Nov. 18, 2014, 3:31 PM
- Goldman Sachs analyst Neil Mehta is optimistic about oil refiner stocks, resuming the group at Attractive, adding Tesoro (NYSE:TSO) to the firm's conviction list and awarding Buy ratings to Marathon Petroleum (NYSE:MPC), Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX) and Delek US (NYSE:DK).
- Metha believes refiners are one of the few energy sectors that can grow cash flow in a declining crude price environment, given industry economics are driven more by crude spreads than the directional oil price; he sees an average upside of 25% for refiners during the next six months.
- Despite the overall sector optimism, Mehta thinks investors should sell CVR Energy (NYSE:CVI) and Alon USA Energy (NYSE:ALJ), which have more exposure to the Permian Basin, where the difference in price vs. the WTI benchmark should get smaller.
Oct. 30, 2014, 9:09 AM
Oct. 30, 2014, 8:36 AM
Oct. 29, 2014, 5:30 PM
- ABC, ABMD, ACIW, ACOR, ALLE, ALU, AMAG, AMT, ANR, APD, APO, ATK, AUDC, AVP, BCO, BG, BGCP, BLL, BWA, CAH, CARB, CBM, CEVA, CI, CME, CNSL, COP, COR, CRCM, CRNT, CRR, CVI, CVRR, DBD, DFT, DHX, DST, EPD, EXLS, FCH, FCN, FIG, FIS, GBX, GEL, GG, GLOP, GNC, GOV, GTI, GTLS, HAR, HEES, HGG, HST, I, IDA, IDCC, INCY, INGR, IQNT, IRDM, IRM, ITC, IVZ, JCI, K, KCG, KEM, KMT, LAD, LECO, LKQ, LLL, LPLA, LRN, MA, MD, MDC, MDXG, MGM, MMYT, MO, MOD, MOS, MPC, MPLX, MPW, MSCI, MZOR, NEO, NGD, NI, NILE, NOV, NVO, NYT, O, OAK, OCN, ODFL, OXF, PBI, PCRX, PEG, Q, RDEN, RDN, RDS.A, RFP, RGLD, RTIX, SCG, SHOO, SMP, SNAK, SPAR, SSE, STRA, STRZA, SUI, TASR, TEVA, THRM, TRI, TWC, UAN, UPL, USAC, VICL, VNTV, WLT, WST, WWE, XEL
Oct. 15, 2014, 2:17 PM
- The ten companies in the Russell 1000 in which hedge funds hold the biggest stakes are down an average of 16% since that index hit an all-time high on September 18, according to Bloomberg. This stands against a slide in the index of just 7%.
- “The reactive selling is institutional,” says a portfolio manager. “Now redemptions are coming in, and that’s putting more pressure on the market. All these things are in the mix for perhaps exacerbating the move.”
- The list: Burger King Worldwide (BKW -4.5%), CVR Energy (CVI -2.4%), Spectrum Brands Holdings (SPB -3.3%), Ally Financial (ALLY -2.6%), Zynga (ZNGA -1.3%), NorthStar Realty (NRF -1.9%), Seventy Seven Energy (SSE -6.6%), Platform Specialty Products (PAH -1.4%), and SunEdison (SUNE -0.6%).
Oct. 14, 2014, 6:57 PM
- Refiners implore Pres. Obama to remain firm on plans to scale back renewable fuel quotas for 2014, warning that if the administration gives in to Corn Belt demands for higher mandates, it could cause gasoline prices to spike.
- The EPA last year proposed cutting the amount of renewable fuel required for 2014 to 15.2B gallons, ~3B gallons below the amount prescribed in federal statutes, including up to 13B gallons from traditional corn-based ethanol and 2.2B gallons of advanced biofuels.
- But administration officials have hinted they could boost the final targets, justified in part because gasoline consumption has also risen since the proposal was first unveiled last year.
- Among signers of a letter to Obama were Valero (NYSE:VLO) CEO Joseph Gorder and Tesoro (NYSE:TSO) CEO Gregory Goff.
