Tue, Mar. 3, 6:16 AM
Nov. 11, 2014, 12:15 PM
- Newly-public Vivint Solar (VSLR -21.6%) has nosedived after missing Q3 EPS estimates and guiding for Q4 revenue of $5.5M-$6.5M, below a $7.3M consensus. Installations are expected to fall to 45MW-47MW from Q3's 49MW.
- Rivals SolarCity (SCTY -3%) and SunPower (SPWR -3.2%) are following Vivint lower, as are several other solar names. RGSE -6.2%. ENPH -5.7%. CSIQ -2.5%. JKS -2.2%. DQ -4.1%. CSUN -2.7%.
- Solar ETFs: KWT, TAN
Aug. 1, 2014, 12:26 PM
- Solar stocks are underperforming (TAN -4%) amid a market selloff after SunPower (SPWR -8.5%) posted mixed Q2 results and provided Q3/2014 guidance ranges with midpoints below consensus.
- SunPower also announced it's building a new plant (Fab 5) that could go live in 2017 and eventually produce 700MW+/year of modules, boosting its capacity by over 50%. "Our share has been in single digits for a while and demand for the last 24 months suggests that we can expand share," says CEO Tom Werner.
- The announcement comes 6 weeks after SolarCity (SCTY -3.5%) unveiled plans to build a 1GW+ module plant with newly-acquired Silevo's help, and said it will later build "one or more significantly larger plants at an order of magnitude greater annual production capacity."
- Minimal capacity investments, together with rising U.S./Asian demand, have helped module prices stabilize following gut-wrenching declines in prior years.
- Also: SunPower stated on its CC (transcript) it hasn't decided whether to create a solar project YieldCo similar to SunEdison's (SUNE -4.3%) TerraForm Power (TERP -4.7%), which recently turned in a strong IPO. "It does not look like the company is likely to make a decision anytime soon," says Raymond James.
- Nonetheless, Brean has upgraded SunPower to Buy, citing optimism about strong demand and healthy pricing.
- Other notable decliners: FSLR -3.6%. TSL -8.4%. JKS -6%. CSIQ -5.6%. CSUN -5.7%. YGE -5%. SOL -4.5%. ENPH -5.8%. RGSE -4.5%. HSOL -3.9%. JASO -4.4%.
May 28, 2014, 6:59 AM
May 13, 2014, 2:34 PM
- China Sunergy (CSUN +14.1%) now expects Q1 solar cell/module shipments to be above a prior guidance range of 130MW-140MW. Gross margin is still expected to be in a mid-single digit range.
- The guidance hike comes 6 days after Canadian Solar hiked its Q1 shipment forecast. Yingli and Trina previously issued Q1 warnings.
- Full Q1 results are due on May 28.
May 7, 2014, 11:45 AM
- A Q1 beat and full-year guidance hike aren't enough to keep First Solar (FSLR -4.2%) from selling off. Possibly contributing: In spite of the guidance hike, First Solar stated on its CC (transcript) Q2 EPS "will be significantly lower" than a $0.60 consensus due to project timings; that implies 2014 results will be very back-end loaded.
- Also: First Solar disclosed in its earnings slides (.pdf) its expected future systems/3rd-party module revenue is down $400M from the end of 2013 to $7.1B. However, expected module shipments are up by 100MW to 2.8GW, and potential booking opportunities have risen by 1.6GW to 12.2GW.
- Module production totaled 441MW, -1% Q/Q and +19% Y/Y. Conversion efficiency rose 10 bps Q/Q and 60 bps Y/Y to 13.5%, with lead-line efficiency rising 30 bps Q/Q and 120 bps Y/Y to 14.2%. The company is aiming for 18.1%-18.9% lead-line efficiency by 2017.
- Other solar stocks are also off (TAN -2.8%), as investors continue showing a take-no-prisoners attitude towards momentum stocks in general. Canadian Solar (CSIQ +0.3%) has given back the premarket gains it saw following a Q1 guidance hike.
- Notable decliners: SCTY -8.8%. SUNE -7%. TSL -5.5%. CSUN -5.1%. YGE -4.8%. SPWR -4.2%. DQ -5.7%.
Mar. 4, 2014, 1:34 PM
- With the help of positive earnings news from Trina and Yingli, volatile solar stocks are among the standouts (TAN +6%) on a very good day for equities.
- Trina posted mixed Q4 results, but also issued a strong 2014 module shipment forecast. Yingli has pre-announced its Q4 module shipments will be soundly above prior guidance.
- Notable gainers: SPWR +8.6%. JASO +8%. CSUN +6.6%. CSIQ +7.3%. STRI +10.1%. DQ +8.4%. SOL +6%.
- SunEdison (SUNE +10.5%) is taking off with the help of a Morgan Stanley upgrade. Analyst Timothy Radcliff thinks the commercial-scale solar market could grow to 129GW by 2018, with a rush of activity prior to a 2017 federal tax credit cut. He also thinks SunEdison's solar project yieldco spinoff could sport a $1.6B valuation within 12-18 months, and notes such instruments "trade at premium valuations given [their] predictable and growing cash flows."
