Chevron Corp. (CVX)

All Comments on CVX

  • commenter
    The FItzman
    Jun 01 10:35 AM
    My Website
    In Light of Peak Oil, Financial Diversification Is a Bad Idea [view article]
    great comments guys & gals! i love to see it. as usual, i must participate in the to-n-fro:

    pursely: i thought we declared a truce for 5 years? meanwhile, after reading the WSJ article on page A8 last week, please explain to me while the oil exporter's production is dropping while oil has quadrupled - this is political?

    oldgoldbug: yes, bush wanted to go into iraq no matter if the majority of the 9/11 hijackers were saudi (the saudis already supposedly "like" us). it was either iran or iraq - iraq was easier to manufacture reasons for, not to mention if the US goes into iran and the straits of hormuz are shut, oil doubles or more even from $126/barrel. i think bush and his buddies were even shocked by their inability to keep iraqi oil flowing and the geopolitical risk premium point on oil due to their actions. that said, i suppose their thinking is that it's easier to steal iraqi oil than to adopt a comprehensive energy policy.

    scott: agree oil affects europe too, but they are much farther ahead in terms of france's nuclear and germany & spain's wind. however, when it comes to currrencies, i'd put my bet on brazil, russia, and even the middle eastern currencies if they get off the dollar peg, which they will have to unless they want to enjoy the inflation that goes with that. massive amounts of money is (and will continue to) flow to oil and gas producers from the importing countries. US's biggest trade deficit component is $650 billion/year for oil. can't say that is a scenario for a strong dollar. not to mention, the US can't fight inflation by raising interest rates because of the massive debt load of its non-saving citizens. therefore, US dollar weak, oil high, inflation high. thus, the portfolio i recommended.

    sharpPA: agree. you must have worked the oil fields of western NY and PA with my grandpa, who managed to stay independent in spite of rockefeller's lock on railroad transportation of penny crude oil.

    flylines: my field is (was?) electrical engineering with an eye toward systems architecture for wireless. what is "magical" about the past 8 years is this:
    - US currency devalued over 50% (!)
    - huge US fiscal deficits and an insane tax policy in time of "war"
    - largest growth of the government in 8 year period in history
    - takeover of publicly traded investment house by the Fed (Bear)
    - lowering of interest rates when inflation is rising
    all this by a "conservative&quo... republican. these are facts. there is nothing "conservative&quo... about these policies. they are the most RADICAL policies certainly in my lifetime.
    you wanted examples of 25-30% gainers over the last 5 years, well, they are pretty much the recommended picks, so check them out.
    you want to talk about stability of government?
    you talk about stability like the US is and will be: what is so stable about a government that imports 65% of its oil and prints money like there is no tommorow. ever here of the weimer republic in germany? sure we have military superiority, but look how we use it: unilaterally while dissing our old allies? just like the little schoolboy, security is measured by the number of friends you have. we don't have any left. agree with your food comment, add a pond for fish and a mineral bag to attrack deer. thanks for your review - very thorough! and yes, plz send feedback on my energy policy. i have two late additions to it: 60 mph top speed limit; 4 day work week.

    blah blah: good username selection for you.

    papagiki: i have no problem with ETF's and hold some myself. that said, i absolutely love my positions in Vanguard Energy and Fidelity Select's Nat Gas & Energy Services. there performance over the last 5 year is probably close to 8-10x the S&P500. can't beat that with a stick man.

    phil: demand for oil goes down? only in the case of a depressiona nd we're all hosed anyhow. so, not in my lifetime.

    richjoy: i have invested for close to 30 years. i used to be a fan of diversification. peak oil has changed that for reasons i explained. i am still a big fan of diversification: within the energy and precious metals sectors! ;)

    jjsason: "There are a lot of *people* who are not going to let the OPEC cartel rig oil prices along with the commodity futures exchanges." what, are the people gonna take over all the oil rigs in all oil producing nations? get real.

    yetiv: well said! pursley and i have supposedly called a truce, but feel free to go after him yourself wrt depletion rates, which he appears to be in a state of denial.

