Tue, May 19, 11:26 AM
- Solar stocks are selling off for the second day in a row (TAN -1.7%) as Yingli (YGE -42.4%) plunges into penny stock territory after disclosing in its 2014 annual report (filed after the close last Friday) its financial woes "raise substantial doubt about [its] ability to continue as a going concern."
- Decliners include Chinese firms JinkoSolar (JKS -3.3%), ReneSola (SOL -6.4%), Trina (TSL -4.8%), and China Sunergy (CSUN -6.5%), as well as China-exposed Canadian Solar (CSIQ -4.8%), which yesterday held its investor day (presentations can be found here).
- U.S. firms SunPower (SPWR -3%) and Enphase (ENPH -2.9%) are also off. Enphase's decline comes in spite of an upgrade to Strong Buy from Needham.
- Yingli CFO Wang Yiyu downplays his company's disclosure, which has sparked fears Yingli will be the next Suntech or LDK Solar. "Potential risks don’t mean they will happen and don’t mean Yingli is facing or will face such risks. They shouldn’t cause an overreaction.”
- Wolfe Research's Gordon Johnson (formerly with Axiom, bearish on solar for a long time) thinks Yingli's disclosure has "caused a lot of investors to overlook massive debts on the balance sheets of pretty much EVERY publicly traded Chinese solar company," and that a Yingli liquidation could affect credit access for peers.
- RBC's Mahesh Sanganeria, however, argues Yingli's problems are company-specific. "It is well understood by now that global solar demand is strong this year, as evidenced by a number of large contract signing announcements, active solar project development and acquisition, and positive company earnings." He does admit solar cell/module prices have been falling, but suggests this is partly due to lower costs, along with a weak yen/euro and lower polysilicon prices.
Mon, Apr. 13, 12:17 PM
- Chinese solar stocks are among today's standouts after Shanghai rose 2.2% and Hong Kong rose 2.7% overnight, continuing recent rallies. U.S. solar firms are largely missing out on the fun.
- ReneSola (SOL +13%) is today's biggest gainer. Yingli (YGE +6.2%), JA Solar (JASO +3.2%), Trina (TSL +3.4%), Daqo (DQ +2.7%), and China Sunergy (CSUN +5.6%) are also faring well, as is China-exposed Canadian Solar (CSIQ +2.4%).
- An upbeat RBC note could be helping the group: The firm notes there haven't been any Q1 warnings yet - Trina and Yingli warned a year ago - and that Beijing's 17.8GW 2015 installation target is generally seen as reasonable. It adds European and Japanese solar demand remains healthy, and thinks recent gross margin pressures will abate as ASPs stabilize and cost reductions continue.
- RBC sees Trina outperforming its peers "given its capacity expansion plan, strong balance sheet, and downstream business ramp." Earlier today, the company announced a deal to supply 116MW of modules for a 231MW Japanese project.
- Daqo is now up 11% since posting mixed Q4 results and offering an upbeat 2015 outlook on Friday morning.
- Update: Bernstein is also out with a bullish note: The firm expects the solar module market to continue consolidating, and for larger firms to take more share from smaller rivals.
Wed, Apr. 1, 2:36 PM
- Though the Nasdaq is down 0.8% and the S&P 0.6%, solar stocks remain in rally mode. The Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN +1%) is now up 32% YTD, following a rough 2014.
- SunEdison (SUNE +3.8%) is among today's standouts; its TerraForm Power YieldCo announced this morning it's buying 521MW of wind projects from Atlantic Power for $350M. Trina is also faring well after announcing the sale of a 50MW U.K. solar plant.
- Other standouts include Chinese plays ReneSola (SOL +2.7%), Yingli (YGE +2.2%), JinkoSolar (JKS +5.2%), JA Solar (JASO +2.5%), and China Sunergy (CSUN +7.6%).
Tue, Mar. 24, 2:24 PM
- Buoyed this year by decent Q4 numbers, solid 2015 guidance, and YieldCo news, solar stocks are adding to their gains today even as the Nasdaq barely budges. The Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN +0.7%) is up 35% YTD and nearing a 52-week high of $47.00.
- Chinese firms are adding to last week's gains - JinkoSolar (JKS +3.7%), ReneSola (SOL +3.3%), Daqo (DQ +4.8%), Trina (TSL +1.9%), JA Solar (JASO +2.7%), and China Sunergy (CSUN +12.5%) stand out. Beijing recently hiked its 2015 solar installation target by 2.8GW to 17.8GW (up from 2014's 14GW), while setting no specific targets for utility vs. distributed solar installations. The lack of utility/distributed targets is expected to make the goal easier to hit.
- U.S. names aren't getting left out: First Solar (FSLR +3.5%) and SolarCity (SCTY +2.1%) are rallying, as are microcaps RGS Energy (RGSE +6.5%) and Solar3D (SLTD +12.7%). Solar3D, a California installer, has risen 58% over the last 4 trading days.
