Seeking Alpha International, Ltd. (CTRP)

  • Wed, May 13, 6:49 PM
    • With a healthy Q1 beat in tow, Ctrip (NASDAQ:CTRP) is now guiding for 45%-50% 2015 revenue growth, at the high end of a prior 40%-50% guidance range. Consensus is at 42.2%.
    • Segment performance: Accommodation (hotel) revenue rose 45% Y/Y in Q1 to $154M, an acceleration from Q4's 31% growth. Transportation ticket revenue (dominated by air tickets) rose 46% to $153M (improved from Q4's 34%). Packaged tour revenue rose 53% to $64M, and corporate travel revenue 31% to $15M.
    • Financials: Gross margin (under pressure in recent quarters) was 70%, down from Q1 2014's 72% but up from Q4's 69%. Spending remains aggressive: R&D spend rose 83% Y/Y to $130M, sales/marketing 68% to $117M, and G&A 36% to $42M. Op. margin (non-GAAP) was -1%, down from 12% a year ago but up from -14% in Q4.
    • Hotel reservation and ticketing volume respectively rose 60% and 104%. Mobile accounted for 70% of online transactions, and cumulative mobile app downloads topped 800M.
    • Ctrip has jumped to $71.75 AH, making new 52-week highs along the way.
    • Q1 results, PR
    | Comment!
  • Wed, May 13, 6:11 PM
    • (NASDAQ:CTRP): Q1 EPS of -$0.15 beats by $0.12.
    • Revenue of $373.41M (+46.8% Y/Y) beats by $10.81M.
    • Shares +6% AH.
    • Press Release
    | 1 Comment
  • Tue, May 12, 5:35 PM
  • Fri, May 8, 10:35 AM
    • 5 months after Chinese online packaged tours provider Tuniu (TOUR +6.3%)  announced a $148M investment from an investor group, the company has announced a $500M investment.
    • (JD +0.6%), which invested $50M in December, is receiving $350M in shares this time around in exchange for $250M in cash and $100M in "resources." Ctrip (CTRP -0.3%), which invested $15M last time, is putting in $20M this time. Various institutional investors are providing the remaining funds.
    • JD will own 27.5% of Tuniu following the round; Tuniu will become JD's exclusive leisure travel channel, and its preferred partner for hotel/air bookings. The purchase price for the shares is $16.00 - well above the $12.06 seen for the last round, but still 7% below yesterday's close.
    • The announcement comes in tandem with JD's mixed Q1 results. China's #2 e-commerce firm saw GMV rise 99% Y/Y to $14.2B - a slowdown from Q4's 119%, but still much faster than Alibaba's 40% (for Chinese marketplaces). Annual active customer accounts rose 90% to 105.2M, and fulfilled orders 76% to 227.2M.
    • Op. cash flow was $388.6M, and capex $201.6M. EPS was depressed by heavy spending: Fulfillment spend +97%; marketing (non-GAAP) +89%; tech/content +147%; G&A (non-GAAP) +82%.
    • JD is guiding for Q2 revenue of RMB43.5B-RMB44.5B ($7.00B-$7.17B), above an RMB43.45B consensus and good for 52%-56% Y/Y growth.
    | Comment!
  • Thu, Mar. 19, 6:37 PM
    • In addition to beating Q4 revenue estimates (while missing on EPS), Ctrip (NASDAQ:CTRP) is guiding for 40%-50% Y/Y Q1 revenue growth, well above a 31.1% consensus.
    • The Chinese online travel leader also announces COO Jane Jie Sun has been promoted to the role of co-president (while remaining COO).
    • Accomodation (hotel) revenue rose 31% Y/Y in Q4 to $136M; volume growth was 53%. Trasportation ticketing revenue (air travel-driven) rose 34% Y/Y to $125M; volume growth of 102% soundly beat guidance of 55%-65%. Packaged tour revenue rose 20% to $38M thanks to 54% volume growth for organized and self-guided tours. Corporate travel revenue rose 38% to $17M.
