Wed, Mar. 18, 2:30 PM
- Worries about a sharply flatter yield curve abate just a bit as the FOMC drops "patient" from its policy statement - putting rate hikes on the table at subsequent meetings - but Fed economic projections send a dovish signal, with outlooks for economic growth, inflation, and the pace of rate hikes all cut from previous estimates.
- Outperforming the averages: Annaly Capital (NLY +1.1%), American Capital Agency (AGNC +1.5%), Two Harbors (TWO +1.5%), CYS Investments (CYS +2%), Invesco (IVR +1.7%), Hatteras (HTS +1.7%), Capstead (CMO +2.1%), MFA Financial (MFA +1.7%), Anworth (ANH +2.2%), Dynex (DX +1.5%), Five Oaks (OAKS +3.3%).
- ETFs: REM, MORT, MORL
- Previously: FOMC drops "patient," but sends dovish signal (March 18)
Fri, Mar. 6, 10:21 AM
- The 10-year Treasury yield has popped all the way to 2.24% (up 11 bps on the session) following the strong jobs report which saw 295K jobs added in February and the unemployment rate dropping to 5.5%.
- Checking short-term interest rate futures, they're falling (meaning higher rates), but still not pricing in a rate hike until late summer.
- Annaly Capital (NLY -1.3%), American Capital Agency (AGNC -0.6%), Two Harbors (TWO -1%), Armour (ARR -0.9%), Invesco (IVR -0.9%), CYS Investments (CYS -1.4%), Hatteras (HTS -1.1%), MFA Financial (MFA -1.1%), Western Asset (WMC -0.7%), Dynex (DX -1.2%), AG Mortgage (MITT -1.5%), Ellington Residential (EARN -1.1%).
- ETFs: REM, MORT, MORL
- Previously: Dollar and Treasury yields spike after strong jobs print (March 6)
Thu, Feb. 12, 12:03 PM
- CYS Investments (CYS +1.7%) was notable last year for its belief that long-term interest rates weren't heading higher, and its move to take a sizable long position in long-dated Treasury paper. Adding together dividends and the gain in book value in 2014, CYS posted a ROE of 27%, including 6.51% in Q4 (reported last night).
- Speaking on the earnings call (transcript), CEO Kevin Grant notes 10-year U.S. Treasurys continue to look cheap compared to European and Japanese paper.
- Management, however, is working under the assumption that the Fed is "really desperate to get out of ZIRP," and cautions investors to expect thinner spreads and maybe a smaller dividend going forward. On the other hand, Fed tightening could cause bond market disruptions, and CYS has ample dry powder ready to get put to work.
- Previously: CYS Investments income and book value grow in Q4 (Feb. 11)
Tue, Feb. 3, 3:52 PM
- Unable to put any sort of positive move together even as interest rates tumbled this year, mREITs (REM +0.9%) are uniformly higher this session as the 10-year yield jumps 11 basis points to 1.78%.
- American Capital Agency (AGNC +1.3%) reported better-than-hoped Q4 results last night, but has altered its mix of portfolio holdings and hedges to brace for what it expects will be a wave of prepayments. If rates keep this up, those prepayments may not materialize.
- Annaly (NLY +1.1%), Chimera (CIM +1.5%), CYS Investments (CYS +1.3%), American Capital Mortgage (MTGE +1.8%), Hatteras (HTS +1.1%), MFA Financial (MFA +1.3%), Western Asset (WMC +1.8%), Dynex (DX +1.1%), Ellington Financial (EFC +1.2%).
Mon, Feb. 2, 2:52 PM
- "The combination of a negative duration and relatively long dated hedges lead to book value underperformance in a flat curve environment," merits a downgrade to Underperfrom for Armour Residential (ARR -5.9%), says analyst Doug Harter.
- "With above-average economic return volatility we expect CYS Investments (CYS -2.8%) to continue to have one of the lower price to book multiples among the Agency-only REITs," he says, also cutting to Underperform.
- Tight credit spreads combining with low yields will make it tough for New York Mortgage Trust (NYMT -2.2%) to meaningfully expand core EPS enough to cover the dividend, says Harter, cutting that stock to Underperform. He also notes NYMT has the highest price-to-book ratio in his mREIT coverage universe.
- Harter and team, however, still see some attractive values given the 12.9% discount to book the sector is selling for. PennyMac Mortgage Investment (PMT +0.2%), Two Harbors (TWO -0.7%) and New Residential (NRZ -1.6%) remain among top picks (though PMT and especially NRZ can hardly be considered mREITs).
- Previously: Credit Suisse downgrades three mortgage REITs (Feb. 2)
- Previously: JPMorgan previews Q4 for mREITs (Feb. 2)
Mon, Feb. 2, 7:33 AM
- Armour Residential (ARR -1.5%), CYS Investments (CYS -0.6%), and New York Mortgage Trust (NYMT -1.4%) are all downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse.
