Tue, Jan. 13, 3:23 PM
- J.P. Morgan's Joseph Allman is “mildly bullish” on oil and gas E&P companies in 2015, as short-term nervousness about the oil market’s oversupply is outweighed by the benefits of low oil prices, declining service costs and a more balanced oil market.
- Allman’s favorite picks among big-cap names are EOG, APC and NBL, among mid-caps are XEC and PXD, plus PDCE in the small-cap space; his least favorite stocks are APA, AREX, GDP and JONE.
- Among majors, JPM analysts Phil Gresh and John Royall initiate SunCor (NYSE:SU) at Overweight, citing "top tier sustainable dividend coverage and leverage, with some underlying growth potential"; the pair also downgrade Cenovus (NYSE:CVE) to Neutral, tags ConocoPhillips with an Underweight rating, and are neutral on Exxon (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron (NYSE:CVX).
- Earlier: Valero Energy upgraded, Marathon Petroleum downgraded at J.P. Morgan
- ETFs: XLE, ERX, VDE, OIH, XOP, ERY, DIG, DUG, IYE, IEO, PXE, FENY, PXJ, RYE, FXN, DDG
Tue, Jan. 13, 12:28 PM
- Canadian Natural Resources' (CNQ +1.1%) pledge to keep spending on expanding output at its biggest oil sands mine regardless of the price of crude shows that Canadian oil sands operators are intent on maintaining their production thanks to huge upfront costs, long-term breakeven points and lengthy production lives, continuing to add to the global oil glut, WSJ reports.
- CNQ said yesterday that it still expects overall output to grow beyond 2014 levels, and that it will continue expanding production because it expects higher volume will cut operating expenses at its Horizon mine - currently C$37.13/bbl - by at least another C$10/bbl.
- Existing oil sands surface mines can make money at ~$30/bbl, and the most efficient underground oil sands projects run by Cenovus Energy (CVE -1%) can stay profitable at $35/bbl, according to the report.
- Suncor (SU +1.9%) CEO Steve Williams said in November that his company’s strong balance sheet would allow it to ride out the turbulence and stick with a bullish growth strategy.
Fri, Jan. 2, 2:30 PM
- As many as 16 oil sands’ projects worth nearly $60B that have not yet received corporate sanctioning may be deferred if current oil prices persist, according to upstream research analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
- Key projects the firm expects to come on line by 2017 include the 165K bbl/day Fort Hill venture owned by Suncor (NYSE:SU), Total (NYSE:TOT) and Teck Resources (NYSE:TCK); Canadian Oil Sands' (OTCQX:COSWF) 100K bbl/day Mildred Lake replacement project; Imperial Oil’s (NYSEMKT:IMO) 110K bbl/day Kearl Phase 2; ConocoPhillips' (NYSE:COP) 109K bbl/day Surmont Phase 2; and Shell’s (RDS.A, RDS.B) 100K bbl/day Jackpine expansion.
- Projects expected to face delays include Cenovus Energy’s (NYSE:CVE) Christina Lake Phase H and its Narrows Lake Phase A; expansion work at Husky Energy's (OTCQB:HUSKF) Sunrise SAGD plant; and PetroChina’s (NYSE:PTR) MacKay River project.
- Most analysts expect a 10%-15% drop in capex for Canadian energy producers in 2015, with bigger cuts perhaps coming as the year unfolds to rival 2009's 20% capex decline.
Dec. 15, 2014, 5:49 PM
- Canadian heavy crude is trading below US$40/bbl for the first time in five years, just as a surge of 14 new oil sands projects with a combined capacity of more than 266K bbl/day are scheduled to start next year.
- Oil sands projects scheduled to start next year include ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) and Total’s (NYSE:TOT) joint 118K bbl/day Surmont project and the 40K bbl/day expansion of Cenovus Energy’s (NYSE:CVE) Foster Creek project.
- Analysts say while oil sands producers may curtail future development, most existing operations will not be shut and those under construction will go ahead because of the investments involved and potential harm to future output; profitability for all but the lowest-cost producers will be squeezed, as Canadian crude produced from oil sands is some of the world’s most expensive to produce.
Dec. 11, 2014, 7:59 AM
- Cenovus Energy (NYSE:CVE) says it is planning 2015 capital spending of $2.5B-$2.7B, a ~15% Y/Y reduction from the $3B-$3.1B it expects to spend this year.
- CVE says it will manage through the volatile oil price environment through sustainable cost savings initiatives targeting $400M-$500M in annual operating and capital cost savings by 2018.
- CVE expects 2015 production growth of ~9% for oil sands production and ~4% for total oil production of 197K-214K bbl/day.
- While CVE sees its cash flow falling 29% to $2.6B-$2.9B in 2015, based on WTI crude prices of $74-$81, the company anticipates maintaining its dividend at current levels; says it would be able to fully fund its committed capital with internal cash flow with WTI at ~$65/bbl through 2015.