    • Hurting EPS: Gross margin fell to 69% from Q3's 72% and Q4 2014's 73%. Also: R&D spend rose 137% Y/Y to $127M; sales/marketing 88% to $114M; G&A 52% to $38M.
    • Ctrip has risen to $52.00 AH. Shares went into earnings well below a 52-week high of $69.74. Archrival Qunar recently provided strong Q1 guidance of its own.
    | 1 Comment
  • Thu, Mar. 19, 6:16 PM
    • (NASDAQ:CTRP): Q4 EPS of -$0.11 misses by $0.02.
    • Revenue of $308M (+33% Y/Y) beats by $3.22M.
    • Press Release
    | Comment!
  • Wed, Mar. 18, 5:35 PM
  • Fri, Feb. 6, 4:37 PM
    • With and industry price war and competition from bigger rivals taking a toll, eLong (NASDAQ:LONG) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of -$0.73, far below a -$0.12 consensus. Revenue of RMB246.2M ($39.7M, -6% Y/Y) missed a $43.2M consensus.
    • Also: Expedia (owns 65% of eLong) stated on its Q4 CC it expects eLong's quarterly adjusted EBITDA losses to rise in 2015 from Q4's $27M.
    • Declining revenue per room night (thanks to coupons and lower commissions) led Q4 hotel revenue to fall 6% Y/Y to RMB210.1M in spite of a 27% increase in room nights stayed. Likewise, air ticket revenue fell 13% to RMB28.1M in spite of a 23% increase in air segments. All other revenue rose 15% to RMB27.1M.
    • Though revenue fell, operating expenses rose 25% Y/Y to RMB314.1M, with service enablement spend rising 58% to RMB83.9M, sales/marketing rising 11% to RMB180.4M, and G&A rising 24% to RMB40.3M. eLong ended Q4 with $312M in cash (now equal to over half its market cap), and no debt.
    • eLong fell 9.9% in regular trading. Larger rival Ctrip (NASDAQ:CTRP), which (along with Qunar) has been taking share from eLong, fell 3%.
    | 1 Comment
  • Dec. 2, 2014, 1:06 PM
    • Down AH yesterday after providing light Q4 revenue guidance to go with a Q3 revenue beat and in-line EPS, Qunar (NASDAQ:QUNR) has reversed course. Low expectations seem to be helping - shares were down 33% from a March high of $36.73 going into earnings.
    • Top rival Ctrip (NASDAQ:CTRP), however, is seeing more pain. Shares now -18% since Ctrip's Nov. 25 Q3 report.
    • On its CC (transcript), Qunar noted headcount had soared to 7K+ at the end of Q3 from 2.5K+ at the end of 2013. The company expects to end 2014 with ~8K workers, but doesn't plan to significantly increase headcount in 2015.
    • When asked about competition, CEO C.C. Zhuang asserted Qunar's air travel market lead has widened, and that it has "the fastest growth rates" in the hotel reservation space, where Ctrip continues to lead.
    • Qunar respectively saw Y/Y flight ticket and hotel room night volume growth of 57% and 84.6% in Q3; Ctrip's growth rates were 98% and 69%.
    | Comment!
  • Nov. 26, 2014, 2:08 PM
    • On top of providing light Q4 sales guidance, Ctrip (NASDAQ:CTRP) guided on its CC (transcript) for a Q4 op. margin of -12% to -17%, down sharply from Q3's 11% and Q4 2013's 20%. Gross margin is expected to account for 3% of the Y/Y drop, sales/marketing spend 12%, R&D 18%, and G&A 2%.
    • The outlook has led Barclays, UBS, and Raymond James to downgrade the Chinese online travel leader to neutral ratings. Several other firms have slashed their targets.
    • Piper (Neutral, PT cut to $49): "Management reiterated expectations of 20%-30% PF op margins long-term, but visibility on multi-year margin trajectory is low due to increasing competition. Furthermore, beyond Q4, the company suggested that Q1 PF op margin may be flattish q/q and 2015 PF op margin may be similar to 2014 (low to mid single digits)."