- The details aren't yet available, but the team is no doubt eyeing the sharp flattening in the yield curve of late, and what that might do to earnings power going forward. Also, the sharp drop in bond yields could set the stage for a jump in refinancing, and thus prepayments.
- As for valuation, both Armour and CYS trade at sizable discounts to their last reported (Sept. 30) book value, while NYMT sells for a premium - a rarity in mREIT land these days.
- ARR is the only mover premarket, -2.4%.
Tue, Jan. 6, 2:17 PM
- The 10-year yield has plunged all the way down to 1.94% and one would figure on some nice increases in book value for the mortgage REITs (REM -0.1%), but on the flip side are narrowing interest rate spreads (especially as the Fed still seems to be intent on hiking short rates), and what hedging losses the companies are taking.
- Other ETFs: MORT, MORL
- Individual names: Annaly Capital (NLY +0.4%), American Capital Agency (AGNC), Armour Residential (ARR -1%), CYS Investments (CYS -0.2%), Invesco Mortgage (IVZ -2.7%), New York Mortgage Trust (NYMT -0.5%), Hatteras Financial (HTS -0.3%), Western Asset Mortgage (WMC -2.7%), Ellington Residential (EARN -0.4%), Javelin Mortgage (JMI -3%).
Mon, Jan. 5, 4:01 PM
- Equity REITs are green across the board, and mortgage REITs and BDCs are showing some (but not a ton of) gains as the broader markets tumble to start the week.
- A sampling: Realty Income (O +2.1%), Omega Healthcare (OHI +1.6%), Medical Properties Trust (MPW +2.4%), Equity Residential (EQR +0.9%), General Growth Properties (GGP +0.7%), Kimco (KIM +0.9%), Public Storage (PSA +0.5%), CYS Investments (CYS +0.5%), Solar Capital (SLRC +1.1%).
Dec. 9, 2014, 12:57 PM
- Unable to catch a bid for a few sessions, mortgage REITs (REM +1%) have turned higher in afternoon action, led by Annaly (NLY +0.7%) and American Capital Agency (AGNC +1.5%).
- Helping are jitters in the stock market (though U.S. averages are well off the lows), and a 10-year Treasury yield that's retreated all the way to 2.21% after hitting the mid-2.30s on the back of Friday's strong jobs number.
- Armour (ARR +1.1%), Two Harbors (TWO +0.9%), CYS Investments (CYS +1.4%), Invesco (IVR +1.8%), American Capital Mortgage (MTGE +1%), Hatteras Financial (HTS +2%), Capstead (CMO +2%).
- Other ETFs: MORT, MORL
- Also showing some green are the recently beaten-up BDCs, including Prospect Capital (PSEC +0.2%), Fifth Street Finance (FSC +0.2%), Ares Capital (ARCC +0.5%), FS Investment (FSIC), Triangle Capital (TCAP +1.7%).
- ETFs: BDCL, BDCS, BIZD
- Previously: Money flows back into fixed income (Dec. 9, 2014)
Nov. 19, 2014, 3:42 PM
- A check of the mortgage REITs following FOMC minutes which shows the discussion moving a bit more seriously towards rate hikes finds the sector (REM -0.5%) modestly lower.
- Individual names: Annaly (NLY -0.3%), American Capital Agency (AGNC), CYS Investments (CYS -0.3%), Invesco Mortgage (IVR -0.9%), New York Mortgage Trust (NYMT -0.4%), Hatteras Financial (HTS -0.8%), MFA Financial (MFA -1%), Capsteam Mortgage (CMO -0.6%), Ellington Residential (EARN -0.4%).
Oct. 21, 2014, 9:32 AM
- All this talk over the last few days about a material loosening coming in mortgage standards is a whole lot of nothing, says CYS Investments (NYSE:CYS) CEO Kevin Grant, speaking on the earnings call. As far as he knows, the CFPB hasn't signed on to even a little bit of the FHFA plan to try and ease underwriting standards, and Grant has no reason to expect the agency will budge.
- The CFPB's mandate - he reminds - is to limit risk, so why would it do anything but allow only essentially perfect credits to get mortgages.
- Asked about whether CYS is ready to deploy its buyback authorization, Grant says the best place to put capital to work right now is in the "cheap" mortgage market. He notes CYS put $1.5B to work in mortgages in Q3.
- As for the tumult of the last couple of weeks, Grants notes the thin trading desks and inventories at the big banks mean big moves in prices during such dislocations, and CYS is happy to step in as a buyer during these events.
- CYS is lower by 1.2% in early action as core earnings dipped last quarter - just covering the dividend - and book value dropped a bit.
