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Thursday, January 19, 2012, 8:05 AM Morgan Stanley's non-comprehensive table of EU banks' participation in the ECB's LTRO last month shows Italian and Spanish lenders diving in with both feet, with many more than satisfying their 2012 funding needs. "It is clear that Italian and Spanish mid-caps have no other option than to rely upon the LTRO." Data from French lenders has not yet been obtained. 2 Comments [Global & FX, Financials]
Thursday, January 19, 2012, 6:55 AM Commerzbank (CRZBY.PK) says it can meet the capital requirements of the European Banking Authority by the end of June without asking for government aid. Shares +11% in Frankfurt trading. Comment! [Global & FX, On the Move, Financials]
Tuesday, January 17, 2012, 7:32 AM Formerly bearish on all things financial in Europe, CLSA's Chris Wood eyes rumors the ECB's LTRO on Feb. 29 could hit €1T (LTRO #1 was €489B) and reverses his view. He sees the euro continuing to sink, but EU financials wiping out the shorts in a "violent bear market rally." Comment! [Global & FX, Quick Ideas]
Friday, January 13, 2012, 8:44 AM Commerzbank (CRZBY.PK) climbs 4.7% in Frankfurt on a Handelsblatt story reporting CEO Martin Blessing saying the bank can raise €5.3B in necessary capital without assistance from the government, already a 25% owner of the lender. Shares -74% Y/Y. Comment! [Global & FX, Financials]
Friday, December 23, 2011, 9:42 AM S&P's Scott Bugie says the ECB's €489B liquidity infusion Wednesday was just that - liquidity, not solvency, and by itself will not prevent threatened ratings downgrades of the EU's banks. "It's kicking the can a long way down the road rather than just a little bit, but in the end it is still kicking the big old can down the road." Comment! [Global & FX, Financials]
Thursday, December 15, 2011, 11:16 AM Numbers: BNP Paribas (BNPQY.PK) has $2.5T of assets against $80B of TCE - 31X leverage. The big 3 French banks have footings of $6T, nearly triple the size of France's GDP. "Stuffed with sovereign debt backed by no capital ... it's only a matter of time before (they) topple into the abyss ... and that includes German (banks) too," writes David Stockman. Comment! [Global & FX, Financials]
Thursday, December 15, 2011, 7:13 AM Commerzbank (CRZBY.PK) is leading European shares higher after a report of some fancy footwork that will allow the bank to get bailed out without it appearing so. The lender is negotiating with the government to transfer its real-estate saddled Eurohypo unit into a state-owned bad bank using clever accounting to make it seem a legitimate sale. Shares +4.6%. 2 Comments [Global & FX, Financials]
Wednesday, December 14, 2011, 7:01 AM The German cabinet is set to approve starting back up the country's SoFFin bank rescue fund, but will not force its lenders into recapitalizing. Recent chatter had the country's finmin Wolfgang Schauble about to do a Hank Paulson and demand the nation's banks accept government funds for a recapitalization. Comment! [Global & FX, Financials]
Tuesday, December 13, 2011, 4:47 PM Unicredit shareholders meet Thursday to approve a €7.5B rights issue that will be eyed closely by the entire banking industry. "If they fail, everyone else will fail," says an industry source. EU banks need to raise €115B in capital based on the latest EBA stress test, an amount that won't be reached by fancy accounting and selling assets. Unicredit has the 2nd highest capital needs. Banco Santander (STD) takes the #1 spot, needing €15B. Comment! [Global & FX, Financials]
Friday, December 9, 2011, 12:54 PM Goldman upgrades Europe's banks from underweight to neutral, believing the new funding arrangements by the ECB (and Fed) should help the lenders make it through the economic downturn. Of particular import is the ECB offering 3 year loans which should allow "banks to detach their funding cost from that of sovereigns." Comment! [Global & FX, Financials]
Thursday, December 8, 2011, 12:47 PM A check on European bank shares in light of the ECB disappointment and stress test results showing the necessity for bigger capital raises than expected. Deutsche Bank (DB -6.5%), Commerzbank (CRZBY.PK -10.4%), RBS -7.4%, SocGen (SCGLY.PK -9.3%). European financial ETF: EUFN -4.4%. Comment! [Global & FX, Financials]
Thursday, December 8, 2011, 11:18 AM Results begin to leak out about the latest (likely irrelevant) EU bank stress tests. The EBA concludes the continent's banks need to raise €114.7B, €8B more than the October estimate. German lenders need €13.1B, Italians €15.4B. U.K banks (the collective) apparently are not in need of fresh capital. 2 Comments [Global & FX, Financials, Breaking News]
Wednesday, December 7, 2011, 3:09 PM S&P also places several of the large bank groups across the eurozone on "CreditWatch Negatvie," including BNP Paribas (BNPQY.PK), Commerzbank (CRZBY.PK), Credit Agricole (CRARY.PK), Deutsche Bank (DB), SocGen (SCGLY.PK). (previous) 2 Comments [Global & FX, Financials, Breaking News]
Tuesday, December 6, 2011, 9:30 AM Unlike the downgrade of the U.S., a rating cut for EU sovereigns might actually mean something as European banks are far larger (assets as a % of GDP) and far more intertwined with governments than their American cousins, points out Mark Grant. Lower sovereign ratings are then almost certain to increase already high bank funding costs. Comment! [Global & FX, Financials]
Monday, December 5, 2011, 7:30 AM European shares are nicely higher in the face (or because) of reports Germany is considering the nationalization of Commerzbank (CRZBY.PK), the nation's 2nd largest lender. The bank recently said it needs about €5B in capital, and today offered to raise about €600M by offering to repurchase €1.2B in subordinated debt at €0.50 on the euro. Shares -5.1% in Frankfurt. Comment! [Global & FX, Financials]
Friday, November 25, 2011, 12:47 PM Germany's Commerzbank (CRZBY.PK), hammered earlier this week after stating it needs to raise €5B in capital, is now thinking of spinning off its holdings of at-risk sovereign debt into a separate, government-supported company, according to the FT. German citizens, who are becoming increasingly agitated over their government's bailout efforts, might not be thrilled with such an idea. 3 Comments [Financials, Global & FX]

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