    ann: hi, i love it when the ladies participate. with respect to my strategy being "all for me", it's hard for me to watch the government rape the treasury and devalue my currency (and therefore my net worth) by 50% and stand by and watch without taking action. wrt money flowing into oil and pushing the price up, this is a good thing! high priced oil might be the one thing that gets the US off it's butt an adopt a comprehensive energy policy based on transitioning OFF of oil. i think we are on the same page here. have you read my energy policy?
    seekingalpha.com/artic...
    would appreciate your feedback plz. wrt 5%, it would be more on the order of 20-25%.

    paulk: i like the railroads and ag too, that said, to me they are still peak oil plays.

    richjoy: plz be more specific on my "blather".

    philips49: is your first name conoco? :)

    kat: i used to be against nuclear too. problem now is we have ignored oil and energy policy for so long, we simply have no choice but nuclear. i take coal generation off the table because, forgetting the CO2, it is simply destroying our water table, our lakes, streams, river, and fish with mercury poisining. and yes, i know the half-life of mercury. agree we need massive wind and solar, and agreed the government must get involved due to the sheer magnitude of the energy void which is coming. thx for your comments.

    freefall: the picture is atop mt. conejos, 13,172 ft, san juan wilderness colorado. great day hike. not a 14'er, but will give you a good work out. besides, the cutthroat in tobacco lake, which you will pass on the way to the peak, are *huge*.

    peark2k: from the article in the WSJ the other day on the US military's oil consumption, i figured out that the US military uses 1.5 days of total worldwide oil production per year.

    pursely: very patriotic of you to buy the hummer. you're the best friend russia and the middle east has.

    gr8ideas: good luck with the S&P500 and bonds in the coming years. i'll check back with you in 5 years and see if you are keeping up with inflation and the falling US dollar. wrt gold, please check out the 1970's action on gold, and compare to the action on gold the last few years - see any simliarities? now, after the 70's gold dropped along with oil when the saudis turned on the "spigot". i maintain there is no "spigot" any more, and the rise of oil will be as far into the future as you can see.

    hackensack: again, plz read the previously referred to article in the WSJ and tell me why so many oil exporter's production is down while oil prices have gone up 4x? what kind of "politics" is that?

    blah blah: again, no substance and your username was very well chosen.

    Kezorm: oil, oil services, and gold creamed the S&P500 in the 1970's. high oil prices and rising inflation will do the same now. in fact, if the S&P didn't have the energy related companies in it, the outperformance would even be more exceptional.

    lksseven: there is no guessing with respect to worldwide oil production and worldwide oil demand. politically unhinged? please read my bullets up above about what has happened financially during bush's administration and defend them. republican ideology seems to accept non-republican policy and blinded you to the truth of finances just as it did to the truth about iraq. you njever heard me say bush is manipulating the entire global economy - please point to those words in my article. you cannot. if you are going to debate me, at least debate ME, not yourself and your own words or interpretations of what you think i said.

    zack: who is suggesting two energy stocks? did you not see the entire list of recommendations?     Reply
  • commenter
    Zack
    Jun 01 09:21 AM
    My Website
    In Light of Peak Oil, Financial Diversification Is a Bad Idea [view article]
    CAN YOU SAY BUBBLE? What happens when you have 90% of your portfolio in 2 energy stocks?? Reply
  • commenter
    bearfund
    Jun 01 12:45 AM
    In Light of Peak Oil, Financial Diversification Is a Bad Idea [view article]
    richjoy, I agree with you to a point. "It's different this time" are the most expensive words in finance. But I doubt your final advice to stay with the S&P500 and especially bonds, not because it's different this time but because it isn't. Explosive monetary expansion is devastating to growth; anything devastating to growth is devastating to equities. It should surprise no one that the infamous "Death of Equities" cover appeared after a decade of negative real interest rates and out of control price growth. Here we are again, with interest rates negative and prices spiraling upward. But we're not there yet: stocks are not cheap and interest rates are not high.

