commodities will continue to climb – most likely a serious combination of both as investors, fearing inflation, rotate out of stocks into commodities – the cycle of “inflation, rotation, hard assets”.
    Agcapita is a Calgary based, agriculture private equity firm that allows investors to cost effectively allocate a portion of their portfolios to hard assets in the form of Canadian farmland via its professionally managed Agcapita Farmland Investment Partnership. Agcapita Farmland Investment Partnership is the third in a family of private equity funds which has grown to almost $100 million in assets under management. Agcapita’s investment team has over 40 years private equity and fund management experience and over $1 billion in total career transactions and previously managed a group of emerging market funds with almost C$500 million in assets for one of the largest banks in Europe.
    Reply
  • commenter
    Eoin Gleeson
    Oct 03 07:39 AM
    My Website
    The Topsoil Crisis: Dirt Isn't Cheap Anymore [view article]
    Another good play on the black earth region is Stockholm listed Trigon Agri.

    balticbusinessnews.com...
     Reply
  • commenter
    kotika98
    Oct 01 11:09 PM
    The Topsoil Crisis: Dirt Isn't Cheap Anymore [view article]
    somebody already mentioned that the ex-soviet block holds huge amounts of land unused, i'd like to add that the soviet union was definitely an importer of american grain, not an exporter. It is true also that people are actively buying up agricultural land in russia to grow grain. Before 1914 Russia was feeding entire europe, and we may see this again. Reply
  • commenter
    Jakester
    Oct 01 04:23 PM
    The Topsoil Crisis: Dirt Isn't Cheap Anymore [view article]
    Cresud will be a hugely undervalued stock IF Argentina ever gets its financial sh__ together. Confiscatory taxes and Peronista populism are threatening to bankrupt the country yet again. Reply
  • commenter
    Dan O'Leary
    Oct 01 02:09 PM
    The Topsoil Crisis: Dirt Isn't Cheap Anymore [view article]
    Excellent article and great comments. Goes well with Tom Friedman's book Hot, Flat, and Crowded. Reply
  • commenter
    Itsonlymoney
    Oct 01 01:44 PM
    The Topsoil Crisis: Dirt Isn't Cheap Anymore [view article]
    @Dan S1, welcome to the planet Earth. Other peoples problems are your problem, like it or not. We are interconnected and you can't just enjoy the benefits of other peoples success without sharing in the obligations toward the less fortunate. Someone once said "For unto whomsoever much is given, of him shall be much required: and to whom men have committed much, of him they will ask the more."

    I agree that population expansion must be curtailed for the long term survival of our planet. In the mean time, free universal education has proven to limit population growth not encourage it. "Socialist" Europe has a declining native population.

     Reply
  • commenter
    Itsonlymoney
    Oct 01 01:27 PM
    The Topsoil Crisis: Dirt Isn't Cheap Anymore [view article]
    Topsoil may have been more important to American economic expansion than oil.

    American corn-centric farming has been mining topsoil for generations and in the process has been flushing this precious resource down the Mississippi to everyone's detriment. What hasn't been flushed has been rendered into a largely dead substance useful only for holding agricultural chemicals.

    We need to preserve and build our topsoil and ensure that it is alive and healthy again. The growing organic movement promotes this trend. Our very lives depend on it.     Reply
  • commenter
    jimmy46
    Oct 01 12:34 PM
    The Topsoil Crisis: Dirt Isn't Cheap Anymore [view article]
    Iran came to the US because the dollar is so cheap,
    the price in Canada or Aus. dollars is much higher.     Reply
  • commenter
    Deep_Blue
    Oct 01 12:29 PM
    The Topsoil Crisis: Dirt Isn't Cheap Anymore [view article]
    See the September or past august version of national geographic magazine - good pictures but even a better story Reply
  • commenter
    Dan S1
    Oct 01 10:06 AM
    The Topsoil Crisis: Dirt Isn't Cheap Anymore [view article]
    We speak about the depletion of land with good soil, but we also need to discuss the ever growing human population of this planet. That is the real problem!!! With more socialism prevalent in countries today, governments are basically subsidizing the population growth beyond what a free market would allow. For instance, if I have 10 kids in the US, my income taxes go down due to child tax credits and the cost of all 10 kids fees in a public school per year is about $1500 total. I propose that whomever has a certain number of kids has to pay everything for those kids and not get subsidized. I am willing to subsidize birth control. I don't want other people's problems to be my problem and vice versa, which is only fair. Reply
  • commenter
    nickgogerty
    Oct 01 09:40 AM
    My Website
    The Topsoil Crisis: Dirt Isn't Cheap Anymore [view article]
    If true, the Ukraine is a very strategic asset, the truth is large amounts of arable land is unused. 23m hectares in various Ex-soviet Countries. www.finfacts.com/irish... Reply
  • commenter
    syndicat
    Oct 01 07:41 AM
    The Topsoil Crisis: Dirt Isn't Cheap Anymore [view article]
    To digress from an excellent article, how does Home Depot sell topsoil that comes from Canada in 40 lb. bags for $1.29 each? I mean, think of how many times it has to be handled and moved, inventoried, etc.

    You mention Russia. I was there a month ago and the current hot investment trend is buying up former collective farms. Before WW1 Czarist Russia was the largest grain exporter in the world.     Reply
  • commenter
    css1971
    Oct 01 05:01 AM
    My Website
    The Topsoil Crisis: Dirt Isn't Cheap Anymore [view article]
    Very interesting article.

    Google for Terra Preta.

    There are a couple of producers of pyrolysis units which can produce both bio-char/agrichar for soil improvement, and, oil and gas for energy. The inputs are biological agricultural and domestic waste, which rather makes them carbon negative.

    Not big at the moment, but as they say, every problem is an opportunity.     Reply
  • commenter
    The hand
    Oct 01 04:33 AM
    My Website
    The Topsoil Crisis: Dirt Isn't Cheap Anymore [view article]
    great article. Reply
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