Sep. 10, 2014, 3:28 PM
- Energy stocks, especially refiners, are taking a beating following the latest EIA inventory report that said gasoline stockpiles rose by 2.4M barrels last week, helping send U.S. crude oil futures to 16-month lows (-1.2% to $91.61/bbl) and Brent crude to 17-month lows (-1.1% to $98.02).
- The report is bearish given the large increases in refined product inventories; "even though the crude drawdown was close to expectations, it seemed to disappoint," Again Capital's John Kilduff says.
- The EIA report followed the agency’s updated demand growth report issued yesterday and this morning’s release of OPEC’s report on the oil market; both see lower demand growth this year and next.
- Oil majors are mostly lower: XOM -0.6%, CVX -1.4%, COP -0.3%, but BP (+2.9%) and RDS.A (+1%) are higher.
- Refiners are hit hard: VLO -3.6%, PSX -1.5%, MPC -1.9%, HFC -2.5%, TSO -2.9%, WNR -4.1%, CVI -1.6%, ALJ -1.8%, PBF -3.5%, DK -1.8%, CLMT -1.8%.
- ETFs: USO, XLE, OIL, UCO, ERX, VDE, OIH, SCO, ERY, XOP, DIG, BNO, UGA, DTO, DBO, DUG, IYE, IEO, CRUD, PXE, USL, PXI, PXJ, DBE, FENY, UWTI, DWTI, DNO, RJN, RYE, FXN, SZO, OLO, JJE, DDG, ONG, RGRE, OLEM, TWTI, UBN
Aug. 5, 2014, 5:28 PM
- West Texas crude prices tumbled to six-month lows today while Brent fell to the lowest level this year amid speculation that refineries will slow operations, reducing crude demand.
- WTI for Sept. delivery fell $0.91 (0.9%) to close at $97.38/bbl on the New York Merc, the lowest settlement since Feb. 5, while Brent for Sept. settlement fell $0.80 (0.8%) to $104.61/bbl on the ICE Futures, the lowest close since Nov. 7.
- Prices have been falling since the July 31 announcement that CVR Refining's (CVI, CVRR) 115K bbl/day Coffeyville refinery that gets oil from Cushing, Okla., may be offline for most of August after a fire.
- “The loss of $10 in value in six weeks can’t be explained by weak fundamentals alone,” says a broker, adding "Until there’s a major event, prices will be under downward pressure.”
- ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, SCO, BNO, DTO, DBO, CRUD, USL, UWTI, DWTI, DNO, SZO, OLO, OLEM, TWTI
Jul. 31, 2014, 3:16 PM
Jul. 31, 2014, 8:35 AM
Jul. 30, 2014, 5:30 PM
- AAWW, ABMD, ACIW, ACOR, ADP, AGI, ALKS, ALU, AMRC, APA, ASEI, ATK, AVP, AYR, AZN, BDX, BG, BGCP, BKCC, BLL, BUD, BWA, BZH, CCJ, CDW, CEVA, CHTR, CI, CL, CME, CNSL, COMM, COP, COT, CRCM, CRR, CTCM, CVI, CVRR, DDD, DISCA, DLPH, DTV, ENDP, EPD, EXC, FCH, FCN, FIG, FLY, FRM, GEL, GG, GIL, GLOP, GMT, GNRC, GTLS, H, HGG, HL, HP, HST, IDA, IMN, INCY, IRDM, IRM, ITT, IVZ, K, KMT, LKQ, LLL, LM, MA, MCK, MD, MDP, MNTA, MOD, MOS, MPC, MPLX, MSCI, MTOR, MWIV, NGD, NI, NJR, NWL, OAK, OCN, ODFL, OXY, PCG, PCRX, PES, PNR, PNW, PPL, PRFT, PWR, Q, RFP, RYL, SBH, SC, SCG, SFY, SHOO, SNAK, SNMX, STC, STRA, STRZA, SUP, SWC, TE, TEVA, TKR, TRP, TWC, UAN, UPL, USAK, VG, VICL, VNTV, VRX, WLT, WWE, XEL, XOM, XRAY
Jul. 17, 2014, 8:51 AM
Jul. 15, 2014, 11:33 AM
- Valero Energy (VLO -0.2%) climbs off sharp early losses after reporting Q2 guidance below Wall Street consensus.
