Jun. 27, 2014, 3:59 PM
- Refiners are lower again today after a slight bounce yesterday, as investors resume wariness over the U.S. government's move to allow exports of ultra-light crude oil.
- But Credit Suisse analysts say there’s more to the drop in refiners: U.S. refining is still linked to the world, there is overcapacity in global refining and the risk premium in the oil price is rising, and this week the market was reminded that the lightest barrels (condensate) in U.S. production can be exported (via distillation towers) at relatively low cost, creating more runway for black oil.
- The firm downgrades Holly Frontier (HFC -2.5%), and says Tesoro (TSO -0.7%) needs to beat convincingly in 2Q earnings... to drive further relative upside”; however, Marathon Petroleum (MPC -1.7%) "is becoming significantly more interesting after underperforming,” while it sees most potential in niche refiners such as Delek US (DK -3.4%) and Western Refining (WNR -0.9%).
- Also: VLO -1.1%, ALJ -2.5%, PSX -0.7%, PBF -3.5%, CVI +0.4%, CLMT +1.5%.
Jun. 26, 2014, 3:33 PM
- Most refiners recover part of yesterday's big drop, which some say was an overreaction to the U.S. government move to allow two oil companies to export ultra-light crude oil for the first time: TSO +2.8%, VLO +2%, PSX +1%, CVI +0.7%, CLMT +0.7%, WNR +0.6%, MPC +0.2%, ALJ -1%, PBF -0.6%, HFC -0.3%.
- The death of U.S. refiners is "greatly exaggerated," Cowen analysts say: "The spirit of the law - that hydrocarbon liquids produced in the U.S. must be processed in the U.S. - remains in place, and permits for condensate exports do not constitute precedent for crude oil... We continue to see potential for a meaningful feedstock advantage for U.S. refiners emerging later in 2014."
- Ned Davis Research, however, thinks the news is "potentially game changing for refiners," since it signals a change in the government’s position on oil exports more broadly and noting that it is the export ban, plus inadequate pipeline infrastructure, that has fed recent refiner outperformance.
Jun. 25, 2014, 10:18 AM
- Refiners take a beating in early trading, as a lift of the ban on U.S. oil exports is expected to narrow the WTI-Brent spread, which could cause refiners' profits drop if they are forced to pay higher prices to compete with international buyers for U.S. crude.
- “We don’t think the current system needs to be changed,” Valero Energy tells Bloomberg.
- Yesterday's rulings gave Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD +2.6%) and Enterprise Products Partners (EPD +1.4%) permission to ship ultralight oil to foreign buyers - a narrow ruling, but one that is likely to spark similar requests from other companies, and increase lobbying for a full lifting of the 40-year-old ban on exporting crude oil.
- Refining stocks are broadly lower: VLO -7.4%, PBF -5.8%, MPC -5.7%, WNR -5.5%, DK -5.4%, HFC -4.6%, ALDW -4.6%, TSO -3.8%, NTI -3.5%, PSX -2.9%, ALJ -2.7%, CVI -2.3%.
May. 15, 2014, 4:59 PM
- Oil refiners will be required to further curb air pollution from storage tanks, flares and heavy-oil processing equipment under proposed rules released today by the EPA.
- The proposed rules also would require refiners for the first time to measure concentrations of cancer-causing benzene at their fence lines and provide the data to the public.
- Top refiners include VLO, TSO, PSX, ALJ, MPC, WNR, HFC, CVI, DK and CLMT.
May. 1, 2014, 9:01 AM
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Apr. 28, 2014, 12:45 PM
- Prices of U.S. crude grades such as West Texas Intermediate are starting to disconnect from Brent benchmark prices again, rebounding to ~$9/bbl two weeks after hitting a low for the year of less than $3.70.
- Stocks at the Cushing, Okla., hub have dropped by 16M barrels since late January but have jumped by 43M on the Gulf coast; overall, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories now stand at their highest level on record, according to Barclays.