- Previously: CYS boosts exposure to mortgages
Oct. 13, 2014, 4:19 PM
- Both equity and mortgage REITs saw plenty of buying as nearly all of the rest of the market was lit up bright red, and Treasury ETFs signaled a sharp drop in yields when government bonds reopen for trade tomorrow (closed this session for Columbus Day).
- A sampling of equity names: Senior Housing Properties (SNH +1.2%), Medical Properties Trust (MPW +1.4%), Gramercy Property Trust (GPT +1.7%), Equity Residential (EQR +0.7%), Inland Real Estate (IRC +0.9%), Sovran Self Storage (SSS +1.1%), Highwoods Properties Trust (HIW +1%).
- One equity REIT sector in the red along with the rest of the market is lodging amid worsening Ebola fears: Ashford Hospitality Trust (AHT -2.9%), Sunshine Hotel Investors (SHO -1.4%), LaSalle Hotel Properties (LHO -1.5%), Summit Hotel Properties (INN -1.5%).
- Mortgage REITs: American Capital Agency (AGNC +1.4%), CYS Investments (CYS +2.2%), Invesco (IVR +1.1%), American Capital Mortgage (MTGE +1.5%), Western Asset (WMC +1.1%).
- ETFs: IYR, VNQ, REM, MORL, MORT, DRN, URE, REZ, SRS, RWR, SCHH, ICF, ROOF, DRV, KBWY, RTL, REK, FRI, FTY, PSR, IFNA, FNIO, WREI
Oct. 9, 2014, 10:40 AM
- It's been a good week for mortgage REITs (REM +0.7%) which rose on Tuesday as the broad market tumbled and brought yields down with it, rose more on Wednesday, this time alongside a major broad market rally on dovish FOMC minutes, and are on the move higher again today as the averages again head south.
- Down to 2.28% earlier in the session (a 16-month low), the 10-year Treasury yield is now flat on the day at 2.32%.
- This week's strong move comes following a tough September in which the mREITs gave back a nice chunk of their YTD gains.
- Annaly (NLY +1.2%) is up nearly 5% over the last four sessions. American Capital Agency (AGNC +1.5%) is ahead more than 6%.
- Others: Armour (ARR +1%), Chimera (CIM +1%), CYS Investments (CYS +1.2%), New York Mortgage (NYMT +1.3%), Anworth (ANH +0.8%), Dynex (DX +1%), Javelin (JMI +1.5%), Five Oaks (OAKS +0.9%).
- Other ETFs: MORT, MORL
Oct. 7, 2014, 11:12 AM
- Sector giants Annaly Capital (NLY +1.2%) and American Capital Agency (AGNC +1%) are pacing gains in the mortgage REIT sector (REM +0.3%) on a day when the major averages are lower by about 0.75% and the 10-year yield at 2.39% has about erased all of its big post-Labor Day gain.
- Additional ETFs: MORT, MORL
- Among other names, there's CYS Investments (CYS +0.5%) - whose management has been the most publicly skeptical of the higher interest rates meme.
Sep. 30, 2014, 3:05 PM
- Many in the sector (REM -0.9%) presented today at the JMP Financial Services and Real Estate Conference. Those heard in full by this reporter - CYS Investments (CYS -1.6%), Hatteras Financial (HTS -0.9%), and MFA Financial (MFA -1.3%) - presented nothing alarming, but the sector is nevertheless lit up bright red.
- Other presenters included Capstead Mortgage (CMO -1.2%), Arlington Asset (AI -2.2%), Dynex Capital (DX -1.7%), Invesco (IVR -1.2%), Armour (ARR -2%), New York Mortgage Trust (NYMT -3.2%), Javelin Mortgage (JMI -1.5%), Five Oaks Investment (OAKS -1.9%), and Apollo Residential (AMTG -1.1%).
- Related ETFs: MORT, MORL
- Previously: CYS's Grant not buying hawkish ideas from Fed
- Previously: Hatteras updates on Q3 at conference
- Previously: MFA Financial positions for further housing improvement
Sep. 17, 2014, 2:51 PM
- Another $10B taper this month brings QE to just $5B monthly, an amount the FOMC expects to go down to zero with its next policy meeting. The "dots" shifted somewhat higher - meaning maybe a slightly earlier start to Fed rate hikes and a higher level of Fed Funds at the end of the next few years, with the median forecast being 2.9% at the end of 2016.
- Mortgage REITs (REM +0.2%) have been under pressure in the sessions ahead of the FOMC, and are mostly snoozing through today's news.
- Annaly (NLY -0.1%), American Capital Agency (AGNC +0.1%), CYS Investments (CYS +0.2%), New York Mortgage Trust (NYMT +0.5%), Dynex (DX +0.8%), Ellington Residential (EARN +1.2%), Javelin (JMI +1.3%).
- Previously: FOMC statement and projections lean hawkish
- Previously: Yellen press conference: Falling UE rate still masking labor market weakness
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