Tue, Mar. 24, 12:45 PM
Tue, Mar. 17, 11:02 AM
- Chinese solars, many of which remain sharply below their 52-week highs, are among the standouts on a morning in which the Nasdaq is off 0.2%.
- JinkoSolar (JKS +2.8%), which was down premarket following news of a fire at one of its plants, is among the gainers. As are JA Solar (JASO +3.3%), Daqo (DQ +5.3%), Yingli (YGE +7.1%), ReneSola (SOL +6.9%), Trina (TSL +5.6%), and China Sunergy (CSUN +2.1%). Canadian Solar (CSIQ +3.1%), which has extensive Chinese manufacturing ops, is also rallying.
- The gains come as WTI crude oil continues trading near $43/barrel. The Q4 results and full-year guidance provided by solar firms in February and March suggest oil (responsible for only a small % of global electricity output) isn't having a big near-term impact on solar investments.
Thu, Mar. 5, 11:13 AM
- Solar stocks are up sharply in early trading (TAN +3.9%) after Canadian Solar offered strong Q1/2015 guidance to go with more subdued Q4 results, and stated it's "planning to form a YieldCo vehicle." Vivint Solar's Q4 solar installation beat also might be helping.
- Aside from Canadian and Vivint, gainers include SunEdison (SUNE +2.1%), ReneSola (SOL +7%), Yingli (YGE +3.2%), Trina (TSL +4.7%), JinkoSolar (JKS +4.6%), Enphase (ENPH +6%), and China Sunergy (CSUN +15.7%).
- SunEdison has announced it's entering the solar/wind battery storage market by acquiring "the energy storage project origination team, project pipeline, and ... four operating storage projects" from private Solar Grid Storage. In addition to offering battery storage, SunEdison will integrate its Renewable Operation Center with Solar Grid's solar/battery control services.
- ReneSola and Trina moved higher yesterday following their Q4 reports (I, II). Many solar names rallied 9 days ago in response to First Solar and SunPower's YieldCo JV plans.
Tue, Feb. 24, 10:18 AM
- Beaten down over the last several months as oil and natural gas prices tumbled, solar stocks are rallying today (TAN +3.9%) after First Solar and SunPower announced they're in talks to form a solar project YieldCo, with plans to eventually do an IPO for it.
- The announcement comes less than a year after SunEdison (SUNE +1.5%) took its TerraForm Power (TERP +1.8%) solar project YieldCo public. Canadian Solar (CSIQ +8.1%), which has said it's looking to do a YieldCo at some point, is among today's biggest gainers (not counting First Solar/SunPower).
- Other standouts: SCTY +3.6%. JKS +6.2%. SOL +5.2%. TSL +4%. JASO +3.1%. YGE +4.3%. CSUN +4.5%. ENPH +2.4%.
Mon, Feb. 9, 1:46 PM
- While U.S. solar names are generally posting moderate gains or trading near breakeven, many of their Chinese peers are up strongly. Yingli (YGE +4.5%), JinkoSolar (JKS +3.6%), ReneSola (SOL +3.8%), Trina (TSL +3%), and China Sunergy (CSUN +2.8%) are notable gainers. As is Canadian Solar (CSIQ +4.8%), which leans heavily on its Chinese ops.
- Solar stocks (Chinese or otherwise) gained last week (I, II) amid a sharp rally in oil prices. WTI crude is currently at $53.18/barrel, and Brent crude at $58.48/barrel.
Tue, Feb. 3, 10:59 AM
- Solar stocks are adding to yesterday's gains in a big way (TAN +3.6%) as oil prices (and oil/gas stocks) continue their recent rally: WTI crude is up $1.51 today to $51.08/barrel. The Nasdaq is close to breakeven.
- Also possibly helping solar firms: Canadian Solar's (CSIQ +21.2%) $265M deal to buy North American solar project developer Recurrent Energy from Sharp. The deal, which CSIQ estimates spells a $2.3B+ revenue opportunity, acts as a fresh vote of confidence for the downstream U.S. solar market in the wake of oil and natural gas' big declines.
- Notable gainers (besides CSIQ): FSLR +4%. SPWR +5.1%. JKS +8%. JASO +6.5%. SOL +7.1%. VSLR +6.3%. ASTI +7.7%. CSUN +7.7%. YGE +4.7%. HSOL +8.8%. DQ +3.4%. ENPH +5.8%. TSL +5.5%.
Tue, Jan. 6, 2:47 PM
- The broad Monday selloff in solar names that accompanied WTI crude's plunge towards $50/barrel has been followed by major Tuesday losses (TAN -2%) as WTI falls by another $2.34 to $47.70/barrel.
- Brent crude is down by $2.44 to $50.67/barrel, and Henry Hub natural gas is up by $0.03 to $2.91/mmBtu (still down sharply over the last few months). The Nasdaq is down 1%.