    Equities did not die, nor will they this time. They not only survived but thrived, thrived on the discipline Volcker imposed on the money supply. True, some companies will be winners and others losers in this madness, depending mainly on how long we allow the Fed to persist in its folly. But if US equities are to recover as they have before, that folly must end. Real interest rates must soar, and with prices rising rapidly, nominal rates must soar even faster. For this reason, I say that your parting words are self-contradictory: if equities are to be good investments again, surely anyone holding bonds must lose his shirt in the process. If these events do not take place, US equities really will die, to be followed in short order by Treasuries as the American economy collapses. You cannot have it both ways, but bonds are toast in either. I challenge you to describe a scenario in which Treasury prices do not decrease substantially over the next decade.     Reply
  • commenter
    lksseven
    Jun 01 12:15 AM
    My Website
    In Light of Peak Oil, Financial Diversification Is a Bad Idea [view article]
    He might be guessing right, he might be guessing wrong ... but about the future he's guessing. And he's definitely politically unhinged. Econ 101 .... Law of Supply and Demand. When demand goes up, supply either gets more plentiful or more expensive. Has this guy heard of a couple of little places called China and India? That's on the Demand side of the equation. And where was he 10 years ago? ... championing the cause of more nuclear energy plants in the US, and drilling and collecting known huge oil reserves in ANWR, and in the deep water off the coasts of Florida and California? No, I didn't think so ... that would have been the increased Supply side of the equation. He was ranting against those moves, so he really has no intellectual ground to stand on here.
    ps - does he blame the huge runup in dry bulk shipping rates on Bush too? Michael - you can't claim, out of both sides of your mouth at the same time, that 1) Bush is an idiot, and 2) that he's smart enough to be manipulating the entire global economy and all of its players. Puhleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeze.     Reply
  • commenter
    Kezorm
    May 31 11:08 PM
    In Light of Peak Oil, Financial Diversification Is a Bad Idea [view article]
    Hmmm. The S&P 500.... While I am very long oil and minerals, I strongly suspect that the S&P 500 might be a sleeping giant about to awaken. If you look at USA manufacturers who have been profitable in the past few years, just imagine how further declines in the value of the dollar will provide a hurricane-like tailwind. Anyone who recalls the Bucyrus-Erie company in the 1960's would probably classify it as a quintessential rust-belt company. But look at it today! And realize that Milwaukee/Southern Wisconsin has dozens more companies just like that one. So, the falling dollar is not all bad. It just might be restoring an imbalance that sent too many jobs overseas. In fact, when viewed in that weird glow of the falling dollar, the diverse and dynamic USA economy begins to look more and more like Brazil... After all, we have great mineral wealth, monster agriculture, high-tech, excellent infrastructure, and probably also a bounty of energy supplies that have been wisely protected from development under a probably false ecological pretense. So, keep a keen eye on the S&P 500 and especially those that export goods. As the dollar sets, it may rise.

     Reply
  • commenter
    Brian
    Pursley
    May 31 10:49 PM
    My Website
    In Light of Peak Oil, Financial Diversification Is a Bad Idea [view article]
    Dave: Likewise long. NOV, RIG, PBR, PKX (especially if they get Daewoo Shipbuilding) obvious winners. HAL and BHI cheap compared to SLB imo. Reply
  • commenter
    blah-blah
    May 31 10:45 PM
    In Light of Peak Oil, Financial Diversification Is a Bad Idea [view article]
    richjoy nailed it and I second everything he says

    Follow the author and the fools who agree at your own detriment...     Reply
  • commenter
    khwender
    May 31 10:40 PM
    An Energy Policy That Makes Sense, Revisited [view article]
    If you believe in peak oil(which I do, why don't you uso and ung? Reply
  • commenter
    DaveinHacken
    sack
    May 31 09:12 PM
    My Website
    In Light of Peak Oil, Financial Diversification Is a Bad Idea [view article]
    Brian Pursley,