    • Goldman (Neutral, PT cut to $59) likes Ctrip's mobile metrics - mobile was respectively 45% and 35% of hotel and air ticket volume - and notes Ctrip's open platform now claims 1K+ hotel agency partners and 800+ local travel agencies.  But it also expects spending on R&D, rebates (due to price competition), branding, and product coverage expansion to remain heavy.
    • Rivals Qunar (QUNR -2.2%) and eLong (LONG -2.4%) are following Ctrip lower.
    | 1 Comment
  • Nov. 25, 2014, 6:07 PM
    • Though it beat Q3 estimates, Ctrip (NASDAQ:CTRP) is guiding for 30% Y/Y Q4 revenue growth. Consensus is for 32.5% growth.
    • Q3 accommodation revenue +56% Y/Y to $155M; transportation ticketing +32% to $130M; packaged tours +12% to $58M; corporate travel +45% to $17M.
    • However, aggressive spending led op. margin to fall to 11% from 27% a year ago, and EPS to $0.36 from $0.51. R&D spend +83% Y/Y to $100M; sales/marketing +69% to $97M; G&A +40% to $39M.
    • Gross margin was 72%, flat Q/Q but down from 75% a year ago. Mobile app downloads rose 75% Q/Q to 350M.
    • Price pressure: While accommodation and ticketing revenue respectively rose 56% and 32% Y/Y, volume growth was 69% and 98%.
    • Q3 results, PR
    | Comment!
  • Nov. 25, 2014, 5:14 PM
    • (NASDAQ:CTRP): Q3 EPS of $0.36 beats by $0.04.
    • Revenue of $347M (+37.8% Y/Y) beats by $11.3M.
    • Press Release
    | 1 Comment
  • Nov. 24, 2014, 5:35 PM
  • Aug. 21, 2014, 4:58 PM
    • In addition to beating Q2 revenue estimates (while missing on EPS), Qunar (NASDAQ:QUNR) is guiding for 90%-95% Y/Y Q3 revenue growth; the consensus is for revenue to grow 83% to $72M.
    • Mobile revenue rose 511.8% Y/Y in Q2 to $22.9M (35.5% of revenue), fueling the revenue beat. Flight revenue +143.3% to $45M; hotel revenue +79.5% to $11.5M. Flight ticket volume +66.1%, and revenue/ticket +46.4%. Hotel room night volume +105.2%, but revenue per room night -12.5%.
    • Gross margin fell to 73.6% from 78.1% in Q1 and 78.2% a year ago (hurt EPS). Qunar notes higher payment-processing fees pressured its gross profit.
    • Spending was heavy: R&D spend +181.6% Y/Y to $29.3M, sales/marketing +212.4% to $34.7M, product sourcing spend +416.1% to $10.9M, G&A spend +432.9% to $18M. Online marketing spend +120.5% Q/Q to $23.8M.
    • If history is any guide, Ctrip (NASDAQ:CTRP) and/or eLong (NASDAQ:LONG) could follow Qunar higher.
    • Q2 results, PR
    | Comment!
  • Jul. 30, 2014, 6:53 PM
    • Ctrip (NASDAQ:CTRP) expects Q3 revenue to be up 30%-35% Y/Y. That's in-line with a 32.8% consensus.
    • Q2 transportation ticket revenue +39% Y/Y to $117M, hotel reservation revenue +47% to $121M, packaged tours +10% to $33M, corporate travel +37% to $15.
    • Mobile app downloads rose 60% Q/Q to 200M, and mobile transaction value has more than tripled Y/Y.
    • Q2 results, PR
    | Comment!
  • Jul. 30, 2014, 6:03 PM
    • (NASDAQ:CTRP): Q2 EPS of $0.26 beats by $0.02.
    • Revenue of $278M (+37.1% Y/Y) beats by $8.74M.
    • Press Release
    | Comment!
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Company Description International Ltdprovides travel related services including hotel reservation, air-ticketing, packaged-tour services, as well as, to a much lesser extent, Internet-related advertising and other related services.
Sector: Services
Country: China