- With the oil stuck there with nowhere to go, Gulf coast refiners can name their price - great for the likes of Valero Energy (VLO +1.9%), because they can then refine that oil into products such as gasoline that are allowable for export.
- Also today: PSX +0.9%, MPC +1.8%, HFC +0.7%, TSO +1.3%, CVI +0.9%, WNR +0.2%, PBF +1.1%, CLMT +2.3%, ALJ -1.2%.
- ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, SCO, DTO, DBO, BNO, CRUD, USL, UWTI, DNO, DWTI, SZO, OLO, OLEM, TWTI
Apr. 16, 2014, 11:34 AM
- Icahn Enterprises (IEP +7.3%) gets its tail in the air after Barron's Andrew Bary - who issued a well-timed Sell call on the stock in December (and another one in March) - says the big decline in the shares has them looking undervalued once again.
- What Icahn calls the "indicative net asset value" is likely still just below $80 per unit, writes Bary, putting them at a little more than a 10% premium - not an unreasonable price given Icahn's investing acumen.
- In the end, IEP - with Icahn controlling nearly 90% of outstanding units - is a play on CVR Energy (CVI +0.9%), Federal-Mogul (FDML +0.2%). and Icahn's hedge fund which famously holds stakes in Apple, Herbalife, eBay, Transocean, and Chesapeake Energy, offset by some sizable shorts.
Mar. 5, 2014, 6:21 PM
- Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz said at the CERAWeek conference this week that the oil industry has failed to make a convincing case for why the U.S. government should allow the export of domestic oil when the U.S. still imports 5M bbl/day.
- The statement should please America's refiners, who have enjoyed increased profits from buying U.S. oil on the cheap to produce products such as gasoline.
- At the same time, Moniz went further than before in suggesting the Obama administration could redo the economic analysis that underpins its decisions on exporting American natural gas.
- Moniz also dismissed speculation that the Obama administration has in mind a hard cap on possible natural gas exports.
- Refiners: PSX, MPC, HFC, VLO, TSO, WNR, NTI, DK, CLMT, ALJ, CVI.
Feb. 27, 2014, 3:46 PM
- Oil refiners are getting hit today as Brent crude falls to its lowest price in more than a week on rising tensions in Ukraine, shrinking the premium to West Texas crude to the narrowest level since October.
- Given Ukraine’s location, the country's situation obviously will impact Brent more than WTI; meanwhile, WTI’s losses are limited after U.S. government data yesterday showed crude supplies at Cushing, Okla., declining to a four-month low.
- Phillips 66 (PSX -2.8%) has dropped 3.5% YTD, while Delek US (DK -5.3%) has plunged 17%, Valero (VLO -4.3%) has slipped 3.8%, Holly Frontier (HFC -3.1%) has fallen 8.2% and Marathon Petroleum (MPC -4.4%) is off 8.5% in 2014.
- Other decliners today: TSO -1.5%, ALJ -5.4%, WNR -4.2%, CVI -3.4%, CLMT -0.7%.
- ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, SCO, DBO, DTO, BNO, CRUD, USL, DNO, UWTI, SZO, DWTI, OLO, OLEM, TWTI
Feb. 20, 2014, 9:08 AM
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Dec. 31, 2013, 3:56 PM
- The energy sector - especially refiners - leads the stock market higher today even as crude oil trades lower, with Phillips 66 (PSX +3.2%) contributing to the strength after Berkshire Hathaway agreed to acquire its flow improver business (I, II).
- Berkshire's acquisition would seem to point to the next logical step for Warren Buffett’s empire building in the energy sector: investing in pipelines and, at the other end, the refineries that stand to benefit most from them.
- Today's refining stalwarts: VLO +3.7%, MPC +3.8%, HFC +2%, TSO +3.4%, WNR +3.1%, CVI +2.9%, ALJ +2.8%, NTI +2.8%.
CVI vs. ETF Alternatives
CVR Energy, Inc. is a diversified holding company engaged in the petroleum refining and nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing industries through its holdings in CVR Refining, LP and CVR Partners, LP.
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