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Staples
Stocks Potentially Impacted by SEC's Enforcement of Regulation SHO [view article]
It's so odd to me. when DNDN spiked into the 20's i remember peopleposting that they couldn't short the stock anymore, their broker didn't have and couldn't find anymore shares to short for their clients. I guess things have changed a little bit since than.What would happen in todays market, ok before 5 days ago, when naked short selling was allowed.
what would have happened. I'm lost on this one as usual.
Billy Staples
for a prez shirt thedarksize.com
for a hard to get stock market joke thedowjokesreport.com
Hang in there all, but not like I did with apple
Oh unofficial poll.....what do you think happens in October for DNDN
Yea or nay for Provenge? Reply
Stocks Potentially Impacted by SEC's Enforcement of Regulation SHO [view article]
It is one thing to state an intention to enforce a rule - and quite another to do it. The SEC has ignored its own disciplinary threats before. Often, it is not investors trying to manipulate stocks, but brokers themselves so the SEC has full authority to obtain compliance with SHO if they choose to do so. With considerable skepticism, time will tell. ReplyStocks Potentially Impacted by SEC's Enforcement of Regulation SHO [view article]
Didn't anyone see McCain on TV criticizing the SEC chairman, saying he'd fire him? Kind of funny, one of your own voting tribe and he acts like hes above his own party. ReplyStocks Potentially Impacted by SEC's Enforcement of Regulation SHO [view article]
Why are we talking about this now?The law was enacted in 2004. Cox says he is now going to enforce it, in 2008? What do we pay these people for? Why isn't Cox standing up before Congress trying to defend his refusal to enforce the law for the last four years? Reply
Stocks Potentially Impacted by SEC's Enforcement of Regulation SHO [view article]
You could eventually add some of the CanRoys to this list, particularly those that have a small cap. and aren't in the oil-gas sectors. ReplyStocks Potentially Impacted by SEC's Enforcement of Regulation SHO [view article]
I can't agree more with you. But there seem to be some justice, the first victims are the banks that lent the money enabling those same hedge funds to drive them to the bottom. ReplyEditors
General Discussion on CSGP
Is this a buy or a sell? Reply25 Good Short Candidates [view article]
With regards to ATVI,A short term loss could be expected for ATVI if you a speaking of only a month. However, like most of this industry ATVI is Q4 heavy and has their biggest products lined up for late Q3 (Quake Wars) and into Q4.
Quake Wars won't sell absurd amounts because they are limited to the PC, for now. What is very good for the game is the fact that it comes out at the right time. No other FPS has been released for the PC in this vein since Battlefield 2042 or, to a lesser extent, Stalker. It has a full two weeks before anything worthwhile comes along to challenge it (Bioshock) so it has a chance to ship a good amount during that oh so important launch.
Furthermore, the lackluster sales of Call of Duty 3 will not be evident with COD4, in my opinion, given that the developer for COD4 is the original Call of Duty developer. Tony Hawk and Guitar Hero should have decent sales as well, especially given the expanding market share of the music based games and a dedicated player base who already own the peripheral Guitar. All in all I feel that by December you will see a very healthy ATVI. Reply
25 Good Short Candidates [view article]
Mr. Hamidi,I never understood the logic of "if it has gone up already, it must be good." Essentially you are saying because a stock (like CVS) is more expensive, that makes it better. CVS is bad at $36, so at $39 I believe it would be worse... Reply
25 Good Short Candidates [view article]
MDC,I too would assume there is no connection either between one month's performance and fundamental factors, but doing the monthly count is purely for fun - the real reason is to continue to build a database that I can use to judge six month, one year, two year performance. I wouldn't be surprised if there was something to be said for F/A though; although it might be a dying breed with the ultra-margin hedgies out there with black-box models, don't discount it.