    You're right that the supply is low due mainly to political factors. You're also right that the world has plenty of oil. I agree with both of those premises of yours and I'm still bullish on oil, at least for the next 5-7 years. Why? Because it will probably take at least that long for supply increases to catch up with demand. A lot of these projects take years to get the oil flowing, and everyone won't be trading their car for a hybrid overnight.     Reply
  • commenter
    frflyer
    May 31 07:23 PM
    An Energy Policy That Makes Sense, Revisited [view article]
    A few comments about "Greenies" who many see as idealistic dreamers. Who do you think has been trying to get the rest of you to develop alternative energy and reduce our dependence on oil for well over 30 years? More like 40 years actually. Yes, there has been opposition to offshore drilling and ANWAR drilling, for well over 30 years, while no one else seemed to "get it".
    Don't blame us if no one has been listening for all those decades. Environmentalists have been labeled as kooks for all of those years and now that the chickens have come home to roost, some of you want to blame the messengers. We woke up decades ago. Where were you?

    Fitzman is right on that point. We , as a nation, have taken too long to become aware of the problem. If more had woken up earlier, we wouldn't be in such a mess now.
    Oh well.

    It's the oil industry, that lobbies to prevent alternatives from getting a head start. Yes, many oil companies now are pursuing alternatives, but it was their lobbying efforts that prevented the Dec 07 energy bill from taking 1/4 of their subsidies or $20 billion, which would have been used to extend tax credits for aternatives like solar and wind for eight more years. It was 40 Republican senators who stripped those provisions from the bill as well as blocking meaningful CAFE standards for cars. Of coure Dubbya would have vetoed it anyway.

    More solutions:

    Change much of our long distance freight hauling from trucks to trains. Trains are about 3 times as efficient.

    Sail assist for ships. Parasails that will save 10-30% of a ships fuel cost are available. They work and are cheap. A ship can be retrofitted for $250,000. That's about 2 days lease rate on a large bulk carrier. They provide 6800 horse power and work on any point of sail that a sailboat uses.

    Kiteship and Skysails are the two companies currently providing this technology.

    www.skysails.info/inde...

    www.kiteship.com/

    Some cities have found that free mass transit pays off in the long run. Many hidden costs are eliminated or reduced, making up for the loss of revenue. Ridership increases.

    Biomass to methane, from manure, sewage treatment and landfills. Kill two birds with one stone, preventing methane from becoming a greenhouse gas, and getting power out of it.

    "Wild Rose Dairy in Webster Township, WI is home to an innovative renewable energy facility powered by cow manure and other organic waste. The farm is home to 900 dairy cows, and an on-site anaerobic digester creates methane-rich biogas from their waste, which is used to generate 750 kilowatts of electricity per hour—enough to power 600 local homes 24/7."

    "Environmental Power’s Huckabay Ridge is the largest renewable natural gas plant in North America, if not the world. Huckabay Ridge generates methane-rich biogas from manure and other agricultural waste, conditions it to natural gas standards and distributes it through a commercial pipeline. The purified biogas, called RNG®, is generated by Environmental Power’s subsidiary, Microgy, and is a branded, renewable, pipeline quality methane product."
    Enviromental Power press releases.

    Wind is great, where conditions are right, like the great plains, great lakes area and parts of Texas. Wind will provide 180,000 miles of transportaton power per acre, but solar can produce 2 million miles of power per acre.

    "In the US, the American Wind Energy Association forecasts that installed capacity could grow from 11,603 MW today to around 100,000 MW by 2020. In Canada, Emerging Energy Research predicts that installed wind capacity will expand from around 1,500 MW today to around 14,000 MW by 2015."
    {from an article at altenergystocks.com by Charles Morand}

    What would also help a lot would be to wean ourselve from our consumerism economy. Watch the video called "The Story of Stuff" to see how wasteful it is.

    www.storyofstuff.com/

    For more on plug in hybrids go here.

    www.pluginpartners.org/

    www.logicalscience.com.../ - a list of promising energy technologies

    Bioplastics which are fairly new, could help solve the energy problem as well as a huge pollution problem. We use about 5-10% of our oil to make plastics. Then we throw most of them away and thus create massive polluton, with the oceans being particularly vulnerable. Check out what Metabolix is doing. They are the cutting edge in this new field.
    They can actually grow switchgrass with the plastic already in the leaves and stems, WITHOUT genetically engineering the plants. What is genetically engineered is the bacteria, which digests the corn starch and sugars to make PHA biloplastic.
    They can replace over half of existing plastics with bioplastics that are 100% compostable. In some cases the plastics have better properties than what they replace.