- Wells Fargo analysts expect Q2 throughput volumes will be generally as expected, while capture rates will fall short of prior expectations likely due to weaker crack spreads; it lowers its Q2 and FY 2014 EPS estimates to a respective $1.18 and $5.87 from $1.31 and $6.00.
- Raymond James analysts continue to “tread lightly” with the refiners, skeptical that WTI-Brent spreads can reach heights needed to drive EPS expectations higher for 2015 and beyond.
- Other refiners are mostly higher after early losses: TSO +0.7%, HFC +0.3%, MPC +0.7%, PSX +0.4%, ALJ -0.5%, WNR +0.4%, CVI +0.8%.
Jun. 27, 2014, 4:53 PM
- All U.S. crude oil that is processed by a distillation tower - not just condensate - is exempt from the crude export ban, potentially widening the amount of petroleum U.S. producers can send to markets abroad, Reuters reports, citing U.S. government and industry sources.
- By focusing on how the oil is treated rather than what it is, this week's ruling allowing two companies that produce condensate to export the oil if it is processed by a distillation tower appears to open an option for companies that produce traditional crude to get around the export ban by lightly boiling their own oil, the report says.
- The new interpretation of the ruling will add to the speculation over how much of the U.S. shale oil boom might reach overseas markets.
- ETFs: USO, OIL, XLE, UCO, ERX, VDE, OIH, SCO, ERY, DIG, BNO, DTO, DBO, DUG, IYE, CRUD, USL, PXJ, FENY, UWTI, DWTI, DNO, RYE, SZO, FXN, OLO, DDG, OLEM.
- Domestic oil stocks: OAS, NOG, KOG, CLR, WLL, EOX, SM, SFY, PVA, GST, SN, CRK, BBG.
- Global majors: XOM, CVX, BP, RDS.A, RDS.B.
- Refiners: VLO, HFC, MPC, TSO, WNR, ALJ, PSX, PBF, DK, NTI, ALDW, CVI.
Jun. 27, 2014, 3:59 PM
- Refiners are lower again today after a slight bounce yesterday, as investors resume wariness over the U.S. government's move to allow exports of ultra-light crude oil.
- But Credit Suisse analysts say there’s more to the drop in refiners: U.S. refining is still linked to the world, there is overcapacity in global refining and the risk premium in the oil price is rising, and this week the market was reminded that the lightest barrels (condensate) in U.S. production can be exported (via distillation towers) at relatively low cost, creating more runway for black oil.
- The firm downgrades Holly Frontier (HFC -2.5%), and says Tesoro (TSO -0.7%) needs to beat convincingly in 2Q earnings... to drive further relative upside”; however, Marathon Petroleum (MPC -1.7%) "is becoming significantly more interesting after underperforming,” while it sees most potential in niche refiners such as Delek US (DK -3.4%) and Western Refining (WNR -0.9%).
- Also: VLO -1.1%, ALJ -2.5%, PSX -0.7%, PBF -3.5%, CVI +0.4%, CLMT +1.5%.
Jun. 26, 2014, 3:33 PM
- Most refiners recover part of yesterday's big drop, which some say was an overreaction to the U.S. government move to allow two oil companies to export ultra-light crude oil for the first time: TSO +2.8%, VLO +2%, PSX +1%, CVI +0.7%, CLMT +0.7%, WNR +0.6%, MPC +0.2%, ALJ -1%, PBF -0.6%, HFC -0.3%.
- The death of U.S. refiners is "greatly exaggerated," Cowen analysts say: "The spirit of the law - that hydrocarbon liquids produced in the U.S. must be processed in the U.S. - remains in place, and permits for condensate exports do not constitute precedent for crude oil... We continue to see potential for a meaningful feedstock advantage for U.S. refiners emerging later in 2014."
- Ned Davis Research, however, thinks the news is "potentially game changing for refiners," since it signals a change in the government’s position on oil exports more broadly and noting that it is the export ban, plus inadequate pipeline infrastructure, that has fed recent refiner outperformance.
CVI vs. ETF Alternatives
CVR Energy Inc is a diversified holding company.The Company through its subsidiaries is engaged in the petroleum refining and nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing industries. Itsbusiness segments include petroleum and nitrogen fertilizer.
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