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Friday, October 19, 2012, 12:48 PM More on yesterday's Goldman oil call: It includes a cool chart plotting the breakeven point on all of the planet's major oil projects. Goldman estimates the industry needs $115 oil to be cash flow neutral on its exploration vs. just $84 four years ago. "Further capex growth from current levels will likely be more constrained unless oil prices move higher." 7 Comments [Commodities, Energy]
Thursday, October 18, 2012, 9:52 AM More from Goldman's oil call: With the Seaway pipeline ramping capacity by early 2013 to 400K b/d from the current 150K, Goldman expects the current $20+ spread between Brent and WTI crude to narrow to just $4 over the coming months. A chart of BNO vs. USO YTD. Is a reversal coming or is Goldman just stocking up on Brent? 4 Comments [Commodities, Quick Ideas]
Thursday, October 11, 2012, 3:43 PM Unimaginable even a few years ago, booming domestic supplies have major traders applying for licenses to export substantial amounts of oil from the U.S. for the first time in decades, reports the FT. Exports would not only affect worldwide trading patterns, but also put pressure on the price of Brent crude, which currently sits at a hefty premium to the U.S. benchmark. 43 Comments [Energy, Commodities]
Tuesday, October 9, 2012, 8:22 AM West Texas crude pushes past $90/bbl. on rising tension between Turkey and Syria, as yesterday's pipeline blast raises concerns about supply disruptions. Meanwhile, Brent and WTI crude see its largest spread in a year, widening to nearly $23/barrel, largely due to Mideast tension which gives Brent price support; WTI crude supplies remain at multi-month highs. Comment! [Commodities, Energy, Global & FX]
Monday, October 8, 2012, 3:18 PM Total (TOT) Oil Trading, one of the world’s largest oil trading groups, warned IOSCO during its manipulation probe of “inaccurate pricing” in energy market benchmarks underpinning billions of dollars of trading each day in contracts such as Brent and WTI. It's not good news after the discovery of widespread manipulation of Libor, the benchmark for borrowing in interbank lending. 7 Comments [Commodities]
Sunday, October 7, 2012, 5:16 AM Mid-East and North African energy producers intend to invest $740B on projects over the next five years, led by Saudi Arabia with $165B and UAE with $107B. High crude prices are allowing the countries to restart schemes that they delayed because of the financial crisis. 1 Comment [Energy]
Friday, October 5, 2012, 6:00 AM Russia could make a radical shift in policy and allow western crude producers to own oil licenses in the Arctic, Energy Minister Alexander Novak has told the FT. Until now, Russia has awarded such licenses only to state-owned companies, with foreign firms taking just minority stakes in projects. However, Russia needs to attract Western know-how and money for it to fully exploit its Arctic resources. 8 Comments [Energy, Top Stories]
Thursday, October 4, 2012, 12:11 PM Also of interest regarding oil's big rise today is noted contrarian indicator Dennis Gartman getting bearish on Texas tea after it's fallen $12/barrel in 3 weeks. "The collapse of the Iranian rial and the possibility of regime change have the energy markets in thrall and rallies are to be sold into!" USO +2.5%. 7 Comments [Commodities, On the Move]
Thursday, October 4, 2012, 11:49 AM Crude oil futures (OIL +2.2%) bounce off yesterday's 4% drop; traders may be betting that prices fell too hard, and Middle East tensions are escalating after Turkey fired on targets in Syria. Oil servicers such as Halliburton (HAL +2.4%) and Schlumberger (SLB +0.8%) are rising, and the move is lifting refiners: TSO +3.5%, VLO +3.3%, MPC +1.3%, WNR +1.3%. Comment! [Energy, Commodities, On the Move]
Wednesday, October 3, 2012, 2:23 PM A two-year G-20 probe into whether the unregulated physical oil market is vulnerable to manipulation and needs tighter supervision looks set to end this week with a report that effectively endorses the current system. The IOSCO is backpedaling from earlier calls for tougher industry oversight, even as average U.S. retail gasoline prices hover near record levels. Comment! [Energy, Commodities]
Wednesday, October 3, 2012, 10:48 AM After a brief pop higher on EIA data showing an unexpected draw in oil stocks, WTI crude resumes its sharp decline, -2.7% to $89.38/barrel. What inflation worry? The price of crude has now fallen by about $10 since the Fed's QE∞ announcement on September 14. 5 Comments [Commodities, On the Move]
Wednesday, September 26, 2012, 11:19 AM Oil's recoupling to China and emerging markets has made it even more dependent on China's economic miracle continuing than investors might think. "The stronger the global economy, the higher the oil price, the stronger China's demand. And vice versa, the weaker, the weaker, the weaker," Deutsche Bank's Paul Sankey argues. Comment! [Energy, Commodities, Global & FX]
Wednesday, September 26, 2012, 10:19 AM Top global oil trader Vitol has continued to buy and trade Iranian fuel oil, Reuters reports, highlighting the challenges facing Western efforts to sanction Iran. Switzerland-based Vitol, which isn't bound by EU sanctions on Iran, reportedly bought 2M barrels of fuel oil from Iran for power generation and offered it to Chinese traders. 2 Comments [Energy, Commodities, Global & FX]
Tuesday, September 25, 2012, 4:25 AM International regulators have withdrawn proposals for tougher oversight of the physical oil market after opposition from the IEA, OPEC and major oil companies, the FT reports. Regulators had wanted to use only completed deals to set benchmarks and enforce mandatory reporting of transaction data, but will settle for the current system of bids and offers despite acknowledging the potential for manipulation. 2 Comments [Top Stories, Global & FX, Energy]
Friday, September 21, 2012, 3:54 PM Maybe behind the plunge in crude earlier this week: Speculative longs were near an all-time high as of Tuesday, according to the CFTC's Commitment of Traders report. A chart of speculator positions vs. the price of oil over time shows spiking longs often presaging a quick reversal in price. (via) 1 Comment [Commodities]
Thursday, September 20, 2012, 10:27 AM Changes in pipeline flows and the use of rail routes to carry crude produced inland to the U.S. coast are leading to big bets on a narrowing spread between Brent and WTI crude. “Volume in WTI-Brent has been massive over the last few weeks," says a dealer in swaps tracking both oil benchmarks." Many people anticipate the pipeline logjam is about to clear up." Comment! [Energy, Commodities]

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Teucrium WTI Crude Oil ETF