Dec. 9, 2014, 5:25 PM
- Canada will not impose new carbon emission rules on its oil and gas sector in a time of falling oil prices, Prime Minister Harper tells the House of Commons as international talks begin in Peru to reach a new global agreement on curbing greenhouse gas emissions.
- Canada’s critical energy sector has been slammed by the recent collapse of world oil prices, and a number of Canadian producers recently have announced plans to cut spending and dividends.
- Harper’s government, which counts the resource-rich western provinces as its core political base, had said it was prepared to work with the U.S. on environmental rules covering the continental oil and gas sector.
- Among Canada's top energy firms: SU, ENB, EEP, EEQ, TRP, IMO, CNQ, TCK, CVE, BTE, OTCQX:COSWF, OTCQB:HUSKF
Nov. 14, 2014, 10:39 PM
- Cenovus Energy (NYSE:CVE) says it received approval from Alberta regulators for its Telephone Lake project, CVE's first wholly-owned oil sands project which could eventually produce more than 300K bbl/day.
- CVE says Telephone Lake will be developed in stages, with a 90K bbl/day initial phase, followed by expansions.
- A final decision on whether to proceed with construction will not be made until next year.
Oct. 23, 2014, 10:54 AM
- Cenovus Energy (CVE +6.1%) opens strong after Q3 earnings slip 4% but beat expectations, and cash flow climbed 6% on higher oil sands production and stronger natural gas prices.
- CVE says cash flow reached C$985M (US$876M), or C$1.30/share, but the improvement was partly offset by weaker crude prices and lower refined product output.
- Refining operating cash flow fell 53% due to an unplanned coker outage in July at its Borger refinery in Texas and a planned turnaround at the Wood River refinery in Illinois; CVE owns a 50% stake in the two U.S. refineries operated by Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX).
- CVE, which co-owns the Foster Creek and Christina Lake oil sands projects with ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP), says its total oil production rose 13% to ~199K bbl/day, driven by a 23% jump in oil sands production to ~125K bbl/day.
Oct. 23, 2014, 6:26 AM
Oct. 22, 2014, 5:30 PM
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Oct. 1, 2014, 2:39 PM
- Suncor Energy (SU +0.1%) is upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citi, which sees 7%/year production growth during 2015-20 generating an average free cash flow yield of ~8% vs. a yield forecast of ~5.6% for global oil majors.
- The firm notes that SU has enhanced returns on its existing $25B of capital-in-place oil sands assets over the past 18-24 months, and is streamlining its operations to lower sustaining capital spending and operating expenses while producing more from its existing project.
- SU has cut 2014 capex by ~$1B, but the firm estimates further cuts to annual spending of $500M-$1B through 2020 which should generate another 20%-25% in free cash flow, allowing the company to achieve its return on capital employed goal of 15%.
- Citi now has Buy ratings on all four major integrated oil producers in Canada, which also includes Cenovus Energy (NYSE:CVE), Husky Energy (OTCQB:HUSKF) and Imperial Oil (NYSEMKT:IMO).
Sep. 17, 2014, 5:48 PM
- Cenovus Energy (NYSE:CVE) says it achieved first oil production at its recently-completed Foster Creek phase F expansion earlier this month.
- CVE expects Phase F to add 30K bbl/day of capacity, with production ramping up over the next 12 to 18 months; phases G and H are under construction and are expected to add another 30K bbl/day each with first production anticipated in late 2015 and 2016, respectively, bringing total expected gross production capacity at Foster Creek to 210K bbl/day.
- Foster Creek is 50%-owned by ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP).
Jul. 30, 2014, 9:44 AM
- Cenovus Energy (CVE +2.6%) opens higher after its Q2 earnings more than tripled, helped by increased production at its Christina Lake oil sands project in Alberta.
- CVE's Q2 oil sands production averaged nearly 125K bbl/day, with Christina Lake up 77% to 68K bbl/day following completion of another phase of development.
- Total oil production rose 18% to 201,688 bbl/day; natural gas production fell 5% in the quarter.
- Cash flow of C$1.19B ($1.57/share) was 37% higher than a year earlier, fueled by higher oil sands production and improved commodity prices.
Jul. 30, 2014, 6:14 AM
Jul. 29, 2014, 5:30 PM
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Jul. 25, 2014, 3:42 PM
- Exxon Mobil (XOM -1.2%) is downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Barclays, primarily due to its relative valuation in the belief that potential upside is limited compared to peers.
- XOM will continue to face relative headwinds concerning the lack of meaningful near-term production growth and the likelihood of a relatively steady high oil price environment, Barclays believes.
- The firm recommends switching out of XOM to ConocoPhillips (COP -0.3%), Imperial Oil (IMO -1.3%) or Suncor (SU -0.3%).
- Barclays also cuts Cenovus Energy (CVE -1.7%) to Equal Weight from Overweight, seeing operating issues at Foster Creek and Pelican Lake remaining a drag on shares over the next several quarters (Briefing.com).
CVE vs. ETF Alternatives
Cenovus Energy Inc is an integrated oil company. The Company is in the business of developing, producing and marketing crude oil, NGLs and natural gas in Canada with refining operations in the United States.
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