Wed, Jan. 14, 7:57 AM
- Mining stocks look headed for sizable losses, as copper prices sink to five-and-a-half year lows and the World Bank lowers its forecast for global economic growth.
- Glencore (OTCPK:GLCNF, OTCPK:GLNCY) -11.5% in London trading, Antofagasta (OTC:ANFGF) -7% in London, Anglo American (OTCPK:AAUKF, OTCPK:AAUKY) -9.5% in London, Vedanta (OTCPK:VDNRF) -18% in London, Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO) -4.3% premarket in the U.S., VALE -2.9%, FCX -5.1%, CLF -2.6%.
- BHP Billiton (NYSE:BHP) -7.5% in London and -5.5% U.S. premarket after S&P Capital IQ downgraded shares to Hold from Buy, expecting "weaker commodity prices to increasingly impact on group profits as hedges expire and see currency headwinds from a stronger [U.S. dollar]."
- ETFs: XLB, XME, SLX, COPX, VAW, UYM, CU, IYM, HAP, IRV, MXI, SMN, GNR, GUNR, PICK, MATL, FXZ, PYZ, CRBQ, RTM, CCXE, FMAT, GRES, SBM
Dec. 15, 2014, 1:55 AM
- Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO) and BHP Billiton (NYSE:BHP) are looking to replicate their iron ore strategy in the copper business, squeezing out high-cost producers by injecting more of the red metal into an oversupplied market.
- Separately and in joint ventures, Rio and BHP intend to mine millions of additional tonnes of copper, confident in the coming years that copper will be in short supply.
- Copper producers: OTCPK:GLNCY, FCX, TCK, SCCO
- ETFs: JJC, COPX, CU, CPER, CUPM
Aug. 11, 2014, 6:58 AM
- Indonesian officials say there are no plans to withdraw the seven-month old ban on exports of unprocessed nickel ore and bauxite.
- The country was the world's top exporter of nickel ore and a major bauxite producer until this past January, when the ban was issued in order to force miners to build smelters.
- Last month, the government allowed several firms producing partially processed minerals such as copper concentrate to resume exports, although Indonesia's chief economic minister Chairul Tanjung says the same rationale does not apply to unprocessed exports of nickel ore and bauxite.
- "Nickel is different because if you are smelting in Indonesia the added value is much higher than copper," says Tanjung. "Because of that it's a separate issue."
- ETFs: IDX, JJC, EIDO, COPX, CU, IDXJ, JJN, CPER, NINI, CUPM
Mar. 12, 2014, 6:56 PM
- While steep drops in copper, iron ore and coking coal prices have spooked investors, KGHM chief Derek White says there's no need for mining executives to panic - at least not yet.
- There's no real threat to copper mining operations at a long-term copper price ~$3/lb., White says, but that could change if the price drops below $2.50 for a prolonged period.
- Iron ore prices have performed better than expected in recent years, and this week’s drop brings them closer to many forecasts; analysts believe most iron ore projects are fine at a long-term price above $100/metric ton.
- Coking coal's current $110/metric ton is still not low enough to disrupt most operations, with some exceptions; TD Securities expects Teck Resources (TCK) to defer its Quintette project in British Columbia until the market recovers.
- ETFs: XME, COPX, CU, JUNR, PICK, JJC, DBB, CPER, RJZ, BOM, BOS, JJM, BDD, CUPM, RGRI, UBM, BDG, USMI, HEVY
Mar. 11, 2014, 12:02 PM
- A continued wave of morning selling has brought copper lower by 4.3% on the session to $2.95 per pound, the weakest level since the summer of 2010.
- Copper started the year at $3.40 and its swift decline this week comes amid horrid Chinese export numbers, a plunging price of iron ore, and chatter about defaults and banks calling in loans in China.
- JJC -3.1%
- Other copper ETFs: CPER, CUPM
- Copper producer ETFs: COPX, CU
Sep. 27, 2013, 2:29 PM
- Solar ETFs lead in 2013 returns after years of losses, with water funds also bringing in strong returns for investors
- Metals and miners bring up the rear, both bleeding funds while the overall health of the U.S. economy continues to recover.
Jun. 24, 2013, 5:31 AM
Jun. 4, 2013, 2:28 PMCopper rallies (JJC +1%) on expectations of tighter supplies, as the potential rises for an extended shutdown at Freeport McMoRan's (FCX -2.5%) Grasberg copper and gold mining operation in Indonesia. If FCX were to declare force majeure, the shutdown could remove 100K-150K metric tons of copper supply from the market, a sizable chunk out of estimates of 600K-800K metric tons. | Comment!
Apr. 22, 2013, 1:52 PMGoldman Sachs cuts its forecast for copper prices this year, citing rising global stocks and mounting worries regarding China's growth outlook, but says the selloff in Freeport McMoRan (FCX -0.4%) looks overdone. The firm maintains its Buy rating for FCX but lowers its 2013 and 2014 EPS estimates to $3.35 from $4.53 and to $3 from $3.20, respectively. | Comment!
Apr. 22, 2013, 7:11 AMGoldman gets bullish on copper albeit at a lower price point. After a 13% YTD decline the selloff is "overdone," according to the investment bank which cut its three-, six-, and 12-month estimates to $7,500, $8,000, and $7,000 per metric ton respectively. Although some demand concerns are warranted given the cooling of China's economy, "underlying cyclical growth is likely stronger than the headline figures suggest." (Previously: a bear market in copper) | 1 Comment
Apr. 20, 2013, 8:25 AMDr. Copper's diagnosis for the world economy: It isn't well. Copper ended the week wallowing in bear market territory after top copper consumer China reported slower-than-expected economic growth. At this point, weak demand and robust supplies could continue to put pressure on copper prices, or heavy short selling may dry up and spur a strong rebound. | 4 Comments
Mar. 25, 2013, 10:42 AMHedge funds are the most bearish ever on copper as global inventories expand to a nine-year high; speculators raised net short positions in U.S. copper futures and options by 53% to nearly 26K contracts in last week. “We’re sitting on unprecedented stockpiles," BMO's Jack Albin says. “Demand has been pretty tepid... In the global economy, we’re seeing improving growth, but it’s still at a slow rate." | Comment!
Mar. 18, 2013, 5:48 PMCopper prices hit a new 2013 low today, tumbling 2.6% as "the Cyprus news highlights what many investors would like to forget: that the region’s debt problems are ongoing... and that a solution continues to be elusive." This adds to continued China worries, as "more and more copper is piling up in warehouses." Unlike in the stock market, the slightest bit of bad news is enough to weigh on copper. | Comment!
Dec. 26, 2012, 8:33 AM
Nov. 29, 2012, 9:36 AMCopper supply shortages will extend into the first half of next year, Barclays estimates, as an accelerating Chinese economy more than doubles the pace of growth in global consumption. Demand will outpace supply by 316K metric tons in H1, more than all copper in London Metal Exchange warehouses, before a surplus emerges in H2. | 6 Comments
Nov. 14, 2012, 5:21 PMCopper prices that have risen fivefold in the past decade are the new normal and are unlikely to fade much, Chile's finance minister says. The price of the metal has averaged $3.61/lb. this year vs. $1.79 in the 2000-09 decade, but the finmin of the world's top copper miner doesn’t think prices will see $2.00-$2.50: "That would happen in the very worst part of the cycle, but not as a structural issue.” | Comment!
CU vs. ETF Alternatives
The First Trust ISE Global Copper Index Fund is an exchange-trade fund. The investment objective of the Fund is to seek investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield, before the Fund's fees and expenses, of an equity index called the ISE Global CopperTM Index.
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