- JinkoSolar (JKS +14.8%) is more than recouping yesterday's post-earnings losses with the help of positive commentary. Roth (Buy) notes Jinko's 2014 module guidance of 2.3GW-2.5GW beat the firm's 2.1GW estimate, and thinks Jinko is the first Chinese company to see its non-silicon processing costs drop below $0.40/watt.
Dec. 5, 2013, 6:05 AM
Nov. 7, 2013, 9:53 AM
- China Sunergy (CSUN -18.3%) shares are getting pummeled after improved Q2 results but downcast guidance.
- Revenue expanded 16.5% Q/Q to $71.9M. Shipments climbed 23.3% to 126.4MW. Module ASP climbed 6.8% Q/Q to $0.63/watt.
- Gross margin expanded to 9.3% from 0.4% in Q1.
- Management warned that "during the second quarter, Chinese banks significantly tightened credit facilities to solar companies, which caused us to face a constrained working capital and reduced our ability to procure adequate inventory for subsequent production. As such, we anticipate lower shipment volume and profitability for the third quarter of 2013, and correspondingly, we also anticipate lower total shipment for full year 2013."
- The company now expects shipments in Q3 of 110MW with low single-digit margins. For the full year, the company revises guidance down to 440MW-480MW from a previous 500MW-550MW.
Nov. 7, 2013, 9:40 AM
Nov. 4, 2013, 12:56 PM
- Positive Q3 guidance revisions from Canadian Solar (previous) and Daqo (DQ +11.2%) are fueling another massive rally in solar stocks, some of which jumped last Friday thanks to blowout Q3 numbers from First Solar (FSLR +4.6%).
- Canadian hiked the midpoint of its Q3 module shipment guidance range by more than 10%, and the midpoint of its gross margin guidance range by 800 bps. Daqo has upped its polysilicon shipment range to 1,200-1,275 MT from a prior 1,000 MT, albeit while slightly lowering its wafer shipment guidance to 6.5-6.6 MT from prior 6.8 MT (shipping delays are blamed).
- The guidance hikes follow a string of positive Q2 reports from Chinese solar firms in August, as companies saw both their sales and margins benefit from growing local demand, diminishing overcapacity, and strong shipments to the high-margin Japanese market. Credit Suisse recently predicted improving demand could lead excess Chinese supply to evaporate by late 2014 or 2015.
- Also: Suntech (STP +13.6%) has officially reached a deal to sell its large and bankrupt Wuxi, China unit to solar cell maker Shunfeng (previous), SunPower (SPWR +10.9%) has announced it's buying module cleaning robot developer Greenbiotics, and SolarCity (SCTY +16.4%) has announced (as part of its seemingly non-stop financing binge) it's selling $54.4M in solar asset-backed notes maturing in Dec. 2026.
- Today's winners, aside from the aforementioned companies: JKS +9.8%. JASO +9.2%. RSOL +8.3%. LDK +6.5%. HSOL +5.2%. YGE +7.4%. CSUN +6%. SOL +6.9%. SUNE +3.5%. TSL +9.7%.
- Solar ETFs: KWT, TAN
Aug. 27, 2013, 11:06 AM
- Citing insufficient cash, LDK (LDK -8%) says it will delay a semi-annual debt coupon payment due tomorrow.
- LDK's cash/bank deposit balance fell to $285.4M at the end of Q2 from $342.5M at the end of Q1. Meanwhile, its debt balance was north of $2.65B at the end of Q2.
- Raymond James' Pavel Molchanov: "LDK's balance sheet makes it a 'zombie company.' It only survives due to continued bailouts from local or provincial authorities." The Suntech saga suggests Chinese authorities aren't as quick to embrace solar bailouts as they once were.
- While many Chinese solar names are now reporting fairly healthy gross margins, LDK's remain bleak. Q2 GM was -46.9% vs. -57% in Q1 and -39.1% a year earlier.
- LDK's balance sheet and cash issues are a big reason it has largely missed out on this year's giant solar stock rally. Nonetheless, the company and its peers are heading in the same direction (TAN -4.3%) today. YGE -6.9%. CSIQ -5.8%. SPWR -4.9%. CSUN -4.5%. SCTY -4.3%. TSL -4.2%. SUNE -5.7%. FSLR -3.2%.
- JA Solar (JASO -4.8%) is also among the decliners, even though it has announced a deal to develop 300MW worth of Chinese solar plants.
- LDK's Q2 results: I, II
Jul. 2, 2013, 8:59 AM
May 20, 2013, 10:45 AMJA Solar (JASO +34.4%) is now skying higher following its Q1 beat and full-year shipment guidance reiteration, and is providing fresh fuel for the colossal solar stock rally that started last fall (TAN +4.4%). TSL +13.3%. DQ +20%. LDK +9.9%. JKS +10.3%. SCTY +11.6%. SOL +9.4%. CSUN +8.9%. SPWR +4.9%. ASTI +9.4%. YGE +8.4%. CSIQ +6.6%. The fact 38% of JA's Q1 module shipments went to Japan (a market with higher ASPs/margins than China) is likely going over well with investors. | 6 Comments
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