Re: General Electric, I tried to make it clear that I personally wouldn't be short, but it is "suggested" by my model. I'm the guilty party for programming it, but I also know why GE is there - the model is doing its job. My usual refrain for a stock like GE appearing is that the real value-added work is to figure out the best of the bunch... which I see as stocks like CVS and ERTS. Reply
25 Good Short Candidates [view article]
"but your closing sentence: "should not be trading near their 52-week high." is a first line risk control measure that immediately eliminates this as a "good" short candidate for any professional trader I know, including myself. In a general bull market, we do not short stocks at, near or just above their 52-wk high. On the contrary, it's generally a good idea to buy in these situations, although I wouldn't want to own CVS for reasons you mentioned, as well as other internal research we have on the sector and CVS in particular. Remember markets will stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. "I completely agree with this sentiment. One ticker comes to mind. CROX. I think at some point this probably becomes a great short, but I am not stepping in front of a freight train to get run over. In my view the valuation is somewhere between absurd and insane in terms of pricing in future growth expectations, but who knows how high the market can build this "castle in the sky". Reply
25 Good Short Candidates [view article]
"MDC,All of the data is fundamental; I update long and short once per month and judge them accordingly, but I think one could extend each hypothetical portfolio 6-12 months and still do fine."
Perhaps I'm missing something here, but I don't follow this. In my view, there is absolutely no connection whatsoever between 1-month stock price performance and fundamental factors. Over a 1-month time frame, stock price behavior is probably some combination of technical factors (I do believe in things like stock price trends and oversold/overbought) or just statistical noise (for those more inclined to random walk theory).
"At the same time, the company just doesn't excite me enough to say I would buy it either - I'd prefer to grab more focused companies in areas I like than get all the diversification that is GE."
I agree one can probably find stocks with more upside then GE, but that is different then saying the stock is an attractive short.
"I can't argue the past with ERTS or ATVI, but I can say that with ERTS, their development seems primarily geared to Sony's platform, followed by Microsoft. Nintendo is far in the distance in terms of product offerings and hence revenues, but with the Wii outselling the PS3 I can't see how that translates positively for ERTS in game sales. PS2 was the dominant console for a long time, and many game developers certainly benefitted from that because Sony wasn't focused on game development and let others control that space. That just isn't the story with Nintendo..."
This is true, but it might prove dangerous from the short side to underestimate just how quickly ERTS might be able to turn the ship around and ramp up development for the Wii and start having success on that platform. In my view, the video game industry is still one of secular growth, and in general I think one of the best investment strategies is to go long companies in long-term growth industries which are experiencing "temporary" problems. The key question is are ERTS' problems "temporary"? Time will tell, but if I were forced to bet, I'd bet on them fixing the issues and developing a strong line-up of titles for the Wii that bring the company back to strong profitability.
I appreciate the discussion. Reply
25 Good Short Candidates [view article]
Your reasoning behind your CVS short is fine, but your closing sentence: "should not be trading near their 52-week high." is a first line risk control measure that immediately eliminates this as a "good" short candidate for any professional trader I know, including myself. In a general bull market, we do not short stocks at, near or just above their 52-wk high. On the contrary, it's generally a good idea to buy in these situations, although I wouldn't want to own CVS for reasons you mentioned, as well as other internal research we have on the sector and CVS in particular. Remember markets will stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Reply25 Good Short Candidates [view article]
MDC,All of the data is fundamental; I update long and short once per month and judge them accordingly, but I think one could extend each hypothetical portfolio 6-12 months and still do fine.
As a rule, I don't filter picks - but I was torn about leaving GE in there because I agree with many of the things you are saying. At the same time, the company just doesn't excite me enough to say I would buy it either - I'd prefer to grab more focused companies in areas I like than get all the diversification that is GE.
I can't argue the past with ERTS or ATVI, but I can say that with ERTS, their development seems primarily geared to Sony's platform, followed by Microsoft. Nintendo is far in the distance in terms of product offerings and hence revenues, but with the Wii outselling the PS3 I can't see how that translates positively for ERTS in game sales. PS2 was the dominant console for a long time, and many game developers certainly benefitted from that because Sony wasn't focused on game development and let others control that space. That just isn't the story with Nintendo...
Thanks for the comments. Reply
Laudani
25 Good Short Candidates [view article]
Most of these are crowded picks. Too vulnerable to a short squeeze. You need to go back to the drawing board. Reply