- 3%+ decliners: SUNE -5.9%. SPWR -4.3%. JKS -5.8%. DQ -9.4%. VSLR -4.6%. YGE -4.4%. HSOL -4.5%. ENPH -7.6%. CSUN -8.8%. TSL -3.4%. ASTI -10.2%. CSIQ -3.9%.
- SA author Short/Long Trader sees a buying opportunity. Though admitting a "historic connection" exists between oil prices and renewable investment, the author sees little impact on rising solar demand from low oil prices going forward.
- Trina, Canadian Solar, and JA Solar (JASO -1.4%) are Short/Long's favorite picks, given their low valuations - all three have P/Es below 10 - and generally healthy fundamentals.
Mon, Jan. 5, 1:18 PM
- WTI crude is down by $2.36 to $50.33/barrel, and briefly fell below $50/barrel for the first time since '09. Brent crude is down $3.18 to $53.24/barrel. Solar stocks, no stranger to getting hit hard by crude's decline, are seeing more pain (TAN -2.1%).
- U.S. solar firms First Solar (FSLR -5.5%), SolarCity (SCTY -5.9%), SunPower (SPWR -4.6%), SunEdison (SUNE -6%), and TerraForm (TERP -4.4%) are especially hard-hit. But other names are also underperforming: CSIQ -3.6%. DQ -5.1%. CSUN -4.2%. JKS -2.8%. SOL -3.5%. The S&P is down 1.8%.
- A reminder: Oil accounts for only ~1% of U.S. electricity production, and transmission/distribution costs often have a bigger impact on electricity prices than energy input costs.
- Industry news: 1) Canadian Solar has completed selling two 10MW Ontario plants to renewable energy investment firm RET. 2) Hanwha (HSOL +0.9%) has struck a deal to supply 80MW of modules for a Chilean solar plant. 3) China Sunergy has won a 30MW solar module contract from an Indian solar park builder.
Dec. 1, 2014, 12:15 PM
- With the Nasdaq down 1.3%, solar stocks are adding to the steep Friday losses they saw after OPEC declined to cut production, sparking a huge selloff in oil prices and anything energy/commodity-related. Oil prices have bounced a little today, but WTI crude is still only around $68/barrel.
- Solar bulls have noted oil only accounts for a small percentage of global electricity production, and that solar stocks have already seen plenty of pain this year. The Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN -5.2%) is now down 34% from a March high of $51.07.
- Major decliners: FSLR -6.3%. SPWR -8.4%. SCTY -6%. SUNE -6.4%. SOL -12.8%.JKS -8.1%. CSUN -8.5%. CSIQ -9.3%. DQ -10.3%. VSLR -7.2%. TSL -7.8%. YGE -9.4%. RGSE -7.4%. HSOL -9.5%. TERP -5.8%. JASO -5.2%.
Nov. 28, 2014, 10:55 AM
- Solar stocks are getting hit hard (TAN -5.1%) after OPEC opted against cutting oil production, leading crude prices to plunge below $70/barrel and sparking huge selloffs in energy/commodity stocks. Fuel cell stocks aren't faring much better.
- Solar decliners: FSLR -6.8%. SPWR -6%. SUNE -5.7%. SCTY -2.9%. CSIQ -10.7%. SOL -9.1%. YGE -7.3%. DQ -7.2%. ENPH -6.8%. TSL -6.9%. JASO -7.5%. RGSE -3.9%. JKS -6.9%. CSUN -3.5%. VSLR -3.7%. HSOL -3.8%.
- Fuel cell decliners: BLDP -6.1%. FCEL -4.5%. PLUG -2.3%. HYGS -5.3%.
Nov. 13, 2014, 1:58 PM
- Solar stocks can't catch a break this week. Down on Tuesday following Vivnt Solar's weak results and guidance, and down yesterday in the wake of Canadian Solar's numbers, they're off today after SunPower provided light 2015 guidance.
- Notable decliners: FSLR -4.3%. SUNE -5%. CSIQ -6.9%. JKS -5%. SOL -4.7%. JASO -3.2%. VSLR -3.7%. SOL -4.7%. CSUN -7.9%.
- Chinese polysilicon maker Daqo (DQ -10.1%), which posted mixed Q3 results this morning, is selling off after opening higher.
- Is a lot of bad news priced in? The Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN -1.6%) is now down 33% from a March high of $51.07, and not far from a 52-week low of $32.23.
Nov. 11, 2014, 12:15 PM
- Newly-public Vivint Solar (VSLR -21.6%) has nosedived after missing Q3 EPS estimates and guiding for Q4 revenue of $5.5M-$6.5M, below a $7.3M consensus. Installations are expected to fall to 45MW-47MW from Q3's 49MW.
- Rivals SolarCity (SCTY -3%) and SunPower (SPWR -3.2%) are following Vivint lower, as are several other solar names. RGSE -6.2%. ENPH -5.7%. CSIQ -2.5%. JKS -2.2%. DQ -4.1%. CSUN -2.7%.
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