    To see what plastics are doing to the sea go here.
    www.algalita.org/resea...
    www.algalita.org/pelag...

    Reply
  • commenter
    gr8ideas
    May 31 06:23 PM
    In Light of Peak Oil, Financial Diversification Is a Bad Idea [view article]
    Yes ... let's forget about diversification. Clearly the entire financial world's got it wrong, and this author has it right.

    With every boom, with every cycle, someone stands up and says ... but this time it's different. We have a NEW economic standard, a new paradigm. And sooner or later, a normalized cycle returns to the world.

    Ultimately, this siren song gets repeated and repeated. Buy fertilizer! Buy oil refiners! Buy oil exploration! Buy alternative energy! Buy Internet stocks! Buy CDs! Buy Bonds! You'll never keep up with ravaging inflation/deflation/st... with that strategy!

    Here is a simple example of how far off this strategy is ... gold, as an investment, has failed to keep up with the S&P over any reasonable time period (normally defined as 10 years). If the goal for a portion of your portfolio is a hedge against inflation, why not simply invest in TIPS or US Treasuries?

    While there may well be merit in short term, overweighted holdings in gold/oil, there is no long term merit to it. If you are a speculator, I suppose Mr. Fitz's ideas might be reasonable. But the investment advisors support people with time frames of ten to thirty years - who are seeking performance without excess risk. There is no support for his ideas in such a time frame, and likely is why he doesn't offer them.





    Reply
  • commenter
    Brian
    Pursley
    May 31 06:19 PM
    My Website
    In Light of Peak Oil, Financial Diversification Is a Bad Idea [view article]
    All of this peak oil angst stems from not wanting to face life without a Hummer. Go ride a bike. Reply
  • commenter
    Brian
    Pursley
    May 31 06:15 PM
    My Website
    In Light of Peak Oil, Financial Diversification Is a Bad Idea [view article]
    Mr. Yetiv: "Question to you: If you add up depletion rates at Ghawar, Cantarell, and all the other fields in the world over the next 7 years (ie, by 2015), what does that total depletion add up to?"

    I figured you were going to tell me since you peak oil cultists know everything even though you don't trust any statistics. How should I know? I thought Saudi statistics can't be trusted. Those are only 2 fields and according to Matt Simmons Ghawar should've run out already. See here: peakoildebunked.blogsp...

    Anyway, who cares about Ghawar besides Matt Simmons and the Saudi Royal Family? I know I don't: peakoildebunked.blogsp...

    There are other oil fields, get over it: peakoildebunked.blogsp...     Reply
  • commenter
    phillips49
    May 31 04:57 PM
    In Light of Peak Oil, Financial Diversification Is a Bad Idea [view article]
    pearl2k,

    I doubt that military consumption of fuel in support of IRAQ will make much of a difference in global supply/demand.

    On a different note. The problems in this region go back 1000's of years. In my opinion, when America leaves, (if we can ever make a gracefull exit) the entire region will once again de-stablize into fighting factions and civil war. History is on the side of my opinion in that regard. Any de-stabilization in this region will push the price of oil out of sight. Dissidents believe in reign or ruin. This is demonstarated on a smaller scale in Nigeria and it's problems with rebels. The US gets about 10% of it's imported oil from Nigeria.     Reply
  • commenter
    pearl2k
    May 31 02:38 PM
    In Light of Peak Oil, Financial Diversification Is a Bad Idea [view article]
    Can anyone comment on the price/demand for oil and US consumption/Military consumption once this war ends? Reply
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